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We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems.
Technical summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.
Social media summary
We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts.
Early identification of patients with mental health problems in need of highly specialised care could enhance the timely provision of appropriate care and improve the clinical and cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies. Recent research on the development and psychometric evaluation of diagnosis-specific decision-support algorithms suggested that the treatment allocation of patients to highly specialised mental healthcare settings may be guided by a core set of transdiagnostic patient factors.
Aims
To develop and psychometrically evaluate a transdiagnostic decision tool to facilitate the uniform assessment of highly specialised mental healthcare need in heterogeneous patient groups.
Method
The Transdiagnostic Decision Tool was developed based on an analysis of transdiagnostic items of earlier developed diagnosis-specific decision tools. The Transdiagnostic Decision Tool was psychometrically evaluated in 505 patients with a somatic symptom disorder or post-traumatic stress disorder. Feasibility, interrater reliability, convergent validity and criterion validity were assessed. In order to evaluate convergent validity, the five-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) and the ICEpop CAPability measure for Adults (ICECAP-A) were administered.
Results
The six-item clinician-administered Transdiagnostic Decision Tool demonstrated excellent feasibility and acceptable interrater reliability. Spearman's rank correlations between the Transdiagnostic Decision Tool and ICECAP-A (−0.335), EQ-5D-5L index (−0.386) and EQ-5D-visual analogue scale (−0.348) supported convergent validity. The area under the curve was 0.81 and a cut-off value of ≥3 was found to represent the optimal cut-off value.
Conclusions
The Transdiagnostic Decision Tool demonstrated solid psychometric properties and showed promise as a measure for the early detection of patients in need of highly specialised mental healthcare.
One of the models explaining the high luminosity of pulsing ultra-luminous X-ray sources (pULXs) was suggested by Mushtukov et al. (2015). They showed that the accretion columns on the surfaces of highly magnetized neutron stars can be very luminous due to opacity reduction in the high magnetic field. However, a strong magnetic field leads also to amplification of the electron-positron pairs creation. Therefore, increasing of the electron and positron number densities compensates the cross-section reduction, and the electron scattering opacity does not decrease with the magnetic field magnification. As a result, the maximum possible luminosity of the accretion column does not increase with the magnetic field. It ranges between 1040 − 1041 erg s−1 depending only slightly on the magnetic field strength.
Lurasidone has demonstrated efficacy treating adults with schizophrenia, the majority of them with chronic, multi-episode schizophrenia.
Objective
To assess baseline characteristics and evaluate efficacy of lurasidone in patients with early-stage schizophrenia (ESS).
Aims
Evaluate efficacy of lurasidone in patients with ESS.
Methods
A pooled analysis of patients with ESS (defined as onset of illness within 3 years of study entry) from three, 6-week, randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trials was performed. Additional analysis was conducted for patients with onset within 5 years. Efficacy was evaluated using a mixed-model repeated-measures analysis of change in PANSS total score and CGISeverity score. Treatment response was defined as ≥20% improvement in PANSS total score from baseline.
Results
857 subjects were randomized to lurasidone and 366 to placebo of which 102(11.9%) lurasidone and 44(12.0%) placebo subjects had ESS (onset within 3 years). Among 146 ESS subjects, 70.5% were male, mean age was 28.6 years. Baseline PANSS total and CGI-S scores were 96.8 and 5.0 respectively. Lurasidone treatment of early-stage schizophrenia subjects showed significant improvement vs placebo in PANSS total score (-25.9 vs -17.3; p< 0.05, effect size=0.42), PANSS positive (-9.6 vs 6.0; p< 0.01) and negative (-5.6 vs -3.2; p=0.014) subscale scores, and improvement in CGI-S score (-1.7 vs -1.3; p=0.089, effect size=0.36). Responder rates were 69% for lurasidone vs 48% for placebo (NNT=5). Similar results were observed in subjects with within 5 years of onset of illness.
Conclusion
In this subgroup analysis, lurasidone was effective in the treatment of patients with early-stage schizophrenia.
Agitation is a common presentation among patients hospitalized for an acute exacerbation of schizophrenia. Rapid and effective control of agitation is an important early treatment goal.
Objectives:
The aim of this post-hoc analysis was to evaluate the efficacy of lurasidone in reducing agitation in patients with an acute exacerbation of schizophrenia.
Methods:
The analysis was performed on pooled data from 5 six-week, placebo-controlled trials in the subgroup of patients with an acute exacerbation of schizophrenia who met (n=773), or did not meet (n=754), criteria) for agitation (PANSS-Excited Component [EC] score ≥14 at baseline, Citrome, J Clin Psych 2007;68:1876-1885). Patients were randomized to fixed once-daily doses of lurasidone (40-160 mg).
Results:
The mean baseline PANSS-EC scores were similar for lurasidone vs. placebo in the high (16.7 vs. 16.8) and low (10.9 vs. 10.7) agitation subgroups. In the high agitation subgroup, treatment with lurasidone (vs. placebo) was associated with significantly greater improvement in PANSS-EC scores at days 3/4 (-2.0 vs. -1.3; p<0.001) and day 7 (-2.6 vs. -1.8; p<0.001). At week 6 endpoint, improvement on lurasidone vs. placebo was greater in the high vs. low agitation groups on the PANSS-EC score (effect size, 0.43 vs. 0.31), and comparable on the PANSS total score (effect size, 0.57 vs. 0.58).
Conclusions:
In this pooled post-hoc analysis, treatment with lurasidone significantly reduced agitation by day 3/4 in patients hospitalized with an acute exacerbation of schizophrenia. The magnitude of improvement at week 6 was similar in both the high and low agitation groups.
Schizophrenia is characterized by poor social interaction contributing to poor functional outcome. Particularly nonverbal communication is disturbed. Neural correlates of impaired gesturing are currently unclear. We thus tested functional correlates of gesturing in schizophrenia patients and healthy controls.
Methods
We tested 22 patients and 25 controls with an event-related fMRI (instructed delay) paradigm to dissociate brain activation during planning and execution of meaningful (e.g. use scissors) and meaningless novel gestures. Preprocessing included realignment, coregistration, normalization and spatial smoothing. We used a two stage mixed effects model for statistical analysis. Conditions were contrasted against a linguistic control within and between groups. We correlated psychopathological characteristics with beta estimates of brain areas with between group effects.
Results
During planning and execution of both gesture subtypes both groups activated brain areas of the ventral and dorsal stream. However patients’ activity was less prominent and more left lateralized. During planning patients showed additional activity in bilateral temporal poles, amygdala and hippocampus associated with the level of delusions. Furthermore patients had increased dorsomedial prefrontal cortex and precuneus activity when planning meaningless gestures.
Conclusion
During the planning of meaningless gestures we detected aberrant activation of limbic structures in patients typically implicated in delusion formation, which also correlated with current severity of delusions. Moreover, planning of meaningless gestures relied on areas relevant for strategic control and attention. These results argue for a pathologic search for meaning in neutral gestures and increased control effort during planning of meaningless gestures in schizophrenia.
Disclosure of interest
The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.
Many intermediate polars are hard X-ray sources. The theory of their hard X-ray radiation is well developed and allows us to determine white dwarf masse in this kind of cataclysmic variables. Here we present the results of determination the masses of 35 white dwarfs in the intermediate polars observed by observatories NuSTAR (10 sources) and Swift/BAT (25 sources). The corresponding mass accrerion rates and the luminosity function were also derived due to accurate distance to the sources well known now after Gaia DR2.
This second edition provides a rigorous yet accessible graduate-level introduction to financial economics. Since students often find the link between financial economics and equilibrium theory hard to grasp, less attention is given to purely financial topics, such as valuation of derivatives, and more emphasis is placed on making the connection with equilibrium theory explicit and clear. This book also provides a detailed study of two-date models because almost all of the key ideas in financial economics can be developed in the two-date setting. Substantial discussions and examples are included to make the ideas readily understandable. Several chapters in this new edition have been reordered and revised to deal with portfolio restrictions sequentially and more clearly, and an extended discussion on portfolio choice and optimal allocation of risk is available. The most important additions are new chapters on infinite-time security markets, exploring, among other topics, the possibility of price bubbles.
Exposure to child maltreatment has been shown to increase lifetime risk for substance use disorders (SUD). However, this has not been systematically examined among race/ethnic groups, for whom rates of exposure to assaultive violence and SUD differ. This study examined variation by race/ethnicity and gender in associations of alcohol (AUD), cannabis (CUD), and tobacco (TUD) use disorders with three types of childhood interpersonal violence (cIPV): physical abuse, sexual abuse, and witnessing parental violence.
Method
Data from the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol-Related Conditions-III (N: 36 309), a US nationally representative sample, was utilized to examine associations of DSM-5 AUD, CUD and TUD with cIPV among men and women of five racial/ethnic groups. Models were adjusted for additional risk factors (e.g. parental substance use problems, participant's co-occurring SUD).
Results
Independent contributions of childhood physical and sexual abuse to AUD, CUD, and TUD, and of witnessing parental violence to AUD and TUD were observed. Associations of cIPV and SUD were relatively similar across race/ethnicity and gender [Odds Ratios (ORs) ranged from 1.1 to 1.9], although associations of physical abuse with AUD and TUD were greater among males, associations of parental violence and AUD were greater among females, and associations of parental violence with AUD were greater among Hispanic women and American Indian men.
Conclusions
Given the paucity of research in this area, and the potential identification of modifiable risk factors to reduce the impact of childhood interpersonal violence on SUDs, further research and consideration of tailoring prevention and intervention efforts to different populations are warranted.
Clear evidence for the formation of mixed clathrate hydrates of air and hydrochlorofluorocarbon densifier (known as HCFC-141b, sometimes also called R-141b) is found by means of synchrotron X-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy on a sample recovered from the bottom of the EPICA Dronning Maud Land deep borehole in Antarctica. Subglacial water (SGW) appears to have reacted with the drilling liquid to build a large lump of clathrate hydrate. The hydrate growth may well have been accelerated by the stirring of the SGW–densifier mixture during drilling. Moreover, dissolved air in the SGW appears to have participated in the formation of mixed hydrates of air and HCFC-141b as evidenced by the concomitant appearance of Raman signals from both constituents. Our findings elucidate to some extent the meaning of earlier accounts of the formation of ‘heavy chips’ that may sink to the bottom of the borehole, possibly affecting or even impeding the drilling advance. These observations raise concerns with respect to the use of HCFC-141b densifiers in ice-core drilling liquids under warm ice conditions.
A number of scientists have already warned against the risks of interpreting paleoclimate records without an adequate understanding of the diffusion of relevant chemical traces in deep ice cores (Gow, 1971; Ikeda and others, 1999; Bender, 2002; Faria and others, in press, and references therein). Particularly critical is the formation – either prior to drilling or during ice-core storage – of micro-inclusions such as solid inclusions, microscopic bubbles and plate-like inclusions (PLIs).
We investigated the large-scale (10–1000 m) and small-scale (mm–cm) variations in size, number and arrangement of air bubbles in the EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) (Antarctica) ice core, down to the end of the bubble/hydrate transition (BHT) zone. On the large scale, the bubble number density shows a general correlation with the palaeo-temperature proxy, δ18O, and the dust concentration, which means that in Holocene ice there are fewer bubbles than in glacial ice. Small-scale variations in bubble number and size were identified and compared. Above the BHT zone there exists a strong anticorrelation between bubble number density and mean bubble size. In glacial ice, layers of high number density and small bubble size are linked with layers with high impurity content, identified as cloudy bands. Therefore, we regard impurities as a controlling factor for the formation and distribution of bubbles in glacial ice. The anticorrelation inverts in the middle of the BHT zone. In the lower part of the BHT zone, bubble-free layers exist that are also associated with cloudy bands. The high contrast in bubble number density in glacial ice, induced by the impurities, indicates a much more pronounced layering in glacial firn than in modern firn.
Tephra-fall deposits from Cook Inlet volcanoes were detected in sediment cores from Tustumena and Paradox Lakes, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, using magnetic susceptibility and petrography. The ages of tephra layers were estimated using 21 14C ages on macrofossils. Tephras layers are typically fine, gray ash, 1–5 mm thick, and composed of varying proportions of glass shards, pumice, and glass-coated phenocrysts. Of the two lakes, Paradox Lake contained a higher frequency of tephra (0.8 tephra/100 yr; 109 over the 13,200-yr record). The unusually large number of tephra in this lake relative to others previously studied in the area is attributed to the lake's physiography, sedimentology, and limnology. The frequency of ash fall was not constant through the Holocene. In Paradox Lake, tephra layers are absent between ca. 800–2200, 3800–4800, and 9000–10,300 cal yr BP, despite continuously layered lacustrine sediment. In contrast, between 5000 and 9000 cal yr BP, an average of 1.7 tephra layers are present per 100 yr. The peak period of tephra fall (7000–9000 cal yr BP; 2.6 tephra/100 yr) in Paradox Lake is consistent with the increase in volcanism between 7000 and 9000 yr ago recorded in the Greenland ice cores.
Childhood maltreatment (CM) has consistently been linked with adverse outcomes including substance use disorders and adult sexual revictimization. Adult sexual victimization itself has been linked with psychopathology but has predominately been studied in women. The current investigation examines the impact of CM and co-occurring psychopathology on adult sexual victimization in men and women, replicating findings in three distinct samples.
Method
We investigated the association between continuous CM factor scores and adult sexual victimization in the Childhood Trauma Study (CTS) sample (N = 2564). We also examined the unique relationship between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and adult sexual victimization while adjusting for co-occurring substance dependence and psychopathology. We replicated these analyses in two additional samples: the Comorbidity and Trauma Study (CATS; N = 1981) and the Australian Twin-Family Study of Alcohol Use Disorders (OZ-ALC; N = 1537).
Results
Analyses revealed a significant association with CM factor scores and adult sexual victimization for both men and women across all three samples. The CSA factor score was strongly associated with adult sexual victimization after adjusting for substance dependence and psychopathology; higher odds ratios were observed in men (than women) consistently across the three samples.
Conclusions
A continuous measure of CSA is independently associated with adult sexual trauma risk across samples in models that included commonly associated substance dependence and psychopathology as covariates. The strength of the association between this CSA measure and adult sexual victimization is higher in magnitude for men than women, pointing to the need for further investigation of sexual victimization in male community samples.
There is evidence that headache response rates may be higher if triptans are used early when a migraine attack is still mild, as compared to when it is treated after pain has reached moderate or severe intensity.
Methods:
In this randomized, double blind, placebo controlled, parallel group clinical trial, 361 patients took either placebo, sumatriptan 50 mg, or sumatriptan 100 mg in a single attack study. The primary outcome measure was pain-free status at two hours.
Results:
In the intention to treat group, two hour pain free rates were 16%, 40%, and 50% in the placebo group, sumatriptan 50 mg group, and the sumatriptan 100 mg group respectively (p<0.001, active treatment groups vs. placebo).
Conclusions:
Both sumatriptan 50 mg and 100 mg were significantly superior to placebo for the pain-free end point at two hours. The pain-free response rates in this trial where sumatriptan was taken while the headache was still mild were generally higher than in older clinical trials where headache was treated after reaching a moderate or severe intensity.
To examine demographic characteristics and clinical features of headache patients referred to neurologists specializing in headache in Canada.
Methods:
Demographic and clinical data were collected at the time of consultation for 865 new headache patients referred to five headache-specialty clinics in Canada. The Headache Impact Test (HIT-6) and Migraine Disability Questionnaire (MIDAS) were used to measure headache impact and disability. Data were analyzed as part of the Canadian Headache Outpatient Registry and Database (CHORD) Project.
Results:
The average age of the patients was 40 years and the majority were female (78%). Most were employed either full time (49%) or part time (13%). The majority of patients were diagnosed with either migraine or tension-type headache (78%). Over a third of patients experienced headache every day, and half had experienced a headache in the previous month which was of severe intensity. Most (80%) scored in the “very severe” category of the HIT-6 and over half (55%) were severely disabled as measured by the MIDAS.
Conclusion:
Patients referred to headache specialists in Canada are severely disabled by their headache disorders. These patients are in the most productive phase of their lives in terms of age and employment. It is important to provide the best available treatment to headache patients in order to minimize the disability and impact of their headache disorders.