Network meta-analysis allows the synthesis of relative effects from several treatments. Two broad approaches are available to synthesize the data: arm-synthesis and contrast-synthesis, with several models that can be fitted within each. Limited evaluations comparing these approaches are available. We re-analyzed 118 networks of interventions with binary outcomes using three contrast-synthesis models (CSM; one fitted in a frequentist framework and two in a Bayesian framework) and two arm-synthesis models (ASM; both fitted in a Bayesian framework). We compared the estimated log odds ratios, their standard errors, ranking measures and the between-trial heterogeneity using the different models and investigated if differences in the results were modified by network characteristics. In general, we observed good agreement with respect to the odds ratios, their standard errors and the ranking metrics between the two Bayesian CSMs. However, differences were observed when comparing the frequentist CSM and the ASMs to each other and to the Bayesian CSMs. The network characteristics that we investigated, which represented the connectedness of the networks and rareness of events, were associated with the differences observed between models, but no single factor was associated with the differences across all of the metrics. In conclusion, we found that different models used to synthesize evidence in a network meta-analysis (NMA) can yield different estimates of odds ratios and standard errors that can impact the final ranking of the treatment options compared.

The Automated Meteorology—Ice—Geophysics Observation System 3 (AMIGOS-3) is a multi-sensor on-ice ocean mooring and weather, camera and precision GPS measurement station, controlled by a Python script. The station is designed to be deployed on floating ice in the polar regions and operate unattended for up to several years. Ocean mooring sensors (SeaBird MicroCAT and Nortek Aquadopp) record conductivity, temperature and depth (reported at 10 min intervals), and current velocity (hourly intervals). A Silixa XT fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing system provides a temperature profile time-series through the ice and ocean column with a cadence of 6 d−1 to 1 week−1 depending on available station power. A subset of the station data is telemetered by Iridium modem. Two-way communication, using both single-burst data and file transfer protocols, facilitates station data collection changes and power management. Power is supplied by solar panels and a sealed lead-acid battery system. Two AMIGOS-3 systems were installed on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf in January 2020, providing data well into 2022. We discuss the components of the system and present several of the data sets, summarizing observed climate, ice and ocean conditions.

The present paper proposes a hierarchical, multi-unidimensional two-parameter logistic item response theory (2PL-MUIRT) model extended for a large number of groups. The proposed model was motivated by a large-scale integrative data analysis (IDA) study which combined data (N = 24,336) from 24 independent alcohol intervention studies. IDA projects face unique challenges that are different from those encountered in individual studies, such as the need to establish a common scoring metric across studies and to handle missingness in the pooled data. To address these challenges, we developed a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for a hierarchical 2PL-MUIRT model for multiple groups in which not only were the item parameters and latent traits estimated, but the means and covariance structures for multiple dimensions were also estimated across different groups. Compared to a few existing MCMC algorithms for multidimensional IRT models that constrain the item parameters to facilitate estimation of the covariance matrix, we adapted an MCMC algorithm so that we could directly estimate the correlation matrix for the anchor group without any constraints on the item parameters. The feasibility of the MCMC algorithm and the validity of the basic calibration procedure were examined using a simulation study. Results showed that model parameters could be adequately recovered, and estimated latent trait scores closely approximated true latent trait scores. The algorithm was then applied to analyze real data (69 items across 20 studies for 22,608 participants). The posterior predictive model check showed that the model fit all items well, and the correlations between the MCMC scores and original scores were overall quite high. An additional simulation study demonstrated robustness of the MCMC procedures in the context of the high proportion of missingness in data. The Bayesian hierarchical IRT model using the MCMC algorithms developed in the current study has the potential to be widely implemented for IDA studies or multi-site studies, and can be further refined to meet more complicated needs in applied research.

We describe the scientific goals and survey design of the First Large Absorption Survey in H i (FLASH), a wide field survey for 21-cm line absorption in neutral atomic hydrogen (H i) at intermediate cosmological redshifts. FLASH will be carried out with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) radio telescope and is planned to cover the sky south of $\delta \approx +40\,\deg$ at frequencies between 711.5 and 999.5 MHz. At redshifts between $z = 0.4$ and $1.0$ (look-back times of 4 – 8 Gyr), the H i content of the Universe has been poorly explored due to the difficulty of carrying out radio surveys for faint 21-cm line emission and, at ultra-violet wavelengths, space-borne searches for Damped Lyman-$\alpha$ absorption in quasar spectra. The ASKAP wide field of view and large spectral bandwidth, in combination with a radio-quiet site, will enable a search for absorption lines in the radio spectra of bright continuum sources over 80% of the sky. This survey is expected to detect at least several hundred intervening 21-cm absorbers and will produce an H i-absorption-selected catalogue of galaxies rich in cool, star-forming gas, some of which may be concealed from optical surveys. Likewise, at least several hundred associated 21-cm absorbers are expected to be detected within the host galaxies of radio sources at $0.4 < z < 1.0$, providing valuable kinematical information for models of gas accretion and jet-driven feedback in radio-loud active galactic nuclei. FLASH will also detect OH 18-cm absorbers in diffuse molecular gas, megamaser OH emission, radio recombination lines, and stacked H i emission.

We present the most sensitive and detailed view of the neutral hydrogen (${\rm H\small I}$) emission associated with the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), through the combination of data from the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) and Parkes (Murriyang), as part of the Galactic Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (GASKAP) pilot survey. These GASKAP-HI pilot observations, for the first time, reveal ${\rm H\small I}$ in the SMC on similar physical scales as other important tracers of the interstellar medium, such as molecular gas and dust. The resultant image cube possesses an rms noise level of 1.1 K ($1.6\,\mathrm{mJy\ beam}^{-1}$) $\mathrm{per}\ 0.98\,\mathrm{km\ s}^{-1}$ spectral channel with an angular resolution of $30^{\prime\prime}$ (${\sim}10\,\mathrm{pc}$). We discuss the calibration scheme and the custom imaging pipeline that utilises a joint deconvolution approach, efficiently distributed across a computing cluster, to accurately recover the emission extending across the entire ${\sim}25\,\mathrm{deg}^2$ field-of-view. We provide an overview of the data products and characterise several aspects including the noise properties as a function of angular resolution and the represented spatial scales by deriving the global transfer function over the full spectral range. A preliminary spatial power spectrum analysis on individual spectral channels reveals that the power law nature of the density distribution extends down to scales of 10 pc. We highlight the scientific potential of these data by comparing the properties of an outflowing high-velocity cloud with previous ASKAP+Parkes ${\rm H\small I}$ test observations.

The Variables and Slow Transients Survey (VAST) on the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) is designed to detect highly variable and transient radio sources on timescales from 5 s to $\sim\!5$ yr. In this paper, we present the survey description, observation strategy and initial results from the VAST Phase I Pilot Survey. This pilot survey consists of $\sim\!162$ h of observations conducted at a central frequency of 888 MHz between 2019 August and 2020 August, with a typical rms sensitivity of $0.24\ \mathrm{mJy\ beam}^{-1}$ and angular resolution of $12-20$ arcseconds. There are 113 fields, each of which was observed for 12 min integration time, with between 5 and 13 repeats, with cadences between 1 day and 8 months. The total area of the pilot survey footprint is 5 131 square degrees, covering six distinct regions of the sky. An initial search of two of these regions, totalling 1 646 square degrees, revealed 28 highly variable and/or transient sources. Seven of these are known pulsars, including the millisecond pulsar J2039–5617. Another seven are stars, four of which have no previously reported radio detection (SCR J0533–4257, LEHPM 2-783, UCAC3 89–412162 and 2MASS J22414436–6119311). Of the remaining 14 sources, two are active galactic nuclei, six are associated with galaxies and the other six have no multi-wavelength counterparts and are yet to be identified.

Heterogeneity in the number of secondary tuberculosis (TB) cases per source case, the effective reproductive number, R, is important in modelling prevention strategies' impact on incidence.

We estimated mean R (Rm) and calculate the dispersion parameter of this distribution, k, using surveillance and genotyping data for U.S. cases during 2009–2018. We modelled transmission assuming cases in a cluster have matching genotypes and share characteristics related to geography, temporal proximity (i.e. serial interval) and time since U.S. arrival among non-U.S.-born persons.

Complete data were available for 55 330/85 958 cases. Varying the serial interval and geographic proximity used to derive clusters, we consistently estimated Rm<1.0 and k < 0.08; the low value of k indicates a small number of source cases produce a disproportionate number of secondary cases.

U.S. TB reproductive number has a highly skewed distribution, indicating a minority of source cases disproportionately contribute to transmission.

The GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky Murchison Widefield Array (GLEAM) is a radio continuum survey at 76–227 MHz of the entire southern sky (Declination $<\!{+}30^{\circ}$) with an angular resolution of ${\approx}2$ arcmin. In this paper, we combine GLEAM data with optical spectroscopy from the 6dF Galaxy Survey to construct a sample of 1 590 local (median $z \approx 0.064$) radio sources with $S_{200\,\mathrm{MHz}} > 55$ mJy across an area of ${\approx}16\,700\,\mathrm{deg}^{2}$. From the optical spectra, we identify the dominant physical process responsible for the radio emission from each galaxy: 73% are fuelled by an active galactic nucleus (AGN) and 27% by star formation. We present the local radio luminosity function for AGN and star-forming (SF) galaxies at 200 MHz and characterise the typical radio spectra of these two populations between 76 MHz and ${\sim}1$ GHz. For the AGN, the median spectral index between 200 MHz and ${\sim}1$ GHz, $\alpha_{\mathrm{high}}$, is $-0.600 \pm 0.010$ (where $S \propto \nu^{\alpha}$) and the median spectral index within the GLEAM band, $\alpha_{\mathrm{low}}$, is $-0.704 \pm 0.011$. For the SF galaxies, the median value of $\alpha_{\mathrm{high}}$ is $-0.650 \pm 0.010$ and the median value of $\alpha_{\mathrm{low}}$ is $-0.596 \pm 0.015$. Among the AGN population, flat-spectrum sources are more common at lower radio luminosity, suggesting the existence of a significant population of weak radio AGN that remain core-dominated even at low frequencies. However, around 4% of local radio AGN have ultra-steep radio spectra at low frequencies ($\alpha_{\mathrm{low}} < -1.2$). These ultra-steep-spectrum sources span a wide range in radio luminosity, and further work is needed to clarify their nature.

The inaugural data from the first systematic program of sea-ice observations in Kotzebue Sound, Alaska, in 2018 coincided with the first winter in living memory when the Sound was not choked with ice. The following winter of 2018–19 was even warmer and characterized by even less ice. Here we discuss the mass balance of landfast ice near Kotzebue (Qikiqtaġruk) during these two anomalously warm winters. We use in situ observations and a 1-D thermodynamic model to address three research questions developed in partnership with an Indigenous Advisory Council. In doing so, we improve our understanding of connections between landfast ice mass balance, marine mammals and subsistence hunting. Specifically, we show: (i) ice growth stopped unusually early due to strong vertical ocean heat flux, which also likely contributed to early start to bearded seal hunting; (ii) unusually thin ice contributed to widespread surface flooding. The associated snow ice formation partly offset the reduced ice growth, but the flooding likely had a negative impact on ringed seal habitat; (iii) sea ice near Kotzebue during the winters of 2017–18 and 2018–19 was likely the thinnest since at least 1945, driven by a combination of warm air temperatures and a persistent ocean heat flux.

The first demonstration of laser action in ruby was made in 1960 by T. H. Maiman of Hughes Research Laboratories, USA. Many laboratories worldwide began the search for lasers using different materials, operating at different wavelengths. In the UK, academia, industry and the central laboratories took up the challenge from the earliest days to develop these systems for a broad range of applications. This historical review looks at the contribution the UK has made to the advancement of the technology, the development of systems and components and their exploitation over the last 60 years.

In this paper, we describe the system design and capabilities of the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) radio telescope at the conclusion of its construction project and commencement of science operations. ASKAP is one of the first radio telescopes to deploy phased array feed (PAF) technology on a large scale, giving it an instantaneous field of view that covers $31\,\textrm{deg}^{2}$ at $800\,\textrm{MHz}$. As a two-dimensional array of 36$\times$12 m antennas, with baselines ranging from 22 m to 6 km, ASKAP also has excellent snapshot imaging capability and 10 arcsec resolution. This, combined with 288 MHz of instantaneous bandwidth and a unique third axis of rotation on each antenna, gives ASKAP the capability to create high dynamic range images of large sky areas very quickly. It is an excellent telescope for surveys between 700 and $1800\,\textrm{MHz}$ and is expected to facilitate great advances in our understanding of galaxy formation, cosmology, and radio transients while opening new parameter space for discovery of the unknown.

Skousen and Aiuvalasit critique our article on the post-Mississippian occupation of the Horseshoe Lake watershed (White et al. 2020) along two lines: (1) that our findings are not supported due to a lack of archaeological evidence, and (2) that we do not consider alternative hypotheses in explaining the lake's fecal stanol record. We first respond to the matter of fecal stanol deposition in Horseshoe Lake and then address the larger issue, the primacy of archaeological data in interpreting the past.

Late Cretaceous tracks attributable to deinonychosaurs in North America are rare, with only one occurrence of Menglongipus from Alaska and two possible, but indeterminate, occurrences reported from Mexico. Here we describe the first probable deinonychosaur tracks from Canada: a possible trackway and one isolated track on a single horizon from the Upper Cretaceous Wapiti Formation (upper Campanian) near Grande Prairie in Alberta. The presence of a relatively short digit IV differentiates these from argued dromaeosaurid tracks, suggesting the trackmaker was more likely a troodontid. Other noted characteristics of the Wapiti specimens include a rounded heel margin, the absence of a digit II proximal pad impression, and a broad, elliptical digit III. Monodactyl tracks occur in association with the didactyl tracks, mirroring similar discoveries from the Early Cretaceous Epoch of China, providing additional support for their interpretation as deinonychosaurian traces. Although we refrain from assigning the new Wapiti specimens to any ichnotaxon because of their relatively poor undertrack preservation, this discovery is an important addition to the deinonychosaur track record; it helps to fill a poorly represented geographic and temporal window in their known distribution, and demonstrates the presence of a greater North American deinonychosaur ichnodiversity than has previously been recognized.

The Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS) is the first large-area survey to be conducted with the full 36-antenna Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope. RACS will provide a shallow model of the ASKAP sky that will aid the calibration of future deep ASKAP surveys. RACS will cover the whole sky visible from the ASKAP site in Western Australia and will cover the full ASKAP band of 700–1800 MHz. The RACS images are generally deeper than the existing NRAO VLA Sky Survey and Sydney University Molonglo Sky Survey radio surveys and have better spatial resolution. All RACS survey products will be public, including radio images (with $\sim$ 15 arcsec resolution) and catalogues of about three million source components with spectral index and polarisation information. In this paper, we present a description of the RACS survey and the first data release of 903 images covering the sky south of declination $+41^\circ$ made over a 288-MHz band centred at 887.5 MHz.