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Accurate diagnosis of bipolar disorder (BPD) is difficult in clinical practice, with an average delay between symptom onset and diagnosis of about 7 years. A depressive episode often precedes the first manic episode, making it difficult to distinguish BPD from unipolar major depressive disorder (MDD).
Aims
We use genome-wide association analyses (GWAS) to identify differential genetic factors and to develop predictors based on polygenic risk scores (PRS) that may aid early differential diagnosis.
Method
Based on individual genotypes from case–control cohorts of BPD and MDD shared through the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, we compile case–case–control cohorts, applying a careful quality control procedure. In a resulting cohort of 51 149 individuals (15 532 BPD patients, 12 920 MDD patients and 22 697 controls), we perform a variety of GWAS and PRS analyses.
Results
Although our GWAS is not well powered to identify genome-wide significant loci, we find significant chip heritability and demonstrate the ability of the resulting PRS to distinguish BPD from MDD, including BPD cases with depressive onset (BPD-D). We replicate our PRS findings in an independent Danish cohort (iPSYCH 2015, N = 25 966). We observe strong genetic correlation between our case–case GWAS and that of case–control BPD.
Conclusions
We find that MDD and BPD, including BPD-D are genetically distinct. Our findings support that controls, MDD and BPD patients primarily lie on a continuum of genetic risk. Future studies with larger and richer samples will likely yield a better understanding of these findings and enable the development of better genetic predictors distinguishing BPD and, importantly, BPD-D from MDD.
This paper discusses the application of a class of Rasch models to situations where test items are grouped into subsets and the common attributes of items within these subsets brings into question the usual assumption of conditional independence. The models are all expressed as particular cases of the random coefficients multinomial logit model developed by Adams and Wilson. This formulation allows a very flexible approach to the specification of alternative models, and makes model testing particularly straightforward. The use of the models is illustrated using item bundles constructed in the framework of the SOLO taxonomy of Biggs and Collis.
We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems.
Technical summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.
Social media summary
We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts.
This study estimated the treatment cost of pediatric abdominal tuberculosis that potentially needs surgical treatment in India. Data were collected from 38 in-patient children at Christian Medical Hospital, Ludhiana as part of a clinical study conducted to establish the patterns of presentation and outcomes of abdominal tuberculosis in an Indian setting. A bottom-up approach was used to estimate the costs from a healthcare provider perspective, and a generalized linear model (GLM) was run to find variables that had an impact on the costs. Costs were reported in international dollars ($) and India Rupees (INR). The results show that the average direct cost was $3095.00 (standard deviation [SD]: 3480.82) or 68,065.13 INR (SD: 76,539.69). The GLM results established that duration of treatment and surgical treatment were significantly associated with higher costs. Efforts of eliminating the condition should be strengthened.
Background:Burkholderia multivorans are gram-negative bacteria typically found in water and soil. B. multivorans outbreaks among patients without cystic fibrosis have been associated with exposure to contaminated medical devices or nonsterile aqueous products. Acquisition can also occur from exposure to environmental reservoirs like sinks or other hospital water sources. We describe an outbreak of B. multivorans among hospitalized patients without cystic fibrosis at 2 hospitals within the same healthcare system in California (hospitals A and B) between August 2021 and July 2022. Methods: We defined confirmed case patients as patients without cystic fibrosis hospitalized at hospital A or hospital B between January 2020 to July 2022 with B. multivorans isolated from any body site matching the outbreak strain. We reviewed medical records to describe case patients and to identify common exposures. We evaluated infection control practices and interviewed staff to detect exposures to nonsterile water. Select samples from water, ice, drains, and sink splash zone surfaces were collected and cultured for B. multivorans in March 2022 and July 2022 from both hospitals. Common aqueous products used among case patients were tested for B. multivorans. Genetic relatedness between clinical and environmental samples was determined using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and repetitive extragenic palindromic polymerase chain reaction (Rep-PCR). Results: We identified 23 confirmed case patients; 20 (87%) of these were identified at an intensive care unit (ICU) in hospital A. B. multivorans was isolated from respiratory sources in 18 cases (78%). We observed medication preparation items, gloves, and patient care items stored within sink splash zones in ICU medication preparation rooms and patient rooms. Nonsterile water and ice were used for bed baths, swallow evaluations, and ice packs. B. multivorans was cultured from ice and water dispensed from an 11-year-old ice machine in the ICU at hospital A in March 2022 but no other water sources. Additional testing in July 2022 yielded B. multivorans from ice and a drain pan from a new ice machine in the same ICU location at hospital A. All products were negative. Clinical and environmental isolates were the same strain by RAPD and Rep-PCR. Conclusions: The use of nonsterile water and ice from a contaminated ice machine contributed to this outbreak. Water-related fixtures can serve as reservoirs for Burkholderia, posing infection risk to hospitalized and immunocompromised patients. During outbreaks of water-related organisms, such as B. multivorans , nonsterile water and ice use should be investigated as potential sources of transmission and other options should be considered, especially for critically ill patients.
Increasing emphasis on the use of real-world evidence (RWE) to support clinical policy and regulatory decision-making has led to a proliferation of guidance, advice, and frameworks from regulatory agencies, academia, professional societies, and industry. A broad spectrum of studies use real-world data (RWD) to produce RWE, ranging from randomized trials with outcomes assessed using RWD to fully observational studies. Yet, many proposals for generating RWE lack sufficient detail, and many analyses of RWD suffer from implausible assumptions, other methodological flaws, or inappropriate interpretations. The Causal Roadmap is an explicit, itemized, iterative process that guides investigators to prespecify study design and analysis plans; it addresses a wide range of guidance within a single framework. By supporting the transparent evaluation of causal assumptions and facilitating objective comparisons of design and analysis choices based on prespecified criteria, the Roadmap can help investigators to evaluate the quality of evidence that a given study is likely to produce, specify a study to generate high-quality RWE, and communicate effectively with regulatory agencies and other stakeholders. This paper aims to disseminate and extend the Causal Roadmap framework for use by clinical and translational researchers; three companion papers demonstrate applications of the Causal Roadmap for specific use cases.
The aim of this study was to identify and prioritize strategies for strengthening public health system resilience for pandemics, disasters, and other emergencies using a scorecard approach.
Methods:
The United Nations Public Health System Resilience Scorecard (Scorecard) was applied across 5 workshops in Slovenia, Turkey, and the United States of America. The workshops focused on participants reviewing and discussing 23 questions/indicators. A Likert type scale was used for scoring with zero being the lowest and 5 the highest. The workshop scores were analyzed and discussed by participants to prioritize areas of need and develop resilience strategies. Data from all workshops were aggregated, analyzed, and interpreted to develop priorities representative of participating locations.
Results:
Eight themes emerged representing the need for better integration of public health and disaster management systems. These include: assessing community disease burden; embedding long-term recovery groups in emergency systems; exploring mental health care needs; examining ecosystem risks; evaluating reserve funds; identifying what crisis communication strategies worked well; providing non-medical services; and reviewing resilience of existing facilities, alternate care sites, and institutions.
Conclusions:
The Scorecard is an effective tool for establishing baseline resilience and prioritizing actions. The strategies identified reflect areas in most need for investment to improve public health system resilience.
Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment.
Aims
To use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder.
Method
This study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework.
Results
The best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data.
Conclusions
Using PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.
Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools.
Aims
To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics.
Method
Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts.
Results
Earlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (β = −0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (β = −0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO.
Conclusions
AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.
All levels of government are authorized to apply coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) protection measures; however, they must consider how and when to ease lockdown restrictions to limit long-term societal harm and societal instability. Leaders that use a well-considered framework with an incremental approach will be able to gradually restart society while simultaneously maintaining the public health benefits achieved through lockdown measures. Economically vulnerable populations cannot endure long-term lockdown, and most countries lack the ability to maintain a full nationwide relief operation. Decision-makers need to understand this risk and how the Maslow hierarchy of needs and the social determinants of health can guide whole of society policies. Aligning decisions with societal needs will help ensure all segments of society are catered to and met while managing the crisis. This must inform the process of incremental easing of lockdowns to facilitate the resumption of community foundations, such as commerce, education, and employment in a manner that protects those most vulnerable to COVID-19. This study proposes a framework for identifying a path forward. It reflects on baseline requirements, regulations and recommendations, triggers, and implementation. Those desiring a successful recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic need to adopt an evidence-based framework now to ensure community stabilization and sustainability.
Seven half-day regional listening sessions were held between December 2016 and April 2017 with groups of diverse stakeholders on the issues and potential solutions for herbicide-resistance management. The objective of the listening sessions was to connect with stakeholders and hear their challenges and recommendations for addressing herbicide resistance. The coordinating team hired Strategic Conservation Solutions, LLC, to facilitate all the sessions. They and the coordinating team used in-person meetings, teleconferences, and email to communicate and coordinate the activities leading up to each regional listening session. The agenda was the same across all sessions and included small-group discussions followed by reporting to the full group for discussion. The planning process was the same across all the sessions, although the selection of venue, time of day, and stakeholder participants differed to accommodate the differences among regions. The listening-session format required a great deal of work and flexibility on the part of the coordinating team and regional coordinators. Overall, the participant evaluations from the sessions were positive, with participants expressing appreciation that they were asked for their thoughts on the subject of herbicide resistance. This paper details the methods and processes used to conduct these regional listening sessions and provides an assessment of the strengths and limitations of those processes.
Herbicide resistance is ‘wicked’ in nature; therefore, results of the many educational efforts to encourage diversification of weed control practices in the United States have been mixed. It is clear that we do not sufficiently understand the totality of the grassroots obstacles, concerns, challenges, and specific solutions needed for varied crop production systems. Weed management issues and solutions vary with such variables as management styles, regions, cropping systems, and available or affordable technologies. Therefore, to help the weed science community better understand the needs and ideas of those directly dealing with herbicide resistance, seven half-day regional listening sessions were held across the United States between December 2016 and April 2017 with groups of diverse stakeholders on the issues and potential solutions for herbicide resistance management. The major goals of the sessions were to gain an understanding of stakeholders and their goals and concerns related to herbicide resistance management, to become familiar with regional differences, and to identify decision maker needs to address herbicide resistance. The messages shared by listening-session participants could be summarized by six themes: we need new herbicides; there is no need for more regulation; there is a need for more education, especially for others who were not present; diversity is hard; the agricultural economy makes it difficult to make changes; and we are aware of herbicide resistance but are managing it. The authors concluded that more work is needed to bring a community-wide, interdisciplinary approach to understanding the complexity of managing weeds within the context of the whole farm operation and for communicating the need to address herbicide resistance.
The appeal of ketamine – in promptly ameliorating depressive symptoms even in those with non-response – has led to a dramatic increase in its off-label use. Initial promising results await robust corroboration and key questions remain, particularly concerning its long-term administration. It is, therefore, timely to review the opinions of mood disorder experts worldwide pertaining to ketamine's potential as an option for treating depression and provide a synthesis of perspectives – derived from evidence and clinical experience – and to consider strategies for future investigations.
Economists and others need estimates of future cash price volatility to use in risk management evaluation and education programs. This paper evaluates the performance of alternative volatility forecasts for fed cattle, feeder cattle, and corn cash price returns. Forecasts include time series (e.g. GARCH), implied volatility from options on futures contracts, and composite specifications. The overriding finding from this research, consistent with the existing volatility forecasting literature, is that no single method of volatility forecasting provides superior accuracy across alternative data sets and horizons. However, evidence is provided suggesting that risk managers and extension educators use composite methods when both time series and implied volatilities are available.
Computer based simulation models are increasingly being used to predict the environmental fate of crop protection chemicals. Some considerations that need to be given in selecting appropriate models for regulatory purposes include model applicability, validation, capability, ease of use, and documentation. Problems commonly encountered in modeling include limited accuracy, lack of defined objectives and standard modeling practices, and misuse of models and results. Models will continue to play an important role in the regulation of crop protection chemicals. It is important that regulators and industry agree on appropriate models and practices, and that regulatory decisions are not based solely on model results but take into account all available data.
Immunochemical techniques offer many advantages over chromatographic methods used for pesticide trace analysis of substrates such as soil, water, plants, urine, and blood. These advantages include speed of processing samples, high specificity for detecting a pesticide, reduced amount of preparation and cleanup of the sample before analysis, and a dramatic increase in the number of samples that can be analyzed. Immunoassays are based on the principle that antibodies to pesticides can be prepared, in animals, that can recognize and attach with exquisite specificity to certain chemical configurations displayed on the surface of a molecule. Small molecules such as herbicides usually are not immunogenic but can be made so by chemically bonding them to a large immunogenic protein such as bovine serum albumin before injection into an animal. Development of herbicide-specific antibodies and their use in direct and indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (EIA or ELISA) as well as radioimmunoassays (RIA) are discussed. The principles behind monoclonal antibody production are outlined, and immunoassays using polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies are compared. Specific reference is made to the development and use of indirect ELISA and RIA procedures for trace analysis of 2,4-D and picloram.