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There is a strong consensus in the literature that political sophistication is associated with ‘correct voting’, i.e., the ability to identify the political party that is closest to one’s own political preferences (Lau & Redlawsk, 2006). Since the theory was first formulated two decades ago, however, patterns of news consumption have changed dramatically. Not only is there a massive transfer from print to online formats, but a growing an increasing part of the population has adopted a pattern of ‘news avoidance’. This increasingly prevalent phenomenon leads to a reconsideration of the traditional relation between political interest, political knowledge, news consumption, and the ability to cast an ideologically congruent vote. One of the key elements of news avoidance is the assessment that traditional news is no longer considered as relevant or salient by a substantial number of citizens. What is not yet clear is to what extent this attitude is related to electoral outcomes. Our analysis is based on the results of the BelREP panel survey that was conducted to coincide with the June 2024 elections in Belgium. More specifically we investigated to what extent news avoidance limits ideologically congruent voting, controlling for conventional indicators of political sophistication. The results indicate that news avoidance has a detrimental effect on congruent voting, especially among respondents with low levels of political knowledge.
Building on Cramer’s (2016) foundational work on rural consciousness, we measure place consciousness in Canada as a unified construct capturing both in-group place identification and out-group place resentment. Using data from a large-scale Canadian survey, we then examine how place consciousness relates to federal voting behaviour across a novel typology of six urban, suburban, and rural place types. We find that place consciousness is strongest on the ends of the urban-rural continuum; in low- and high-income rural places, and in core urban contexts with large shares of knowledge economy workers. Strong place consciousness relates to Conservative voting in the former places, and Liberal voting in the latter. Place consciousness is weaker in suburban and working-class urban places, and less systematically related to voting behaviour. By examining place consciousness across place types, our findings reveal the nuanced ways in which place identity and resentment shape vote choice across Canada’s urban–rural cleavage.
This chapter examines the enumeration of ethnic populations in the census, where ‘the tribe question’ has been included since 1948. I trace its evolution – from its origins as self-evidently important with a self-evident list of groups – through numerous changes up to 2019. The powerful social imaginary of ‘42+ tribes’ comes from the 1969 census, despite the numerous changes since then. I show how changes in classifications over time, as well as the way they have been used and narrated by the state, reveal the multiple political purposes of classifying and counting ethnicity. In the colonial period, this centred on ethnic population distribution to support indirect rule via ethnicity, as well as tax collection and labour control. In the postcolonial period, ethnic demographic posturing for electoral purposes or ‘the tyranny of numbers’ became a major driver of interest in ‘the tribe question’. However, since 2009, the census has also been a site of recognition for minorities and of the painting of a portrait of a nation defined by its diversity. In this chapter, I also show how the quintessentially unambiguous nature of ethnic census codes has been rendered ambiguous in useful ways.
This chapter theorises ethnicity as a mode of thought and identification around which ways of being, acting and relating are organised. It is one among many possible anchors for identification, solidarity and difference, though it is the most prominent in Kenya. I discuss how this became so, describing identity and community before colonialism, and offering a history of how ethnicity organised social life under and after colonial rule, especially around elections. I provide a sketch of varied ethnic identifications in Kenya, demonstrating immense variety, not all of which obviously fit an ethnic framework, and many of which entail politics quite different from the ‘big 5’ which dominate studies of elections. Finally, I situate the case of Kenya in a comparative context, highlighting key features of how ethnic classification has operated in Kenya, including reification, colonial penetration, nationhood, demography, and differences between direct and diffuse effects of identification. This section shows that both ethnicity and its classification can be conducive to pluralism and solidarity in Kenya, but perhaps not in other contexts.
This forum continues the Journal of Public Policy’s series for debate and discussion of important ideas in the scholarly study of public policy. This exchange is anchored with an essay by Christopher Wlezien entitled, “On Policy Responsiveness: Conditions for Effective Demand and Supply.” Understanding the connection between the public and the officials meant to represent them is fundamental to democratic governance. While there is a voluminous literature from across the political science and policy studies spectrum, Wlezien offers a new framework for examining the “theoretical conditions for effective policy representation.” He develops the concepts of “input” as a function of public demand, and “output” as the result of policy supplied. Wlezien concludes that we observe a surprising amount of congruence between what the public wants and the policy it receives. This conclusion is in stark contrast to more pessimistic views prominent in the recent literature.
By asking how political communities are constructed and with what boundaries, this book has explored different conceptualizations of nation, different perceptions of territory and dynamics of unity and division. It has presented alternative notions of political community outside of the nation-state paradigm, in communities smaller than the state and going beyond the boundaries of the state. My work has devoted attention to the beginnings of political communities or to their reshaping processes. By establishing boundaries between ‘us’ and ‘them’, these communities defined themselves at different levels: the local, regional, transnational and national levels. In the border region between Ghana and Togo, these political communities were built on top of each other, like a palimpsest, and intersected with the Ghanaian and Togolese states that used these dynamics to their advantage. This book endeavours to make us rethink the notion of the nation-state and its associated concepts in light of these dynamics: citizenship, elections, border and nation-state.
This chapter covers the current state of knowledge on the relationship between terrorism and voter’s preferences and political attitudes. Theoretical models deliver very often ambiguous predictions since, on the one hand, voters may want to punish incumbents for their lack of competence in preventing terrorist attacks but, on the other hand, the “rally-around-the-flag” effect can benefit them. The empirical evidence shows that terrorist attacks change the political preferences of voters and the result of elections. Terrorist attacks usually increase the participation of voters and, in general, the support for right-wing parties since they are perceived by the population as stronger against terrorism than left-wing parties. The effect is stronger the closer is the terrorist attack to the data of the election. Despite these improvements in our knowledge on the empirical relationship between terrorism and political attitudes, there is a need to move to more credible empirical methodologies using natural experiments or agent-based models.
The reintroduction of multiparty elections threatened the survival of the Togolese regime, but they also represented an opportunity to remove potential enemies in neighbouring countries. In Togo, the transition to multiparty elections initiated a period of power contestation where the dictatorial regime of Gnassingbé Eyadema had to adapt, and by doing so, used cross-border mechanisms to its advantage. Chapter 8 shows the implications of cross-border voting in the international relations between Ghana and Togo when Rawlings and Eyadéma used elections in an attempt to topple each other in the 1990s. As a consequence, the chapter concludes on showing the far-reaching international consequences of the ways in which the local level scales up to the national and the transnational levels.
The chapter examines how moral rhetoric is used in party communication using dictionary-based text analysis of party manifestos. The main data include 158 manifestos from six English-speaking democracies (Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States) across thirty-four elections. I first measure moral rhetoric in the aggregate. The measure captures the overall level of moral rhetoric used by a party in its campaign. I show that there is variation in moral rhetoric across countries and within countries. I also show the validity of the measurement approach and its robustness to alternatives. Overall, we learn that moral rhetoric is a distinct aspect of party messaging. I then explore patterns in more disaggregate measures of moral rhetoric. Analyses reveal that there are more commonalities in the ways that parties use moral rhetoric than one might expect. Building on the framework of the Moral Foundations Theory, I find that differences in the moral palettes of the left and the right that we can expect based on prior work are more nuanced and not as stark when we examine specific moral foundations separately and when we examine appeals at the level of issues.
There is a widespread assumption that both ethnicity itself and ethnic conflict, are inevitable. Yet, we know very little about how ethnic identifications function in bureaucratic terms in Africa. The stakes of this problem are rapidly escalating in moves to digital identification and population knowledge systems. Focusing on Kenya, this study provides an urgently needed exploration of where ethnic classifications have come from, and where they might go. Through genealogies of tools of ethnic identification – maps, censuses, ID cards and legal categories for minorities and marginalised communities – Samantha Balaton-Chrimes challenges conventional understandings of classifications as legible. Instead, she shows them to be uncertain and vague in useful ways, opening up new modes of imagining how bureaucracy can be used to advance pluralism. Knowing Ethnicity holds important insights for policymakers and scholars of difference and governmentality in postcolonial societies, as well as African and ethnic politics.
People’s expectations about the outcomes of elections often match their preferences, suggesting that people engage in wishful thinking. This often-documented link between people’s preferences and expectations is particularly pervasive and difficult to debias. One recent exception was a study by Rose and Aspiras (2020, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 33(4), 411–426), where participants who went through a brief perspective-taking intervention showed a reduced preference–expectation link when making predictions about the 2016 U.S. presidential election. We used a similar intervention and extended their research to the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In contrast to Rose and Aspiras, the link between people’s preferences and their expectations was not affected by the perspective-taking intervention. Regardless of whether participants took the perspective of another person or not, they exhibited a strong tendency to predict that their preferred candidate would win. Differences between our study and the study by Rose and Aspiras are discussed, as are the implications of our findings.
In the wake of the 2016 national elections in Ghana, the issue of cross-border voting triggered a nation-wide debate. But who exactly constitutes the electorate? Who is a national, who is a foreigner, and how are these distinctions identified in the Ghana-Togo borderlands? This study analyses how political belonging is constructed and how it interacts with the nation-state in the region, especially where communities lie across borders, or at another level than the nation-state. Based on archival research, interviews, oral tradition and newspaper analysis, Nathalie Raunet discusses a pattern based on legitimating narratives of indigeneity at local, regional and transnational scales. In doing so, this study offers a new interpretation of the relationship between the Ewe-speaking people (located across the south of the Ghana-Togo border), the Ghanaian and Togolese Republics, and their colonial predecessor states. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach, Nathalie Raunet connects the history of the region with contemporary power struggles and issues of belonging and citizenship since the turn of the twentieth century.
This chapter reviews literature on game-theoretic analysis of voting. Both cooperative and noncooperative concepts are used to answer questions, such as, How do candidates or parties propose alternatives to voters in strategic interactions? Why do voters vote? What are the implications of asymmetric information for candidates’ and voters’ incentives? Do prevoting deliberations improve information sharing? If so, through what type of rules? Sophisticated voters may act strategically, and therefore it matters whether one’s choices are pivotal. In the presence of private information, the mechanism design approach is highly appropriate, as voters’ incentives can be heavily influenced by the institutional settings that determine how votes are transformed to election outcomes. The analysis of information aggregation in large-scale elections brings important insights to our understanding of representative democracy. Due to the nonexistence of a core and the cyclical structure of pairwise comparison, there may be a fundamental difficulty in the preference aggregation by majoritarian democracy in large-scale elections. The chapter concludes with questions for future research: How does the limitation of preference/information aggregation in large-scale elections affect the stability of representative democracy? What determines the robustness of democratic norms? What is the role of the media in the presence of information asymmetry, particularly in ideological battles where information filtering can play an exacerbating role?
Abraham Lincoln's political writings were the works of a practical politician, not a political philosopher. Yet, his understanding of American politics was deeply informed by wide and penetrating reading in 19th century liberal political economy. This reading convinced him to be a determined opponent of slavery, and a vigorous promoter of henry clay's 'American system.' both of these programs retained their hold on Lincoln, and when, after his election to the presidency of the United States in 1860, the republic was plunged into civil war over slavery, Lincoln guided the nation toward the erasure of legalized slavery and to an economy favourable to commerce and manufacturing. His victory in the civil war, cut short by his assassination in 1865, nevertheless changed the political culture of the nation for the next sixty years, and set the country on the slow but inexorable path of civil equality for the freed slaves.
Scholars and political observers, alike, have associated political polarization with the weakening of democratic norms and the undermining of accountability, as partisans trade off the public interest against in-group loyalty. We probe how in-group bias shapes support for collective goods in actual high-stakes settings in an especially polarized democracy. Conducting survey experiments in Poland, we examine two scenarios: electoral integrity during the 2023 parliamentary election that could have entrenched authoritarian rule and national security after Russia’s 2022 invasion of neighboring Ukraine. Our findings show pronounced partisan bias undermining support for electoral integrity – approximately 40 per cent of party supporters with an average level of partisanship supported rerunning an election when their party unexpectedly lost – but less bias in judgments about national security, raising the possibility that individuals may view democracy as more of an instrumental than an intrinsic good.
Public rituals of buffalo sacrifice have a prominent place in the political history of eastern India. They were productive activities in agrarian livelihoods, stages for intercommunal politics, unifying spectacles for regional kings, and justifications for colonial military interventions. While their historical scale is much reduced today, in parts of southern Odisha, they remain important political events. Drawing on historical research and long-term ethnographic fieldwork in Odisha’s Kandhamal Hills, this article examines how public rituals of sacrifice form a site of commensuration: a space where interlocal relations of mutuality and difference are temporarily made visible, and where value is defined in the presence of diverse audiences. By focusing on one specific ritual event, I show how these “sacrificial publics” are structured around the tensions of sovereignty (togetherness and transgression) and have long been spaces where different kinds of sovereign power have become legible. Historicizing an enduring sacrificial politics at India’s upland margins, I outline a distinctly anthropological concept of sovereignty—one that reflects the ways human relationships are made commensurable in lasting political formations, sustained through interlocal and intercommunal patterns of recognition.
Elections in Central Asia unfold against a backdrop of digital repression, characterized by network throttling, online content blocking to suppress dissent and targeted online harassment of political opposition and journalists. State-imposed limits on online information availability are compounded by cyber foreign interference, including espionage, information campaigns, and disruptive incidents that have increasingly played a geopolitical role. These multifaceted cyber threats underscore the urgent need for a rapid, concerted policy response aimed at bolstering the integrity of electoral systems and procedures, reducing censorship and enhancing cybersecurity culture and resilience. This chapter explores trends in influencing elections and threatening electoral integrity through cyber means, focusing on both the informational and technical domains, and proposes action-oriented recommendations for cross-sectoral cooperation toward securing elections and the broader digital ecosystem in the region.
In 2015, Russia’s state media regulator Roskomnadzor criminalized sharing information that criticizes and ridicules public figures. The crudity of some of the memes notwithstanding, the state’s swift and heavy-handed response was remarkable the Russian government was afraid of public laughter. In the following years, the state’s stance on internet jocularity only worsened, culminating in the infamous 2019 disrespect of authorities, laws, and a string of criminal cases against those who created or reposted playful memes that made fun of the church and other authorities. Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government has grown even more intolerant, choking every voice of dissent. Nevertheless, many Russians continue to resist the official Kremlin narratives despite the threat of severe punishment; and humor remains one of their “weapons” of choice. The purpose of this chapter is to examine the role of humor in building resilience to authoritarianism and disinformation, especially among the younger generation of Russians. As public jocularity continues to be a powerful resource in both the ongoing struggle for democracy in Russia and in the crackdown on it, we examine humor in the context of the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine and argue that social media plays a role in amplifying humor and contributing to political change.
Evaluating attitudes toward democracy within an authoritarian political system is a complex endeavor. Numerous surveys indicate that a significant majority of Chinese citizens express satisfaction with the current level of democracy in China. To elucidate this intellectual puzzle, this chapter examines how differing understandings of democracy influence perceptions of satisfaction with the state of democratic governance. The findings reveal that Chinese citizens who regard elections and political rights as fundamental to democracy tend to be dissatisfied with the existing democratic framework. Similarly, individuals who espouse liberal democratic values also express dissatisfaction with the current state of democracy.
Representative democracy gives voters the right to influence who governs but its influence on policy making is only indirect. Free and fair referendums give voters the right to decide a policy directly. Elected representatives usually oppose referendums as redundant at best and as undermining their authority at worst. Democratic theorists tend to take electing representatives as normal and as normatively superior. The nominal association of popular decision making and populism has strengthened this negative view. Public opinion surveys show substantial support for holding referendums on important issues. Two major theories offer contrasting explanations for popular support for referendums; they reflect populist values or a commitment to the civic value of participation. This innovative paper tests an integrated model of both theories by the empirical analysis of a 17‐country European survey. There is substantial support for all three civic hypotheses: referendum endorsement is positively influenced by attitudes towards participation, democratic ideals and whether elected representatives are perceived as responsive. By contrast, there is no support for populist hypotheses that the socioeconomically weak and excluded favour referendums and minimal support for the effect of extreme ideologies. The conclusion shows that most criticisms of referendums also apply to policy making by elected representatives. While referendums have limits on their use, there is a democratic argument for holding such ballots on major issues to see whether or not a majority of voters endorse the choice of their nominal representatives.