We explore international reserve accumulation in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), rationalizing policymakers’ belief that it counteracts the negative effects of capital inflows. Empirical evidence reveals that EMEs accumulate reserves in response to capital inflows driven by global push factors, especially when there are limitations on residents’ investments abroad. We elucidate these findings with a three-period model of a small open economy. In the first period, a large direct investment inflow occurs, prompting an EME to save abroad for consumption smoothing. If frictions hinder private overseas investments, the government can accumulate reserves to supplement insufficient private outflows. The theory highlights the role of reserves in managing capital inflows, as substantiated by our empirical findings.

Scholars who have deliberated on trade union density decline have paid scant attention to the diminished importance of organised labour’s capacity to stabilise markets by harmonising wage growth and total factor productivity. We underscore the significance of this omission by documenting how interwar US scientific management theorists and practitioners enhanced unions’ ability to stabilise markets in an era of high productivity growth, and in so doing helped build union numbers and influence. We argue, moreover, that once the productivity wave ended, employers and the US state came to view unions as a source of stagflation, conflict, and inefficiency. This development was particularly pronounced in nations with adversarial pluralist industrial relations regimes rather than the democratic corporatist agenda advocated by Frederick Taylor and his acolytes. We conclude that in an era characterised by revitalised support for knowledge-intensive reindustrialisation, revisiting the scientific managers’ agenda might assist trade union renewal.

This paper examines an endogenous growth model that allows us to consider the dynamics and sustainability of debt, pollution, and growth. Debt evolves according to the financing adaptation and mitigation efforts and to the damages caused by pollution. Three types of features are important for our analysis: the technology through the negative effect of pollution on TFP; the fiscal policy; the initial level of pollution and debt with respect to capital. Indeed, if the initial level of pollution is too high, the economy is relegated to an endogenous tipping zone where pollution perpetually increases relatively to capital. If the effect of pollution on TFP is too strong, the economy cannot converge to a stable and sustainable long-run balanced growth path. If the income tax rates are high enough, we can converge to a stable balanced growth path with low pollution and high debt relative to capital. This sustainable equilibrium can even be characterized by higher growth and welfare. This last result underlines the role that tax policy can play in reconciling debt and environmental sustainability.

We investigate two findings in Gali and Monacelli (2016, American Economic Review): (i) the effectiveness of labor cost adjustments on employment is much smaller in a currency union and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, more likely in an economy that is part of a currency union. First, we introduce a distorted steady state into Gali and Monacelli’s small open economy model, in which employment subsidies making the steady state efficient are not available, and replicate their two findings. Second, an endogenous fiscal policy rule similar to that in Bohn (1998, Quarterly Journal of Economics) is introduced with a government budget constraint in the model. The results suggest that while Gali and Monacelli’s first finding is still applicable, their second finding is not necessarily valid. Therefore, an increase in wage flexibility may reduce welfare loss in an economy that is part of a currency union as long as wage rigidity is sufficiently high. Thus, there is scope to discuss how wage flexibility benefits currency unions.

Unless the global financial system is radically reformed – and the necessary reforms are looking increasingly unlikely to occur – it will continue to be conducive to financial crises. Government rhetoric and actions can often influence in desirable ways both the speculative actions that now determine the exchange rate and the effect of exchange rate movements on the domestic economy. Managing the exchange rate should start with Australian support for measures such as the Tobin tax that dampen speculation. In 2008 and 2009, exchange rate changes were helpful in reducing the impact of the global financial crisis on Australia, largely because of a very clear commitment by the Australian government to make preservation of jobs its top priority. In 2009, a rapid rise in the exchange rate was unhelpful. In the short run, little can be done about this, but in the longer run, it is possible to offset the adverse effects.

This article understands contemporary austerity through historical comparisons informed by Marxist insights into the nature of the state. It argues that austerity policies make sense from the perspective of capital–labour, inter-capitalist and international competition. Differences among states over time, in terms of their size and international situation and contested domestic relations, produce varied imperatives towards austerity and prospects of effective resistance.

These books, different in style and content but united in purpose and major conclusions, analyse events from 2007 to 2010 to ascertain why the economic disaster happened and what must be done to put the United States economy (on which both books focus) on a more secure footing, and prevent any recurrence of the extended crisis of those years. Both target the increasing influence of market liberalism over the last 30 years, and the institutions of capitalist economies which they have encouraged. Taylor focuses more on the regulation of the international financial sector, and Palley on labour market policy. They agree that both need to be addressed if the United States economy is to be restored to health. Both argue that growing income inequality in the US must be reversed before the US economy can significantly improve. Finally, they stress the interrelationship between political ideology and economic explanation, and argue that value free positive economics is a myth.

An earlier ‘conversation’ with Professor J.W. Nevile was published in Essays in Economics, in Honour of Professor J.W. Nevile: Presented to Him on His Retirement. We now bring the story up to date covering the period roughly between Nevile’s appointment as Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales in 1993 to the present.

In this article, we consider the mainsprings of John Nevile’s many contributions to economics. John has repeatedly argued that because ‘economic actions, institutions and policies affect people’, they have an ethical dimension (Hawtrey and Nevile, 1986: 1), and he has stressed the importance of understanding the value judgements on which economics rests. His policy suggestions are aimed at improving social justice and the well-being of the most vulnerable. Apart from his deep knowledge of economic theory, his Christian faith provides an important foundation for his analysis, particularly of policy.

Inflation rates and their convergence within Euro area have been a major concern, since well before the advent of the single currency. Inflation differentials are a normal phenomenon in any monetary union and even in long-established monetary unions. The aim of this research is to examine the main factors of inflation differentials in the Euro-zone for the period 1999–2018. Our empirical estimates appear to suggest that a one-percentage-point increase in the positive output gap typically leads to an increase of about 20 basis points in the inflation rate of EMU countries. We also find three structural breaks, in 2004, 2008 and in 2010. Since the monetary policy of the European Central Bank is geared at maintaining low and stable inflation, the productivity growth should be increased, and the real effective exchange rates should be decreased and become more homogeneous among EMU. Therefore, countries’ inflation differentials may become less persistent.

The existing output gap measures for the US economy rely on aggregate data and assume a constant output gap over sectors (see Coibion et al. [(2018) Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 333–441] and Owyang et al. [(2018) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 297–316]); however, each sector has its cycle, which does not necessarily match the business cycle (Burns and Mitchell [(1946) National Bureau of Economic Research]). By modeling sectoral cycles based on their investment cycles with a nonparametric method, I estimate output gaps of 20 US sectors over 1948–2020. The weighted mean output gap indicates a persistent spare capacity in the last business cycle, pointing to insufficient stabilization policies behind secular stagnation. Phillips curve estimations with the weighted quartiles of sectoral output gaps show that the output gap of bottleneck sectors (weighted Q3) is correlated strongly with inflation over 1950–2020. Policymakers can track bottleneck sectors to mitigate inflationary pressures while supporting the sectors with negative output gaps to stabilize the output at its potential. My findings show that it is possible to produce more output by sector-level demand supporting policies without generating inflation.

This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance shocks in the US. We estimate a New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility and heterogeneous expectations using Bayesian methods and survey data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The results provide important takeaways: (1) The estimated credibility of the Fed’s forward guidance announcements is relatively high, but anticipation effects are attenuated. Accordingly, output and inflation do not respond as favorably as in the fully credible counterfactual. (2) The so-called “forward guidance puzzle” arises partly from the unrealistically large responses of macroeconomic variables to forward guidance under perfect credibility and homogeneous fully informed rational expectations, assumptions which are found to be jointly inconsistent with the observed US data. (3) Imperfect credibility provides a plausible explanation for the empirical evidence of forecasting error predictability based on forecasting disagreement found in the SPF data. Thus, we show that accounting for imperfect credibility and forecasting disagreements is important to understand the formation of expectations and the transmission mechanism of forward guidance.

Carbon taxes are likely to play a key role in meeting greenhouse gas emission targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. In this article, we assess the macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax on the global economy, paying particular attention to the terms-of-trade implications for importers and exporters of fossil fuels. We use a modified version of the National Institute’s Global Econometric Model, NiGEM. In the stylized scenarios, all countries and regions impose a permanent and uniform carbon tax immediately. Our simulations show that demand for fossil fuels falls substantially in response to the tax, global (pre-tax) prices of fossil fuels decline, and the tax can raise substantial revenue for the government. The overall impact on GDP growth and inflation in each country depends on the fossil fuel intensity of output, the net losses/gains in terms of trade and the macroeconomic policy reaction.

This paper aims to estimate the government investment fiscal multipliers in select European countries for the period 1970–2016. To do this, we combine Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) modeling with the Local Projections (LP) approach. We estimate models by also controlling for fiscal foresight, excluding the postcrisis period and distinguishing between Northern and Southern countries. Our findings suggest that an increase in government investment generates a “Keynesian effect” by engendering positive and permanent effects on the GDP level, even when government expenditure expectations are considered. Fiscal multipliers are close to 1 on impact and increase in the years after the implementation of a discretionary fiscal policy.

Explaining cross-country differences in current accounts is difficult. While pay-as-you-go pensions reduce the need to save for retirement, contributions to capital-funded pensions are saved for future consumption. An overlapping-generations analysis shows that capital-funded pensions increase net foreign assets holdings. With a multi-pillar system whose capital-funded part accounts for 18% of pensions, the Austrian current account balance would be 1 percentage point of gross domestic product (GDP) higher than with pure pay-as-you-go pensions in 20 years. By comparison, the Austrian current account surplus averages 1.8% of GDP. Empirically, I find that the current account of high-income countries increases with the coverage and replacement rates of capital-funded pensions.

As a wide-reaching institutional reform, China's fiscal decentralization was launched in the early 1980s to encourage provincial economic growth by granting more financial autonomy to provincial governments. In this paper, the impact of fiscal decentralization on China's environmental quality is investigated both theoretically and empirically. A neoclassical model is developed based on the primary characteristics of China's fiscal decentralization. Using provincial panel data for the period 1995-2015, a two-equation regression model is employed to empirically verify the three propositions of the theoretical model: (1) there exists an inverted-U shaped relationship between fiscal decentralization and GDP per capita; (2) fiscal decentralization is positively related to GDP per capita at the steady state; (3) there is an inverted-U shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship between pollution emissions and economic growth.

This article explores the global cycle hypothesis by testing whether the US stock market serves as an explanatory variable for the evolution of expansions and contractions in the UK stock market from 1922 until 2016. Alternatively, it tests an index that groups the stock markets of advanced economies to identify whether this driving force is international. Second, regarding co-movement with the US, the article explores whether its time-varying nature is contingent on the domestic and international economic policy regimes. I find evidence that there is a strong and contemporaneous co-movement between the US and UK stock markets. Additionally, through a VAR model, I identify that the movements in the UK stock market cause, in the Granger sense, changes in the index for advanced economies up to two years later. Furthermore, in the short-run co-movement between the US and UK stock markets is contingent on the macroeconomic trilemma while, in the long run, both domestic and international policy regimes affect the relationship. A final contribution is the design of a new methodology for describing the evolution of financial time series as risk-adjusted above or below average returns to different time horizons: the Local Bull Bear Indicators (LBBIs).

The aim of this paper is to investigate the role that the marital status of children has in shaping the living arrangements of their widowed mothers and themselves and to explain the increase in the proportion of elderly widows living alone, which grew by 23.2% in the USA between 1970 and 1990. We propose a model where living arrangements are determined as the outcome of a game between the mother and her child, and where the fundamentals of the model depend on children's marital status. We estimate the model using 1970 data. We calculate the accuracy of the estimation and we obtain an excellent fit. Using the same measure of accuracy, the estimated model predicts that changes in the incomes of both the widow and her offspring and changes in the children's marital status generate more than the 83% of the increase in the number of widows living alone.

I reconstitute the spending obligations and revenue sources of colonial New Jersey's provincial government for the years 1704 through 1775 from primary sources using forensic accounting techniques. I identify and analyze the methods for raising revenue to meet normal peacetime and emergency wartime expenses. I calculate the provincial tax burdens imposed on New Jersey's citizens. I identify how Britain interfered with New Jersey's fiscal structure. I estimate what the revenues and tax burdens would have been without this interference. New Jersey paid for war expenses by issuing bills of credit, spreading the tax burden of redeeming these bills into the future. New Jersey paid its yearly administrative costs with current property taxes and with current interest earnings from loaning paper money. In the absence of British interference and wars, New Jersey could have driven tax burdens to zero by using interest earnings to pay for all its provincial administrative costs.

This article examines food price volatility in Greece and how it is affectedby short-run deviations between food prices and macroeconomic factors. Themethodology follows the GARCH and GARCH-X models. The results show thatthere exists a positive effect between the deviations and food pricevolatility. The results are highly important for producers and consumersbecause higher volatility augments the uncertainty in the food markets. Oncethe participants receive a signal that the food market is volatile, thismight lead them to ask for increased government intervention in theallocation of investment resources and this could reduce overallwelfare.