In this article, we build a model to predict the state-level results of the 2024 election. We do so by using both polling from similar points in past election cycles and the results of the previous election. Notably, we update our model over time, and the coefficients of the two variables change as a result: the model puts more weight on polling as the election gets closer. As of September 1, 2024, we find that Kamala Harris is a narrow favorite to win the 2024 election, with a 57% chance of doing so. Currently, the model predicts she will win 289 electoral votes to Trump’s 249. However, there remains significant uncertainty, and the model will continue to be updated as the election nears.

The objective was to examine associations between social jetlag and diet quality among young adults in the US using nationally representative data from the 2017–2018 NHANES survey, and evaluate effect modification by gender and race/ethnicity. Social jetlag was considered ≥2-hour difference in sleep midpoint (median of bedtime and wake time) between weekends and weekdays. Diet quality was assessed with the Healthy Eating Index (HEI)-2015 and its 13 dietary components. Ordinal logistic models were run with diet scores binned into tertiles as the outcome. Models accounted for potential confounders and survey weights. Effect modification by gender and race/ethnicity was examined. The study sample included 1,356 adults aged 20–39 years. 31% of young adults had social jetlag. Overall, there were no associations between social jetlag and diet quality. However, interaction analysis revealed several associations were race-specific (P, interaction<0.05). Among Black adults, social jetlag was associated with lower overall diet quality (OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2, 0.8; i.e. less likely to be in higher diet quality tertiles) and more unfavourable scores on Total Vegetables (OR = 0.6, 95% CI 0.3, 1.0) and Added Sugar (i.e. OR = 0.6, 95% CI 0.4, 0.9). For Hispanic adults, social jetlag was associated with worse scores for Sodium (OR = 0.6, 95% CI 0.4, 0.9) However, White adults with social jetlag had better scores of Greens and Beans (OR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.1, 3.2). Within a nationally representative sample of US young adults, social jetlag was related to certain indicators of lower diet quality among Black and Hispanic Americans.

A quantitative method for determination of montmorillonite in the soil clay fraction, using X-ray spectrometry, is proposed. The method is based on the fact that polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) is adsorbed on the interlayer surfaces of montmorillonite, giving a first order c-axis spacing of 26 Å, while it is not adsorbed on other swelling clays. The experimental conditions to obtain a maximum height of the X-ray diffraction peak, and the effect of the mass adsorption coefficient of vermiculite on the intensity of montmorillonite, were investigated. Soil montmorillonite was determined by the method of known additions, measuring the intensity of the X-ray diffraction peak before and after the addition of small and known amounts of Wyoming montmorillonite.

Background: CHAMPION-NMOSD (NCT04201262) is an ongoing global, open-label, phase 3 study evaluating ravulizumab in AQP4+ NMOSD. Methods: Adult patients received an intravenous, weight-based loading dose of ravulizumab on day 1 and a maintenance dose on day 15 and every 8 weeks thereafter. Following a primary treatment period (PTP; up to 2.5 years), patients could enter a long-term extension (LTE). Results: 58 patients completed the PTP; 56/2 entered/completed the LTE. As of June 16, 2023, median (range) follow-up was 138.4 (11.0-183.1) weeks for ravulizumab (n=58), with 153.9 patient-years. Across the PTP and LTE, no patients had an adjudicated on-trial relapse during ravulizumab treatment. 91.4% (53/58 patients) had stable or improved Hauser Ambulation Index score. 91.4% (53/58 patients) had no clinically important worsening in Expanded Disability Status Scale score. The incidence of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) and serious adverse events was 94.8% and 25.9%, respectively. Most TEAEs were mild to moderate in severity and unrelated to ravulizumab. TEAEs leading to withdrawal from ravulizumab occurred in 1 patient. Conclusions: Ravulizumab demonstrated long-term clinical benefit in the prevention of relapses in AQP4+ NMOSD with a safety profile consistent with prior analyses.

Radiocarbon (14C) dating of sediment deposition around Antarctica is often challenging due to heterogeneity in sources and ages of organic carbon in the sediment. Chemical and thermochemical techniques have been used to separate organic carbon when microfossils are not present. These techniques generally improve on bulk sediment dates, but they necessitate assumptions about the age spectra of specific molecules or compound classes and about the chemical heterogeneity of thermochemical separations. To address this, the Rafter Radiocarbon Laboratory has established parallel ramped pyrolysis oxidation (RPO) and ramped pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (Py-GC-MS) systems to thermochemically separate distinct carbon fractions, diagnose the chemical composition of each fraction, and target suitable RPO fractions for radiocarbon dating. Three case studies of sediment taken from locations around Antarctica are presented to demonstrate the implementation of combined RPO-AMS and Py-GC-MS to provide more robust age determination in detrital sediment stratigraphy. These three depositional environments are good examples of analytical and interpretive challenges related to oceanographic conditions, carbon sources, and other factors. Using parallel RPO-AMS and Py-GC-MS analyses, we reduce the number of radiocarbon measurements required, minimize run times, provide context for unexpected 14C ages, and better support interpretations of radiocarbon measurements in the context of environmental reconstruction.

Political Behavior is the official journal of the Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior organized section of the American Political Science Association. It publishes research on the political behavior of citizens, political activists, and political officeholders in the United States and around the world. From the perspective of its Journal Impact Factor, the journal’s reputation and impact have grown steadily in recent years. The first and last listed authors of this article served as co-editors-in-chief of Political Behavior from 2019 through 2022. The middle three listed authors served as editorial assistants during this same period.

Accurate and reliable computation of the aerodynamic characteristics of wind turbines is very important for the development of new efficient designs. The flow around a wind turbine is modeled by a permeable disc (PD), solved through the Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes equations (URANS), here named PD/URANS method. The finite volume method and a total variation diminishing (TVD) scheme solve numerically the flow governing equations. The turbulent flow in the wake of the wind turbine is simulated utilising a one-equation turbulence model. The Glauert correction calculation considers a uniform normal force distribution (CT) on the virtual permeable disc applied to the flow, while the axial induction factor is obtained directly from the numerical solution of the URANS equations. The numerical axial induction factor obtained agrees fairly well with Glauert correction, except if the flow behind the turbine is highly unsteady and Reynolds number dependent.

Precision Medicine is an emerging approach for disease treatment and prevention that takes into account individual variability in genes, environment, and lifestyle. Autoimmune diseases are those in which the body’s natural defense system loses discriminating power between its own cells and foreign cells, causing the body to mistakenly attack healthy tissues. These conditions are very heterogeneous in their presentation and therefore difficult to diagnose and treat. Achieving precision medicine in autoimmune diseases has been challenging due to the complex etiologies of these conditions, involving an interplay between genetic, epigenetic, and environmental factors. However, recent technological and computational advances in molecular profiling have helped identify patient subtypes and molecular pathways which can be used to improve diagnostics and therapeutics. This review discusses the current understanding of the disease mechanisms, heterogeneity, and pathogenic autoantigens in autoimmune diseases gained from genomic and transcriptomic studies and highlights how these findings can be applied to better understand disease heterogeneity in the context of disease diagnostics and therapeutics.

This systematic literature review aimed to provide an overview of the characteristics and methods used in studies applying the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) concept for infectious diseases within European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA)/European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries and the United Kingdom. Electronic databases and grey literature were searched for articles reporting the assessment of DALY and its components. We considered studies in which researchers performed DALY calculations using primary epidemiological data input sources. We screened 3053 studies of which 2948 were excluded and 105 studies met our inclusion criteria. Of these studies, 22 were multi-country and 83 were single-country studies, of which 46 were from the Netherlands. Food- and water-borne diseases were the most frequently studied infectious diseases. Between 2015 and 2022, the number of burden of infectious disease studies was 1.6 times higher compared to that published between 2000 and 2014. Almost all studies (97%) estimated DALYs based on the incidence- and pathogen-based approach and without social weighting functions; however, there was less methodological consensus with regards to the disability weights and life tables that were applied. The number of burden of infectious disease studies undertaken across Europe has increased over time. Development and use of guidelines will promote performing burden of infectious disease studies and facilitate comparability of the results.

While universities in several South American nations are experiencing the effects of redemocratization, Chilean universities have entered their second decade under military rule. Exploring Chilean higher education in the first decade reveals much about the fate of a major political, economic, and social institution and also sheds light on theoretical concerns that have attracted substantial scholarly attention.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: We were interested in health equity research for each CTSA-affiliated institution, specifically focusing on cross department and cross-campus co-authorship. We conducted a bibliometric analysis of our CTSA-funded papers relating to diversity and inclusion to identify cross department and cross-campus collaborations. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We worked with our CTSAs Racial Justice, Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Task Force to conduct an environmental scan of diversity and inclusion research across our CTSA partner institutions. Using the Scopus database, searches were constructed to identify and retrieve the variety of affiliations for each of the CTSA authors, a health equity/health disparities search hedge, and all of our CTSA grant numbers. We limited the dates from the beginning of our CTSA in 2008-November 2021. We used PubMed to retrieve all MeSH terms for the articles. We used Excel to analyze the data, Python and NCBIs Entrez Programming Utilities to analyze MeSH terms, and VOSviewer to produce the visualizations. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The results of this search yielded 94 articles overall. We broke these up into subsets (not mutually exclusive) to represent five of the researcher groups across our CTSA. We analyzed the overall dataset for citation count, normalized citation count, CTSA average authors, gender trends, and co-term analysis. We also developed cross department co-authorship maps and cross-institutional/group co-authorship maps. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This poster will demonstrate both the current areas where cross-departmental and cross-institutional collaboration exists among our CTSA authors, as well as identify potential existing areas for collaboration to occur. These findings may determine areas our CTSA can support to improve institutional performance in addressing health equity.

Field studies were conducted to determine the effects of synthetic auxin herbicides at simulated exposure rates applied to ‘Covington’ sweetpotato propagation beds on the quality of nonrooted stem cuttings (slips). Treatments included diglycolamine salt of dicamba, 2,4-D choline plus nonionic surfactant (NIS), and 2,4-D choline plus glyphosate at 1/10, 1/33, or 1/66 of a 1X application rate (560 g ae ha−1 dicamba, 1,065 g ae ha−1 2,4-D choline, 1,130 g ae ha−1 glyphosate) applied at 2 or 4 wk after first slip harvest (WASH). Injury to sweetpotato 2 wk after treatment was greatest when herbicides were applied 2 WASH (21%) compared to 4 WASH (16%). More slip injury was caused by 2,4-D choline than by dicamba, and the addition of glyphosate did not increase injury over 2,4-D choline alone. Two weeks after the second application, sweetpotato slips were cut 2 cm above the soil surface and transplanted into production fields. In 2019, sweetpotato ground coverage 8 wk after transplanting was reduced 37% and 26% by the 1/10X rates of dicamba and 2,4-D choline plus NIS, respectively. Though dicamba caused less injury to propagation beds than 2,4-D choline with or without glyphosate, after transplanting, slips treated with 1/10X dicamba did not recover as quickly as those treated with 2,4-D choline. In 2020, sweetpotato ground coverage was 90% or greater for all treatments. Dicamba applied 2 WASH decreased marketable sweetpotato storage root yield by 59% compared to the nontreated check, whereas treatments including 2,4-D choline reduced marketable yield 22% to 29%. All herbicides applied at 4 WASH reduced marketable yield 31% to 36%. The addition of glyphosate to 2,4-D choline did not increase sweetpotato yield. Results indicate that caution should be taken when deciding whether to transplant sweetpotato slips that are suspected to have been exposed to dicamba or 2,4-D choline.