Regression is a fundamental prediction task common in data-centric engineering applications that involves learning mappings between continuous variables. In many engineering applications (e.g., structural health monitoring), feature-label pairs used to learn such mappings are of limited availability, which hinders the effectiveness of traditional supervised machine learning approaches. This paper proposes a methodology for overcoming the issue of data scarcity by combining active learning (AL) for regression with hierarchical Bayesian modeling. AL is an approach for preferentially acquiring feature-label pairs in a resource-efficient manner. In particular, the current work adopts a risk-informed approach that leverages contextual information associated with regression-based engineering decision-making tasks (e.g., inspection and maintenance). Hierarchical Bayesian modeling allow multiple related regression tasks to be learned over a population, capturing local and global effects. The information sharing facilitated by this modeling approach means that information acquired for one engineering system can improve predictive performance across the population. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an experimental case study. Specifically, multiple regressions are performed over a population of machining tools, where the quantity of interest is the surface roughness of the workpieces. An inspection and maintenance decision process is defined using these regression tasks, which is in turn used to construct the active-learning algorithm. The novel methodology proposed is benchmarked against an uninformed approach to label acquisition and independent modeling of the regression tasks. It is shown that the proposed approach has superior performance in terms of expected cost—maintaining predictive performance while reducing the number of inspections required.

In practice, nondestructive testing (NDT) procedures tend to consider experiments (and their respective models) as distinct, conducted in isolation, and associated with independent data. In contrast, this work looks to capture the interdependencies between acoustic emission (AE) experiments (as meta-models) and then use the resulting functions to predict the model hyperparameters for previously unobserved systems. We utilize a Bayesian multilevel approach (similar to deep Gaussian Processes) where a higher-level meta-model captures the inter-task relationships. Our key contribution is how knowledge of the experimental campaign can be encoded between tasks as well as within tasks. We present an example of AE time-of-arrival mapping for source localization, to illustrate how multilevel models naturally lend themselves to representing aggregate systems in engineering. We constrain the meta-model based on domain knowledge, then use the inter-task functions for transfer learning, predicting hyperparameters for models of previously unobserved experiments (for a specific design).

The writings of George Finlay are usually viewed through the lenses of philhellenism and the Greek Revolution. This work seeks instead to locate them in the transnational intellectual canvas of the nineteenth century, principally in relation to the writings of George Bancroft, in whose History of the United States Finlay left extensive marginalia. Finlay's comments on Bancroft's work exemplify two disparate styles of historiography in the period. This study attributes such a divide to Finlay's and Bancroft's divergent worldviews, conflicting methodologies and contrasting motivations as historians working on either side of the Atlantic in the Age of Revolutions. The analysis of the dialogical exchange between the two scholars has much to contribute towards a global history of historical thought during a liminal period for history as a discipline. Finlay's annotations offer much for our understanding of Bancroft's reception outside of the United States, especially in ‘peripheral’ regions like the Eastern Mediterranean that are often overlooked when studying intellectual exchanges between Europe and America. Further, owing to the connection that he draws between national institutions and the writing of history, Finlay's marginalia give a clear indication of his vision for the optimal socio-political organisation of post-revolutionary states like the United States and the Kingdom of Greece. In this article, I suggest that Finlay's work was thus essentially didactic in contrast to Bancroft's teleological method of historical enquiry, giving greater insight into the different methods and purposes of historical writing in the nineteenth century.

Introduction: Emergency care serves as an important health resource for First Nations (FN) persons. Previous reporting shows that FN persons visit emergency departments at almost double the rate of non-FN persons. Working collaboratively with FN partners, academic researchers and health authority staff, the objective of this study is to investigate FN emergency care patient visit statistics in Alberta over a five year period. Methods: Through a population-based retrospective cohort study for the period from April 1, 2012 to March 31, 2017, patient demographics and emergency care visit characteristics for status FN patients in Alberta were analyzed and compared to non-FN statistics. Frequencies and percentages (%) describe patients and visits by categorical variables (e.g., Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS)). Means and standard deviations (medians and interquartile ranges (IQR)) describe continuous variables (e.g., distances) as appropriate for the data distribution. These descriptions are repeated for the FN and non-FN populations, separately. Results: The data set contains 11,686,288 emergency facility visits by 3,024,491 unique persons. FN people make up 4.8% of unique patients and 9.4% of emergency care visits. FN persons live further from emergency facilities than their non-FN counterparts (FN median 6 km, IQR 1-24; vs. non-FN median 4 km, IQR 2-8). FN visits arrive more often by ground ambulance (15.3% vs. 10%). FN visits are more commonly triaged as less acute (59% CTAS levels 4 and 5, compared to non-FN 50.4%). More FN visits end in leaving without completing treatment (6.7% vs. 3.6%). FN visits are more often in the evening – 4:01pm to 12:00am (43.6% vs. 38.1%). Conclusion: In a collaborative validation session, FN Elders and health directors contextualized emergency care presentation in evenings and receiving less acute triage scores as related to difficulties accessing primary care. They explained presentation in evenings, arrival by ambulance, and leaving without completing treatment in terms of issues accessing transport to and from emergency facilities. Many factors interact to determine FN patients’ emergency care visit characteristics and outcomes. Further research needs to separate the impact of FN identity from factors such as reasons for visiting emergency facilities, distance traveled to care, and the size of facility where care is provided.

We present a detailed overview of the cosmological surveys that we aim to carry out with Phase 1 of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA1) and the science that they will enable. We highlight three main surveys: a medium-deep continuum weak lensing and low-redshift spectroscopic HI galaxy survey over 5 000 deg2; a wide and deep continuum galaxy and HI intensity mapping (IM) survey over 20 000 deg2 from $z = 0.35$ to 3; and a deep, high-redshift HI IM survey over 100 deg2 from $z = 3$ to 6. Taken together, these surveys will achieve an array of important scientific goals: measuring the equation of state of dark energy out to $z \sim 3$ with percent-level precision measurements of the cosmic expansion rate; constraining possible deviations from General Relativity on cosmological scales by measuring the growth rate of structure through multiple independent methods; mapping the structure of the Universe on the largest accessible scales, thus constraining fundamental properties such as isotropy, homogeneity, and non-Gaussianity; and measuring the HI density and bias out to $z = 6$. These surveys will also provide highly complementary clustering and weak lensing measurements that have independent systematic uncertainties to those of optical and near-infrared (NIR) surveys like Euclid, LSST, and WFIRST leading to a multitude of synergies that can improve constraints significantly beyond what optical or radio surveys can achieve on their own. This document, the 2018 Red Book, provides reference technical specifications, cosmological parameter forecasts, and an overview of relevant systematic effects for the three key surveys and will be regularly updated by the Cosmology Science Working Group in the run up to start of operations and the Key Science Programme of SKA1.

The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) is a planned large radio interferometer designed to operate over a wide range of frequencies, and with an order of magnitude greater sensitivity and survey speed than any current radio telescope. The SKA will address many important topics in astronomy, ranging from planet formation to distant galaxies. However, in this work, we consider the perspective of the SKA as a facility for studying physics. We review four areas in which the SKA is expected to make major contributions to our understanding of fundamental physics: cosmic dawn and reionisation; gravity and gravitational radiation; cosmology and dark energy; and dark matter and astroparticle physics. These discussions demonstrate that the SKA will be a spectacular physics machine, which will provide many new breakthroughs and novel insights on matter, energy, and spacetime.

To determine the burden of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI), the nature of antimicrobial prescribing and factors contributing to inappropriate prescribing for SSTIs in Australian aged care facilities, SSTI and antimicrobial prescribing data were collected via a standardised national survey. The proportion of residents prescribed ⩾1 antimicrobial for presumed SSTI and the proportion whose infections met McGeer et al. surveillance definitions were determined. Antimicrobial choice was compared to national prescribing guidelines and prescription duration analysed using a negative binomial mixed-effects regression model. Of 12 319 surveyed residents, 452 (3.7%) were prescribed an antimicrobial for a SSTI and 29% of these residents had confirmed infection. Topical clotrimazole was most frequently prescribed, often for unspecified indications. Where an indication was documented, antimicrobial choice was generally aligned with recommendations. Duration of prescribing (in days) was associated with use of an agent for prophylaxis (rate ratio (RR) 1.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–2.52), PRN orders (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.42–3.11) and prescription of a topical agent (RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.08–2.02), while documentation of a review or stop date was associated with reduced duration of prescribing (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.25–0.43). Antimicrobial prescribing for SSTI is frequent in aged care facilities in Australia. Methods to enhance appropriate prescribing, including clinician documentation, are required.

A method is described of determining the thickness of a valley glacier from measurements of gravity. On a Norwegian glacier approximately 4 km. long and km. wide values of gravity were measured at points on four transverse lines. For comparison, values were measured at points on three lines in the valley below the snout of the glacier. The positions and altitudes of these gravity stations were determined by triangulation. After making corrections for the altitudes of stations and for the effect of the valley walls, the differences between the gravity values obtained on the glacier and those obtained in the valley below the glacier are attributed to the thickness of the ice. Four transverse sections of the glacier, obtained in this way, are given. Errors in the estimates of ice thickness should not exceed 20 per cent on the two lower cross-sections, nor 40 per cent on the upper two.

Transverse curvature effects in axi-symmetric flow on a circulai cylinder are discussed and it is deduced that for small δ/a, where δ is the boundary layer thickness and a is the cylinder radius, transverse curvature effects are small, for δ/a = 0(1) the effect is felt mainly in the outer region and for δ/a » 1, both the inner and the outer regions are affected. It is argued that the last case can only be achieved experimentally in the laboratory if the radius Reynolds number Ra= U1a/v is small and the streamwise Reynolds number Rx=U1xlv is large, implying x/a large. New experimental data are presented for this case. The data show that both the mean and turbulent flow field scale on outer variables throughout the layer and, for Ra≥455, exhibit Reynolds number independence. No logarithmic region is found in the mean profiles, a result which is echoed by the absence of a shoulder in the streamwise turbulence profiles which clearly evidence that the flow in the layer is fully turbulent. A flow model is suggested, in physical terms, to explain the very high turbulence levels found close to the cylinder at values of Ra which should, according to stability theory, be bordering on laminar flow.

The targeting of mcrA or 16S rRNA genes by quantitative PCR (qPCR) has become the dominant method for quantifying methanogens in rumen. There are considerable discrepancies between estimates based on different primer sets, and the literature is equivocal about the relationship with methane production. There are a number of problems with qPCR, including low primer specificity, multiple copies of genes and multiple genomes per cell. Accordingly, we have investigated alternative markers for methanogens, on the basis of the distinctive ether lipids of archaeal cell membranes. The membranes of Archaea contain dialkyl glycerol ethers such as 2,3-diphytanayl-O-sn-glycerol (archaeol), and glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) such as caldarchaeol (GDGT-0) in different proportions. The relationships between estimates of methanogen abundance using qPCR and archaeol measurements varied across primers. Studies in other ecosystems have identified environmental effects on the profile of ether lipids in Archaea. There is a long history of analysing easily accessible samples, such as faeces, urine and milk, to provide information about digestion and metabolism in livestock without the need for intrusive procedures. Purine derivatives in urine and odd-chain fatty acids in milk have been used to study rumen function. The association between volatile fatty acid proportions and methane production is probably the basis for empirical relationships between milk fatty acid profiles and methane production. However, these studies have not yet identified consistent predictors. We have evaluated the relationship between faecal archaeol concentration and methane production across a range of diets in studies on beef and dairy cattle. Faecal archaeol is diagnostic for ruminant faeces being below the limit of detection in faeces from non-ruminant herbivores. The relationship between faecal archaeol and methane production was significant when comparing treatment means across diets, but appears to be subject to considerable between-animal variation. This variation was also evident in the weak relationship between archaeol concentrations in rumen digesta and faeces. We speculate that variation in the distribution and kinetics of methanogens in the rumen may affect the survival and functioning of Archaea in the rumen and therefore contribute to genetic variation in methane production. Indeed, variation in the relationship between the numbers of micro-organisms present in the rumen and those leaving the rumen may explain variation in relationships between methane production and both milk fatty acid profiles and faecal archaeol. As a result, microbial markers in the faeces and milk are unlikely to relate well back to methanogenesis in the rumen. This work has also highlighted the need to describe methanogen abundance in all rumen fractions and this may explain the difficulty interpreting results on the basis of samples taken using stomach tubes or rumenocentesis.

Tuberculosis (TB) in livestock, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, persists in many countries. In the UK and Ireland, efforts to control TB through culling of badgers (Meles meles), the principal wildlife host, have failed and there is significant interest in vaccination of badgers as an alternative or complementary strategy. Using a simulation model, we show that where TB is self-contained within the badger population and there are no external sources of infection, limited-duration vaccination at a high level of efficacy can reduce or even eradicate TB from the badger population. However, where sources of external infection persist, benefits in TB reduction in badgers can only be achieved by ongoing, annual vaccination. Vaccination is likely to be most effective as part of an integrated disease management strategy incorporating a number of different approaches across the entire host community.

The within-row dispersion characteristics of larvae of Antitrogus mussoni (Blackburn), A. parvulus Britton, Lepidiota crinita Brenske, L. negatoria Blackburn, L. noxia Britton and L. picticollis Lea in sugarcane were determined in studies in southern Queensland, Australia. The Poisson distribution, negative binomial distribution, Iwao's regression model and Taylor's power law analysis were used to determine the relationship between mean and variance of larval counts. All methods examined showed that the larvae were slightly aggregated. Taylor's power law generally gave equivalent or better fits to the population dispersion compared with the other models. The power law relationship for L. picticollis differed from those of the other five species, and a common relationship for those five species was determined. Relationships to determine sample sizes for fixed levels of precision and fixed-precision-level stop lines for sequential sampling were developed for both L. picticollis and the other five species. There were functional relationships between the variance and mean of untransformed population counts for all species, and the suitability of transformation functions is discussed.

A key is given to the larval instars, of which there may be nine or more, of Inopus rubriceps (Macq.) and I. flavus (James); the key is based on setal characters and development of the cranial lobes. Characters allowing recognition and sexing of the pupae are also described.

In March 1988 a general practitioner notified two cases of hepatitis A in a private boarding school. Epidemiological investigation, including testing for salivary antibodies revealed a further five cases and established immunity to, and recent infection with, hepatitis A virus (HAV). The pattern of the outbreak was described. A number of practices which would encourage cross-infection were corrected. Normal human immunoglobulin was given to contacts.

Repeat salivary testing 10 weeks later revealed that two more boys had becomereactive for anti-HAV, though at a low titre. These may have been serologicalresponses to HAV infection modified by the passive immunization.

We report the discovery of a biological rhythm in the reproductive behaviour of the tick Bothriocroton hydrosauri that was absent in Amblyomma limbatum, a species that occurs on the same species of reptile host. Female B. hydrosauri mated in autumn or winter delayed oviposition until the following spring, while there was no diapause in conspecific females mated in spring or early summer. Initiation of ovipositional diapause in ticks is usually related to photoperiodic stimuli, but this was not the case for B. hydrosauri. The sinusoidal pattern in pre-oviposition times of B. hydrosauri females mated in different months in the laboratory suggests an internal seasonal time-keeping mechanism. We hypothesize that hormones imbibed by females during their bloodmeal may provide environmental cues associated with the induction of diapause. Irrespective of the mechanism underlying the rhythm, diapause by B. hydrosauri females mated during autumn or winter is of adaptive advantage because it synchronizes oviposition with favourable environmental conditions for egg hatching and increases the chance of larvae finding a host. The lack of a similar biological rhythm in A. limbatum may be a reflection of the different environmental conditions this species experiences throughout most of its range as compared with B. hydrosauri.

The story of Morell Mackenzie and his involvement in the case of Crown Prince Frederick III (the future Emperor of Germany) is as well known as it is controversial. The consequences of the case were profound, both medically and politically. Most documents concerning the case are affected by varying degrees of bias, and as a result our understanding of the true events is incomplete. We present a brief summary of the case, and review an unpublished manuscript which adds to our understanding of the events. This manuscript is supportive of Mackenzie's early management of the Crown Prince's illness and acknowledges the importance of the case in medical history.