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Clinical trials often struggle to recruit enough participants, with only 10% of eligible patients enrolling. This is concerning for conditions like stroke, where timely decision-making is crucial. Frontline clinicians typically screen patients manually, but this approach can be overwhelming and lead to many eligible patients being overlooked.
Methods:
To address the problem of efficient and inclusive screening for trials, we developed a matching algorithm using imaging and clinical variables gathered as part of the AcT trial (NCT03889249) to automatically screen patients by matching these variables with the trials’ inclusion and exclusion criteria using rule-based logic. We then used the algorithm to identify patients who could have been enrolled in six trials: EASI-TOC (NCT04261478), CATIS-ICAD (NCT04142125), CONVINCE (NCT02898610), TEMPO-2 (NCT02398656), ESCAPE-MEVO (NCT05151172), and ENDOLOW (NCT04167527). To evaluate our algorithm, we compared our findings to the number of enrollments achieved without using a matching algorithm. The algorithm’s performance was validated by comparing results with ground truth from a manual review of two clinicians. The algorithm’s ability to reduce screening time was assessed by comparing it with the average time used by study clinicians.
Results:
The algorithm identified more potentially eligible study candidates than the number of participants enrolled. It also showed over 90% sensitivity and specificity for all trials, and reducing screening time by over 100-fold.
Conclusions:
Automated matching algorithms can help clinicians quickly identify eligible patients and reduce resources needed for enrolment. Additionally, the algorithm can be modified for use in other trials and diseases.
The circadian timing system regulates many aspects of metabolic physiology, including the postprandial response to meals(1). Experimental inversion of circadian and behavioural rhythms by 12 hours adversely effects markers of metabolic health(2). We investigated effects of a more modest 5hour delay in behavioural cycles.
Fourteen participants completed an 8-day in-patient laboratory protocol, with controlled sleepwake opportunities, light-dark cycles, and diet. The 5-hour delay in behavioural cycles was induced by delaying sleep opportunity. We measured: melatonin to confirm central circadian phase; fasting markers and postprandial metabolism; energy expenditure; subjective sleepiness; and appetite, throughout the waking period.
After the phase delay, there was slower gastric emptying at breakfast, lower fasting plasma glucose, higher postprandial plasma glucose and triglycerides, and lower thermic effect of feeding. Any changes were abolished or attenuated within 48-72 hours. Further, we show no difference in 16 h waking energy expenditure.
These data extend our previous findings, which showed no time-of-day effect on energy expenditure in healthy adults.
Diagnosis of acute ischemia typically relies on evidence of ischemic lesions on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), a limited diagnostic resource. We aimed to determine associations of clinical variables and acute infarcts on MRI in patients with suspected low-risk transient ischemic attack (TIA) and minor stroke and to assess their predictive ability.
Methods:
We conducted a post-hoc analysis of the Diagnosis of Uncertain-Origin Benign Transient Neurological Symptoms (DOUBT) study, a prospective, multicenter cohort study investigating the frequency of acute infarcts in patients with low-risk neurological symptoms. Primary outcome parameter was defined as diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)-positive lesions on MRI. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate associations of clinical characteristics with MRI-DWI-positivity. Model performance was evaluated by Harrel’s c-statistic.
Results:
In 1028 patients, age (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.03, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.01–1.05), motor (OR 2.18, 95%CI 1.27–3.65) or speech symptoms (OR 2.53, 95%CI 1.28–4.80), and no previous identical event (OR 1.75, 95%CI 1.07–2.99) were positively associated with MRI-DWI-positivity. Female sex (OR 0.47, 95%CI 0.32–0.68), dizziness and gait instability (OR 0.34, 95%CI 0.14–0.69), normal exam (OR 0.55, 95%CI 0.35–0.85) and resolved symptoms (OR 0.49, 95%CI 0.30–0.78) were negatively associated. Symptom duration and any additional symptoms/symptom combinations were not associated. Predictive ability of the model was moderate (c-statistic 0.72, 95%CI 0.69–0.77).
Conclusion:
Detailed clinical information is helpful in assessing the risk of ischemia in patients with low-risk neurological events, but a predictive model had only moderate discriminative ability. Patients with clinically suspected low-risk TIA or minor stroke require MRI to confirm the diagnosis of cerebral ischemia.
The 7th edition of the Canadian Stroke Best Practice Recommendations (CSBPR) is a comprehensive summary of current evidence-based recommendations, appropriate for use by healthcare providers and system planners, and intended to drive healthcare excellence, improved outcomes and more integrated health systems. This edition includes a new module on the management of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT). Cerebral venous thrombosis is defined as thrombosis of the veins of the brain, including the dural venous sinuses and/or cortical or deep veins. Cerebral venous thrombosis is a rare but potentially life-threatening type of stroke, representing 0.5–1.0% of all stroke admissions. The reported rates of CVT are approximately 10–20 per million and appear to be increasing over time. The risk of CVT is higher in women and often associated with oral contraceptive use and with pregnancy and the puerperium. This guideline addresses care for adult individuals who present to the healthcare system with current or recent symptoms of CVT. The recommendations cover the continuum of care from diagnosis and initial clinical assessment of symptomatic CVT, to acute treatment of symptomatic CVT, post-acute management, person-centered care, special considerations in the long-term management of CVT, including pregnancy and considerations related to CVT in special circumstances such as trauma and vaccination. This module also includes supporting materials such as implementation resources to facilitate the adoption of evidence into practice and performance measures to enable monitoring of uptake and effectiveness of recommendations.
Background: Cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) is a rare cause of stroke, with 10–15% of patients experiencing dependence or death. The role of endovascular therapy (EVT) in the management of CVT remains controversial and practice patterns are not well-known. Methods: We distributed a comprehensive 53-question survey to neurologists, neuro-interventionalists, neurosurgeons and other relevant clinicians globally from May 2023 to October 2023. The survey asked about practice patterns and perspectives on EVT for CVT and assessed opinions regarding future clinical trials. Results: The overall response rate was 31% (863 respondents from 2744 invited participants) across 61 countries. A majority (74%) supported use of EVT for certain CVT cases. Key considerations for EVT included worsening level of consciousness (86%) and other clinical deficits (76%). Mechanical thrombectomy with aspiration (22%) and stent retriever (19%) were the most utilized techniques, with regional variations. Post-procedurally, low molecular weight heparin was the predominant anticoagulant administered (40%), although North American respondents favored unfractionated heparin. Most respondents supported future trials of EVT (90%). Conclusions: Our survey reveals significant heterogeneity in approaches to EVT for CVT, highlighting the necessity for adequately powered clinical trials to guide standard-of-care practices.
Background: Cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT)most commonly affects younger women. Diagnosis may be delayed due to its distinct presentation and demographic profile compared to other stroke types. Methods: We examined delays to diagnosis of CVT in the SECRET randomized trial and TOP-SECRET parallel registry. Adults diagnosed with symptomatic CVT within <14 days were included. We examined time to diagnosis and number of health care encounters prior to diagnosis and associations with demographics, clinical and radiologic features and functional and patient-reported outcomes (PROMS) at days 180&365. Results: Of 103 participants, 68.9% were female; median age was 45 (IQR 31.0-61.0). Median time from symptom onset to diagnosis was 4 (1-8) days. Diagnosis on first presentation to medical attention was made in 60.2%. The difference in time to diagnosis for single versus multiple presentations was on the order of days (3[1-7] vs. 5[2-11.75], p=0.16). Women were likelier to have multiple presentations (OR 2.53; 95% CI1.00-6.39; p=0.05) and longer median times to diagnosis (5[2-8]days vs. 2[1-4.5] days; p=0.005). However, this was not associated with absolute or change in functional, or any patient reported, outcome measures (PROMs) at days 180&365. Conclusions: Diagnosis of CVT was commonly delayed; women were likelier to have multiple presentations. We found no association between delayed diagnosis and outcomes.
Background: Adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD) are at risk for stroke and dementia. We report baseline and Year 1 results from an ongoing study assessing brain health in people with moderate- and great-complexity ACHD. Methods: Participants aged ≥18 undergo baseline and Year-3 brain MRI/MRA and annual cognitive assessment (MoCA, NIH Toolbox-Cognitive Battery (NIH-TB)). Results: Of 93 participants to date, 79 (85%) have completed Year 1 follow-up. At baseline, the great-complexity group had lower MoCA (26.32 vs. 27.38; p=0.04) and NIH-TB scores (total composite 45.63 vs. 52.80; p=0.002) than the moderate-complexity group. Year-1 testing showed numerical improvements across cognitive batteries in both groups. More participants with great-complexity ACHD had white matter hyperintensities (WMH; 72% vs. 55%; p=0.21) and cerebral microbleeds (CMBs; 72% vs. 54%; p=0.17) on baseline neuroimaging, but differences were not significant. Conclusions: Baseline neuroimaging shows a greater-than-expected burden for age of CMB and WMH in the context of previous cardiac surgery. Baseline cognitive performance was worse with great-complexity ACHD. Improved cognitive battery performance across both subgroups at Year-1 suggests a practice effect. Repeat neuroimaging will be performed in Year-3 and cognitive performance is reassessed annually.
The modern marine megafauna is known to play important ecological roles and includes many charismatic species that have drawn the attention of both the scientific community and the public. However, the extinct marine megafauna has never been assessed as a whole, nor has it been defined in deep time. Here, we review the literature to define and list the species that constitute the extinct marine megafauna, and to explore biological and ecological patterns throughout the Phanerozoic. We propose a size cut-off of 1 m of length to define the extinct marine megafauna. Based on this definition, we list 706 taxa belonging to eight main groups. We found that the extinct marine megafauna was conspicuous over the Phanerozoic and ubiquitous across all geological eras and periods, with the Mesozoic, especially the Cretaceous, having the greatest number of taxa. Marine reptiles include the largest size recorded (21 m; Shonisaurus sikanniensis) and contain the highest number of extinct marine megafaunal taxa. This contrasts with today’s assemblage, where marine animals achieve sizes of >30 m. The extinct marine megafaunal taxa were found to be well-represented in the Paleobiology Database, but not better sampled than their smaller counterparts. Among the extinct marine megafauna, there appears to be an overall increase in body size through time. Most extinct megafaunal taxa were inferred to be macropredators preferentially living in coastal environments. Across the Phanerozoic, megafaunal species had similar extinction risks as smaller species, in stark contrast to modern oceans where the large species are most affected by human perturbations. Our work represents a first step towards a better understanding of the marine megafauna that lived in the geological past. However, more work is required to expand our list of taxa and their traits so that we can obtain a more complete picture of their ecology and evolution.
The Stricker Learning Span (SLS) is a computer-adaptive word list memory test specifically designed for remote assessment and self-administration on a web-based multi-device platform (Mayo Test Drive). Given recent evidence suggesting the prominence of learning impairment in preclinical Alzheimer’s disease (AD), the SLS places greater emphasis on learning than delayed memory compared to traditional word list memory tests (see Stricker et al., Neuropsychology in press for review and test details). The primary study aim was to establish criterion validity of the SLS by comparing the ability of the remotely-administered SLS and inperson administered Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (AVLT) to differentiate biomarkerdefined groups in cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals on the Alzheimer’s continuum.
Participants and Methods:
Mayo Clinic Study of Aging CU participants (N=319; mean age=71, SD=11; mean education=16, SD=2; 47% female) completed a brief remote cognitive assessment (∼0.5 months from in-person visit). Brain amyloid and brain tau PET scans were available within 3 years. Overlapping groups were formed for 1) those on the Alzheimer’s disease (AD) continuum (A+, n=110) or not (A-, n=209), and for 2) those with biological AD (A+T+, n=43) vs no evidence of AD pathology (A-T-, n=181). Primary neuropsychological outcome variables were sum of trials for both the SLS and AVLT. Secondary outcome variables examined comparability of learning (1-5 total) and delay performances. Linear model ANOVAs were used to investigate biomarker subgroup differences and Hedge’s G effect sizes were derived, with and without adjusting for demographic variables (age, education, sex).
Results:
Both SLS and AVLT performances were worse in the biomarker positive relative to biomarker negative groups (unadjusted p’s<.05). Because biomarker positive groups were significantly older than biomarker negative groups, group differences were attenuated after adjusting for demographic variables, but SLS remained significant for A+ vs A- and for A+T+ vs A-T- comparisons (adjusted p’s<.05) and AVLT approached significance (p’s .05-.10). The effect sizes for the SLS were slightly better (qualitatively, no statistical comparison) for separating biomarker-defined CU groups in comparison to AVLT. For A+ vs A- and A+T+ vs A-T- comparisons, unadjusted effect sizes for SLS were -0.53 and -0.81 and for AVLT were -0.47 and -0.61, respectively; adjusted effect sizes for SLS were -0.25 and -0.42 and for AVLT were -0.19 and -0.26, respectively. In secondary analyses, learning and delay variables were similar in terms of ability to separate biomarker groups. For example, unadjusted effect sizes for SLS learning (-.80) was similar to SLS delay (.76), and AVLT learning (-.58) was similar to AVLT 30-minute delay (-.55) for the A+T+ vs AT- comparison.
Conclusions:
Remotely administered SLS performed similarly to the in-person-administered AVLT in its ability to separate biomarker-defined groups in CU individuals, providing evidence of criterion validity. The SLS showed significantly worse performance in A+ and A+T+ groups (relative to A- and A-T-groups) in this CU sample after demographic adjustment, suggesting potential sensitivity to detecting transitional cognitive decline in preclinical AD. Measures emphasizing learning should be given equal consideration as measures of delayed memory in AD-focused studies, particularly in the preclinical phase.
Mayo Test Drive (MTD): Test Development through Rapid Iteration, Validation and Expansion, is a web-based multi-device (smartphone, tablet, personal computer) platform optimized for remote self-administered cognitive assessment that includes a computer-adaptive word list memory test (Stricker Learning Span; SLS; Stricker et al., 2022; Stricker et al., in press) and a measure of processing speed (Symbols Test: Wilks et al., 2021). Study aims were to determine criterion validity of MTD by comparing the ability of the MTD raw composite and in-person administered cognitive measures to differentiate biomarkerdefined groups in cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals on the Alzheimer’s continuum.
Participants and Methods:
Mayo Clinic Study of Aging CU participants (N=319; mean age=71, SD=11, range=37-94; mean education=16, SD=2, range=6-20; 47% female) completed a brief remote cognitive assessment (∼0.5 months from in-person visit). Brain amyloid and brain tau PET scans were available within 3 years. Overlapping groups were formed for 1) those on the Alzheimer’s disease (AD) continuum (A+, n=110) or not (A-, n=209), and for 2) those with biological AD (A+T+, n=43) or with no evidence of AD pathology (A-T-, n=181). Primary outcome variables were MTD raw composite (SLS sum of trials + an accuracy-weighted Symbols response time measure), Global-z (average of 9 in-person neuropsychological measures) and an in-person screening measure (Kokmen Short Test of Mental Status, STMS; which is like the MMSE). Linear model ANOVAs were used to investigate biomarker subgroup differences and Hedge’s G effect sizes were derived, with and without adjusting for demographic variables (age, education, sex).
Results:
Remotely administered MTD raw composite showed comparable to slightly larger effect sizes compared to Global-z. Unadjusted effect sizes for MTD raw composite for differentiating A+ vs. A- and A+T+ vs. A-T- groups, respectively, were -0.57 and -0.84 and effect sizes for Global-z were -0.54 and -0.73 (all p’s<.05). Because biomarker positive groups were significantly older than biomarker negative groups, group differences were attenuated after adjusting for demographic variables, but MTD raw composite remained significant for A+T+ vs A-T- (adjusted effect size -0.35, p=.007); Global-z did not reach significance for A+T+ vs A-T- (adjusted effect size -0.19, p=.08). Neither composite reached significance for adjusted analyses for the A+ vs A- comparison (MTD raw composite adjusted effect size= -.22, p=.06; Global-z adjusted effect size= -.08, p=.47). Results were the same for an alternative MTD composite using traditional z-score averaging methods, but the raw score method is preferred for comparability to other screening measures. The STMS screening measure did not differentiate biomarker groups in any analyses (unadjusted and adjusted p’s>.05; d’s -0.23 to 0.05).
Conclusions:
Remotely administered MTD raw composite shows at least similar ability to separate biomarker-defined groups in CU individuals as a Global-z for person-administered measures within a neuropsychological battery, providing evidence of criterion validity. Both the MTD raw composite and Global-z showed greater ability to separate biomarker positive from negative CU groups compared to a typical screening measure (STMS) that was unable to differentiate these groups. MTD may be useful as a screening measure to aid early detection of Alzheimer’s pathological changes.
Normative neuropsychological data are essential for interpretation of test performance in the context of demographic factors. The Mayo Normative Studies (MNS) aim to provide updated normative data for neuropsychological measures administered in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA), a population-based study of aging that randomly samples residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, from age- and sex-stratified groups. We examined demographic effects on neuropsychological measures and validated the regression-based norms in comparison to existing normative data developed in a similar sample.
Method:
The MNS includes cognitively unimpaired adults ≥30 years of age (n = 4,428) participating in the MCSA. Multivariable linear regressions were used to determine demographic effects on test performance. Regression-based normative formulas were developed by first converting raw scores to normalized scaled scores and then regressing on age, age2, sex, and education. Total and sex-stratified base rates of low scores (T < 40) were examined in an older adult validation sample and compared with Mayo’s Older Americans Normative Studies (MOANS) norms.
Results:
Independent linear regressions revealed variable patterns of linear and/or quadratic effects of age (r2 = 6–27% variance explained), sex (0–13%), and education (2–10%) across measures. MNS norms improved base rates of low performance in the older adult validation sample overall and in sex-specific patterns relative to MOANS.
Conclusions:
Our results demonstrate the need for updated norms that consider complex demographic associations on test performance and that specifically exclude participants with mild cognitive impairment from the normative sample.
This accessible and practical textbook gives students the perfect guide to the use of regression models in testing and evaluating hypotheses dealing with social relationships. A range of statistical methods suited to a wide variety of dependent variables is explained, which will allow students to read, understand, and interpret complex statistical analyses of social data. Each chapter contains example applications using relevant statistical methods in both Stata and R, giving students direct experience of applying their knowledge. A full suite of online resources - including statistical command files, datasets and results files, homework assignments, class discussion topics, PowerPoint slides, and exam questions - supports the student to work independently with the data, and the instructor to deliver the most effective possible course. This is the ideal textbook for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students taking courses in applied social statistics.
In Chapter 12 we discussed the modeling and fitting of a logistic regression equation with a dependent variable with three or more ordered categories. In this chapter we discuss the modelling and fitting of a logistic regression equation with a multi-categorical dependent variable, but here the dependent variable will have response categories that are not ordered, that is, they are nominal. The most frequently used method for estimating a nominal categorical dependent variable is the multinomial logistic regression model, the subject of this chapter. This model is a natural extension of logistic regression for a binary dependent variable.
Many of the dependent variables analyzed in the social sciences involve a time period of nonoccurrence prior to their occurrence. Demographers study death; but one cannot die without being born. Thus, one’s death is preceded by a time period after the person has been born during which time they do not die. Such a dependent variable is referred to as a time-to-event variable because there must be a time period of nonoccurrence before the event occurs. Such analyses have several names. The broadest ones are survival analysis or hazard analysis, owing to their early development in biostatistics and epidemiology, where researchers modeled the occurrence of death. The event of death was referred to as a hazard. Persons over a time interval not experiencing the hazard, that is, not dying, were referred to as surviving the hazard. There are two main types of survival models, continuous-time models and discrete-time methods. We direct most of our attention in this chapter to continuous-time models of survival analysis, and specifically to the Cox proportional hazard model. In the last section of the chapter, we focus on discrete-time survival models.
Many dependent variables analyzed in the social sciences are not continuous, but are dichotomous, with a yes/no response. A dichotomous dependent variable takes on only two values; the value 1 represents yes, and the value 0, no. The independent variables in the regression model are then used to predict whether the subjects fall into one of the two dependent variable categories. In this chapter we discuss the modeling of a dichotomous dependent variable and show why ordinary least squares regression is not appropriate. We discuss the logistic regression model. We fit a logistic regression equation and address several statistical concepts and issues: log likelihoods, the likelihood ratio chi-squared statistic, Pseudo R2, model adequacy, and statistical significance. We then discuss the interpretation of logit coefficients, odds ratios, standardized logit coefficients, and standardized odds ratios. We show how to use “margins” in the interpretation of logit models with predicted probabilities. The last sections deal with testing and evaluating nested logit models, and with comparing logit models with probit models.
In this chapter we present brief discussions of a few statistical topics not covered in earlier chapters. We first cover structural equation models, factor analysis, and path analysis. In future work fitting regression models in the social sciences, we frequently see reference to one or more of them. In the second section of the chapter, we address in summary form a few topics already discussed but which we believe require some additional attention. For instance, as part of our discussion of ordinary least squares regression, we covered in Chapter 8 the topic of regression diagnostics. But regression diagnostics is not an issue applicable only to OLS regression; so we present here a further discussion. Similarly, we expand with some additional commentary our earlier discussions of addressing issues of survey design (covered in Chapter 10) and multilevel models (covered in Chapter 16).
This chapter covers the two topics of descriptive statistics and the normal distribution. We first discuss the role of descriptive statistics and the measures of central tendency, variance, and standard deviation. We also provide examples of the kinds of graphs often used in descriptive statistics. We next discuss the normal distribution, its properties and its role in descriptive and inferential statistical analysis.