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Multicenter clinical trials are essential for evaluating interventions but often face significant challenges in study design, site coordination, participant recruitment, and regulatory compliance. To address these issues, the National Institutes of Health’s National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences established the Trial Innovation Network (TIN). The TIN offers a scientific consultation process, providing access to clinical trial and disease experts who provide input and recommendations throughout the trial’s duration, at no cost to investigators. This approach aims to improve trial design, accelerate implementation, foster interdisciplinary teamwork, and spur innovations that enhance multicenter trial quality and efficiency. The TIN leverages resources of the Clinical and Translational Science Awards (CTSA) program, complementing local capabilities at the investigator’s institution. The Initial Consultation process focuses on the study’s scientific premise, design, site development, recruitment and retention strategies, funding feasibility, and other support areas. As of 6/1/2024, the TIN has provided 431 Initial Consultations to increase efficiency and accelerate trial implementation by delivering customized support and tailored recommendations. Across a range of clinical trials, the TIN has developed standardized, streamlined, and adaptable processes. We describe these processes, provide operational metrics, and include a set of lessons learned for consideration by other trial support and innovation networks.
Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been associated with advanced epigenetic age cross-sectionally, but the association between these variables over time is unclear. This study conducted meta-analyses to test whether new-onset PTSD diagnosis and changes in PTSD symptom severity over time were associated with changes in two metrics of epigenetic aging over two time points.
Methods
We conducted meta-analyses of the association between change in PTSD diagnosis and symptom severity and change in epigenetic age acceleration/deceleration (age-adjusted DNA methylation age residuals as per the Horvath and GrimAge metrics) using data from 7 military and civilian cohorts participating in the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium PTSD Epigenetics Workgroup (total N = 1,367).
Results
Meta-analysis revealed that the interaction between Time 1 (T1) Horvath age residuals and new-onset PTSD over time was significantly associated with Horvath age residuals at T2 (meta β = 0.16, meta p = 0.02, p-adj = 0.03). The interaction between T1 Horvath age residuals and changes in PTSD symptom severity over time was significantly related to Horvath age residuals at T2 (meta β = 0.24, meta p = 0.05). No associations were observed for GrimAge residuals.
Conclusions
Results indicated that individuals who developed new-onset PTSD or showed increased PTSD symptom severity over time evidenced greater epigenetic age acceleration at follow-up than would be expected based on baseline age acceleration. This suggests that PTSD may accelerate biological aging over time and highlights the need for intervention studies to determine if PTSD treatment has a beneficial effect on the aging methylome.
Fully relativistic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations are crucial for advancing our knowledge of plasma physics. Modern supercomputers based on graphics processing units (GPUs) offer the potential to perform PIC simulations of unprecedented scale, but require robust and feature-rich codes that can fully leverage their computational resources. In this work, this demand is addressed by adding GPU acceleration to the PIC code Osiris. An overview of the algorithm, which features a CUDA extension to the underlying Fortran architecture, is given. Detailed performance benchmarks for thermal plasmas are presented, which demonstrate excellent weak scaling on NERSC's Perlmutter supercomputer and high levels of absolute performance. The robustness of the code to model a variety of physical systems is demonstrated via simulations of Weibel filamentation and laser-wakefield acceleration run with dynamic load balancing. Finally, measurements and analysis of energy consumption are provided that indicate that the GPU algorithm is up to ${\sim }$14 times faster and $\sim$7 times more energy efficient than the optimized CPU algorithm on a node-to-node basis. The described development addresses the PIC simulation community's computational demands both by contributing a robust and performant GPU-accelerated PIC code and by providing insight into efficient use of GPU hardware.
Educational attainment (EduA) is correlated with life outcomes, and EduA itself is influenced by both cognitive and non-cognitive factors. A recent study performed a ‘genome-wide association study (GWAS) by subtraction,’ subtracting genetic effects for cognitive performance from an educational attainment GWAS to create orthogonal ‘cognitive’ and ‘non-cognitive’ factors. These cognitive and non-cognitive factors showed associations with behavioral health outcomes in adults; however, whether these correlations are present during childhood is unclear.
Methods
Using data from up to 5517 youth (ages 9–11) of European ancestry from the ongoing Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM Study, we examined associations between polygenic scores (PGS) for cognitive and non-cognitive factors and cognition, risk tolerance, decision-making & personality, substance initiation, psychopathology, and brain structure (e.g. volume, fractional anisotropy [FA]). Within-sibling analyses estimated whether observed genetic associations may be consistent with direct genetic effects.
Results
Both PGSs were associated with greater cognition and lower impulsivity, drive, and severity of psychotic-like experiences. The cognitive PGS was also associated with greater risk tolerance, increased odds of choosing delayed reward, and decreased likelihood of ADHD and bipolar disorder; the non-cognitive PGS was associated with lack of perseverance and reward responsiveness. Cognitive PGS were more strongly associated with larger regional cortical volumes; non-cognitive PGS were more strongly associated with higher FA. All associations were characterized by small effects.
Conclusions
While the small sizes of these associations suggest that they are not effective for prediction within individuals, cognitive and non-cognitive PGS show unique associations with phenotypes in childhood at the population level.
Panic disorder (PD) and agoraphobia (AG) are highly comorbid anxiety disorders with an increasing prevalence that have a significant clinical and public health impact but are not adequately recognized and treated. Although the current functional neuroimaging literature has documented a range of neural abnormalities in these disorders, primary studies are often not sufficiently powered and their findings have been inconsistent.
Objectives
This meta-analysis aims to advance our understanding of the neural underpinnings of PD and AG by identifying the most robust patterns of differential neural activation that differentiate individuals diagnosed with one of or both these disorders from age-matched healthy controls.
Methods
We conducted a comprehensive literature search in the PubMed database for all peer-reviewed, whole-brain, task-based functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) activation studies that compared adults diagnosed with PD and/or AG with age-matched healthy controls. Each of these articles was screened by two independent coding teams using formal inclusion criteria and according to current PRISMA guidelines. We then performed a voxelwise, whole-brain, meta-analytic comparison of PD/AG participants with age-matched healthy controls using multilevel kernel density analysis (MKDA) with ensemble thresholding (p<0.05-0.0001) to minimize cluster size detection bias and 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to correct for multiple comparisons.
Results
With data from 34 primary studies and a substantial sample size (N=2138), PD/AG participants, relative to age-matched healthy controls, exhibited a reliable pattern of statistically significant, (p<.05-0.0001; FWE-corrected) abnormal neural activation in multiple brain regions of the cerebral cortex and basal ganglia across a variety of experimental tasks.
Conclusions
In this meta-analysis we found robust patterns of differential neural activation in participants diagnosed with PD/AG relative to age-matched healthy controls. These findings advance our understanding of the neural underpinnings of PD and AG and inform the development of brain-based clinical interventions such as non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS) and treatment prediction and matching algorithms. Future studies should also investigate the neural similarities and differences between PD and AG to increase our understanding of possible differences in their etiology, diagnosis, and treatment.
Although the link between alcohol involvement and behavioral phenotypes (e.g. impulsivity, negative affect, executive function [EF]) is well-established, the directionality of these associations, specificity to stages of alcohol involvement, and extent of shared genetic liability remain unclear. We estimate longitudinal associations between transitions among alcohol milestones, behavioral phenotypes, and indices of genetic risk.
Methods
Data came from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (n = 3681; ages 11–36). Alcohol transitions (first: drink, intoxication, alcohol use disorder [AUD] symptom, AUD diagnosis), internalizing, and externalizing phenotypes came from the Semi-Structured Assessment for the Genetics of Alcoholism. EF was measured with the Tower of London and Visual Span Tasks. Polygenic scores (PGS) were computed for alcohol-related and behavioral phenotypes. Cox models estimated associations among PGS, behavior, and alcohol milestones.
Results
Externalizing phenotypes (e.g. conduct disorder symptoms) were associated with future initiation and drinking problems (hazard ratio (HR)⩾1.16). Internalizing (e.g. social anxiety) was associated with hazards for progression from first drink to severe AUD (HR⩾1.55). Initiation and AUD were associated with increased hazards for later depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation (HR⩾1.38), and initiation was associated with increased hazards for future conduct symptoms (HR = 1.60). EF was not associated with alcohol transitions. Drinks per week PGS was linked with increased hazards for alcohol transitions (HR⩾1.06). Problematic alcohol use PGS increased hazards for suicidal ideation (HR = 1.20).
Conclusions
Behavioral markers of addiction vulnerability precede and follow alcohol transitions, highlighting dynamic, bidirectional relationships between behavior and emerging addiction.
Dual-systems models, positing an interaction between two distinct and competing systems (i.e. top-down self-control, and bottom-up reward- or emotion-based drive), provide a parsimonious framework for investigating the interplay between cortical and subcortical brain regions relevant to impulsive personality traits (IPTs) and their associations with psychopathology. Despite recent developments in multivariate analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), molecular genetic investigations of these models have not been conducted.
Methods
Using IPT GWAS, we conducted confirmatory genomic structural equation models (GenomicSEM) to empirically evaluate dual-systems models of the genetic architecture of IPTs. Genetic correlations between dual-systems factors and relevant cortical and subcortical neuroimaging phenotypes (regional/structural volume, cortical surface area, cortical thickness) were estimated and compared.
Results
GenomicSEM dual-systems models underscored important sources of shared and unique genetic variance between top-down and bottom-up constructs. Specifically, a dual-systems genomic model consisting of sensation seeking and lack of self-control factors demonstrated distinct but related sources of genetic influences (rg = 0.60). Genetic correlation analyses provided evidence of differential associations between dual-systems factors and cortical neuroimaging phenotypes (e.g. lack of self-control negatively associated with cortical thickness, sensation seeking positively associated with cortical surface area). No significant associations were observed with subcortical phenotypes.
Conclusions
Dual-systems models of the genetic architecture of IPTs tested were consistent with study hypotheses, but associations with relevant neuroimaging phenotypes were mixed (e.g. no associations with subcortical volumes). Findings demonstrate the utility of dual-systems models for studying IPT genetic influences, but also highlight potential limitations as a framework for interpreting IPTs as endophenotypes for psychopathology.
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Glioblastomas (GBMs) are heterogeneous, treatment-resistant tumors that are driven by populations of cancer stem cells (CSCs). In this study, we perform an epigenetic-focused functional genomics screen in GBM organoids and identify WDR5 as an essential epigenetic regulator in the SOX2-enriched, therapy resistant cancer stem cell niche. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Despite their importance for tumor growth, few molecular mechanisms critical for CSC population maintenance have been exploited for therapeutic development. We developed a spatially resolved loss-of-function screen in GBM patient-derived organoids to identify essential epigenetic regulators in the SOX2-enriched, therapy resistant niche. Our niche-specific screens identified WDR5, an H3K4 histone methyltransferase responsible for activating specific gene expression, as indispensable for GBM CSC growth and survival. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: In GBM CSC models, WDR5 inhibitors blocked WRAD complex assembly and reduced H3K4 trimethylation and expression of genes involved in CSC-relevant oncogenic pathways. H3K4me3 peaks lost with WDR5 inhibitor treatment occurred disproportionally on POU transcription factor motifs, required for stem cell maintenance and including the POU5F1(OCT4)::SOX2 motif. We incorporated a SOX2/OCT4 motif driven GFP reporter system into our CSC cell models and found that WDR5 inhibitor treatment resulted in dose-dependent silencing of stem cell reporter activity. Further, WDR5 inhibitor treatment altered the stem cell state, disrupting CSC in vitro growth and self-renewal as well as in vivo tumor growth. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results unveiled the role of WDR5 in maintaining the CSC state in GBM and provide a rationale for therapeutic development of WDR5 inhibitors for GBM and other advanced cancers. This conceptual and experimental framework can be applied to many cancers, and can unmask unique microenvironmental biology and rationally designed combination therapies.
Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are implicated in the increasing risk of diabetes in the Caribbean. Few studies have examined associations between SSB consumption and diabetes in the Caribbean.
Design:
SSB was measured as teaspoon/d using questions from the National Cancer Institute Dietary Screener Questionnaire about intake of soda, juice and coffee/tea during the past month. Diabetes was measured using self-report, HbA1C and use of medication. Logistic regression was used to examine associations.
Setting:
Baseline data from the Eastern Caribbean Health Outcomes Research Network Cohort Study (ECS), collected in Barbados, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago and US Virgin Islands, were used for analysis.
Participants:
Participants (n 1701) enrolled in the ECS.
Results:
Thirty-six percentage of participants were unaware of their diabetes, 33% aware and 31% normoglycaemic. Total mean intake of added sugar from SSB was higher among persons 40–49 (9·4 tsp/d), men (9·2 tsp/d) and persons with low education (7·0 tsp/d). Participants who were unaware (7·4 tsp/d) or did not have diabetes (7·6 tsp/d) had higher mean SSB intake compared to those with known diabetes (5·6 tsp/d). In multivariate analysis, total added sugar from beverages was not significantly associated with diabetes status. Results by beverage type showed consumption of added sugar from soda was associated with greater odds of known (OR = 1·37, 95 % CI (1·03, 1·82)) and unknown diabetes (OR = 1·54, 95 % CI (1·12, 2·13)).
Conclusions:
Findings indicate the need for continued implementation and evaluation of policies and interventions to reduce SSB consumption in the Caribbean.
Management of total anomalous pulmonary venous connections has been extensively studied to further improve outcomes. Our institution previously reported factors associated with mortality, recurrent obstruction, and reintervention. The study purpose was to revisit the cohort of patients and evaluate factors associated with reintervention, and mortality in early and late follow-up.
Methods:
A retrospective review at our institution identified 81 patients undergoing total anomalous pulmonary venous connection repair from January 2002 to January 2018. Demographic and operative variables were evaluated. Anastomotic reintervention (interventional or surgical) and/or mortality were primary endpoints.
Results:
Eighty-one patients met the study criteria. Follow-up ranged from 0 to 6,291 days (17.2 years), a mean of 1263 days (3.5 years). Surgical mortality was 16.1% and reintervention rates were 19.8%. In re-interventions performed, 80% occurred within 1.2 years, while 94% of mortalities were within 4.1 months. Increasing cardiopulmonary bypass times (p = 0.0001) and the presence of obstruction at the time of surgery (p = 0.025) were predictors of mortality, while intracardiac total anomalous pulmonary venous connection type (p = 0.033) was protective. Risk of reintervention was higher with increasing cardiopulmonary bypass times (p = 0.015), single ventricle anatomy (p = 0.02), and a post-repair gradient >2 mmHg on transesophageal echocardiogram (p = 0.009).
Conclusions:
Evaluation of a larger cohort with longer follow-up demonstrated the relationship of anatomic complexity and symptoms at presentation to increased mortality risk after total anomalous pulmonary venous connection repair. The presence of a single ventricle or a post-operative confluence gradient >2 mmHg were risk factors for reintervention. These findings support those found in our initial study.
Childhood adversities (CAs) predict heightened risks of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and major depressive episode (MDE) among people exposed to adult traumatic events. Identifying which CAs put individuals at greatest risk for these adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) is important for targeting prevention interventions.
Methods
Data came from n = 999 patients ages 18–75 presenting to 29 U.S. emergency departments after a motor vehicle collision (MVC) and followed for 3 months, the amount of time traditionally used to define chronic PTSD, in the Advancing Understanding of Recovery After Trauma (AURORA) study. Six CA types were self-reported at baseline: physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, physical neglect, emotional neglect and bullying. Both dichotomous measures of ever experiencing each CA type and numeric measures of exposure frequency were included in the analysis. Risk ratios (RRs) of these CA measures as well as complex interactions among these measures were examined as predictors of APNS 3 months post-MVC. APNS was defined as meeting self-reported criteria for either PTSD based on the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 and/or MDE based on the PROMIS Depression Short-Form 8b. We controlled for pre-MVC lifetime histories of PTSD and MDE. We also examined mediating effects through peritraumatic symptoms assessed in the emergency department and PTSD and MDE assessed in 2-week and 8-week follow-up surveys. Analyses were carried out with robust Poisson regression models.
Results
Most participants (90.9%) reported at least rarely having experienced some CA. Ever experiencing each CA other than emotional neglect was univariably associated with 3-month APNS (RRs = 1.31–1.60). Each CA frequency was also univariably associated with 3-month APNS (RRs = 1.65–2.45). In multivariable models, joint associations of CAs with 3-month APNS were additive, with frequency of emotional abuse (RR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.43–2.87) and bullying (RR = 1.44; 95% CI = 0.99–2.10) being the strongest predictors. Control variable analyses found that these associations were largely explained by pre-MVC histories of PTSD and MDE.
Conclusions
Although individuals who experience frequent emotional abuse and bullying in childhood have a heightened risk of experiencing APNS after an adult MVC, these associations are largely mediated by prior histories of PTSD and MDE.
Mental disorders are one of the largest contributors to the burden of disease globally, this holds also for children and adolescents, especially in low- and middle-income countries. The prevalence and severity of these disorders are influenced by social determinants, including exposure to adversity. When occurring early in life, these latter events are referred to as adverse childhood experiences (ACEs).
In this editorial, we provide an overview of the literature on the role of ACEs as social determinants of mental health through the lenses of global mental health. While the relation between ACEs and mental health has been extensively explored, most research was centred in higher income contexts. We argue that findings from the realm of global mental health should be integrated into that of ACEs, e.g. through preventative and responsive psychosocial interventions for children, adolescents and their caregivers. The field of global mental health should also undertake active efforts to better address ACEs in its initiatives, all with the goal of reducing the burden of mental disorders among children and adolescents globally.
Paediatricians play an integral role in the lifelong care of children with CHD, many of whom will undergo cardiac surgery. There is a paucity of literature for the paediatrician regarding the post-operative care of such patients.
Observations:
The aim of this manuscript is to summarise essential principles and pertinent lesion-specific context for the care of patients who have undergone surgery or intervention resulting in a biventricular circulation.
Conclusions and relevance:
Familiarity with common issues following cardiac surgery or intervention, as well as key details regarding specific lesions and surgeries, will aid the paediatrician in providing optimal care for these patients.
Single ventricle CHD affects about 5 out of 100,000 newborns, resulting in complex anatomy often requiring multiple, staged palliative surgeries. Paediatricians are an essential part of the team that cares for children with single ventricle CHD. These patients often encounter their paediatrician first when a complication arises, so it is critical to ensure the paediatrician is knowledgeable of these issues to provide optimal care.
Observations
We reviewed the subtypes of single ventricle heart disease and the various palliative surgeries these patients undergo. We then searched the literature to detail the general paediatrician’s approach to single ventricle patients at different stages of surgical palliation.
Conclusions and relevance
Single ventricle patients undergo staged palliation that drastically changes physiology after each intervention. Coordinated care between their paediatrician and cardiologist is requisite to provide excellent care. This review highlights what to expect when these patients are seen by their paediatrician for either well child visits or additional visits for parental or patient concern.
Racial and ethnic groups in the USA differ in the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Recent research however has not observed consistent racial/ethnic differences in posttraumatic stress in the early aftermath of trauma, suggesting that such differences in chronic PTSD rates may be related to differences in recovery over time.
Methods
As part of the multisite, longitudinal AURORA study, we investigated racial/ethnic differences in PTSD and related outcomes within 3 months after trauma. Participants (n = 930) were recruited from emergency departments across the USA and provided periodic (2 weeks, 8 weeks, and 3 months after trauma) self-report assessments of PTSD, depression, dissociation, anxiety, and resilience. Linear models were completed to investigate racial/ethnic differences in posttraumatic dysfunction with subsequent follow-up models assessing potential effects of prior life stressors.
Results
Racial/ethnic groups did not differ in symptoms over time; however, Black participants showed reduced posttraumatic depression and anxiety symptoms overall compared to Hispanic participants and White participants. Racial/ethnic differences were not attenuated after accounting for differences in sociodemographic factors. However, racial/ethnic differences in depression and anxiety were no longer significant after accounting for greater prior trauma exposure and childhood emotional abuse in White participants.
Conclusions
The present findings suggest prior differences in previous trauma exposure partially mediate the observed racial/ethnic differences in posttraumatic depression and anxiety symptoms following a recent trauma. Our findings further demonstrate that racial/ethnic groups show similar rates of symptom recovery over time. Future work utilizing longer time-scale data is needed to elucidate potential racial/ethnic differences in long-term symptom trajectories.
We present a broadband radio study of the transient jets ejected from the black hole candidate X-ray binary MAXI J1535–571, which underwent a prolonged outburst beginning on 2017 September 2. We monitored MAXI J1535–571 with the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) at frequencies from 119 to 186 MHz over six epochs from 2017 September 20 to 2017 October 14. The source was quasi-simultaneously observed over the frequency range 0.84–19 GHz by UTMOST (the Upgraded Molonglo Observatory Synthesis Telescope) the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP), the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA), and the Australian Long Baseline Array (LBA). Using the LBA observations from 2017 September 23, we measured the source size to be $34\pm1$ mas. During the brightest radio flare on 2017 September 21, the source was detected down to 119 MHz by the MWA, and the radio spectrum indicates a turnover between 250 and 500 MHz, which is most likely due to synchrotron self-absorption (SSA). By fitting the radio spectrum with a SSA model and using the LBA size measurement, we determined various physical parameters of the jet knot (identified in ATCA data), including the jet opening angle ($\phi_{\rm op} = 4.5\pm1.2^{\circ}$) and the magnetic field strength ($B_{\rm s} = 104^{+80}_{-78}$ mG). Our fitted magnetic field strength agrees reasonably well with that inferred from the standard equipartition approach, suggesting the jet knot to be close to equipartition. Our study highlights the capabilities of the Australian suite of radio telescopes to jointly probe radio jets in black hole X-ray binaries via simultaneous observations over a broad frequency range, and with differing angular resolutions. This suite allows us to determine the physical properties of X-ray binary jets. Finally, our study emphasises the potential contributions that can be made by the low-frequency part of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA-Low) in the study of black hole X-ray binaries.
Here we present stringent low-frequency (185 MHz) limits on coherent radio emission associated with a short-duration gamma-ray burst (SGRB). Our observations of the short gamma-ray burst (GRB) 180805A were taken with the upgraded Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) rapid-response system, which triggered within 20s of receiving the transient alert from the Swift Burst Alert Telescope, corresponding to 83.7 s post-burst. The SGRB was observed for a total of 30 min, resulting in a $3\sigma$ persistent flux density upper limit of 40.2 mJy beam–1. Transient searches were conducted at the Swift position of this GRB on 0.5 s, 5 s, 30 s and 2 min timescales, resulting in $3\sigma$ limits of 570–1 830, 270–630, 200–420, and 100–200 mJy beam–1, respectively. We also performed a dedispersion search for prompt signals at the position of the SGRB with a temporal and spectral resolution of 0.5 s and 1.28 MHz, respectively, resulting in a $6\sigma$ fluence upper-limit range from 570 Jy ms at DM $=3\,000$ pc cm–3 ($z\sim 2.5$) to 1 750 Jy ms at DM$=200$ pc cm–3 ($z\sim 0.1)$, corresponding to the known redshift range of SGRBs. We compare the fluence prompt emission limit and the persistent upper limit to SGRB coherent emission models assuming the merger resulted in a stable magnetar remnant. Our observations were not sensitive enough to detect prompt emission associated with the alignment of magnetic fields of a binary neutron star just prior to the merger, from the interaction between the relativistic jet and the interstellar medium (ISM) or persistent pulsar-like emission from the spin-down of the magnetar. However, in the case of a more powerful SGRB (a gamma-ray fluence an order of magnitude higher than GRB 180805A and/or a brighter X-ray counterpart), our MWA observations may be sensitive enough to detect coherent radio emission from the jet-ISM interaction and/or the magnetar remnant. Finally, we demonstrate that of all current low- frequency radio telescopes, only the MWA has the sensitivity and response times capable of probing prompt emission models associated with the initial SGRB merger event.
In April 2019, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released its recovery plan for the jaguar Panthera onca after several decades of discussion, litigation and controversy about the status of the species in the USA. The USFWS estimated that potential habitat, south of the Interstate-10 highway in Arizona and New Mexico, had a carrying capacity of c. six jaguars, and so focused its recovery programme on areas south of the USA–Mexico border. Here we present a systematic review of the modelling and assessment efforts over the last 25 years, with a focus on areas north of Interstate-10 in Arizona and New Mexico, outside the recovery unit considered by the USFWS. Despite differences in data inputs, methods, and analytical extent, the nine previous studies found support for potential suitable jaguar habitat in the central mountain ranges of Arizona and New Mexico. Applying slightly modified versions of the USFWS model and recalculating an Arizona-focused model over both states provided additional confirmation. Extending the area of consideration also substantially raised the carrying capacity of habitats in Arizona and New Mexico, from six to 90 or 151 adult jaguars, using the modified USFWS models. This review demonstrates the crucial ways in which choosing the extent of analysis influences the conclusions of a conservation plan. More importantly, it opens a new opportunity for jaguar conservation in North America that could help address threats from habitat losses, climate change and border infrastructure.
We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.
Technical summary
A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations.
Social media summary
Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.