To send content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about sending content to .
To send content items to your Kindle, first ensure firstname.lastname@example.org
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about sending to your Kindle.
Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
This chapter explores the centrality of risk information to the construction of managerial agency. It is argued that this theme has been neglected by policy makers and others in the debate about risk culture in financial services. This debate is characterised by an underlying individualism in the approach to culture in general, and risk culture specifically, focusing ultimately on values and incentives as the core features of behaviour, from traders to board members. In contrast, drawing on a range of studies in the organisational sociology of risk, it is argued that information infrastructures are profoundly cultural and shape organisational values and the quality of decision making. Three illustrative themes – networking, technology and governance - are discussed and generate three indicative and testable propositions about the importance of information for risk culture. These three discussions also point to the fundamental role of an “appetite for knowledge” which varies between organisations and across fields. This revealed appetite is indicative and generative of organisational culture. Efforts to reform the culture of the financial services industry should therefore begin with understanding how information infrastructures do or don’t shape what counts as “doing the right thing”, rather conducting endless attitudinal surveys of individuals.
William James’ argument against William Clifford in The Will to Believe is often understood in terms of doxastic efficacy, the power of belief to influence an outcome. Although that is one strand of James’ argument, there is another which is driven by ampliative risk. The second strand of James’ argument, when applied to scientific cases, is tantamount to what is now called the Argument from Inductive Risk. Either strand of James’ argument is sufficient to rebut Clifford's strong evidentialism and show that it is sometimes permissible to believe in the absence of compelling evidence. However, the two considerations have different scope and force. Doxastic efficacy applies in only some cases but allows any values to play a role in determining belief; risk applies in all cases but only allows particular conditional values to play a role.
Objective: Gain an understanding of how observations can vary, how to estimate effects and account for some of that variation, and how to incorporate variation not otherwise controllable into modeling and risk profiling efforts.
This paper aims at providing an account of the Islamic conception of Gharar in contrast to the current Western conceptualisation of risk, using the respective financial legal frameworks of both as the criterion. One of the more decisive stakes of the difference in approach between the Islamic and contemporary Western legal orders today concern the regulation of financial markets; specifically, the definitions of risk and uncertainty – crucial characteristics of modern economies – can be understood as preferentially related to specific features of Islamic law. In the end, according to Knight, money-creation processes are centred on uncertainty. Without uncertainty, there is no profit. This is why, although different at first sight, Islamic finance with its understanding of permissible Gharar and Western finance with its uncertainty-aversion trend have become more resilient, especially since the financial crisis (2007–2010).
To make a tentative assessment of the consumption of cassava in three countries in South-east Asia and the cyanogenic potential (CNp) of the crop as a possible food safety issue.
We used data from the Ministry of Health in Vietnam and Statistics Authorities in Indonesia and Philippines (mean household consumption per province) to assess cassava consumption. Conversions of units were needed to facilitate the comparison of cassava consumption between countries. The most up-to-date data available regarding both cassava consumption and the CNp of cassava grown in the respective countries were assessed.
Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines.
Respondents from provinces in Vietnam (nineteen), Indonesia (thirty-three) and Philippines (eighty-one) were asked to complete a recall questionnaire detailing either the previous 24-h’ or the 7-d’ cassava consumption.
Among the three countries, available data indicated that the highest median cassava-consumption figures percapita were from Indonesia and the Philippines (9·01 and 7·28 g/capita per d, respectively), with Vietnam having the least (1·14 g/capita per d). Published information regarding the CNp of cassava in the three countries was limited.
While the findings of the present study are somewhat limited by a lack of available information regarding both the extent of cassava consumption and the CNp of cassava consumed in the three countries, it appears likely that cyanogen intake arising from cassava consumption among the three countries exceeds the FAO/WHO Provisional Maximum Tolerable Daily Intake, although any risk to public health appears limited to a minority of provinces in each country.
We consider various aspects of longevity trend risk viewed through the prism of a finite time window. We show the broad equivalence of value-at-risk (VaR) capital requirements at a p-value of 99.5% to conditional tail expectations (CTEs) at 99%. We also show how deferred annuities have higher risk, which can require double the solvency capital of equivalently aged immediate anuities. However, results vary considerably with the choice of model and so longevity trend-risk capital can only be determined through consideration of multiple models to inform actuarial judgement. This model risk is even starker when trying to value longevity derivatives. We briefly discuss the importance of using smoothed models and describe two methods to considerably shorten VaR and CTE run times.
In this short Research Reflection I address and refute the suggestion that oestrogens consumed in milk might contribute in a significant way to endogenous levels and thereby have a physiological action, possibly resulting in adverse consequences including increased breast cancer risk. Quantitative analysis based on published data shows that, even in worst case scenarios, oestrogen consumption in milk is considerably less than regulatory bodies regard as entirely safe.
To assess the Framingham risk score as a prognostic tool for idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss patients.
Medical records were reviewed for unilateral idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss patients between January 2010 and October 2017. The 10-year risk of developing cardiovascular disease was calculated. Patients were subdivided into groups: group 1 – Framingham risk score of less than 10 per cent (n = 28); group 2 – score of 10 to less than 20 per cent (n = 6); and group 3 – score of 20 per cent or higher (n = 5).
Initial pure tone average and Framingham risk score were not significantly associated (p = 0.32). Thirteen patients in group 1 recovered completely (46.4 per cent), but none in groups 2 and 3 showed complete recovery. Initial pure tone average and Framingham risk score were significantly associated in multivariable linear regression analysis (R2 = 0.36). The regression coefficient was 0.33 (p = 0.003) for initial pure tone average and −0.67 (p = 0.005) for Framingham risk score.
Framingham risk score may be useful in predicting outcomes for idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss patients, as those with a higher score showed poorer hearing recovery.
The use of statins in children, although not frequent, is recommended in specific clinical contexts, namely, familial hypercholesterolaemia, conditions carrying a moderate-high cardiovascular risk and sub-optimal cholesterol levels after implementation of lifestyle modifications. The aim of this study is to characterise children with dyslipidaemia managed with statins, followed at a tertiary referral centre in central Portugal.
Methods and results:
The authors carried out a retrospective and descriptive study made up of 66 patients (50% males, mean age of therapy onset 11.9 years) followed up at the Cardiovascular Clinic of a tertiary referral centre between January, 2012, and May, 2018. Clinical, analytical, and echocardiographic parameters were analysed. About 60.6% had clinical and/or molecular diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolaemia. On average, each patient had three cardiovascular risk factors, obesity (31%) being most prevalent, followed by arterial hypertension (14%). Statin therapy showed a statistically significant reduction in the lipid profile, particularly in the total cholesterol (23%) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (30%) levels, as well as in the carotid intima-media thickness (p = 0.015). Hepatic and muscle integrity markers were within normal range.
Statins are safe and efficient in the management of children with hypercholesterolaemia. Our study showed that apart from its lipid-lowering properties, it also reduced significantly the carotid intima-media thickness and, implicitly, the cardiovascular risk of these patients.
Experiences of childhood trauma (CT) are associated with increased psychological vulnerability. Past research suggests that CT might alter stress processing with a subsequent negative impact on mental health. However, it is currently unclear how different domains of CT exert effects on specific subjective experiences of stress during adulthood.
In the present study, we used network analysis to explore the complex interplay between distinct domains of CT and perceived stress in a large, general-population sample of middle-aged adults (N = 1252). We used a data-driven community-detection algorithm to identify strongly connected subgroups of items within the network. To assess the replicability of the findings, we repeated the analyses in a second sample (N = 862). Combining data from both samples, we evaluated network differences between men (n = 955) and women (n = 1159).
Results indicate specific associations between distinct domains of CT and perceived stress. CT domains reflecting a dimension of deprivation, i.e. experiences of neglect, were associated exclusively to a stress network community representing low perceived self-efficacy. By contrast, CT associated with threat, i.e. experiences of abuse, was specifically related to a stress community reflecting perceived helplessness. Our results replicated with high accordance in the second sample. We found no difference in network structure between men and women, but overall a stronger connected network in women.
Our findings emphasize the unique role of distinct domains of CT in psychological stress processes in adulthood, implying opportunities for targeted interventions following distinct domains of CT.
Clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis is indicated by ultra-high risk (UHR) and basic symptom (BS) criteria; however, conversion rates are highest when both UHR and BS criteria are fulfilled (UHR&BS). While BSs are considered the most immediate expression of neurobiological aberrations underlying the development of psychosis, research on neurobiological correlates of BS is scarce.
We investigated gray matter volumes (GMV) of 20 regions of interest (ROI) previously associated with UHR criteria in 90 patients from the Bern early detection service: clinical controls (CC), first-episode psychosis (FEP), UHR, BS and UHR&BS. We expected lowest GMV in FEP and UHR&BS, and highest volume in CC with UHR and BS in-between.
Significantly, lower GMV was detected in FEP and UHR&BS patients relative to CC with no other significant between-group differences. When ROIs were analyzed separately, seven showed a significant group effect (FDR corrected), with five (inferior parietal, medial orbitofrontal, lateral occipital, middle temporal, precuneus) showing significantly lower GM volume in the FEP and/or UHR&BS groups than in the CC group (Bonferroni corrected). In the CHR group, only COGDIS scores correlated negatively with cortical volumes.
This is the first study to demonstrate that patients who fulfill both UHR and BS criteria – a population that has been associated with higher conversion rates – exhibit more severe GMV reductions relative to those who satisfy BS or UHR criteria alone. This result was mediated by the BS in the UHR&BS group, as only the severity of BS was linked to GMV reductions.
This paper studies an optimal deterministic investment problem for a DC pension plan member with inflation risk. We describe the price processes of the inflation-indexed bond and the stock by a continuous diffusion process and a jump diffusion process with random parameters, respectively. The contribution rate linked to the income of the DC plan member is assumed to be a non-Markovian adapted process. Under the mean-variance criterion, we use Malliavin calculus to derive a characterization for the optimal deterministic investment strategy. In some special cases, we obtain the explicit expressions for the optimal deterministic strategies.
This paper presents analytical representations for an optimal insurance contract under distortion risk measure and in the presence of model uncertainty. We incorporate ambiguity aversion and distortion risk measure through the model of Robert and Therond [(2014) ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA, 44(2), 277–302.] as per the framework of Klibanoff et al. [(2005) A smooth model of decision making under ambiguity. Econometrica, 73(6), 1849–1892.]. Explicit optimal insurance indemnity functions are derived when the decision maker (DM) applies Value-at-Risk as risk measure and is ambiguous about the loss distribution. Our results show that: (1) under model uncertainty, ambiguity aversion results in a distorted probability distribution over the set of possible models with a bias in favor of the model which yields a larger risk; (2) a more ambiguity-averse DM would demand more insurance coverage; (3) for a given budget, uncertainties about the loss distribution result in higher risk level for the DM.
In the present study, a new method for a decision-support system for fungicide administration against the pathogen Botrytis cinerea in vineyards was developed based on Integrated Pest Management principles which identified an infection risk before the appearance of disease symptoms. The proposed method is based on the combination of (i) the phenological observations of the main susceptible stages to infection, (ii) the airborne spores monitoring, (iii) the forecasting of the suitable meteorological conditions for B. cinerea spore germination during the subsequent 4–6 days after the spore detection. Aerobiological, phenological and meteorological analyses were carried out using data from 2008 to 2015 in a vineyard of Northwestern Spain. Aerobiological spore data were obtained using a Lanzoni VPPS-2000 pollen-spore trap. Phenological observations were conducted on 22 plants of Treixadura cultivar following the BBCH (Biologische Bundesanstalt für Land und Forstwirtschaft, Bundessortenamt und CHemische Industrie) scale. The Magarey generic fungal model was applied for the identification of the main meteorological suitable periods for infection within the susceptible phenological stages of flowering and ripening of berries. Our results showed that climatic conditions favoured fungal development during flowering, although a higher incidence of B. cinerea infection risk-periods occurred during the prior-to-harvest stage of ripening of berries, the most susceptible phenological stage to B. cinerea infection obtained by the proposed methodology. This approach enables more precise targeting in pesticide spraying and reduction in pesticide application from 4–5 to 2–3 times per year at our commercial study. It also illustrates the real-world benefits of integrated disease risk modelling.
Although there is growing interest in mental health problems in university students there is limited understanding of the scope of need and determinants to inform intervention efforts.
To longitudinally examine the extent and persistence of mental health symptoms and the importance of psychosocial and lifestyle factors for student mental health and academic outcomes.
Undergraduates at a Canadian university were invited to complete electronic surveys at entry and completion of their first year. The baseline survey measured important distal and proximal risk factors and the follow-up assessed mental health and well-being. Surveys were linked to academic grades. Multivariable models of risk factors and mental health and academic outcomes were fit and adjusted for confounders.
In 1530 students surveyed at entry to university 28% and 33% screened positive for clinically significant depressive and anxiety symptoms respectively, which increased to 36% and 39% at the completion of first year. Over the academic year, 14% of students reported suicidal thoughts and 1.6% suicide attempts. Moreover, there was persistence and overlap in these mental health outcomes. Modifiable psychosocial and lifestyle factors at entry were associated with positive screens for mental health outcomes at completion of first year, while anxiety and depressive symptoms were associated with lower grades and university well-being.
Clinically significant mental health symptoms are common and persistent among first-year university students and have a negative impact on academic performance and well-being. A comprehensive mental health strategy that includes a whole university approach to prevention and targeted early-intervention measures and associated research is justified.
This study used a person-centered approach to identify subgroups of adolescents who are at risk for depression and suicidal ideation. Latent class analysis was first applied to 1,290 adolescents from a Canadian cohort study in order to identify latent vulnerability subtypes based on 18 psychosocial vulnerability factors. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to study the associations between class membership and depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation 2 years later. The moderating role of sex in the associations between latent classes and depressive symptoms was explored. Five latent classes were identified: Low Vulnerability (42%), Substance Use Only (13%), Moderate Vulnerability (28%), Conduct Problems (8%) and High Vulnerability (9%). Compared with the Low Vulnerability class, the probabilities of presenting depressive symptoms were higher for the Substance Use Only class, OR = 1.93, 95% CI [1.21, 3.06], the Moderate Vulnerability class, OR = 2.96, 95% CI [2.09, 4.20], the Conduct Problems class, OR = 3.03, 95% CI [1.84, 4.98], and the High Vulnerability class, OR = 5.4, 95% CI [3.42, 8.53]. Furthermore, interaction effects with sex were identified in relation to depressive symptoms only. The probability of presenting suicidal ideation was higher only for the High Vulnerability class, OR = 4.51, 95% CI [2.41, 8.43]. This study highlights the importance of a person-centered perspective that considers both vulnerability subtypes and sex because these associations are complex rather than linear or additive.
There is strong evidence that schizotypal PD is a schizophrenia-spectrum disorder and an initial diagnosis of schizotypal PD is a strong predictor of future onset of schizophrenia. Despite this evidence, there are questions about whether schizotypal PD or the other Cluster A disorders as currently diagnosed best reflect traits indicating risk for schizophrenia. Further, it is still not empirically resolved to what extent positive schizotypal symptoms reflect genetic risk for schizophrenia. There is strong evidence that schizotypal PD is related to psychological trauma. At the same time, there is evidence that some schizotypal symptoms do appear to reflect variation on normal personality traits, but it is still unresolved whether and how schizotypal symptoms reflect high levels of openness to experience. Cluster A disorders appear to be more common than often assumed and have been associated with poor functioning, but there is a lack of treatment research on these disorders.