Objectives: Inappropriate hospital admissions are commonly believed torepresent a potential for significant cost reductions. However, thispresumes that these patients can be identified before the hospitalstay. The present study aimed to investigate to what extent this ispossible.
Methods: Consecutive admissions to a department of internalmedicine were assessed by two expert panels. One panel predicted theappropriateness of the stays from the information available atadmission, while final judgments of appropriateness were made afterdischarge by the other.
Results: The panels correctly classified 88% of the appropriate and27% of the inappropriate admissions. If the elective admissionspredicted to be inappropriate had been excluded, 9% of the costswould have been saved, and 5% of the gain in quality-adjusted life-years lost. The corresponding results for emergency admissions were14% and 18%.
Conclusions: The savings obtained by excluding admissions predicted tobe inappropriate were small relative to the health losses. Programsfor reducing inappropriate health care should not be implementedwithout investigating their effects on both health outcomes and costs.