This paper presents the results of a targeted survey conducted among UK pension consultancies, insurers and reinsurers to explore current actuarial practices and challenges in modelling the impact on mortality and morbidity of climate perils. The responses reveal several recurring themes, including varying degrees of climate risk integration, plus significant data and methodological limitations. This is against a background of growing regulatory and stakeholder pressure to incorporate climate considerations into actuarial models. While a small number of organisations have made substantive progress, many are at a preliminary stage, relying primarily on qualitative or scenario-based approaches. Respondents identified a pressing need for standardised methodologies, improved data sources and practical guidance to support consistent and credible modelling. The findings highlight a clear need for profession-led guidance, improved access to climate-health data and practical frameworks to support the consistent integration of climate-related mortality and morbidity risks into actuarial work. Respondents expressed strong support for collaborative development of standardised scenarios, illustrative modelling approaches and case studies to bridge the gap between public-health research and actuarial application. The paper concludes with practical recommendations for practitioners and identifies priority areas for future research and professional guidance.

Breast cancer represents one of the main causes of mortality among women, and the consumption of bioactive compounds seems to contribute to improving the prognosis of the disease. However, the relationship between polyphenol intake and breast cancer has not yet been fully elucidated. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between polyphenol intake and breast cancer mortality, survival, and recurrence. This is an observational study with a prospective sample of 95 women, followed up for an average of 11.5 years. Intake of polyphenols was assessed using a Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) and estimated using the Phenol-Explorer® database. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate the associations. Survival curves were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. An inverse association was found between the intake of total polyphenols, phenolic acids, and lignans, and the risk of breast cancer-specific mortality (HR= 0.20, 95% CI [0.05-0.80]; HR= 0.09, 95% CI [0.01-0.50]; HR= 0.15, 95% CI [0.04-0.63], respectively). Phenolic acids also showed an inverse association with breast cancer recurrence (HR= 0.35, 95% CI [0.13-0.98]) and all-cause mortality (HR= 0.23, 95% CI [0.07 - 0.77]). Coffee was the major contributor to total polyphenol, phenolic acid, and lignan intake. Total polyphenol intake was associated with longer survival when breast cancer mortality was considered (p=0.048). In conclusion, higher intake of polyphenols was associated with lower breast cancer-specific mortality. In addition, phenolic acids were associated with lower all-cause mortality and breast cancer recurrence. Further studies are needed to confirm these associations.

Climate change is likely to increase the frequency, severity, and duration of heat waves in many countries. To plan mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies, it is necessary to quantify heat wave risk at both the local level and the country level. A new, more granular methodology is proposed in order to integrate the impact of heat waves in hexagonal France on mortality with a short-term stress scenario. Based on open data and reproducible methodology, the approach can be used as a starting point to investigate other effects, such as urban heat islands. The present application is based on in situ observational weather data and environmental vulnerability data to construct adapted geographical clusters without relying on the administrative division of the territory. Excess mortality is modeled as a function of weather using machine learning. Using recent knowledge of climatology, we construct extreme weather scenarios to calculate a shock to mortality. Short-term shocks are compared, and their respective merits are discussed. The methodology has been shown to generate mortality shocks up to five times greater than those estimated by the French regulatory authority.

Previous studies document links between early-life exposures and life-cycle outcomes, but fewer examine how local labor market shocks during early life affect old-age male mortality. This article studies this relationship using a large-scale deindustrialization shock: the decline of New England’s textile industry during the 1920s and 1930s. Consistent with prior work, we find small effects on migration and limited changes in counties’ sociodemographic composition after deindustrialization. Using Social Security Administration death records linked to the 1900–1940 historical censuses and difference-in-differences event studies, we find reduced longevity among men born in highly exposed counties, especially among non-migrant families and those in non-urban areas. The estimates imply intent-to-treat effects of about 3.6 months, while treatment-on-the-treated calculations suggest longevity reductions of about 4.2 years for children of affected families. Using 1950–1960 census data, we also find reductions in schooling, high school completion, and socioeconomic standing.

This study investigated the annual culling rate and its main causes on dairy farms in the central region of Santa Fe, Argentina. A cross-sectional study was conducted between February and April 2025 on 77 farms located in the central dairy region of Santa Fe province, Argentina (Castellanos and Las Colonias departments). On each farm, an in-person survey was conducted with the farm manager. Information was collected regarding the farm demographics, the number of culls and mortalities and the causes of culling. The average annual total culling rate for pasture-based systems was 22.3% (range: 10–34%), while for confined systems it was 31% (range: 22–54%). The proportion of cows culled in pasture-based systems was 15.6% (range: 2–30%) compared to 23.6% (range: 14–43%) in confined systems. The annual mortality rate in pasture-based systems was 6.7% (range: 2–20%), while in confined systems it was 7.4% (range: 4–17%). The main causes of culling were reproductive problems, udder health issues, hoof diseases, infectious diseases and low milk production. The main causes of mortality on the farms were traumatic injuries, infectious diseases, mastitis and metabolic disorders, among others. Average cow longevity in pasture-based systems was 4.3 (range: 2–9) lactations compared to 2.9 (range: 1.4–4) lactations in confined systems. Productivity, animal welfare and dairy herd longevity are shaped primarily by management practices rather than by production system type alone, and both pasture-based and confined systems can be optimized to achieve sustainable outcomes.

Fluctuations in disease severity occurred throughout the COVID-19 pandemic in England due to emerging variants and changing population immunity. Deaths caused by COVID-19 reduced from 2022; however, a smaller reduction was observed in deaths following a COVID-19 test. This study examines whether mortality risk within 28 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test remained elevated during a period of reduced disease severity. National-level routinely collected health data containing SARS-CoV-2 test results, vaccination, hospital, and death records were linked to create a population-level cohort. Individuals testing positive and negative were matched on demographic and disease characteristics. Mortality risk was compared using univariable and multivariable conditional logistic regression models for the overall time-period (March 2020–April 2022) and the focus time-period (January–April 2022). Individuals testing positive in the overall time-period had a 228% increased risk of death than those testing negative. In the focused time-period, test positive individuals had 63% higher odds of death, accounting for vaccination and previous hospitalisation. The increased risk of death associated with testing positive was greater among unvaccinated individuals (238%) than vaccinated individuals (155%). Mortality risk following COVID-19 remained elevated at the end of the pandemic, especially among unvaccinated individuals, supporting continued COVID-19 booster vaccination campaigns.

Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) is central to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) management; however, evidence in non-Mediterranean populations is limited. This study examined the association between MedDiet adherence and MASLD, hospitalisation and mortality in a non-Mediterranean population. This longitudinal study included 119 536 UK Biobank adults with at least one 24-hour dietary recall and available sociodemographic and clinical data. Diet quality was assessed using the Modified-Mediterranean Diet Score (M-MedDietScore). MASLD was determined by fatty liver index (FLI) at baseline and by liver imaging in a subgroup. Hospitalisation and mortality data were obtained from linked records, with MASLD outcomes identified using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes. Binary logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models estimated Odds Ratio (OR) for MASLD and hazard ratio (HR) for hospitalisation and mortality. Each five-unit increase in M-MedDietScore was associated with 19 % lower OR of MASLD as identified by FLI and confirmed in the imaging sub-analysis in a multivariate adjusted Model 2. Higher adherence to the MedDiet was associated with lower HR of hospitalisation due to liver-related, CVD, diabetes, respiratory and renal disease (all P < 0·05). During a median follow-up of 9·7 years, 5552 deaths occurred. Higher MedDiet adherence was associated with lower HR of all-cause, CVD and extrahepatic cancer mortality and lower all-cause mortality risk in those with MASLD (HR: 0·94, 95 % CI: 0·90, 0·98). Higher adherence to the MedDiet was associated with lower odds of MASLD and with reduced MASLD-related hospitalisations and mortality and lower all-cause mortality in those with MASLD. These findings support the role of MedDiet in reducing hepatic and cardiovascular burden in non-Mediterranean population.

Optimal nutrition is essential for reducing both all-cause and CVD mortality. Existing research highlights the importance of macronutrient type and quality in this context, with limited evidence in non-Western populations. We aimed to determine the association between macronutrient distribution and all-cause and CVD mortality in an African population as well as the contribution of the respective food sources. This cohort consisted of 1737 African men and women with a median observational time of 13 years, resulting in 19 456·6 person-years. CVD-related international classification for diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes (I00–I99) were included when considering CVD mortality. Substitution analysis using partition and nutrient-density models assessed the relationship between macronutrient distribution and mortality. Higher intakes of complex carbohydrates (CHO), animal protein, total fat and MUFA were associated with decreased all-cause mortality risk. The partition model also revealed that substituting 200 calories (kcal) of plant protein with animal protein significantly reduced all-cause mortality risk by 39 % to 33 % (model 1–3). In addition, the isoenergetic substitution of 10 % total energy from total fat with total CHO led to a 17 % reduction in all-cause mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR) 0·83; 95 % CI 0·72, 0·96). No significant associations with CVD mortality were found. These findings partially agree with, yet also oppose, previous studies, emphasising the need for population-specific data. Research from high-income European populations may not directly apply to African contexts due to food insecurity, reliance on staple-based diets with low-quality plant proteins and lean, higher-quality animal protein sources, as well as differences in CVD disease aetiology.

Native boxwood across Europe has been destroyed by the invasive moth Cydalima perspectalis. To date, climatic conditions and natural enemies have not been able to contain the pests. Increases in temperature due to climate change (CC) may affect insect development and voltinism, with species-specific effects. Its spread across European countries indicates that the expansion of C. perspectalis is not limited by cold winters. However, in southern Europe, rising maximum temperatures can affect pests and their host plants. Despite this, the effects of high temperatures on herbivorous pests have been studied far less extensively than those of low temperatures. Our results show that elevated temperatures accelerate egg development but prolong larval development, reduce adult longevity and fertility, and substantially increase mortality across the egg, larval, and pupal stages. These findings indicate that spring–summer temperatures in the Mediterranean Basin are approaching the upper thermal limits of this species and that further warming is unlikely to facilitate its expansion in this region. Although high temperatures did not reduce diapause induction, they increased larval mortality, and field monitoring showed that altitude, more than thermal time, dominated the patterns of first-flight emergence. Habitat orientation (North or South) may further mediate pest–host coexistence. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by clarifying how this pest responds to the warming conditions associated with CC in southern Europe.

Using different techniques to derive dietary patterns (DP) could evaluate real-world diet behaviours and provide DP recommendations. Therefore, we identified DP using hybrid methodologies and examined the associations of DP with all-cause and CVD mortality among older Chinese. Using data from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study, dietary intake was assessed using a validated FFQ. DP were derived using hybrid methods including reduced rank regression (RRR) and partial least squares (PLS), focusing on nutrients commonly insufficient in Asian diets. Associations of the DP with mortality and CVD risk factors were examined using Cox regression and generalised linear models, respectively. Of 19 598 participants with an average follow-up of 15·8 years, 4966 deaths occurred. Two DP were derived based on the riboflavin-density, K:Na ratio and vitamin C-density. The DP derived from both RRR and PLS featured high intakes of green vegetables, yellow/orange fruits and whole grains and low intakes of refined grains and plant oils, with additional high intakes of fish identified by RRR and milk by PLS. These DP were associated with lower all-cause and CVD mortality risks. Compared with the lowest quartile, the highest quartiles showed lower risks of all-cause (hazard ratio (HR): 0·89–0·91, all P < 0·01) and CVD mortality (HR: 0·79–0·82, all P < 0·01). Moreover, both DP were associated with favourable cardiometabolic profiles, including lower systolic blood pressure, TAG and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels, and higher HDL-cholesterol levels. These findings suggest that nutrient-rich DP using hybrid methods may support the development of dietary recommendations to reduce mortality among older Chinese.

Electrical power systems are a ubiquitous part of the Anthropocene. Wildlife interactions with these systems can be positive, for example when natural nesting substrates are limited, but are frequently negative, for example when nests catch fire or nesting individuals are electrocuted. Electrocution research focuses primarily on birds because they, especially large species, are particularly prone to electrocution. However, many other animals are also electrocuted. To explore non-avian electrocutions, we used crowdsourced data from Iran, where electric utility personnel frequently describe unusual incidents on electric industry-focused social media channels. In posts from January 2014 to December 2023, we identified 120 reports of non-avian electrocutions involving mammals (74%), reptiles (24%), amphibians (1%) and invertebrates (< 1%). Most (91%) incidents involved correctly operating electrical systems, indicating that the design of these electrical systems did not account for potential animal contacts. A few (9%) involved malfunctioning electrical components (overturned or energized power poles) that would also have been hazardous to humans. The greatest number of electrocutions occurred as a result of contact with low-voltage and ground-mounted equipment. For example, 220–600 V freestanding switchboards accounted for about one-third of electrocutions. Many of the documented incidents involved outages (n = 71), or outages together with fire ignitions (n = 8), indicating cascading effects on human populations and the environment. Mitigation measures to prevent these incidents are widely available, and should be used throughout the electrical system. Future research should document and quantify non-avian incidents beyond Iran, to better understand the impact of electrical systems on non-avian wildlife.