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Heavy rain and flood frequently occur in recent years and hospitals’ preparedness for flood is important. To secure patient safety, hospital evacuation planning and drills due to flooding by heavy rain is inevitable. In the study the relation of factors with hospitals’ preparedness for flood by heavy rain was analyzed.
Methods
Subjects of the study were disaster base hospitals in Japan (n = 765). Internet survey conducted in 2022. Bayesian network was used to analyze the interrelation of factors.
Results
430 hospitals (56.2%) were used for analysis. 42.1% of the hospital were located in designated flooded area and 33.7% of the hospitals have planning of hospital evacuation due to flooding. Display of area where flooding is expected in case of heavy rain and landslide warning area leads to a hospital evacuation planning and evacuation drills.
Conclusion
Display of flooded area by heavy rain or landslide warning zone by governments is effective in advancing hospital preparedness for flood. Hospitals’ recent experience of flood or landslide did not lead to evacuation planning or evacuation drills due to flood. These findings are useful in advancing hospitals’ preparedness for flood and heavy rain.
[We present three articles on Iran in the crosshairs, examining the conflict over Iran in light of moves by the US, UN, Japan, EU and Israel. The central issue concerns the US effort to bring Iran before the UN Security Council for its refusal to terminate the development of its civilian nuclear power program. It is a course that many see as the essential step toward US-directed regime change.
Discussing end-of-life (EOL) issues with patients remains challenging for health professionals. Physicians may use various expressions, including euphemistic ones, when disclosing the prognosis to their patients to reduce their psychological impact. However, the actual expressions of EOL disclosure in clinical practice are unclear. This study aims to investigate the expressions used in EOL disclosures and explore their associated factors.
Methods
A retrospective chart review was conducted enrolling all the patients who died in a university-affiliated hospital. Expressions used in the EOL disclosure were qualitatively analyzed. The patients’ participation rate and length from the discussion to death were investigated.
Results
EOL disclosures were observed in 341 of 358 patients. The expressions used by the physicians were categorized into 4 groups; Group 1: Clear presentation of life expectancy (n = 106; 31.1%), Group 2: Euphemistic presentation of life expectancy (n = 24; 7.0%), Group 3: Presentation of risk of sudden death (n = 147; 43.1%), Group 4: No mention on life expectancy (n = 64; 18.8%). The proportion of male patients was higher in Group 2 (79%) and lower in Group 4 (56%). Patients with cancer accounted for approximately 70% of Groups 1 and 4, but only approximately 30% of Group 3. The patient participation rate was highest in Group4 (84.4%), followed by Group 2 (50.0%). The median time from EOL disclosure to death was longer in Groups 1 and 4 (26 and 29.5 days, respectively), compared to Groups 2 and 3 (18.5 and 16 days, respectively).
Significance of results
A variety of expressions are used in EOL disclosure. Patterns of communication are influenced by patients’ gender and type of illness (cancer or noncancer). Euphemisms do not seem to facilitate timely disclosure of life expectancy or patient participation. For health professionals, not only devising the expressions to alleviate their patients’ distress when breaking bad news but also considering the communication process and patient background are essential.
As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Earth's ice sheets. Here, we construct an ensemble of climate forcings for Antarctica until the year 2300 based on original ISMIP6 forcings until 2100, combined with climate indices from simulations with the MIROC4m climate model until 2300. We then use these forcings to run simulations for the Antarctic ice sheet with the SICOPOLIS model. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, amounting to ~ 1.5 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the fourteen-experiment mean, and ~ 3.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. Most of this loss originates from West Antarctica. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the loss is limited to a three-experiment mean of ~ 0.16 m SLE. The means are approximately two times larger than what was found in a previous study (Chambers and others, 2022, doi:10.1017/jog.2021.124) that assumed a sustained late-21st-century climate beyond 2100, demonstrating the importance of post-2100 climate trends on Antarctic mass changes in the 22nd and 23rd centuries.
Based on experiences following the Great East Japan Earthquake and nuclear power plant accident in 2011, Nuclear Emergency Core Hospitals (NECHs) were designated as centers for radiation disaster management in Japan. This study aimed to investigate their current status and identify areas for improvement.
Methods:
This cross-sectional study was conducted in October 2018. Demographic data were collected by a questionnaire with free text responses about attitudes toward NECHs. Considerations regarding risk communications during a radiation disaster were analyzed using qualitative text mining analysis.
Results:
A total of 36 hospitals participated in this study. Only 31% of NECHs anticipated a radiation disaster. The importance of business continuity plans and risk communications was shown. Text analysis identified 7 important categories for health care workers during a radiation disaster, including media response, communications to hospital staff, risk communications, radiation effects on children, planning for a radiation disaster in the region, rumors, and the role in the region.
Conclusion:
The radiation disaster medical system and NECHs in Japan were surveyed. The importance of risk communications, planning for a radiation disaster in each region, and the role in the region are identified as issues that need to be addressed.
Ice-sheet simulations of Antarctica extending to the year 3000 are analysed to investigate the long-term impacts of 21st-century warming. Climate projections are used as forcing until 2100 and afterwards no climate trend is applied. Fourteen experiments are for the ‘unabated warming’ pathway, and three are for the ‘reduced emissions’ pathway. For the unabated warming path simulations, West Antarctica suffers a much more severe ice loss than East Antarctica. In these cases, the mass loss amounts to an ensemble average of ~3.5 m sea-level equivalent (SLE) by the year 3000 and ~5.3 m for the most sensitive experiment. Four phases of mass loss occur during the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. For the reduced emissions pathway, the mean mass loss is ~0.24 m SLE. By demonstrating that the consequences of the 21st century unabated warming path forcing are large and long term, the results present a different perspective to ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Extended ABUMIP (Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project) simulations, assuming sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse, with and without bedrock rebound, corroborate a negative feedback for ice loss found in previous studies, where bedrock rebound acts to slow the rate of ice loss.
Triaging plays an important role in providing suitable care to a large number of casualties in a disaster setting. A Pediatric Physiological and Anatomical Triage Score (PPATS) was developed as a new secondary triage method. This study aimed to validate the accuracy of the PPATS in identifying injured pediatric patients who are admitted at a high frequency and require immediate treatment in a disaster setting. The PPATS method was also compared with the current triage methods, such as the Triage Revised Trauma Score (TRTS).
Methods:
A retrospective review of pediatric patients aged ≤15 years, registered in the Japan Trauma Data Bank (JTDB) from 2012 through 2016, was conducted and PPATS was performed. The PPATS method graded patients from zero to 22, and was calculated based on vital signs, anatomical abnormalities, and the need for life-saving interventions. It categorized patients based on their priority, and the intensive care unit (ICU)-indicated patients were assigned a PPATS ≥six. The accuracy of PPATS and TRTS in predicting the outcome of ICU-indicated patients was compared.
Results:
Of 2,005 pediatric patients, 1,002 (50%) were admitted to the ICU. The median age of the patients was nine years (interquartile range [IQR]: 6-13 years). The sensitivity and specificity of PPATS were 78.6% and 43.7%, respectively. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was larger for PPATS (0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.63) than for TRTS (0.57; 95% CI, 0.56-0.59; P <.01). Regression analysis showed a significant correlation between PPATS and the Injury Severity Score (ISS; r2 = 0.353; P <.001), predicted survival rate (r2 = 0.396; P <.001), and duration of hospital stay (r2 = 0.252; P <.001).
Conclusion:
The accuracy of PPATS for injured pediatric patients was superior to that of current secondary triage methods. The PPATS method is useful not only for identifying high-priority patients, but also for determining the priority ranking for medical treatments and evacuation.
Triage has an important role in providing suitable care to the largest number of casualties in a disaster setting, but there are no secondary triage methods suitable for children. This study developed a new secondary triage method named the Pediatric Physiological and Anatomical Triage Score (PPATS) and compared its accuracy with current triage methods.
Methods
A retrospective chart review of pediatric patients under 16 years old transferred to an emergency center from 2014 to 2016 was performed. The PPATS categorized the patients, defined the intensive care unit (ICU)-indicated patients if the category was highest, and compared the accuracy of prediction of ICU-indicated patients among PPATS, Physiological and Anatomical Triage (PAT), and Triage Revised Trauma Score (TRTS).
Results
Among 137 patients, 24 (17.5%) were admitted to ICU. The median PPATS score of these patients was significantly higher than that of patients not admitted to ICU (11 [IQR: 9-13] versus three [IQR: 2-4]; P<.001). The optimal cut-off value of the PPTAS was six, yielding a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 95.8%, 86.7%, 60.5%, and 99.0%. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was larger for PPTAS than for PAT or TRTS (0.95 [95% CI, 0.87-1.00] versus 0.65 [95% CI, 0.58-0.72]; P<.001 and 0.79 [95% CI, 0.69-0.89]; P=.003, respectively). Regression analysis showed a significant association between the PPATS and the predicted mortality rate (r2=0.139; P<.001), ventilation time (r2=0.320; P<.001), ICU stay (r2=0.362; P<.001), and hospital stay (r2=0.308; P<.001).
Conclusions
The accuracy of PPATS was superior to other methods for secondary triage of children.
ToidaC, MugurumaT, AbeT, ShinoharaM, GakumazawaM, YogoN, ShirasawaA, MorimuraN. Introduction of Pediatric Physiological and Anatomical Triage Score in Mass-Casualty Incident. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(2):147–152.
We estimate the sea-ice extent and basal melt of Antarctic ice shelves at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using a coupled ice-shelf-sea-ice-ocean model. The shape of Antarctic ice shelves, ocean conditions and atmospheric surface conditions at the LGM are different from those in the present day; these are derived from an ice-shelf-ice-sheet model, a sea-ice-ocean model and a climate model for glacial simulations, respectively. The winter sea ice in the LGM is shown to extend up to ∼7° of latitude further equatorward than in the present day. For the LGM summer, the model shows extensive sea-ice cover in the Atlantic sector and little sea ice in the other sectors. These modelled sea-ice features are consistent with those reconstructed from sea-floor sedimentary records. Total basal melt of Antarctic ice shelves in the LGM was ∼2147 Gt a–1, which is much larger than the present-day value. More warm waters originating from Circumpolar Deep Water could be easily transported into ice-shelf cavities during the LGM because the full glacial grounding line extended to shelf break regions and ice shelves overhung continental slopes. This increased transport of warm water masses underneath an ice shelf and into their basal cavities led to the high basal melt of ice shelves in the LGM.
A striped pattern can be seen by spraying ink on a vertical wall of a snow pit to observe the layered structure of a snow cover. This pattern is caused by variations of snowfall in time, particularly pauses in snowfall, and its structure is related to a kind of fractal. In this paper, we consider snowfall and snow cover from a viewpoint of fractals and show that the layered structure of snow cover is a record of fractals on atmospheric-turbulence phenomena through the time variation of snowfall.
There were 5,385 deceased and 710 missing in the Ishinomaki medical zone following the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in Japan on March 11, 2011. The Ishinomaki Zone Joint Relief Team (IZJRT) was formed to unify the relief teams of all organizations joining in support of the Ishinomaki area. The IZJRT expanded relief activity as they continued to manually collect and analyze assessments of essential information for maintaining health in all 328 shelters using a paper-type survey. However, the IZJRT spent an enormous amount of time and effort entering and analyzing these data because the work was vastly complex. Therefore, an assessment system must be developed that can tabulate shelter assessment data correctly and efficiently. The objective of this report was to describe the development and verification of a system to rapidly assess evacuation centers in preparation for the next major disaster.
Report
Based on experiences with the complex work during the disaster, software called the “Rapid Assessment System of Evacuation Center Condition featuring Gonryo and Miyagi” (RASECC-GM) was developed to enter, tabulate, and manage the shelter assessment data. Further, a verification test was conducted during a large-scale Self-Defense Force (SDF) training exercise to confirm its feasibility, usability, and accuracy. The RASECC-GM comprises three screens: (1) the “Data Entry screen,” allowing for quick entry on tablet devices of 19 assessment items, including shelter administrator, living and sanitary conditions, and a tally of the injured and sick; (2) the “Relief Team/Shelter Management screen,” for registering information on relief teams and shelters; and (3) the “Data Tabulation screen,” which allows tabulation of the data entered for each shelter, as well as viewing and sorting from a disaster headquarters’ computer. During the verification test, data of mock shelters entered online were tabulated quickly and accurately on a mock disaster headquarters’ computer. Likewise, data entered offline also were tabulated quickly on the mock disaster headquarters’ computer when the tablet device was moved into an online environment.
Conclusions
The RASECC-GM, a system for rapidly assessing the condition of evacuation centers, was developed. Tests verify that users of the system would be able to easily, quickly, and accurately assess vast quantities of data from multiple shelters in a major disaster and immediately manage the inputted data at the disaster headquarters.
IshiiT, NakayamaM, AbeM, TakayamaS, KameiT, AbeY, YamaderaJ, AmitoK, MorinoK. Development and Verification of a Mobile Shelter Assessment System “Rapid Assessment System of Evacuation Center Condition Featuring Gonryo and Miyagi (RASECC-GM)” for Major Disasters. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(5):539–546.
Although dispatching ambulance crews from unaffected areas to a disaster zone is inevitable when a major disaster occurs, the effect on emergency care in the unaffected areas has not been studied. We evaluated whether dispatching ambulance crews from unaffected prefectures to those damaged by the Great East Japan Earthquake was associated with reduced resuscitation outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) cases in the unaffected areas.
Methods
We used the Box-Jenkins transfer function model to assess the relationship between ambulance crew dispatches and return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) before hospital arrival or 1-month survival after the cardiac event.
Results
In a model whose output was the rate of ROSC before hospital arrival, dispatching 1000 ambulance crews was associated with a 0.474% decrease in the rate of ROSC after the dispatch in the prefectures (p=0.023). In a model whose output was the rate of 1-month survival, dispatching 1000 ambulance crews was associated with a 0.502% decrease in the rate of 1-month survival after the dispatch in the prefectures (p=0.011).
Conclusions
The dispatch of ambulances from unaffected prefectures to earthquake-stricken areas was associated with a subsequent decrease in the ROSC and 1-month survival rates in OHCA cases in the unaffected prefectures. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2015;9:609–613)
The aim of this study was to shed light on damage to water supply facilities and the state of water resource operation at disaster base hospitals in Miyagi Prefecture (Japan) in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake (2011), in order to identify issues concerning the operational continuity of hospitals in the event of a disaster.
Methods
In addition to interview and written questionnaire surveys to 14 disaster base hospitals in Miyagi Prefecture, a number of key elements relating to the damage done to water supply facilities and the operation of water resources were identified from the chronological record of events following the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Results
Nine of the 14 hospitals experienced cuts to their water supplies, with a median value of three days (range = one to 20 days) for service recovery time. The hospitals that could utilize well water during the time that water supply was interrupted were able to obtain water in quantities similar to their normal volumes. Hospitals that could not use well water during the period of interruption, and hospitals whose water supply facilities were damaged, experienced significant disruption to dialysis, sterilization equipment, meal services, sanitation, and outpatient care services, though the extent of disruption varied considerably among hospitals. None of the hospitals had determined the amount of water used for different purposes during normal service or formulated a plan for allocation of limited water in the event of a disaster.
Conclusion
The present survey showed that it is possible to minimize the disruption and reduction of hospital functions in the event of a disaster by proper maintenance of water supply facilities and by ensuring alternative water resources, such as well water. It is also clear that it is desirable to conclude water supply agreements and formulate strategic water allocation plans in preparation for the eventuality of a long-term interruption to water services.
MatsumuraT, OsakiS, KudoD, FurukawaH, NakagawaA, AbeY, YamanouchiS, EgawaS, TominagaT, KushimotoS. Water Supply Facility Damage and Water Resource Operation at Disaster Base Hospitals in Miyagi Prefecture in the Wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2015;30(2):1-5.
A survey was conducted to describe the characteristics of patients treated for hypothermia after the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Methods
Written questionnaires were distributed to 72 emergency medical hospitals in Miyagi Prefecture. Data were requested regarding inpatients with a temperature less than 36ºC admitted within 72 hours after the earthquake. The availability of functional heating systems and the time required to restore heating after the earthquake were also documented.
Results
A total of 91 inpatients from 13 hospitals were identified. Tsunami victims comprised 73% of the patients with hypothermia. Within 24 hours of the earthquake, 66 patients were admitted. Most patients with a temperature of 32ºC or higher were treated with passive external rewarming with blankets. Discharge without sequelae was reported for 83.3% of patients admitted within 24 hours of the earthquake and 44.0% of those admitted from 24 to 72 hours after the earthquake. Heating systems were restored within 3 days of the earthquake at 43% of the hospitals.
Conclusions
Hypothermia in patients hospitalized within 72 hours of the earthquake was primarily due to cold-water exposure during the tsunami. Many patients were successfully treated in spite of the post-earthquake disruption of regional social infrastructure.(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-11)
We investigate structural and magnetic properties of Co thin-film electrodes used in a new type of spin quantum cross (SQC) devices, in which a strong stray magnetic field could be generated between the both edges of magnetic thin-film electrodes. We also calculate the stray field between the two edges of Co thin-film electrodes in SQC devices and discuss the possibility to novel spintronics devices. As a result of magnetic force microscopy (MFM) observations, the stray fields are generated from the Co edges, and they are uniformly distributed. This result indicates that magnetic single-domain structures can be formed. This is consistent with the result obtained by magneto-optical Kerr effect (MOKE). The theoretical calculation reveals that the stray field exhibits as high as 7000 Oe under the condition that the distance between the two Co edges is 5 nm and the Co thickness is 19 nm. These results indicate that SQC devices utilizing stray fields can be expected as novel spintronics devices, such as spin filtering devices and beyond CMOS switching devices.
Wildlife populations on Amami Island, Japan, have been affected by forest clear-felling and the introduction of alien species, in particular the mongoose Herpestes auropunctatus. We used monitoring data collected over 24 years to track changes in the population sizes of five species of mammals and 20 species of birds. We assigned species to the following groups: indigenous, rare, insectivorous, negatively affected by forest clear-cutting, and negatively affected by mongoose invasion. We examined trends in each group at four time points between 1985 and 2010 using two methods: species abundance estimates and the Living Planet Index. We then assessed the usefulness of these methods as tools for conservation planning. Inspecting species individually we identified four main patterns of abundance change: (a) an increase from the first to the last census period, (b) an increase in all periods except 2009–2010, (c) a decrease from 1985–1986 to 2001–2002 but an increase in 2009–2010, and (d) a decrease in all census periods. We observed certain relationships between these patterns and the species groups assigned as above. According to the Living Planet Index the group negatively affected by forest clear-cutting did not show significant recovery and the groups of rare species and species negatively affected by mongoose recovered to c. 40% of the original level after a sharp decline during 1985–2002. The Living Planet Index is a more useful tool for assessing the urgency of particular conservation needs, although limited information on species abundance reduces its representativeness for some groups.
To clarify advance measures for business continuity taken by disaster base hospitals involved in the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Methods
The predisaster situation regarding stockpiles was abstracted from a 2010 survey. Timing of electricity and water restoration and sufficiency of supplies to continue operations were investigated through materials from Miyagi Prefecture disaster medicine headquarters (prefectural medical headquarters) and disaster base hospitals (14 hospitals) in Miyagi Prefecture after the East Japan earthquake.
Results
The number of hospitals with less than 1 day of stockpiles in reserve before the disaster was 7 (50%) for electricity supplies, 8 (57.1%) for water, 6 (42.9%) for medical goods, and 6 (42.9%) for food. After the disaster, restoration of electricity and water did not occur until the second day or later at 8 of 13 (61.5%) hospitals, respectively. By the fourth postdisaster day, 14 hospitals had requested supplies from the prefectural medical headquarters: 9 (64.3%) for electricity supplies, 2 (14.3%) for water trucks, 9 (64.3%) for medical goods, and 6 (42.9%) for food.
Conclusions
The lack of supplies needed to continue operations in disaster base hospitals following the disaster clearly indicated that current business continuity plans require revision. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2013;0:1-6)
SCAR, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, is, like the IAU, a committee of ICSU, the International Council for Science. For over 30 years, SCAR has provided scientific advice to the Antarctic Treaty System and made numerous recommendations on a variety of matters. In 2010, Astronomy and Astrophysics from Antarctica was recognized as one of SCAR's five Scientific Research Programs. Broadly stated, the objectives of Astronomy & Astrophysics from Antarctica are to coordinate astronomical activities in Antarctica in a way that ensures the best possible outcomes from international investment in Antarctic astronomy, and maximizes the opportunities for productive interaction with other disciplines. There are four Working Groups, dealing with site testing, Arctic astronomy, science goals, and major new facilities. Membership of the Working Groups is open to any professional working in astronomy or a related field.
Spherical particles of ferrite (intermediate between Fe3O4 and γ-Fe2O3) were grown on seed crystals (∼9 nm) via the green rust route in an aqueous solution added with sucrose, which promotes spherical growth. By highly dispersing the seed crystals in an HNO3 solution, we could control the diameter of the particles over a wide range of 20–200 nm (geometric standard deviation: 1.1–1.4) by changing the amount of the seed crystals. At the beginning of the seed growth, clusters of the seed crystals were resolved into smaller clusters, each composed of a few seed crystals.
The purpose of the present study was to investigate whether ultrasound-derived prediction equations for estimating total and regional skeletal muscle (SM) mass in adults are applicable for prepubertal children and adolescents. Ten Japanese prepubertal children and twenty-one adolescents volunteered for the study. Contiguous MRI images with a 1 cm slice thickness were obtained from the first cervical vertebra to the ankle joints as reference data. The SM volume was calculated from the summation of digitised cross-sectional areas. The regional SM volume was determined by anatomical landmarks visible in the scanned images. The volume units were converted into mass by an assumed SM density (1·041 g/cm3). Muscle thickness was measured by B-mode ultrasound at nine sites on different muscles (lateral forearm, anterior and posterior upper arm, abdomen, subscapular, anterior and posterior thigh, anterior and posterior lower leg). Total and regional SM mass was estimated using adult prediction equations. Mean values between measured and predicted total and regional segments of SM mass were not significantly different for adolescents, but were for prepubertal children. There was a relatively large range of the 95 % limits of agreement both in prepubertal children and adolescents. These results suggest that the adult ultrasound-derived prediction equations are useful for estimating total and regional SM mass for adolescents at the group level, but the relatively high degree of variability suggested limited reliability at the individual level both in prepubertal children and adolescents.