We describe an outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease linked to an exclusive cold-water source in a private residential setting in Yorkshire. The cold-water source was identified following microbiological testing of clinical and environmental samples. Legionella pneumophila was only detected in the cold-water system. Three cases were identified over the course of the outbreak: two confirmed and one probable. Conditions favourable to bacterial growth included system ‘dead legs’ and significant heat transfer to the cold-water system. We describe challenges in implementing control measures at the venue and highlight the importance of using enforcement powers, where necessary, to reduce risk.

Plant-based milks provide an alternative for those on special diets and where ethical or environmental concerns influence food choice, yet questions remain regarding their nutritional value, particularly as a cow’s milk replacement, while regulations regarding fortification may impact the category. The aim of this study was to compare a cross-sectional survey of plant-based milk alternatives available in major Australian supermarkets and selected niche food retailers from 2024 to data previously published 2019/20(1). Change in the category was assessed and permissions for fortified nutrients were examined. A total of 129 products (120 plain, unsweetened products) were analysed, including tree nuts and seeds (n = 47, stable), legumes (n = 26, stable), coconut (n = 5, down from n = 10), grain-based (n = 47, up 147%) and mixed sources (n = 4, down from n = 10). Interestingly, 33% of this category was now refrigerated, a change from the shelf-stable products of the past. Compared to 2019/20 substantially more products were nutrient fortified, 83% vs 50% respectively, and nearly half (49%) now contain ≥ 300 mg Calcium/250 ml, up from 1/3 of products in the previous audit. A wider range of other nutrients were also fortified including B12 (n = 29), Riboflavin (n = 28), Phosphorus, Vitamin E (both n = 20) and Vitamin D (n = 19). Potassium, Magnesium and Vitamin A were also added to a smaller number of products. Schedule 17 of the Food Standards Code(2) limits fortification of Iodine (7.5 μg/100 ml) with one grain-based product indicating the addition of Iodine. There is a limit on Zinc (0.4 mg/100 mL) with no permitted claim, and for B12 the maximum permitted claim is 0.4 μg/100 ml. While it remains important for health professionals to direct consumers to read food labels for appropriately fortified products, this study points to a need to reconsider the micronutrient limitations placed on category.

The interaction between porous structures and flows with mean and oscillatory components has many applications in fluid dynamics. One such application is the hydrodynamic forces on offshore jacket structures from waves and current, which have been shown to give a significant blockage effect, leading to a reduction in drag forces. To better understand this, we derived analytical expressions that describe the effect of current on drag forces from large waves, and conducted experiments that measured forces on a model jacket in collinear waves and currents. We utilised symmetry and phase-inversion techniques, relying on the underlying physics of wave structure interaction, to separate Morison drag and inertia-type forces and to decompose these forces into their respective frequency harmonics. We find that the odd harmonics of the drag force mostly contain the loads from waves, while even harmonics vary much more rapidly with the current speed flowing through the jacket. At the time of peak force, these current speeds were estimated to be 40 % of the undisturbed current and 50 % of the industry-standard estimates, a result that has significant implications for design and re-assessment of jackets. At times away from the peak force, when there are no waves and only current, the blockage effects are reduced. Hence, the variation in blocked current speeds appears to occur on a relatively fast time scale similar to the compact wave envelope. These findings may be generalisable to any jacket-type structure in flows with mean and high Keulegan–Carpenter number oscillatory components.

Regression is a fundamental prediction task common in data-centric engineering applications that involves learning mappings between continuous variables. In many engineering applications (e.g., structural health monitoring), feature-label pairs used to learn such mappings are of limited availability, which hinders the effectiveness of traditional supervised machine learning approaches. This paper proposes a methodology for overcoming the issue of data scarcity by combining active learning (AL) for regression with hierarchical Bayesian modeling. AL is an approach for preferentially acquiring feature-label pairs in a resource-efficient manner. In particular, the current work adopts a risk-informed approach that leverages contextual information associated with regression-based engineering decision-making tasks (e.g., inspection and maintenance). Hierarchical Bayesian modeling allow multiple related regression tasks to be learned over a population, capturing local and global effects. The information sharing facilitated by this modeling approach means that information acquired for one engineering system can improve predictive performance across the population. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an experimental case study. Specifically, multiple regressions are performed over a population of machining tools, where the quantity of interest is the surface roughness of the workpieces. An inspection and maintenance decision process is defined using these regression tasks, which is in turn used to construct the active-learning algorithm. The novel methodology proposed is benchmarked against an uninformed approach to label acquisition and independent modeling of the regression tasks. It is shown that the proposed approach has superior performance in terms of expected cost—maintaining predictive performance while reducing the number of inspections required.

Spatial analysis and disease mapping have the potential to enhance understanding of tuberculosis (TB) dynamics, whose spatial dynamics may be complicated by the mix of short and long-range transmission and long latency periods. TB notifications in Nam Dinh Province for individuals aged 15 and older from 2013 to 2022 were analyzed with a variety of spatio-temporal methods. The study commenced with an analysis of spatial autocorrelation to identify clustering patterns, followed by the evaluation of several candidate Bayesian spatio-temporal models. These models varied from simple assessments of spatial heterogeneity to more complex configurations incorporating covariates and interactions. The findings highlighted a peak in the TB notification rate in 2017, with 98 cases per 100,000 population, followed by a sharp decline in 2021. Significant spatial autocorrelation at the commune level was detected over most of the 10-year period. The Bayesian model that best balanced goodness-of-fit and complexity indicated that TB trends were associated with poverty: each percentage point increase in the proportion of poor households was associated with a 1.3% increase in TB notifications, emphasizing a significant socioeconomic factor in TB transmission dynamics. The integration of local socioeconomic data with spatio-temporal analysis could further enhance our understanding of TB epidemiology.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious communicable disease, with a high incidence in children aged under 10 years. It is a mainly self-limiting disease but can also cause serious neurological or cardiopulmonary complications in some cases, which can lead to death. Little is known about the burden of HMFD on primary care health care services in the UK. The aim of this work was to describe trends in general practitioner (GP) consultations for HFMD in England from January 2017 to December 2022 using a syndromic surveillance network of GPs. Daily GP consultations for HFMD in England were extracted from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2022. Mean weekly consultation rates per 100,000 population and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Consultation rates and rate ratios (RR) were calculated by age group and sex. During the study period, the mean weekly consultation rate for HFMD (per 100,000 registered GP patients) was 1.53 (range of 0.27 to 2.47). In England, children aged 1–4 years old accounted for the largest affected population followed by children <1 years old. We observed a seasonal pattern of HFMD incidence during the non-COVID years, with a seasonal peak of mean weekly rates between months of September and December. HFMD is typically diagnosed clinically rather than through laboratory sampling. Therefore, the ability to look at the daily HFMD consultation rates provides an excellent epidemiological overview on disease trends. The use of a novel GP-in-hours surveillance system allowed a unique epidemiological insight into the recent trends of general practitioner consultations for HFMD. We demonstrate a male predominance of cases, the impact of the non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a change in the week in which the peak number of cases happens post-pandemic.

Hypereutrophic Grand Lake St Marys (GLSM) is a large (52 km2), shallow (mean depth ~ 1.5 m) reservoir in an agricultural watershed of western Ohio (USA). GLSM suffers from extensive cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cHABs) that persist much of the year, resulting in total microcystin concentrations that are often above safe contact levels. Over two summers (2020 and 2021), two phosphorus (P) binding agents (alum and lanthanum/bentonite clay Phoslock, respectively), in conjunction with a P-binding algaecide (SeClear) in 2021, were applied to a 3.24-ha enclosure to mitigate cHAB activity and create a ‘safe’ recreational space for the public. We evaluated these applications by comparing total phosphorus (TP), total microcystin, total chlorophyll, and phycocyanin concentrations within the enclosure and the adjacent lake. Some evidence for short-term reductions in TP, microcystin, chlorophyll, and phycocyanin concentrations were observed following each P binding treatment, but all parameters rapidly returned to or exceeded pre-application levels within 2–3 weeks after treatment. These results suggest that in-lake chemical treatments to mitigate cHABs are unlikely to provide long-lasting benefits in these semi-enclosed areas of large, shallow, hypereutrophic systems, and resources may be better applied toward reducing external nutrient loads (P and nitrogen) from the watershed.

The relevance of education and outreach (E&O) activities about the Antarctic Treaty has been recognized at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings (ATCM) and at the Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP). This study examines the key topics and the target audiences detailed in papers submitted to the ATCM on E&O. Since the Antarctic Treaty entered into force in 1961, a total of 216 ATCM papers on E&O have been produced. The number of papers has increased substantially since the mid-1990s. ‘Science’ (76.9%) and ‘Wildlife/Biodiversity/Environment’ (75.5%) were the most addressed topics in these papers, while the ‘Public’ (81.0%) and those attending ‘Schools’ (69.0%) are the main target audiences. ‘Science’ in ATCM papers increased ~120-fold from 1961–1997 to 2015–2023, while ATCM papers discussing engagement with the ‘Public’ increased ~40-fold during the same period. ‘Climate change’ was first mentioned in 2006, and the number of papers per year increased fourfold by 2015–2023. This study shows the increasing interest in E&O through time, addressing key topics to relevant audiences related to the Antarctic region. From an educational perspective, attention should be paid to emerging topics (e.g. equity, diversity and inclusion), and the engagement of early-career professionals and educators should be made a priority.

Leader exemplification involves implicit and explicit claims of high moral values made by a leader. We employed a 2 × 3 experimental design with samples of 265 students in Study 1 and 142 working adults in Study 2 to examine the effects of leader exemplification (exemplification versus no exemplification) and ethical conduct (self-serving, self-sacrificial, and self-other focus) on perceived leader authenticity, trust in leader, and organizational advocacy. In Study 1, we found that exemplification produced elevated levels of perceived authenticity, trust, and advocacy in the form of employment and investment recommendations. We also showed that leader ethical conduct moderated this effect, as ratings were highest following a leader’s self-sacrificial conduct, lowest for self-serving conduct, and moderate for conduct reflecting self-other concerns. In Study 2, we replicated these findings for perceived authenticity and trust, but not organizational advocacy, which yielded mixed results. The leadership implications and future research directions are discussed.

To maximize its value, the design, development and implementation of structural health monitoring (SHM) should focus on its role in facilitating decision support. In this position paper, we offer perspectives on the synergy between SHM and decision-making. We propose a classification of SHM use cases aligning with various dimensions that are closely linked to the respective decision contexts. The types of decisions that have to be supported by the SHM system within these settings are discussed along with the corresponding challenges. We provide an overview of different classes of models that are required for integrating SHM in the decision-making process to support the operation and maintenance of structures and infrastructure systems. Fundamental decision-theoretic principles and state-of-the-art methods for optimizing maintenance and operational decision-making under uncertainty are briefly discussed. Finally, we offer a viewpoint on the appropriate course of action for quantifying, validating, and maximizing the added value generated by SHM. This work aspires to synthesize the different perspectives of the SHM, Prognostic Health Management, and reliability communities, and provide directions to researchers and practitioners working towards more pervasive monitoring-based decision-support.

The increased severity and frequency of bushfires accompanying human-induced global warming have dire implications for biodiversity conservation. Here we investigate the response of a cryptic, cool-climate elapid, the mustard-bellied snake Drysdalia rhodogaster, to the extensive Black Summer fires of 2019/2020 in south-eastern Australia. The species is categorized as Least Concern on the IUCN Red List (last assessed in 2017), but because a large part of its range was burnt during the Black Summer and little was known about its ecology, D. rhodogaster was identified as a priority species for post-fire impact assessment. We evaluated three lines of evidence to assess the impact of the Black Summer fires on D. rhodogaster. Habitat suitability modelling indicated that c. 46% of the predicted range of the species was affected by bushfire. Field surveys conducted 9–36 months post-fire and collation of records from public databases submitted 0–24 months post-fire indicated that D. rhodogaster persisted in burnt landscapes. Fire severity and proportion of the landscape that was burnt within a 1,000-m radius of survey sites were poor predictors of site occupancy by D. rhodogaster. Although conclusions regarding the effects of fire on D. rhodogaster are limited because of the lack of baseline data, it is evident that the species has persisted across the landscape in the wake of extensive bushfires. Our work highlights the need for baseline knowledge on cryptic species even when they are categorized as Least Concern, as otherwise assessments of the impacts of catastrophic events will be constrained.

Understanding the generation of large-scale magnetic fields and flows in magnetohydro-dynamical (MHD) turbulence remains one of the most challenging problems in astrophysical fluid dynamics. Although much work has been done on the kinematic generation of large-scale magnetic fields by turbulence, relatively little attention has been paid to the much more difficult problem in which fields and flows interact on an equal footing. The aim is to find conditions for long-wavelength instabilities of stationary MHD states. Here, we first revisit the formal exposition of the long-wavelength linear instability theory, showing how long-wavelength perturbations are governed by four mean field tensors; we then show how these tensors may be calculated explicitly under the ‘short-sudden’ approximation for the turbulence. For MHD states with relatively little disorder, the linear theory works well: average quantities can be readily calculated, and stability to long-wavelength perturbations determined. However, for disordered basic states, linear perturbations can grow without bound and the purely linear theory, as formulated, cannot be applied. We then address the question of whether there is a linear response for sufficiently weak mean fields and flows in a dynamical (nonlinear) evolution, where perturbations are guaranteed to be bounded. As a preliminary study, we first address the nature of the response in a series of one-dimensional maps. For the full MHD problem, we show that in certain circumstances, there is a clear linear response; however, in others, mean quantities – and hence the nature of the response – can be difficult to calculate.

Accelerating COVID-19 Treatment Interventions and Vaccines (ACTIV) was initiated by the US government to rapidly develop and test vaccines and therapeutics against COVID-19 in 2020. The ACTIV Therapeutics-Clinical Working Group selected ACTIV trial teams and clinical networks to expeditiously develop and launch master protocols based on therapeutic targets and patient populations. The suite of clinical trials was designed to collectively inform therapeutic care for COVID-19 outpatient, inpatient, and intensive care populations globally. In this report, we highlight challenges, strategies, and solutions around clinical protocol development and regulatory approval to document our experience and propose plans for future similar healthcare emergencies.

The Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines (ACTIV) Cross-Trial Statistics Group gathered lessons learned from statisticians responsible for the design and analysis of the 11 ACTIV therapeutic master protocols to inform contemporary trial design as well as preparation for a future pandemic. The ACTIV master protocols were designed to rapidly assess what treatments might save lives, keep people out of the hospital, and help them feel better faster. Study teams initially worked without knowledge of the natural history of disease and thus without key information for design decisions. Moreover, the science of platform trial design was in its infancy. Here, we discuss the statistical design choices made and the adaptations forced by the changing pandemic context. Lessons around critical aspects of trial design are summarized, and recommendations are made for the organization of master protocols in the future.

The Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines Therapeutic-Clinical Working Group members gathered critical recommendations in follow-up to lessons learned manuscripts released earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Lessons around agent prioritization, preclinical therapeutics testing, master protocol design and implementation, drug manufacturing and supply, data sharing, and public–private partnership value are shared to inform responses to future pandemics.