This study aimed to analyse the patterns, trends, genomic characteristics, and key determinants of dengue virus (DENV) infections and associated deaths in South Asia from 2000 to 2023. We collected data from the World Health Organization dengue surveillance dashboard and the health ministries of respective countries, and publicly available data from eight South Asian (SA) countries. Descriptive measures, data visualization techniques, and time series analysis were used to identify key patterns and trends of DENV. A time-scaled phylogenetic analysis was carried out to explore the genomic epidemiology and evolution of DENV. A generalized linear model (GLM) was fitted to identify climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors. Between 2000 and 2023, SA countries showed a sharp increase in dengue cases and deaths, contributing to 6.5% of cases and 11.07% of deaths caused by DENV globally. The total cases in the region are projected to grow by approximately 40%, and total deaths by 61% by 2033. The predominant genotypes were DENV2/II, DENV3/I, and DENV3/III. GLM underscores climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors associated with DENV infection and deaths. The findings urge intensified public health measures emphasising the need for comprehensive interventions, including vector control, climate adaptation, and strengthened healthcare systems to de-escalate the situation.

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the regions in Antarctica that has experienced notable and extensively studied warming since the mid-twentieth century. Meteorological data, although limited and mostly dating back to the International Geophysical Year (1957–1958), reveal dramatic climate changes in both the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica, with the Antarctic Peninsula showing the highest warming trends on the continent. One major manifestation of this warming is the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme warm events. This study utilizes temperature data from the Artigas Antarctic Scientific Base provided by National Weather Service, Uruguayan Institute of Meteorology (INUMET), which have not previously been used or quality-controlled. Data were processed and analysed, and a quality hourly database was built for the period 1 January 1998 to 11 December 2016 for the surface temperature, constructing a complete time series interpolating the data with two other nearby Antarctic stations (C.M.A. Eduardo Frei Montalva and King Sejong). Temperature presented an annual cycle with marked interannual and seasonal variability, with the cold season being the one with the highest variability and the largest anomalies, both positive and negative. No significant trend was found for the monthly mean temperature. A study of warm temperature events was conducted at three points on King George Island, defining warm events and extreme warm events as those in which the mean daily temperature was above the 90th and 99th percentile, respectively, for at least 3 consecutive days. A high frequency of occurrence was found (all years except 2015) mostly in the cold season of the year, and with large interannual variability. In turn, it was found that certain atmospheric dynamics favour the generation of these extreme warm events, and that their occurrence is higher during La Niña years. Although the majority of the extreme warm events occurred during positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode, the statistical correlations were not significant.

This article serves as an introduction to the Special Issue section “Measuring and Enhancing Resilience of United States Rural Communities in the Context of Climate Variability.” To set the stage for this section, we review how climate hazards impact rural areas and synthesize insights that emerge across the issue’s four papers, noting their policy relevance and highlighting opportunities for continued research. We argue that emerging data tools can help program designers and policy makers better support the resilience of rural areas, but that doing so remains complicated by heterogeneity in resources and vulnerabilities across rural areas.

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that differentiates cropping activities and labour by sex and includes household home production, this study examines the effects of rainfall variability in Burkina Faso from both a macroeconomic perspective and a gender lens. The simulation of the annual rainfall pattern observed in the country over the past decade highlights its broad economic effects and confirms the greater sensitivity of female-led cropping activities. It also underscores the differential impacts on female and male workers in the labour market and within households, revealing the interactions between the non-market and market spheres of the economy when a rainfall shock occurs. Nevertheless, additional simulations suggest that promoting water management systems or more water-stress-resistant crop varieties could help mitigate the effects of rainfall variability and that targeted measures to support female farmers could effectively reduce their specific vulnerability.

The Southern Ocean remains one of the most data-deficient ocean basins despite its crucial role in global climate regulation. This study uses racing sailboats from the Barcelona World Race (2010/2011 and 2014/2015) and the Vendée Globe Race (2020/2021) as vessels of opportunity to collect sea-surface temperature and salinity measurements, offering a unique dataset for assessing oceanographic variability in this remote region. We conducted an inter-annual analysis of surface temperature and salinity anomalies relative to ARMOR-3D reanalysis and World Ocean Atlas 2023 climatological datasets, identifying regional patterns of change and variability. The results reveal a warming trend and general freshening of the Southern Ocean surface over the last decade, with the highest anomalies observed in the Indian and Atlantic sectors, whereas the Pacific sector showed the lowest anomalies in absolute terms. Notably, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (La Niña) and Southern Annular Mode phases played a significant role in modulating these temperature and salinity anomalies. This study underscores the scientific value of non-research vessels in monitoring climate-driven changes in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic waters, highlighting their potential to complement traditional observation networks in data-sparse regions.

Based on a new cored succession at Winterswijk, evidence is uncovered of the end-Triassic mass-extinction (ETME) event in a subsurface sedimentary succession of the Netherlands. The ETME was one of the most devastating events for the biosphere during the Phanerozoic era. Massive volcanism from the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province initiated the breakup of the supercontinent Pangea and resulted in terrestrial and marine extinction pulses, which drastically altered the course of life on Earth. The newly cored material reveals a sedimentary succession representing a shallow marine setting dominated by laminated black shale and claystone deposits. A high-resolution palynostratigraphic dataset provides evidence for a late Rhaetian vegetation assemblage that displays a stepwise decline of arborescent tree vegetation that is transiently replaced by a community of ferns and fern allies. Geochemical records link this major disturbance in palynofloral biodiversity to a pulse of volcanic activity as evidenced by a negative excursion in stable organic carbon isotopes. Shifts towards drier climate conditions, as inferred from sedimentary elemental composition, suggest continental aridification strongly influenced the terrestrial realm following volcanic pulses. Presence of reworked material suggests unstable soils that were affected by increased erosion rates, inhibiting the re-establishment of conifer tree vegetation. Comparison of our findings with other contemporaneous European Triassic-Jurassic boundary sections confirms the progression of the end-Triassic extinction, which exhibits a two-phased structure. The presence of the ETME in the subsurface of the Netherlands provides further evidence towards our understanding of terrestrial extinction with emphasis on the decline of vegetation.

This paper describes the relationships between large-scale modes of climate variability and its related weather types with the fluctuations in the yield of maize crops in Veneto, Italy. The teleconnections analysed in this work are the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO); the West African monsoon (WAM) and the Intertropical Front (ITF). Despite that these indices are not rigorously linked to one another, they result in being considerably related to atmospheric circulation regimes and associated weather types. They have an impact on temperature and precipitation patterns in Italy and on yields of maize crops in Veneto, a region located in northeast Italy. Yields are strongly affected by large-scale temperate and tropical variability directly through three main circulation regimes. Troughing weather regimes that produced below average temperatures depress yields over the entire Veneto region, as does the zonal regime that affects rainfall. Results confirm the relevance of large-scale modes and associated weather regimes and types on maize crop yields fluctuations in Veneto.

The paper presents results from a study examining the relationship between large-scale modes of climate variability with the fluctuations in the yield of barley, durum wheat, olives and sunflower crops in Tuscany, Italy. In particular, the blocking circulation over the growing season, with associated hot and dry conditions, decreased yield for olive crops, barley and durum wheat. The teleconnections analysed in this study are the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO); the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the Intertropical Front (ITF); and although NAO, SNAO, ITF and WAM are not strictly related to each other, the values of these indices are strongly related to the atmospheric circulation regimes and related weather types. Thus, they have an impact on precipitation and temperature patterns in Italy and on yields of important crops in Tuscany. Results show that the large-scale temperate and tropical variability directly influences the crop yield through three main circulation regimes. These patterns illustrate the importance of the large-scale modes, which, together with the associated weather types, have an impact directly on Tuscan crop yields; both barley and olive yields decline significantly when the ITF is further north with warmer and drier conditions in Italy.

Research on ancient Greek rural settlement and agricultural economies often emphasises political agency as a driving force behind landscape change, with comparatively less attention directed to the potential effects of climate. This study analyses climate variability and the spatial configuration of land use in the north-eastern Peloponnese during the Late Hellenistic and Roman (c. 150 BC–AD 300) periods. A synthesis of archaeological field survey data combined with new palaeoclimatological data provides novel insight into how changing climate influenced land use. The authors argue that although climatic variability alone did not drive socio-economic change, drying conditions may have influenced the relocation of agricultural production.

We examine how migration is influenced by temperature and precipitation variability, and the extent to which the receipt of a cash transfer affects the use of migration as an adaptation strategy. Climate data is merged with georeferenced panel data (2010–2014) on individual migration collected from the Zambian Child Grant Program (CGP) sites. We use the person-year dataset to identify the direct and heterogeneous causal effects of the CGP on mobility. Having access to cash transfers doubles the rate of male, short-distance moves during cool periods, irrespective of wealth. Receipt of cash transfers (among wealthier households) during extreme heat causes an additional retention of males. Cash transfers positively spur long-distance migration under normal climate conditions in the long term. They also facilitate short-distance responses to climate, but not long-distance responses that might be demanded by future climate change.

Identifying options for the sustainable intensification of cropping systems in southern Africa under prevailing high climate risk is needed. With this in mind, we tested an intercropping system that combined the staple crop maize with lablab, a local but underutilised legume. Grain and biomass productivity was determined for four variants (i) sole maize (sole-maize), (ii) sole lablab (sole-lablab), (iii) maize/lablab with both crops sown simultaneously (intercropped-SP) and (iv) maize/lablab with lablab sown 28 days after the maize crop (intercropped-DP). Soil water and weather data were monitored and evaluated. The trial was conducted for two seasons (2015/2016 and 2016/2017) at two sites in the Limpopo Province, South Africa: Univen (847 mm rainfall, 29.2 °C maximum and 18.9 °C minimum temperature average for the cropping season over the years 2008–2017) and Syferkuil (491 mm rainfall, with 27.0 °C maximum and 14.8 °C minimum temperature). Analysis revealed three key results: The treatment with intercropped-SP had significantly lower maize yields (2320 kg ha−1) compared with maize in intercropped-DP (2865 kg ha−1) or sole-maize (2623 kg ha−1). As expected, maize yields in the El Niño affected in season 2015/2016 were on average 1688 kg ha−1 lower than in 2016/2017. Maize yields were significantly lower (957 kg ha−1) at Univen, the warmer site with higher rainfall, than at Syferkuil. In 2015/2016, maximum temperature at Univen exceeded 40 °C around anthesis. Furthermore, soil water was close to the estimated permanent wilting point (PWP) for most of the cropping season, which indicates possible water limitations. In Syferkuil, the soil water was maintained well above PWP. Lablab yields were low, around 500 ha−1, but stable as they were not affected by treatment across season and site. Overall, the study demonstrated that intercropped-DP appears to use available soil water more efficiently than sole maize. Intercropped-DP could therefore be considered as an option for sustainable intensification under high climate risk and resource-limited conditions for smallholders in southern Africa.

In Mali's current context, where the crops sector is particularly exposed and vulnerable to agricultural drought, this study assesses the economy-wide impacts of such events and the potential effectiveness of some adaptation strategies. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we conduct counterfactual simulations of various scenarios accounting for different levels of intensity and frequency of droughts over a 15-year period. We first show how mild, moderate and intense droughts currently experienced by the country affect its economic performance and considerably degrade the welfare of its households. We also show how these negative impacts could be aggravated in the future by the likely increased number of intense droughts threatened by global climate change. However, we finally show that there appears to be some room for Mali to maneuver in terms of drought-risk management policies, such as fostering the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties, improving drought early warning systems or extending irrigation capacities.

Annually dated tree-rings of 509 live and deadwood limber pine (Pinus flexilis) samples from the semi-arid Wassuk Range, Nevada, yielded a 3996-yr record extending from 1983 BC to AD 2013. Correlations of radial growth with climate were positive for water relations and negative for summer temperatures. Long-term trends of ring-width corresponded to climate variability documented from other proxies, including low growth during the Late Holocene Dry Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and elevated growth during cool, wet periods of the Neoglacial and Little Ice Age. Spline fit of the data indicated that growth decrease in the last 20 years was second lowest on record, surpassed by lowest growth at 20 BC—AD 150. Demographics of limber pine by aspect and elevation were not strongly related to long-term climate dynamics, except in the case of extirpations on all but north aspects at the end of the MCA. Pines occurred persistently on north aspects, where a continuous record existed to present. Elevation shifts were not obvious on any aspect, and no evidence existed for migration above current treeline. Non-climatic factors appear to interact with climate to make north slopes refugial for upland pines in semi-arid regions across four millennia.