We investigate the sums $(1/\sqrt {H}) \sum _{X < n \leq X+H} \chi (n)$, where $\chi $ is a fixed non-principal Dirichlet character modulo a prime q, and $0 \leq X \leq q-1$ is uniformly random. Davenport and Erdős, and more recently Lamzouri, proved central limit theorems for these sums provided $H \rightarrow \infty $ and $(\log H)/\log q \rightarrow 0$ as $q \rightarrow \infty $, and Lamzouri conjectured these should hold subject to the much weaker upper bound $H=o(q/\log q)$. We prove this is false for some $\chi $, even when $H = q/\log ^{A}q$ for any fixed $A> 0$. However, we show it is true for ‘almost all’ characters on the range $q^{1-o(1)} \leq H = o(q)$.

Using Pólya’s Fourier expansion, these results may be reformulated as statements about the distribution of certain Fourier series with number theoretic coefficients. Tools used in the proofs include the existence of characters with large partial sums on short initial segments, and moment estimates for trigonometric polynomials with random multiplicative coefficients.

We obtain large and moderate deviation estimates for both sequential and random compositions of intermittent maps. We also address the question of whether or not centering is necessary for the quenched central limit theorems obtained by Nicol, Török and Vaienti [Central limit theorems for sequential and random intermittent dynamical systems. Ergod. Th. & Dynam. Sys. 38(3) (2018), 1127–1153] for random dynamical systems comprising intermittent maps. Using recent work of Abdelkader and Aimino [On the quenched central limit theorem for random dynamical systems. J. Phys. A 49(24) (2016), 244002] and Hella and Stenlund [Quenched normal approximation for random sequences of transformations. J. Stat. Phys. 178(1) (2020), 1–37] we extend the results of Nicol, Török and Vaienti on quenched central limit theorems for centered observables over random compositions of intermittent maps: first by enlarging the parameter range over which the quenched central limit theorem holds; and second by showing that the variance in the quenched central limit theorem is almost surely constant (and the same as the variance of the annealed central limit theorem) and that centering is needed to obtain this quenched central limit theorem.

In this paper, we study limit behavior for a Markov-modulated binomial counting process, also called a binomial counting process under regime switching. Such a process naturally appears in the context of credit risk when multiple obligors are present. Markov-modulation takes place when the failure/default rate of each individual obligor depends on an underlying Markov chain. The limit behavior under consideration occurs when the number of obligors increases unboundedly, and/or by accelerating the modulating Markov process, called rapid switching. We establish diffusion approximations, obtained by application of (semi)martingale central limit theorems. Depending on the specific circumstances, different approximations are found.

In this paper we consider an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process (M(t))t≥0 whose parameters are determined by an external Markov process (X(t))t≥0 on a finite state space {1, . . ., d}; this process is usually referred to as Markov-modulated Ornstein–Uhlenbeck. We use stochastic integration theory to determine explicit expressions for the mean and variance of M(t). Then we establish a system of partial differential equations (PDEs) for the Laplace transform of M(t) and the state X(t) of the background process, jointly for time epochs t = t1, . . ., tK. Then we use this PDE to set up a recursion that yields all moments of M(t) and its stationary counterpart; we also find an expression for the covariance between M(t) and M(t + u). We then establish a functional central limit theorem for M(t) for the situation that certain parameters of the underlying OU processes are scaled, in combination with the modulating Markov process being accelerated; interestingly, specific scalings lead to drastically different limiting processes. We conclude the paper by considering the situation of a single Markov process modulating multiple OU processes.

Let $\def \xmlpi #1{}\def \mathsfbi #1{\boldsymbol {\mathsf {#1}}}\let \le =\leqslant \let \leq =\leqslant \let \ge =\geqslant \let \geq =\geqslant \def \Pr {\mathit {Pr}}\def \Fr {\mathit {Fr}}\def \Rey {\mathit {Re}}\nu \in M^1([0,\infty [)$ be a fixed probability measure. For each dimension $p\in \mathbb{N}$, let $(X_n^{p})_{n\geq 1}$ be independent and identically distributed $\mathbb{R}^p$-valued random variables with radially symmetric distributions and radial distribution $\nu $. We investigate the distribution of the Euclidean length of $S_n^{p}:=X_1^{p}+\cdots + X_n^{p}$ for large parameters $n$ and $p$. Depending on the growth of the dimension $p=p_n$ we derive by the method of moments two complementary central limit theorems (CLTs)for the functional $\| S_n^{p}\| _2$ with normal limits, namely for $n/p_n \to \infty $ and $n/p_n \to 0$. Moreover, we present a CLT for the case $n/p_n \to c\in \, (0,\infty )$. Thereby we derive explicit formulas and asymptotic results for moments of radial distributed random variables on $\mathbb{R}^p$. All limit theorems are also considered for orthogonal invariant random walks on the space $\mathbb{M}_{p,q}(\mathbb{R})$ of $p\times q$ matrices instead of $\mathbb{R}^p$ for $p\to \infty $ and some fixed dimension $q$.

We consider a stochastic model for the spread of an SIR (susceptible → infective → removed) epidemic among a closed, finite population that contains several types of individuals and is partitioned into households. The infection rate between two individuals depends on the types of the transmitting and receiving individuals and also on whether the infection is local (i.e., within a household) or global (i.e., between households). The exact distribution of the final outcome of the epidemic is outlined. A branching process approximation for the early stages of the epidemic is described and made fully rigorous, by considering a sequence of epidemics in which the number of households tends to infinity and using a coupling argument. This leads to a threshold theorem for the epidemic model. A central limit theorem for the final outcome of epidemics which take off is derived, by exploiting an embedding representation.

This paper considers positive recurrent Markov chains where the probability of remaining in the current state is arbitrarily close to 1. Specifically, conditions are given which ensure the non-existence of central limit theorems for ergodic averages of functionals of the chain. The results are motivated by applications for Metropolis–Hastings algorithms which are constructed in terms of a rejection probability (where a rejection involves remaining at the current state). Two examples for commonly used algorithms are given, for the independence sampler and the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm. The examples are rather specialized, although, in both cases, the problems which arise are typical of problems commonly occurring for the particular algorithm being used.

This paper shows how to calculate solutions to Poisson's equation for the waiting time sequence of the recurrent M/G/l queue. The solutions are used to construct martingales that permit us to study additive functionals associated with the waiting time sequence. These martingales provide asymptotic expressions, for the mean of additive functionals, that reflect dependence on the initial state of the process. In addition, we show how to explicitly calculate the scaling constants that appear in the central limit theorems for additive functionals of the waiting time sequence.

In Gadag and Rajarshi (1987), we studied a bivariate (multitype) branching process based on infinite and finite lines of descent, of particles of a supercritical one-dimensional (multitype) Galton-Watson branching process (GWBP). In this paper, we discuss a few more meaningful and interesting univariate and multitype branching processes, based on exact progeny lengths of particles in a GWBP. Our constructions relax the assumption of supercriticality made in Gadag and Rajarshi (1987). We investigate some finite-time and asymptotic results of these processes in some details and relate them to the original process. These results are then used to propose new and better estimates of the offspring mean. An illustration based on the branching process of the white male population of the USA is also given. We believe that our work offers a rather finer understanding of the branching property.

At times n = 0, 1, 2, · · · a Poisson number of particles enter each state of a countable state space. The particles then move independently according to the transition law of a Markov chain, until their death which occurs at a random time. Several limit theorems are then proved for various functionals of this infinite particle system. In particular, laws of large numbers and central limit theorems are proved.

The techniques used by Doeblin and Chung to obtain ordinary limit laws (central limit laws, weak and strong laws of large numbers, and laws of the iterated logarithm) for Markov chains, are extended to obtain analogous functional limit laws for stochastic processes which have embedded processes satisfying these laws. More generally, it is shown how functional limit laws of a stochastic process are related to those of a process embedded in it. The results herein unify and extend many existing limit laws for Markov, semi-Markov, queueing, regenerative, semi-stationary, and subordinated processes.

Let X(t), – ∞ < t < ∞, be a stationary time series with mean c x. Let 0 < τ 1 < τ2 < … < τN ≦ T denote A given sampling times in the interval (0, T]. We determine the asymptotic distribution of the estimate [X(τ1) + … + X(τN )]/N of cx when the sampling times are fixed, satisfying a form of generalised harmonic analysis requirement, and when the sampling times are the times of events of a stationary point process independent of the series X(t). The results obtained may be viewed as non-standard central limit theorems.