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This book, geared toward academic researchers and graduate students, brings together research on all facets of how time and causality relate across the sciences. Time is fundamental to how we perceive and reason about causes. It lets us immediately rule out the sound of a car crash as its cause. That a cause happens before its effect has been a core, and often unquestioned, part of how we describe causality. Research across disciplines shows that the relationship is much more complex than that. This book explores what that means for both the metaphysics and epistemology of causes - what they are and how we can find them. Across psychology, biology, and the social sciences, common themes emerge, suggesting that time plays a critical role in our understanding. The increasing availability of large time series datasets allows us to ask new questions about causality, necessitating new methods for modeling dynamic systems and incorporating mechanistic information into causal models.
The aim of the virtual torsion sensor (VTS) is to observe the nonlinear deflection in the flexible joints of robotic manipulators and, by its use, improve positioning control of the joint load. This model-based approach utilizes the motor-side sensing only and, therefore, replaces the load-side encoders at nearly zero hardware costs. For being applied in the closed control loop, the stability and robustness of VTS are most crucial. This work extends the previous analysis by a general case of nonlinear joint stiffness with hysteresis and provides straightforward conditions with respect to the system dynamics. The dissipativity and passivity of the torsion-torque hysteresis map are analyzed and discussed in detail. The absolute stability of VTS inclusion into position control loop is shown based on the equivalent loop transformations and Popov criteria, including the sector conditions. Illustrative numerical examples of the control error dynamics and its convergence are provided.
The purpose of this paper is to establish some limit theorems of delayed averages for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains. The definition of the generalized C-strong ergodicity and the generalized uniformly C-strong ergodicity for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains is introduced first. Then a theorem about the generalized C-strong ergodicity and the generalized uniformly C-strong ergodicity for the nonhomogeneous Markov chains is established, and its applications to the information theory are given. Finally, the strong law of large numbers of delayed averages of bivariate functions for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains is proved.
Network representations of systems from various scientific and societal domains are neither completely random nor fully regular, but instead appear to contain recurring structural features. These features tend to be shared by networks belonging to the same broad class, such as the class of social networks or the class of biological networks. Within each such class, networks describing similar systems tend to have similar features. This occurs presumably because networks representing similar systems would be expected to be generated by a shared set of domain-specific mechanisms, and it should therefore be possible to classify networks based on their features at various structural levels. Here we describe and demonstrate a new hybrid approach that combines manual selection of network features of potential interest with existing automated classification methods. In particular, selecting well-known network features that have been studied extensively in social network analysis and network science literature, and then classifying networks on the basis of these features using methods such as random forest, which is known to handle the type of feature collinearity that arises in this setting, we find that our approach is able to achieve both higher accuracy and greater interpretability in shorter computation time than other methods.
Talking about odors and flavors is difficult for most people, yet experts appear to be able to convey critical information about wines in their reviews. This seems to be a contradiction, and wine expert descriptions are frequently received with criticism. Here, we propose a method for probing the language of wine reviews, and thus offer a means to enhance current vocabularies, and as a by-product question the general assumption that wine reviews are gibberish. By means of two different quantitative analyses—support vector machines for classification and Termhood analysis—on a corpus of online wine reviews, we tested whether wine reviews are written in a consistent manner, and thus may be considered informative; and whether reviews feature domain-specific language. First, a classification paradigm was trained on wine reviews from one set of authors for which the color, grape variety, and origin of a wine were known, and subsequently tested on data from a new author. This analysis revealed that, regardless of individual differences in vocabulary preferences, color and grape variety were predicted with high accuracy. Second, using Termhood as a measure of how words are used in wine reviews in a domain-specific manner compared to other genres in English, a list of 146 wine-specific terms was uncovered. These words were compared to existing lists of wine vocabulary that are currently used to train experts. Some overlap was observed, but there were also gaps revealed in the extant lists, suggesting these lists could be improved by our automatic analysis.
The topic of anomaly detection in networks has attracted a lot of attention in recent years, especially with the rise of connected devices and social networks. Anomaly detection spans a wide range of applications, from detecting terrorist cells in counter-terrorism efforts to identifying unexpected mutations during ribonucleic acid transcription. Fittingly, numerous algorithmic techniques for anomaly detection have been introduced. However, to date, little work has been done to evaluate these algorithms from a statistical perspective. This work is aimed at addressing this gap in the literature by carrying out statistical evaluation of a suite of popular spectral methods for anomaly detection in networks. Our investigation on the statistical properties of these algorithms reveals several important and critical shortcomings that we make methodological improvements to address. Further, we carry out a performance evaluation of these algorithms using simulated networks and extend the methods from binary to count networks.
This paper proposes that common measures for network transitivity, based on the enumeration of transitive triples, do not reflect the theoretical statements about transitivity they aim to describe. These statements are often formulated as comparative conditional probabilities, but these are not directly reflected by simple functions of enumerations. We think that a better approach is obtained by considering the probability of a tie between two randomly drawn nodes, conditional on selected features of the network. Two measures of transitivity based on correlation coefficients between the existence of a tie and the existence, or the number, of two-paths between the nodes are developed, and called “Transitivity Phi” and “Transitivity Correlation.” Some desirable properties for these measures are studied and compared to existing clustering coefficients, in both random (Erdös–Renyi) and in stylized networks (windmills). Furthermore, it is shown that in a directed graph, under the condition of zero Transitivity Correlation, the total number of transitive triples is determined by four underlying features: size, density, reciprocity, and the covariance between in- and outdegrees. Also, it is demonstrated that plotting conditional probability of ties, given the number of two-paths, provides valuable insights into empirical regularities and irregularities of transitivity patterns.
Values—the motivational goals that define what is important to us—guide our decisions and actions every day. Their importance is established in a long line of research investigating their universality across countries and their evolution from childhood to adulthood. In adolescence, value structures are subject to substantial change, as life becomes increasingly social. Value change has thus far been understood to operate independently within each person. However, being embedded in various social systems, adolescents are constantly subject to social influence from peers. Thus, we introduce a framework investigating the emergence and evolution of value priorities in the dynamic context of friendship networks. Drawing on stochastic actor-oriented network models, we analyze 73 friendship networks of adolescents. Regarding the evolution of values, we find that adolescents’ value systems evolve in a continuous cycle of internal validation through the selection and enactment of goals—thereby experiencing both congruence and conflicts—and external validation through social comparison among their friends. Regarding the evolution of friendship networks, we find that demographics are more salient for the initiation of new friendships, whereas values are more relevant for the maintenance of existing friendships.
In the context of a motivating study of dynamic network flow data on a large-scale e-commerce website, we develop Bayesian models for online/sequential analysis for monitoring and adapting to changes reflected in node–node traffic. For large-scale networks, we customize core Bayesian time series analysis methods using dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). These are integrated into the context of multivariate networks using the concept of decouple/recouple that was recently introduced in multivariate time series. This method enables flexible dynamic modeling of flows on large-scale networks and exploitation of partial parallelization of analysis while maintaining coherence with an over-arching multivariate dynamic flow model. This approach is anchored in a case study on Internet data, with flows of visitors to a commercial news website defining a long time series of node–node counts on over 56,000 node pairs. Central questions include characterizing inherent stochasticity in traffic patterns, understanding node–node interactions, adapting to dynamic changes in flows and allowing for sensitive monitoring to flag anomalies. The methodology of dynamic network DGLMs applies to many dynamic network flow studies.
Research Data Management (RDM) has become a professional topic of great importance internationally following changes in scholarship and government policies about the sharing of research data. Exploring Research Data Management provides an accessible introduction and guide to RDM with engaging tasks for the reader to follow and develop their knowledge. Starting by exploring the world of research and the importance and complexity of data in the research process, the book considers how a multi-professional support service can be created then examines the decisions that need to be made in designing different types of research data service from local policy creation, training, through to creating a data repository.
Control-flow refinement refers to program transformations whose purpose is to make implicit control-flow explicit, and is used in the context of program analysis to increase precision. Several techniques have been suggested for different programming models, typically tailored to improving precision for a particular analysis. In this paper we explore the use of partial evaluation of Horn clauses as a general-purpose technique for control-flow refinement for integer transitions systems. These are control-flow graphs where edges are annotated with linear constraints describing transitions between corresponding nodes, and they are used in many program analysis tools. Using partial evaluation for control-flow refinement has the clear advantage over other approaches in that soundness follows from the general properties of partial evaluation; in particular, properties such as termination and complexity are preserved. We use a partial evaluation algorithm incorporating property-based abstraction, and show how the right choice of properties allows us to prove termination and to infer complexity of challenging programs that cannot be handled by state-of-the-art tools. We report on the integration of the technique in a termination analyzer, and its use as a preprocessing step for several cost analyzers.
Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a logic programming paradigm featuring a purely declarative language with comparatively high modeling capabilities. Indeed, ASP can model problems in NP in a compact and elegant way. However, modeling problems beyond NP with ASP is known to be complicated, on the one hand, and limited to problems in $\[\Sigma _2^P\]$ on the other. Inspired by the way Quantified Boolean Formulas extend SAT formulas to model problems beyond NP, we propose an extension of ASP that introduces quantifiers over stable models of programs. We name the new language ASP with Quantifiers (ASP(Q)). In the paper we identify computational properties of ASP(Q); we highlight its modeling capabilities by reporting natural encodings of several complex problems with applications in artificial intelligence and number theory; and we compare ASP(Q) with related languages. Arguably, ASP(Q) allows one to model problems in the Polynomial Hierarchy in a direct way, providing an elegant expansion of ASP beyond the class NP.
CiaoPP is an analyzer and optimizer for logic programs, part of the Ciao Prolog system. It includes PLAI, a fixpoint algorithm for the abstract interpretation of logic programs which we adapt to use tabled constraint logic programming. In this adaptation, the tabling engine drives the fixpoint computation, while the constraint solver handles the LUB of the abstract substitutions of different clauses. That simplifies the code and improves performance, since termination, dependencies, and some crucial operations (e.g., branch switching and resumption) are directly handled by the tabling engine. Determining whether the fixpoint has been reached uses semantic equivalence, which can decide that two syntactically different abstract substitutions represent the same element in the abstract domain. Therefore, the tabling analyzer can reuse answers in more cases than an analyzer using syntactical equality. This helps achieve better performance, even taking into account the additional cost associated to these checks. Our implementation is based on the TCLP framework available in Ciao Prolog and is one-third the size of the initial fixpoint implementation in CiaoPP. Its performance has been evaluated by analyzing several programs using different abstract domains.
With the more and more growing demand for semantic Web services over large databases, an efficient evaluation of Datalog queries is arousing a renewed interest among researchers and industry experts. In this scenario, to reduce memory consumption and possibly optimize execution times, the paper proposes novel techniques to determine an optimal indexing schema for the underlying database together with suitable body-orderings for the Datalog rules. The new approach is compared with the standard execution plans implemented in DLV over widely used ontological benchmarks. The results confirm that the memory usage can be significantly reduced without paying any cost in efficiency.
The inherent difficulty of knowledge specification and the lack of trained specialists are some of the key obstacles on the way to making intelligent systems based on the knowledge representation and reasoning (KRR) paradigm commonplace. Knowledge and query authoring using natural language, especially controlled natural language (CNL), is one of the promising approaches that could enable domain experts, who are not trained logicians, to both create formal knowledge and query it. In previous work, we introduced the KALM system (Knowledge Authoring Logic Machine) that supports knowledge authoring (and simple querying) with very high accuracy that at present is unachievable via machine learning approaches. The present paper expands on the question answering aspect of KALM and introduces KALM-QA (KALM for Question Answering) that is capable of answering much more complex English questions. We show that KALM-QA achieves 100% accuracy on an extensive suite of movie-related questions, called MetaQA, which contains almost 29,000 test questions and over 260,000 training questions. We contrast this with a published machine learning approach, which falls far short of this high mark.
Anti-unification refers to the process of generalizing two (or more) goals into a single, more general, goal that captures some of the structure that is common to all initial goals. In general one is typically interested in computing what is often called a most specific generalization, that is a generalization that captures a maximal amount of shared structure. In this work we address the problem of anti-unification in CLP, where goals can be seen as unordered sets of atoms and/or constraints. We show that while the concept of a most specific generalization can easily be defined in this context, computing it becomes an NP-complete problem. We subsequently introduce a generalization algorithm that computes a well-defined abstraction whose computation can be bound to a polynomial execution time. Initial experiments show that even a naive implementation of our algorithm produces acceptable generalizations in an efficient way.
A classical result in descriptive complexity theory states that Datalog expresses exactly the class of polynomially computable queries on ordered databases (Papadimitriou 1985; Grädel 1992; Vardi 1982; Immerman 1986; Leivant 1989). In this paper we extend this result to the case of higher-order Datalog. In particular, we demonstrate that on ordered databases, for all k ≥ 2, k-order Datalog captures (k − 1)-EXPTIME. This result suggests that higher-order extensions of Datalog possess superior expressive power and they are worthwhile of further investigation both in theory and in practice.
To be responsive to dynamically changing real-world environments, an intelligent agent needs to perform complex sequential decision-making tasks that are often guided by commonsense knowledge. The previous work on this line of research led to the framework called interleaved commonsense reasoning and probabilistic planning (icorpp), which used P-log for representing commmonsense knowledge and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) or Partially Observable MDPs (POMDPs) for planning under uncertainty. A main limitation of icorpp is that its implementation requires non-trivial engineering efforts to bridge the commonsense reasoning and probabilistic planning formalisms. In this paper, we present a unified framework to integrate icorpp’s reasoning and planning components. In particular, we extend probabilistic action language pBC+ to express utility, belief states, and observation as in POMDP models. Inheriting the advantages of action languages, the new action language provides an elaboration tolerant representation of POMDP that reflects commonsense knowledge. The idea led to the design of the system pbcplus2pomdp, which compiles a pBC+ action description into a POMDP model that can be directly processed by off-the-shelf POMDP solvers to compute an optimal policy of the pBC+ action description. Our experiments show that it retains the advantages of icorpp while avoiding the manual efforts in bridging the commonsense reasoner and the probabilistic planner.