No-one can predict the future with accuracy. Yet doctors in all disciplines are required to make projections about the future and doctors are held to a level of expertise when exercising professional judgement within their scope of practice. The acquisition of expertise requires a knowledge of what expertise is in itself. Diagnosis is such a skill, demonstrating that unstructured professional judgement seldom exists in the absence of semi-structured or structured approaches to expert judgement. Risk has been taken as a paradigm for structured professional judgement. A thorough understanding of the nature of expertise in psychiatry and in the courts is necessary for the practice of forensic psychiatry. The process of both teaching and acquiring clinical expertise is considered both from first principles and in relation to topics such as the use of structured professional judgement instruments and judgement support frameworks. These extend to all aspects of practice including triage and needs assessment, leave, conditional discharge, treatment programme completion, forensic recovery, a range of functional mental capacities, legal defences and reliability.

In this chapter, we ask what economic modeling can tell us about the likelihood that firms will invent an AGI: how much and for how long must they sustain investment in R&D to obtain such an invention? We develop a novel Real Options Model, one that uses a stochastic compound Poisson process, to explicitly take into account that a radical innovation such as an AGI is subject to much more uncertainty than typical business investments – which also helps throw light of the breakthroughs and backlashes that have characterized periodic AI winters. An important conclusion from the modelling in this chapter is that it will most likely be largely government-funded agencies and/or a few large corporations that will invent an AGI, if it is ever invented.

This chapter tests cycles of silence in Lagos to evaluate its applicability in a Global South context where, unlike Baltimore, the state and the police have limited resources. The chapter’s results come from an original survey of shopkeepers, paired with interviews and observation, in the city’s expansive markets, pockets in which “area boy” crews engage in violence and extortion. Consistent with the patterns found in Baltimore, area boy violence reduces cooperation by boosting perceived retaliation risk and making cooperation norms appear to be weaker than they are. Underlying cooperation support exists among shopkeepers, the chapter’s final section explains, in part, because the area boy crews have largely failed to gain legitimacy with Lagosians.

This chapter tests cycles of silence theory in Baltimore to evaluate its applicability in a Global North context where the state and the police are well resourced. It provides background on how Baltimore residents become exposed to violence by drug crews and details the results from an original survey of residents in the city’s violence- affected communities. Violence heightens perceived retaliation risk, and the heightened risk perception in turn pushes residents who support cooperation to keep that support private. As result, residents share less information than they otherwise would in absence of this norm suppression. The chapter’s final section explains that the underlying cooperation support exists, because the drug crews have largely failed to gain legitimacy in eyes of residents.

This chapter details cycles of silence theory explaining how criminal groups constrain citizen cooperation with the police. Criminal group violence not only reduces cooperation by heightening retaliation risk to cooperators but also by making community norms favoring cooperation appear weaker than they are to citizens. Due to violence- induced retaliation risk, citizens who support cooperation are forced to keep that support private. The potency of social norms in driving human behavior means that this suppression of norms that favor cooperation ultimately reduce witnesses’ willingness to come forward with information. The chapter also interrogates the theory’s central premise that underlying support for cooperation exists in communities. Perceptions of police and criminal group legitimacy are an important driver of support, so cycles of silence dynamics primarily operate in communities where criminal groups have failed to gain legitimacy. The chapter then theorizes why criminal groups’ primary goal of illicit economic gain undermines their legitimization efforts.

Advances in biomarker science are transforming the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. First, clinicians can now identify Alzheimer’s disease neuropathology in situ, years, or even decades, before the onset of cognitive and functional impairment using biomarkers, particularly measures of amyloid, tau, and neurodegeneration. Second, there is growing evidence that other digital markers – for instance, changes in banking and driving patterns – can be used to identify older adults at increased risk of cognitive decline. As a result of these two advances, there is growing interest in monitoring older adults for incipient changes in cognition that might affect their wellbeing. This monitoring can be no-tech, such as when an older adult asks a friend or family member to let them know if they start repeating questions or retelling stories. Or it can be high-tech, such as installing a device in one’s car that tracks sudden accelerations and decelerations and the distance traveled from home. While there is great enthusiasm for this kind of monitoring among clinicians and researchers, and even, as our own research shows, among some older adults and their family members, other older adults deem monitoring to be an unwanted intrusion on their privacy. This chapter discusses the changing understanding of Alzheimer’s disease risk; presents data on the desire for monitoring, highlighting the potential for intrafamilial conflict; considers the ethical obligations of non-health businesses to collect or disclose information about Alzheimer’s disease risk; and, finally, identifies potential ethical and legal challenges – such as privacy, stigma, and discrimination – with possible solutions.

This chapter explores the ways that rivers could shift from cultural and economic resource to sites of risk. Beginning with a close reading of the early medieval historian Gregory of Tours, it argues that as a bishop, Gregory saw rivers both as sites of regular and significant economic and cultural risk and of potential religious salvation. This balance between practical and religious response and representation weaves through the chapter, which draws heavily on hagiographical accounts and historical sources to explore cultural constructions of “risk.” Rivers were sources of economic and political instability, and threats to cultural memory and cohesion. Floods, shipwrecks, drought, and other disasters are found throughout medieval narrative, and form the basis of this chapter’s analysis. Finally, this chapter argues that medieval authors also saw rivers as connected to existential threats: the “Flood,” sin, demons, and the dissolution of memory and cultural identity. Paired with these fears, those same rivers became sources of salvation and markers of sanctity.

Farmers, herders, and the practitioners of diversified economies are interesting to human behavioral ecologists because they encounter similar trade-offs of energy, time, and risk that characterized ancestral populations of humans. Studies of agriculture, herding, and mixed economies also examine choices about how much labor and other inputs to invest in order to increase yields and diminish variability, whether to consume, share, or sell products in markets, and how to manage resources through social institutions. This chapter reviews research and key studies on the five themes of risk, time, investment and intensification, markets, and institutions. The chapter discusses the tricky issue of commensurability, of comparatively evaluating dissimilar forms of value such as calories and cash, certainty and unpredictability, and immediacy and delay. The conclusion proposes avenues for future research, involving niche construction, embodied capital, cooperation and competition, culture, and applied evolutionary anthropology.

This chapter explores the connections between ethics, the phenomenological (and hermeneutical) traditions, and education. It focuses on the idea of the subject, showing phenomenology’s contrast with the modernist picture of the autonomous subject. The chapter first briefly traces the idea of the subject in phenomenology through four representative figures – Husserl, Heidegger, Gadamer, and Levinas – and then sketches their approaches to ethics. Then it pivots to four ethical concepts in philosophy of education in this tradition – understanding, risk, subjectification, and responsibility – by connecting them to phenomenological tradition’s broad conception of the subject. The chapter brings into relief the contribution phenomenology makes to envisioning living well together and human flourishing, and education’s role in fostering ethical subjects that would enact such societies.

Malala Yousafzai won the Nobel Peace Prize when she was seventeen. In part, the world knows about her because when the Taliban prohibited girls from attending school in Afghanistan, she spoke up about it, writing articles and giving talks. As is clear by her writing, Malala has strong values that include justice and equality for women as well as a love of learning and education. She also values safety. In making her choice to speak up and criticize her government’s decision, Malala was aware that she was increasing risks to herself and her family. In response, the Taliban shot (then fifteen-year-old) Malala in the head while she was on a school bus. Thankfully, she survived and continues to advocate for a future where girls are free to learn and lead.

Malala made decisions based on trade-offs among her values, even when the priority she placed on equality and justice made her vulnerable to Taliban hostility and increased her own risk of death.

After earning a commerce degree, Will got a corporate job and wore a suit to work every day, then came home to a rental condo in the city he shared with his girlfriend. After about a year he started to wonder why he wasn’t happy. Maybe if he took more time off or got a dog? But after another year of his job, a bit of travelling with his girlfriend, and a year of going on jogs and throwing sticks for their puppy, he still felt miserable. Will realized he had been doing all the things that mattered to others without knowing what truly mattered to himself. In a flurry of decisions, Will quit his job, broke up with his girlfriend, and moved back in with his parents. That’s when he ran into an old family friend, Leah, and, in a rush of details, told her about his life since graduation.

We explore ethical premises and practical implications of using genetic testing to predict suicide risk. Twin studies indicate heritable components of suicide risk, and associated heritability of mental disorders. Currently, genetics research has abandoned seeking single gene Mendelian determinants, in favour of complex probabilistic epigenetic models. Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) may identify thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), each contributing very little to the variance in behavioural phenotypes. Since suicide is a behaviour rather than a phenotype, with many different causal aetiologies, it is impossible to predict the behaviours of individuals. We analyse practical and ethical issues that would arise if future research were to identify genetic information that accurately predicts suicide. We examine analytical validity, clinical validity, clinical utility and ethical, legal and social implications. Low sensitivity and specificity for predicting suicide diminish potential advantages and exacerbate risks. We discuss risks of unregulated direct-to-consumer genetic testing services. If someday genetic testing can accurately identify suicide risk in individuals, its use would be contraindicated if we cannot provide effective preventive interventions and mitigate negative impacts of informing people of their suicide risk.

Innovative finance is before all finance, therefore this chapter explores the fundamentals of finance that will be applicable to the three sources of finance discussed below: climate finance, islamic financer and blended finance.