We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for analyzing multi-site experimental fMRI studies. Our method takes the hierarchical structure of the data (subjects are nested within sites, and there are multiple observations per subject) into account and allows for modeling between-site variation. Using posterior predictive model checking and model selection based on the deviance information criterion (DIC), we show that our model provides a good fit to the observed data by sharing information across the sites. We also propose a simple approach for evaluating the efficacy of the multi-site experiment by comparing the results to those that would be expected in hypothetical single-site experiments with the same sample size.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization stressed the importance of daily clinical assessments of infected patients, yet current approaches frequently consider cross-sectional timepoints, cumulative summary measures, or time-to-event analyses. Statistical methods are available that make use of the rich information content of longitudinal assessments. We demonstrate the use of a multistate transition model to assess the dynamic nature of COVID-19-associated critical illness using daily evaluations of COVID-19 patients from 9 academic hospitals. We describe the accessibility and utility of methods that consider the clinical trajectory of critically ill COVID-19 patients.

The discovery of the first electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave signal has generated follow-up observations by over 50 facilities world-wide, ushering in the new era of multi-messenger astronomy. In this paper, we present follow-up observations of the gravitational wave event GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart SSS17a/DLT17ck (IAU label AT2017gfo) by 14 Australian telescopes and partner observatories as part of Australian-based and Australian-led research programs. We report early- to late-time multi-wavelength observations, including optical imaging and spectroscopy, mid-infrared imaging, radio imaging, and searches for fast radio bursts. Our optical spectra reveal that the transient source emission cooled from approximately 6 400 K to 2 100 K over a 7-d period and produced no significant optical emission lines. The spectral profiles, cooling rate, and photometric light curves are consistent with the expected outburst and subsequent processes of a binary neutron star merger. Star formation in the host galaxy probably ceased at least a Gyr ago, although there is evidence for a galaxy merger. Binary pulsars with short (100 Myr) decay times are therefore unlikely progenitors, but pulsars like PSR B1534+12 with its 2.7 Gyr coalescence time could produce such a merger. The displacement (~2.2 kpc) of the binary star system from the centre of the main galaxy is not unusual for stars in the host galaxy or stars originating in the merging galaxy, and therefore any constraints on the kick velocity imparted to the progenitor are poor.

Restoration in Mediterranean-climate grasslands is strongly impeded by lack of native propagules and competition with exotic grasses and forbs. We report on a study testing several methods for exotic plant control combined with planting native grasses to restore prairies in former agricultural land in coastal California. Specifically we compared tarping (shading out recently germinated seedlings with black plastic) once, tarping twice, topsoil removal, herbicide (glyphosate), and a control treatment in factorial combinations with or without wood mulch. Into each treatment we planted three native grass species (Elymus glaucus, Hordeum brachyantherum, and Stipa pulchra) and monitored plant survival and cover for three growing seasons. Survival of native grass species was high in all treatments, but was slightly lower in unmulched soil removal and control treatments in the first 2 yr. Mulching, tarping, and herbicide were all effective in reducing exotic grass cover and enhancing native grass cover for the first 2 yr, but by the third growing season cover of the plant guilds and bare ground had mostly converged, primarily because of the declining effects of the initial treatments. Mulching and tarping were both considerably more expensive than herbicide treatment. Topsoil removal was less effective in increasing native grass cover likely because soil removal altered the surface hydrology in this system. Our results show that several treatments were effective in enhancing native grass establishment, but that longer term monitoring is needed to evaluate the efficacy of restoration efforts. The most appropriate approach to controlling exotics to restore specific grassland sites will depend not only on the effectiveness, but also on relative costs and site constraints.

Stratigraphic, sedimentologic, and pedologic studies of beach ridge and lacustrine deposits indicate that up to five times during the Holocene, shallow lakes covered Silver Lake playa in southeastern California for periods of years to decades. The two youngest lacustrine events (at about 390 ± 90 yr B. P. and 3620 ± 70 yr B. P.) coincide with the early and late Neoglacial episodes of North America. Increasing evidence in recent years from other nonglaciated areas leads us to conclude that the effects of these climatic episodes were much more widespread than previously thought. The climate during these episodes was characterized by an increased frequency of winter storms in the southwestern United States, causing wetter conditions that affected diverse, hyperarid environments in the Mojave Desert and adjacent regions. We propose that this wide areal coverage was caused by large-scale, winter atmospheric circulation patterns, which are probably related to changes in sea-surface temperatures and oceanic circulation in the eastern North Pacific Ocean.

Thirteen field experiments were conducted in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Ontario from 2005 to 2007 to determine the effects of simulated glyphosate drift followed by in-crop applications of nicosulfuron/rimsulfuron plus dicamba/diflufenzopyr or foramsulfuron plus bromoxynil plus atrazine on nontransgenic corn injury, height, stand count, shoot dry weight, and yield. Simulated glyphosate drift at 100 and 200 g/ha, resulted in 11 to 61% visual crop injury and a 19 to 45% decrease in corn height. Simulated glyphosate drift at 200 g/ha caused a reduction in shoot dry weight by 46%, stand count by 28% and yield by 49 to 56%. Generally, simulated glyphosate drift followed by the in-crop herbicides resulted in an additive response with respect to visual crop injury, height, stand count, shoot dry weight, and yield.

Direct stimulation of 23 median, 13 ulnar and 2 peroneal nerves at the time of surgical exploration has been used to locate, and characterize the conduction abnormalities in thenerves. The most frequent location of the major conduction abnormalities in the median nerve was in the first 1-2 cm distal to the origin of the carpal tunnel. In the ulnar nerve the important conduction abnormalities were located most frequently in the segments 1 cm proximal and distal to the medial epicondyle. In the peroneal nerve the major conduction abnormalities occurred proximal or distal to the entry point of the common peroneal nerve into the peroneus longusmuscle.

The public health burden of alcohol is unevenly distributed across the life course, with levels of use, abuse, and dependence increasing across adolescence and peaking in early adulthood. Here, we leverage this temporal patterning to search for common genetic variants predicting developmental trajectories of alcohol consumption. Comparable psychiatric evaluations measuring alcohol consumption were collected in three longitudinal community samples (N = 2,126, obs = 12,166). Consumption-repeated measurements spanning adolescence and early adulthood were analyzed using linear mixed models, estimating individual consumption trajectories, which were then tested for association with Illumina 660W-Quad genotype data (866,099 SNPs after imputation and QC). Association results were combined across samples using standard meta-analysis methods. Four meta-analysis associations satisfied our pre-determined genome-wide significance criterion (FDR < 0.1) and six others met our ‘suggestive’ criterion (FDR <0.2). Genome-wide significant associations were highly biological plausible, including associations within GABA transporter 1, SLC6A1 (solute carrier family 6, member 1), and exonic hits in LOC100129340 (mitofusin-1-like). Pathway analyses elaborated single marker results, indicating significant enriched associations to intuitive biological mechanisms, including neurotransmission, xenobiotic pharmacodynamics, and nuclear hormone receptors (NHR). These findings underscore the value of combining longitudinal behavioral data and genome-wide genotype information in order to study developmental patterns and improve statistical power in genomic studies.