In the absence of an established gold standard, an understanding of the testing cycle from individual exposure to test outcome report is required to guide the correct interpretation of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) results and optimise the testing processes. Bayesian network models have been used within healthcare to bring clarity to complex problems. We use this modelling approach to construct a comprehensive framework for understanding the real-world predictive value of individual RT-PCR results.

We elicited knowledge from domain experts to describe the test process through a facilitated group workshop. A preliminary model was derived based on the elicited knowledge, then subsequently refined, parameterised and validated with a second workshop and one-on-one discussions.

Causal relationships elicited describe the interactions of pre-testing, specimen collection and laboratory procedures and RT-PCR platform factors, and their impact on the presence and quantity of virus and thus the test result and its interpretation. By setting the input variables as ‘evidence’ for a given subject and preliminary parameterisation, four scenarios were simulated to demonstrate potential uses of the model.

The core value of this model is a deep understanding of the total testing cycle, bridging the gap between a person's true infection status and their test outcome. This model can be adapted to different settings, testing modalities and pathogens, adding much needed nuance to the interpretations of results.

Translocation and rehabilitation programmes are critical tools for wildlife conservation. These methods achieve greater impact when integrated in a combined strategy for enhancing population or ecosystem restoration. During 2002–2016 we reared 37 orphaned southern sea otter Enhydra lutris nereis pups, using captive sea otters as surrogate mothers, then released them into a degraded coastal estuary. As a keystone species, observed increases in the local sea otter population unsurprisingly brought many ecosystem benefits. The role that surrogate-reared otters played in this success story, however, remained uncertain. To resolve this, we developed an individual-based model of the local population using surveyed individual fates (survival and reproduction) of surrogate-reared and wild-captured otters, and modelled estimates of immigration. Estimates derived from a decade of population monitoring indicated that surrogate-reared and wild sea otters had similar reproductive and survival rates. This was true for males and females, across all ages (1–13 years) and locations evaluated. The model simulations indicated that reconstructed counts of the wild population are best explained by surrogate-reared otters combined with low levels of unassisted immigration. In addition, the model shows that 55% of observed population growth over this period is attributable to surrogate-reared otters and their wild progeny. Together, our results indicate that the integration of surrogacy methods and reintroduction of juvenile sea otters helped establish a biologically successful population and restore a once-impaired ecosystem.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is the most common cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhea and an increasingly common infection in children in both hospital and community settings. Between 20% and 30% of pediatric patients will have a recurrence of symptoms in the days to weeks following an initial infection. Multiple recurrences have been successfully treated with fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT), though the body of evidence in pediatric patients is limited primarily to case reports and case series. The goal of our study was to better understand practices, success, and safety of FMT in children as well as identify risk factors associated with a failed FMT in our pediatric patients. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This multicenter retrospective analysis included 373 patients who underwent FMT for CDI between January 1, 2006 and January 1, 2017 from 18 pediatric centers. Demographics, baseline characteristics, FMT practices, C. difficile outcomes, and post-FMT complications were collected through chart abstraction. Successful FMT was defined as no recurrence of CDI within 60 days after FMT. Of the 373 patients in the cohort, 342 had known outcome data at two months post-FMT and were included in the primary analysis evaluating risk factors for recurrence post-FMT. An additional six patients who underwent FMT for refractory CDI were excluded from the primary analysis. Unadjusted analysis was performed using Wilcoxon rank-sum test, Pearson χ2 test, or Fisher exact test where appropriate. Stepwise logistic regression was utilized to determine independent predictors of success. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The median age of included patients was 10 years (IQR; 3.0, 15.0) and 50% of patients were female. The majority of the cohort was White (89.0%). Comorbidities included 120 patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and 14 patients who had undergone a solid organ or stem cell transplantation. Of the 336 patients with known outcomes at two months, 272 (81%) had a successful outcome. In the 64 (19%) patients that did have a recurrence, 35 underwent repeat FMT which was successful in 20 of the 35 (57%). The overall success rate of FMT in preventing further episodes of CDI in the cohort with known outcome data was 87%. Unadjusted predictors of a primary FMT response are summarized. Based on stepwise logistic regression modeling, the use of fresh stool, FMT delivery via colonoscopy, the lack of a feeding tube, and a lower number of CDI episodes before undergoing FMT were independently associated with a successful outcome. There were 20 adverse events in the cohort assessed to be related to FMT, 6 of which were felt to be severe. There were no deaths assessed to be related to FMT in the cohort. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: The overall success of FMT in pediatric patients with recurrent or severe CDI is 81% after a single FMT. Children without a feeding tube, who receive an early FMT, FMT with fresh stool, or FMT via colonoscopy are less likely to have a recurrence of CDI in the 2 months following FMT. This is the first large study of FMT for CDI in a pediatric cohort. These findings, if confirmed by additional prospective studies, will support alterations in the practice of FMT in children.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD) represent a disease continuum with common genetic causes and molecular pathology. We recently identified mutations in the T-cell restricted intracellular antigen-1 (TIA1) protein as a cause of ALS +/− FTD. TIA1 is an RNA-binding protein containing a low complexity domain (LCD) that promotes the assembly of membrane-less organelles, such as stress granules (SG). Whole exome sequencing of two family members with fALS/FTD revealed a novel missense mutation in the TIA1 LCD (P362L). Subsequent screening identified five more TIA1 mutations in six additional ALS patients, but none in controls. All mutation carriers presented with weakness, behavioral abnormalities or language impairments and had a final diagnosis of ALS +/− FTD. Autopsy on five TIA1 mutation carriers showed widespread neurodegeneration with TDP-43 pathology. Round eosinophilic inclusions in lower motor neurons were a consistent feature. Cellular assays revealed abnormal SG dynamics in the presence of TIA1 mutations. In summary, missense mutations in the LCD of TIA1 are a newly recognized cause of ALS/FTD with TDP-43 pathology and strengthen the role of RNA metabolism in the pathogenesis in this disease.