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This chapter provides an overview of the core findings of the book. It outlines the key theoretical and methodological insights gained through a qualitative comparison of the politics of corporate regulation and liberalization in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, including the introduction of the theory of rent-conditional reforms. It further outlines the relevance of the rent-conditional reform theory to ongoing debates around the political and economic effects of natural resource wealth, particularly amid the potential global transition toward a less carbon-intensive economy.
This chapter introduces the arguments and structure of the book. It surveys how the liberalization of company creation regulations in Nigeria and Saudi Arabia across the first two decades of the twenty-first century defy the predictions of the existing resource curse literature. To explain the political constrains on economic liberalization in resource-wealthy, autocratic and hybrid regimes, the chapter introduces the rent-conditional reform theory. It also details the shortcomings of earlier quantitative studies of economic regulation and liberalization in contexts of resource wealth and outlines the methodological innovations of this book.
This chapter systematizes the comparison of the Nigerian and Saudi cases to offer four primary insights about the past and future trajectories of economic liberalization in resource-wealthy, autocratic and hybrid regimes. First, at the level of political actors, the Nigerian organized private sector appears dynamic and competitive in its pursuit of procedural rents when compared to the ossified Saudi Chambers of Commerce. Second, at an historical level, the Saudi and Nigerian histories of corporate law reform share a common experience of initial foreign importation, before a process of local tailoring and, eventually, their liberalization becoming rent-conditional. Third, at a theoretical level, the diverse causal processes evidenced within the two cases illustrates the potential for greater causal processes within the flexible rent-conditional reform (RCR) framework. Fourth, considering the potential global transition to a lower-carbon economy, the application of the RCR theory suggests diverging future potentials of liberalization in high- and low-cost oil producers, and potential newfound relevance for non-fuel mineral producers.
What is a successful projects-based course? What is a failure? We walk through the process with recommendations to build a successful energy focused project-based pedagogy. Of course, the first step is to “acquire” the project and this is one of the most complicated and important steps in the process. We offer several tips and ideas on project acquisition. Additional details are provided on suggestions to structure the project, assign teams, guide and coach, but don’t mandate, grade; including external validation suitable for Assurance of Learning for particular programs, and finally how to assess the process. Along the way are reconciliations to concerns and hurdles to effective implementation and success.
The challenge of transitioning to a net-zero-carbon world requires engineers and scientists to blend their technical proficiency with soft skills such as trust-building, stakeholder influence, and effective leadership within multidisciplinary teams. This seamless integration of subject matter expertise and interpersonal skills — especially those focused on leadership — are essential for driving change. Unfortunately, these skills and knowledge are frequently left out of the foundational curriculum of science-based graduate programs across the United States. In order to accelerate the energy transition, we propose that our students receive instruction in developing skills required for effective implementation and leadership of change. This chapter will set up the framework for management and leadership training for STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) students or postdocs, whether in a two-hour workshop or a full semester course.
Crude Calculations charts a ground-breaking link between autocratic regime stability and economic liberalization amid the global transition to lower-carbon energy sources. It introduces the rent-conditional reform theory to explain how preserving regime stability constrains economic liberalization in resource-wealthy autocracies and hybrid-regimes. Using comparative case studies of Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, the book traces almost one hundred years of political and legal history to provide a framework for understanding the future of economic liberalization in fossil fuel-rich autocracies. Drawing from archival documents and contemporary interviews, this book explains how natural resource rents are needed to placate threats to regime stability and argues that, contrary to conventional literature, non-democratic, resource-wealthy regimes liberalize their economies during commodity booms and avoid liberalization during downturns. Amid the global energy transition, Crude Calculations details the future political challenges to economic liberalization in fossil fuel-rich autocracies—and why autocracies rich in battery minerals may pursue economic liberalization.
Past research has often attributed electoral backlash to structural economic change to a lack of compensation and interest group representation for affected groups. Is that backlash then mitigated in contexts where both of these conditions are fulfilled? I argue that perceived economic deprivation fuelling political disengagement as well as disappointment with the issue‐owning party are important factors contributing to such a backlash. Using the case of Germany, I empirically analyse the electoral repercussions of a coal phase‐out in the presence of compensation for affected groups as well as active involvement of labour and business interests in political decision‐making. By employing a series of staggered difference‐in‐differences models, I investigate whether the closures of coal plants and mines between 2007 and 2022 affected voting behaviour at the municipal level. I find that these closures resulted in an asymmetric backlash in the form of lower vote shares for the issue owner, the Social Democratic Party and higher abstention rates in affected municipalities. With the significant politicisation around fossil fuel‐based energy generation, these findings have important implications for the remaining coal phase‐outs worldwide.
A successful energy transition requires the reallocation of private capital away from fossil fuel assets to greener alternatives. This transition is typically hindered by investors’ focus on today’s returns. In times of crisis, however, credible and unambiguous political signals about the future profitability of green industries can steer investments toward low-carbon assets. Drawing on European Union interventions during the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we present an event study of daily stock market returns following the most salient policy announcements by the European Commission in 2022. Our analysis shows that markets for shares of EU-based energy firms were initially prepared to move capital to cleaner companies, suggesting support for the clean energy transition. However, the short-lived distributional effects materialized only for announcements that could unmistakably be understood as unwavering commitments to the EU’s green renewal, while more ambiguous announcements did not have the same distributional implications. Our findings emphasize that repeated and unambiguous political signals during crisis episodes can create favorable market conditions, at least in the short term, to support capital reallocation toward greener stocks.
This chapter narrates the historical context that shaped the contemporary economic landscape of the Gulf states and critically examines the enduring impact of colonialism on the region’s economic fabric and how the entrenched “dual economic framework” imposed limitations on development. This chapter also sheds light on the emergence of resource nationalism as a transformative strategy for Gulf states to assert control over their natural resources and challenge this dependency. The creation of OPEC serves as a core moment in the realm of global energy politics, symbolizing a strategic move towards economic autonomy and the collective bargaining power of developing countries. Building upon this historical foundation, the chapter deconstructs the philosophical and theoretical frameworks that underpin development strategies during this era of rapid modernization in the Gulf and explores how Gulf policymakers creatively adapted these models to their unique socio-political and economic contexts, paving the way for their ascent as significant players in the global energy market.
This final chapter extends the discussion to the implications of China’s evolving international energy relations, in turn, on its domestic energy transition, the geopolitical landscape, and global sustainability, including international efforts to combat climate change. It also reflects on the ramifications of energy transitions on the international stage in other countries, specifically Japan and Germany. The chapter concludes with a synthesis of the main findings of the book, providing with an overview of how China’s ongoing transition from fossil fuels to renewables, along with geopolitical shifts, is reshaping its interactions with the global energy sector.
Amid intensifying geopolitical competition and accelerating climate commitments, China’s rare earth elements (REE) sector has emerged as a strategic asset and a site of political contestation. While existing accounts emphasize China’s dominance through central control, this article develops the concept of “fractured extraction” to show how REE governance is mediated by uneven, multi-scalar negotiations among central authorities, provincial governments, municipal actors and firms. Drawing on historical analysis and provincial case studies from Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi and Sichuan, we argue that China’s REE governance is marked by cycles of alignment and divergence, where central mandates around environmental reform, industrial upgrading and resource consolidation are selectively implemented, reinterpreted or resisted by subnational actors pursuing local development goals. This dynamic reflects not fragmentation or coherence but fracture: a provisional, relational mode of governance that persists across China’s evolving extractive landscape. We identify four interrelated processes – innovation, upgrading, financialization and formalization – through which fractured extraction materializes to develop a framework for understanding the politics of green industrialization and strategic resource governance that foregrounds subnational actors and the contested nature of China’s low-carbon transition.
This study aimed to analyse the advantages and challenges of the energy transition in an emerging economy such as Colombia via quantitative spatial panel data models using Colombian regions, which included departments from 2015 to 2023, to determine the main relationships between the energy transition and other variables, such as housing features, energy consumption and costs, fossil fuel use, mining, transportation activities, deforestation and livestock activity.
Technical summary
Energy transition is closely related to climate change and is helpful for achieving the main initiative in a broader strategy adopted by governments to contain global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels by the middle of the century. This study uses different empirical methods as quantitative spatial panel data models to determine variables that impact energy transition considering that the limitations of this study are related to the availability of data in every region and information on specific actions to promote energy transition in the regions. The results revealed that regions with higher levels of households, electricity coverage, energy, gasoline and diesel consumption, mining activities, transportation dynamics, deforestation rates and livestock activities generate higher carbon dioxide emissions, whereas regions with greater stable forest and electric vehicle growth rates present lower carbon dioxide emissions. The findings of this study could allow us to formulate suitable public policies to promote just energy transition that could be founded on different knowledge fields, including the industry and productive sector and its role in cleaner production, environmentally friendly infrastructure and technology, building capacities to adopt present and future technological change and create robust regulatory frameworks for their adequate operation, while considering the features and economic activities of territories and the diversification of energy sources as a strategy to promote sustainable energy transition and control climate change. Future research could concentrate on including new variables as renewable energy prices, comparative studies with other Latin American and models to promote knowledge of energy transition and clean technologies.
Summary social promotion
Energy transition in departments in Colombia: An analysis with spatial econometrics.
In a world demanding climate action, the oil-rich Gulf states face a defining crossroads: can they transform economies built on fossil fuels into resilient, climate-aligned powerhouses? This timely and original study offers a rigorous, multidimensional analysis of how Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are navigating the high-stakes transition to decarbonization. Weaving together historical political economy, postcolonial state formation, economic pressures, geopolitical realignments, and environmental imperatives, it explores the difficult trade-offs and strategic decisions forging the region's trajectory. Through incisive analysis, it reveals emerging policy innovations, evolving social contracts, and institutional strategies that are redefining the Gulf's energy future—while critically evaluating the macroeconomic consequences of climate-driven transformation. Essential reading for policymakers, financiers, energy professionals, multilateral institutions, and scholars, The Gulf's Climate Reckoning offers an intellectual and strategic framework for understanding the Gulf's climate-industrial transformation and its far-reaching implications for the emerging global energy and governance landscape.
The global energy transition carries significant geopolitical implications. This study examines how Chinese exports of critical electrical goods and geopolitical risk influence national energy transitions, focusing on lithium and rare earth production, pricing and oil markets. Using a Global Vector Autoregressive model across 12 major economies (2012–2019), with emphasis on Australia, China and the United States, the analysis shows that Chinese geopolitical risk affects the consumption of electrical goods, renewable energy deployment and critical mineral production. Empirical findings reveal that reliance on Chinese electrical goods creates strategic dependencies, making other countries vulnerable to shifts in China’s energy strategy. While oil prices are less relevant for most economies’ transitions, they remain central to the United States. The results highlight both the geopolitical risks and cooperative potential embedded in the global shift to clean energy.
This chapter examines the critical role of renewable energy and energy efficiency in circular economy liveable cities. As cities account for the majority of global energy use, transitioning to renewable energy and improving energy efficiency are essential for achieving climate goals and sustainable urban development. The chapter emphasises how circular economy principles can enhance energy systems by promoting the use of renewable energy, reducing resource consumption, and minimising waste. Areas of focus include the integration of renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and waste-to-energy systems, into urban infrastructure. The chapter discusses innovative technologies like smart grids, energy storage solutions, and shared mobility systems that can optimise energy use and reduce environmental impacts. It explores energy-efficient practices in the built environment, such as green building design, retrofitting, and modular construction, which help minimise cities’ energy footprint. The chapter highlights case studies from European cities that have successfully implemented circular energy systems, demonstrating the effectiveness of combining renewable energy with circular economy practices. It concludes by addressing the challenges and opportunities for cities to foster sustainable energy transitions, emphasising the importance of policy support, public–private partnerships, and community engagement in achieving long-term energy efficiency and renewable energy goals.
Does decarbonization depend on policy stability that makes climate policies and institutional development irreversible, or does it depend on mastering a messy political conflict with uneven progress that might be inherent in large political economy transitions? This chapter draws on case studies of two large emerging powers, Brazil and South Africa, to argue that politicization of climate action seems inevitable in decarbonizing energy transitions. Fossil fuel coalitions are too powerful and the threat to them too existential to avoid politicization as they defend their interests. At the same time, Brazil shows that policy stability was a critical step in a large expansion of wind power there – not a full energy transition itself but providing an important alternative to fossil fuels. Both countries show that allies in the struggle against fossil fuels can be won and lost in non-climate political economies of energy transition. The potential for new industry and job creation, enhanced energy security, and impacts on communities that host infrastructure are all important to energy transition, with each following a political economy logic that may or may not focus on climate change.
How can the state make durable policies and control resistance of incumbent fossil fuel interests for rapid decarbonization? Through the lens of policy feedback and coalitions, we argue that in certain contexts the state can manage political conflicts to ensure durable policies for decarbonization. We use the case of China – the world’s largest carbon emitter with a political economy system where the state has large influence on the market – to illustrate the possibility of conflict management for energy transition. We show how the central government has used regulatory power to induce big power companies to shift away from fossil fuels toward renewable energies. Reflecting upon the Chinese case, we identify some conditions under which the state can redirect the interest of incumbent actors toward net zero transition. Our study suggests that while political conflicts are inevitable to combat climate change, policymakers can strategically manage them to deepen and accelerate transition.
Malawi faces electricity supply deficits and challenges stemming from low installed capacity, with less than 15% of its population having access to electricity. Despite global trends favouring renewable energy, coal remains a potential resource to enhance Malawi’s electricity portfolio, with a generation potential of up to 1,670 MW, a significant increase compared with the country’s current installed capacity of 441.95 MW. This article explores Malawi’s complex balance between harnessing coal for energy security and international climate commitments, notably the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Through qualitative analysis, supported by a survey of 40 participants, desktop research, and comparative analysis, the article reveals a complex array of viewpoints on integrating coal into Malawi’s electricity mix, with 79% of the survey participants citing the alignment of the policy statements but expressing concern over lack of practical implementation and unclear coal power strategies. The findings highlight the need for Malawi to balance its immediate energy security and economic development goals with long-term environmental sustainability. This article proposes a strategic approach to developing a comprehensive coal supply industry while exploring the feasibility of clean coal technologies, emphasising a strong political will as key to addressing the coal dilemma. The findings contribute to the prevailing mixed perspectives on energy transitions in developing countries, providing insights into Malawi’s energy dilemma within the regional and global context, and aligning with SDGs 7, 9, 12 and 13.
Modern supply chains are vital to global commerce, but they are also major contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As climate change intensifies, achieving carbon neutrality – particularly through supply chain decarbonisation – has become a global imperative. While organisations have made strides in reducing direct emissions, addressing indirect supply chain emissions presents greater complexity and urgency. We invite academic contributions that examine the challenges, enablers, potential risks, strategic approaches and innovative practices related to decarbonisation across a wide range of sectors, including manufacturing, service industries and humanitarian logistics. Emphasis is placed on holistic, multi-stakeholder approaches aligned with the GHG Protocol. The issue welcomes interdisciplinary research employing varied methodologies – ranging from empirical studies to conceptual frameworks – to inform practice, policy and sustainability transitions. By showcasing sector-specific insights and cross-cutting solutions, this issue aims to advance knowledge and action in building low-carbon, resilient supply chains.
This chapter centres on comparative analysis, drawing together evidence-based insights into how renewable energy has been developed in the three regions. The three-part framework outlined in the opening chapter is used to analyse problems of legitimacy in renewable energy development in the three contexts. The three dimensions of appropriation, accumulation, and regulation shape the comparative analysis and underpin a suggested schema for interpreting legitimacy issues in renewable energy transitions. We discuss how renewables have been progressed, both locally and in terms of the intersecting dynamics of global policy, finance, and advocacy in constituting region-level transitions.