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What shapes fossil-fuel investment and divestment decisions? What are pension funds’ climate-related considerations? And how do conceptions of portfolio risk influence these issues? Danish pension funds constitute a rare and understudied cohort of investors who have undertaken comparatively progressive fossil-fuel investment decisions. Simultaneously, diversification and market rationality have frequently been invoked as obstacles to divestment and active ownership. Using the Danish experience, this article conducts an archaeological analysis of the concept of portfolio risk, unearthing the various ways in which it has shaped fossil-fuel investment decisions. The analysis identifies five key aspects through which the concept has hampered Danish pension funds’ active ownership and fossil-fuel divestment decisions (sector diversification, externalities, market rationality, dispersed ownership, and passive index investing). The article argues that these discursive aspects have reinforced a passive tendency within finance capitalism to bolster the status quo, thereby supporting prevailing market actors and the continued extraction of fossil fuels.
This meta-analysis assesses the relationship between vitamin D supplementation and incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Pubmed, Web of science, Ovid, Cochrane Library and Clinical Trials were used to systematically search from their inception until July 2024. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were employed to assess the association between vitamin D supplementation and MACEs. This analysis included 5 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Pooled results showed no significant difference in the incidence of MACEs (HR: 0.96; p=0.77), expanded MACEs (HR: 0.96; p=0.77) between the vitamin D intervention group and the control group. Further, the vitamin D intervention group had a lower incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), but the difference was not statistically significant (HR: 0.88, 95%CI: 0.77-1.01; p=0.061); nevertheless, vitamin D supplementation had no effect on the reduced incidence of stroke (p=0.675) or cardiovascular death (p=0.422). Among males (p=0.109) and females (p=0.468), vitamin D supplementation had no effect on the reduced incidence of MACEs. For participants with a body mass index (BMI)<25 kg/m2, the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.782); notably, the vitamin D intervention group had a lower incidence of MACEs for those with BMI≥25 kg/m2 (HR: 0.91, 95%CI: 0.83-1.00; p=0.055). Vitamin D supplementation did not significantly contribute to the risk reduction of MACEs, stroke and cardiovascular death in the general population, but may be helpful for MI. Notably, effect of vitamin D supplementation for MACEs was influenced by BMI. Overweight/obese people should be advised to take vitamin D to reduce the incidence of MACEs.
While the claim that moral ignorance exculpates is quite controversial, the parallel claim with respect to non-moral ignorance seems to be universally accepted. As a starting point, we can state this claim as follows:
Non-moral Ignorance Exculpates: If an agent did everything that could be reasonably expected of her to inquire into some empirical issue as to whether P, the seeming truth of P played the appropriate role in the agent’s motivation to Φ, and the agent would not have merited blame for Φ-ing if P had been the case, then the agent does not merit blame for Φ-ing.
In this paper, I aim to accomplish two tasks. First, I argue that NMIE is false in certain cases in which, by Φ-ing, the agent violates a course-grained, reasonable community norm without knowing that doing so is in everyone’s best interests. Second, I argue that, while moral ignorance, like non-moral ignorance, does not exculpate when community norms are violated in this manner, it does exculpate when they are not. With these two tasks accomplished, we will see the striking parallels in the manner in which both moral and non-moral ignorance exculpate.
Global discussions around the risks, benefits and governance of solar radiation modification (SRM) in the climate change response portfolio are accelerating, but the topic remains nascent in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In 2023, a US start-up (Make Sunsets) performed a small-scale, non-research deployment of SRM in Baja California, Mexico, without prior permission or community engagement. Their actions prompted Mexico to announce its intention to ban SRM experimentation, underscoring the need for governance to prevent irresponsible practices that could discredit legitimate research. We perform an empirical and ethical analysis of the landscape of academic discussions and media coverage on SRM in the LAC region, focusing on the Make Sunset case. Our analysis leads us to three conclusions: first, a lack of regulations in LAC that fosters mistrust, fuels perceptions of neo-colonialism and restricts potentially valuable and responsible research; second, we argue that the theatrical Make Sunsets case is not ethically justified in light of the diversity of risks associated with it; third, we offer foundational, participatory recommendations to promote effective, transparent and sustainable governance of SRM, including LAC in global conversations.
Technological developments and affordable price structures have increased the usage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) across almost all sectors, hence increasing demand. Since UAVs can fly and perform various tasks without requiring a human operator, the most dangerous and time-consuming tasks previously performed by humans in many sectors are now accomplished by using UAVs. The increased use of UAVs has also introduced critical safety and security risks, including airspace congestion, collisions and malicious use, and therefore, identifying and assessing the risks associated with UAVs and finding ways to mitigate them is of great importance. This qualitative study investigates the safety and security risks posed by the increased use of UAVs and discusses ways to mitigate these risks. Semi-structured interviews with aviation professionals, including pilots, air traffic controllers and academicians, were conducted, and the collected data were analysed by using MAXQDA 24 qualitative analysis software. The results indicate that 86% of participants emphasised air traffic density as a major safety concern, while 71% underlined the need for dedicated air corridors and robust legal frameworks to reduce collision risks. These insights suggest that the safe integration of UAVs into current aviation systems demands a multifaceted strategy involving regulatory interventions, such as clearly defined UAV flight zones and essential technological enhancements. Overall, the study underscores the urgent need for coordinated efforts–legal, technological, and inter-institutional–to ensure the secure incorporation of UAVs into national airspace.
Rounding up Part II is Chapter 7, which is a vital continuation of the narrative about the interrelationship among international law, IFIs, and sustainable development. A demand for accountability motivated the initial encounter; it is also accountability – more broadly construed – that should underpin the IFIs’ international lawmaking role vis-à-vis sustainable development. To expound the second prong of the book’s claim, this penultimate chapter sketches a complementary relationship between independent accountability mechanisms and the International Law Commission (ILC) draft Articles on the Responsibility of International Organizations (ARIO), with a view to upholding the right to remedy in the development finance context. It then pleads that, given the IFIs’ critical roles as creatures, creators, and catalysts of international law – especially regarding sustainable development – international legal scholars should begin taking them seriously and further scrutinizing their "internal" rules and operations.
“Competence” is defined as “doing well,” and “resilience” is defined as “doing well in the face of adversity.” Without a developmental approach, based in meaning, these terms are merely labels for what is observed, and the definitions are circular. How do you know some children are resilient? They are doing well in adverse circumstances. Why are they doing well? Because they are resilient. Research shows that competence and resilience are in fact developmental constructions, built up age by age. Children who do well in high stress families, or who rebound from a period of difficulty, do so because they have a history of earlier positive support and/or changes in current circumstances. They maintain or reclaim positive expectations based on experience. This work paved the way for studies showing that early experience is not erased by developmental change and that adaptation is a product of the entire, cumulated history of experience, as well as current circumstances.
Despite international calls to abolish the use of segregation in prisons, the practice has been defended by some Canadian correctional workers as a sometimes-necessary practice to preserve prisoner and staff safety. Informed through a lens of risk and the socio-legal literature on segregation, the current interview study explores perspectives on segregation from 28 correctional officers (COs) employed in provincial correctional services at a prison in Atlantic Canada. COs expressed a need to continue using segregation—albeit less often and under reformed contexts—to ensure safety for prisoners and staff and preserve prisoner accountability. Findings indicate COs recognize the structural, situational, and personal factors and complexities that shape decisions to impose segregation. They call for increased available resources to improve prisoner safety, dignity and wellness, prevent harm and self-injury, and reduce the use of segregation. We conclude with recommendations for provincial and territorial correctional institutions to consider moving forward.
Describe the social, cognitive, and biological influences on adolescent decision-making; understand the risk and reward systems of the brain and how these can be influenced by different contexts; evaluate the roles of peer groups, executive functions, and sex differences in adolescent behaviour.
This chapter redefines human security by treating security and risk as part of the contingent and negotiated condition of human living. It calls into question the taken-for-granted assumption that security means Big Security organised around the primacy of the state and that, alternatively, human security should be confined to personal freedom from fear and want. In these terms, the liberal notion of ‘freedom from’ is exposed as a reduction of the richness of positive human security. Emphasising what we want to escape ‘from’ is to remain with the classical notion of negative freedom. Adding to this the concept of ‘freedom to’, that is, positive freedom, where people begin to debate the complex meaning of what it is to live with the tensions of both security and risk, is to take one step forward. The task is then a twofold one: first, to examine the strengths and weaknesses of existing discourses and definitions; and, second, to reframe the approach to human security. This is done against a backdrop discussing how we might better respond to crises, from slow global crises such as climate change to immediate and more localised crises such as in the Middle East.
Chapter 6 discusses the “cost-benefit analysis” (CBA) framework for decision-making, aiding project and policy selection and acceptance. Environmental impacts may occur today, over several years, and sometimes well into the future, requiring discounting future costs and benefits, which raises important ethical considerations. Often, the environmental impacts of projects and policy decisions are not known for certain, and there may be uncertainty about the incidence, scale of the effects, and the probability of their occurrence. Thus, adopting or rejecting a project or policy requires addressing the uncertainty and risk surrounding environmental impacts. Equity issues can also be considered in CBA, as the distributional effects on those who bear the costs and receive the benefits of a project or policy decision are often different. Successfully adopting and implementing projects and policies, in the long run, relies on how costs and benefits are distributed among the stakeholders impacted by them. A case study of mangrove conversion for shrimp farms in Thailand illustrates the implementation of CBA in the real world.
From an “infrastructural gaze,” this chapter examines the penetration of artificial intelligence (AI) in capital markets as a blend of continuity and change in finance. The growing infrastructural dimension of AI originates first from the evolution of algorithmic trading and governance, and second, from its ascent as a “general-purpose technology” within the financial domain. The text discusses the consequences of this “infrastructuralization” of financial AI, considering the micro–macro tension typical of capital accumulation and crisis dynamics. Challenging the commonly espoused notion of AI as a stabilizing force, the analysis underscores its connections with volatile, crisis-prone financialized dynamics. It concludes by outlining potential consequences (unpredictability, operational inefficiency, complexity, further concentration) and (systemic) risks arising from the emergence of AI as a “new” financial infrastructure, particularly those related to biases in data and data commodification, lack of explanation of underlying models, algorithmic collusion, and network effects. The text asserts that a thorough understanding of these hazards can be attained by adopting a perspective that considers the macro/meso/micro connections inherent in infrastructures.
The justifiably famous “Asian disease” experiment (ADE) by Tversky and Kahneman established that choices involving uncertainty can be dependent on framing. Description emphasizing gains induced much higher preference for choices in which outcomes were described as certain rather than probabilistic, as compared to description emphasizing losses. The vignette for the ADE involved disease mitigation, and the COVID pandemic gave it much-enhanced realism and immediacy. An attempt to replicate the ADE during the pandemic, however, failed to produce the original results. Other, contemporaneous replications, by contrast, matched the original, leaving open the question of when such framing effects occur.
Advances in medicine have led to an improvement in life expectancy, thus increasing the population of older individuals within the criminal justice system. This study investigates the determinants of risk formulation, care plan, and disposition among older adult forensic patients (OAFP) in Ontario, Canada.
Methods
This retrospective analysis utilized the Ontario Review Board database, focusing on 161 OAFP, aged 55 years and older. Hierarchical regression was used to analyze the relationship between changes in risk and six blocks of variables: sociodemographic characteristics (Block 1), circumstances during the index offense (Block 2), current clinical profile (Block 3), past psychiatric history and behavioral patterns (Block 4), criminal history and legal status (Block 5), and recent violent events (Block 6).
Results
The median age of patients was 61 years (IQR 58–67), with 83.4% being male. Schizophrenia was the most common diagnosis (68.3%), and 9.3% had neurocognitive disorders. The model with six blocks of factors explained 92% of the variability in risk change. Models 2 (blocks 1 and 2) and 4 (blocks 1–4) were statistically significant, explaining 34% (p = 0.010) and 22% (p = 0.018) of the variance in the change in risk of threat to public safety, respectively. OAFP with a significant risk to public safety were more likely to be inpatients and less likely intoxicated during their index offense.
Conclusion
Resources, policies, and a supervised model of care to curtail behavioral risks are relevant to the care of OAFP. Innovative risk management models for OAFP are indicated.
To generate and employ scenarios of sentinel human and animal outbreak cases in local contexts that integrate human and animal health interests and practices and facilitate outbreak risk management readiness.
Methods
We conducted a scoping review of past outbreaks and the strengths and weaknesses of response efforts in USAID STOP Spillover program countries. This information and iterative query-and-response with country teams and local stakeholders led to curated outbreak scenarios emphasizing One Health human:animal interfaces at sub-national levels.
Results
Two core scenarios were generated adapted to each of 4 countries’ pathogen priorities and workflows in Africa and Asia, anchoring on sub-national outbreak response triggered by either an animal or human health event. Country teams subsequently used these scenarios in a variety of local preparedness discussions and simulations. The process of creating outbreak scenarios encourages discussion and review of current country practices and procedures. Guideline documents and lessons learned do not necessarily reflect how workflows occur in outbreak response in countries at highest risk for spillover events.
Conclusions
Discussion-based engagement across One Health stakeholders can improve sub-national coordination, clarify guidelines and responsibilities, and provide a space for interagency cooperation through use of scenarios in tabletop and other exercises.
The different types of uncertainty and the theories developed to account for them are presented in this chapter. The concepts of risk and reliability are introduced and defined following which basic probability ideas are discussed. The methods used to determine structural reliability are described (the direct integration method, Level II reliability methods and the Level I method). Level II reliability methods include the mean value first-order second-moment method and variants of it based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index used in the case of nonlinear limit state functions and the Rackwitz-Fiessler procedure that has to be followed in the case of non-normal distributions. The Level I reliability method is discussed and the approach followed to determine partial safety factors described. In the next section fuzzy logic and fuzzy set theory are described. They are introduced by distinguishing between classical logic and fuzzy logic, following which fuzzy sets and fuzzy inference are described. In the last section the steps in the fuzzy inference system are presented and examples of such systems mentioned.
Risk was incorporated into monetary aggregation over thirty-five years ago, using a stochastic version of the workhorse money-in-the-utility-function model. Nevertheless, the mathematical foundations of this stochastic model remain shaky. To firm the foundations, this paper employs richer probability concepts than Borel-measurability, enabling me to prove the existence of a well-behaved solution and to derive stochastic Euler equations. This measurability approach is less common in economics, possibly because the derivation of stochastic Euler equations is new. Importantly, the problem’s economics are not restricted by the approach. The results provide firm footing for the growing monetary aggregation under risk literature, which integrates monetary and finance theory. As crypto-currencies and stable coins garner attention, solidifying the foundations of risky money becomes more critical. The method also supports deriving stochastic Euler equations for any dynamic economics problem that features contemporaneous uncertainty about prices, including asset pricing models like capital asset pricing models and stochastic consumer choice models.
This chapter utilizes an existential perspective to educate readers on the importance of responsible decision-making and creating meaning in life. The author explores how social and emotional intelligences help foster wellbeing and create meaning in life. However, decisions can be affected by negative emotions and desire for risk-taking. This chapter discusses the negative psychological effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and how it caused existential crisis for many around the world, influencing emotional responses and thus decision-making habits. Recovery and wellbeing can be found again in the ability to create meaning from the years of death and psychological destruction.
Home-based care is common practice in many countries and has had a long tradition in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand. Home-based care now takes many forms, including the acute care program Hospital in the Home, a range of chronic disease programs and community aged care. Home-based care provides many benefits to consumers, reducing their need to travel to services and associated costs. It also allows the health care provider to have a holistic picture of the consumers and for the consumers to feel empowered to manage their health care issues in their own homes, while continuing with normal daily activities in a setting that they are comfortable in.