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Although often associated with ageing, disability is becoming increasingly prevalent among young adults. While disability can pose a substantial psychological burden for young adults on critical pathways to establish the foundations for their future, the mental health risks faced by this population remain underexplored.
Aims
This study aimed to (1) assess the association between disability – including its presence, severity and type – and the risk of depressive and anxiety disorders, and (2) examine whether this association varies across sociodemographic factors, health behaviours and comorbidities in a young adult population.
Methods
We conducted a population-based cohort study using linked data from the National Disability Registry and the National Health Insurance Database of South Korea. A total of 6,058,290 individuals aged 20–39 years who underwent health check-ups between 2009 and 2012 were followed through 2022. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for depressive and anxiety disorders.
Results
Individuals with disabilities had significantly higher risks of depressive (aHR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.55–1.60) and anxiety disorders (aHR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.42–1.59). Increased risks were consistently observed across various disability types with the highest risk observed for mental health-related disabilities in depression (aHR: 4.98, 95% CI 4.62–5.37) and epilepsy-related disabilities in anxiety disorders (aHR: 12.05, 95% CI 8.73–16.63). Subgroup analyses revealed stronger associations among individuals in their 20s, low-income groups, non-smokers and those abstaining from alcohol, compared to their respective counterparts.
Conclusions
Young adults with disabilities, a population that has been relatively overlooked in policy discussions, warrant greater policy attention in relation to their mental health.
In this article, the effects of regional autocratic linkage on the survival of autocratic regimes are analysed. Scholars have suggested that regional factors shape regime survival through processes of diffusion. However, in most accounts, diffusion is simply derived from characteristics of the region, such as the number or proportion of regional autocracies. In contrast, it is argued here that it is the actual linkages between countries that must be examined. Regional political, economic and social ties between autocratic regimes create domestic and external stakes in the regime, counterweigh democratisation pressure and facilitate autocratic learning. The study employs the average volume of trade, migration and diplomatic exchanges between autocratic regimes within a region as proxies for regional autocratic linkage, and asserts that regional autocratic linkage is on the rise. Applying Cox survival models on a dataset of regional autocratic linkage and regime survival between 1946 and 2009, it is found that regional autocratic linkage significantly reduces the likelihood of autocratic regime breakdown. These effects hold when the proportion of autocratic regimes within a region is controlled for, suggesting that one must look beyond the characteristics of the countries within a region and focus on the ties and linkages between them.
The objective of this article is to contribute to an understanding of the evolution of a population of social economy enterprises faced with the economic crisis, namely by referring to the case of Montreal. We apply a two-step approach. For one, we use an innovative discrete-time survival model that takes spatial heterogeneity into account. In a second step, this model is used to predict the survival of different forms of the social economy, according to various proposed typologies for identifying hybrid organizational forms. It is understood that certain organizational forms (professional social economy) have fared better than others (emerging social economy). Organizations combining several sources of financing and several forms of paid or volunteer work likewise have greater chances of survival.
Co-optation is one of the most important concepts that have been discussed in recent years to explain the persistence of autocratic regimes. Institutions like parties, legislatures, and elections have all been shown to fulfil a co-optation function. However, a broader assessment of co-optation beyond an institutional focus has yet to be undertaken. This article addresses this lacuna and presents a comprehensive concept and operationalisation of co-optation in autocratic regimes. The article argues that co-optation is constituted by the compensation of the regime’s vulnerability to threats posed by powerful societal pressure groups. The article highlights how compensation of vulnerability can be achieved through institutional inclusion or material benefits, and how this has to be tailored to the respective pressure group’s requirements. I collect twenty-six indicators of vulnerability and compensation related to six societal pressure groups and aggregate them into an index of co-optation that reflects the structure of the theoretical concept. The index is evaluated by examining distributions within and across categories of autocratic legislatures, and by testing its effect on autocratic regime breakdown in a set of Cox survival models.
Timely dissemination of clinical trial results is essential to advance knowledge, guide practice, and improve outcomes, yet many trials remain unpublished, limiting impact. We examine what drives publication and timelines across three major clinical domains.
Methods:
We analyzed study design and factors associated with dissemination of interventional trials, focusing on cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and COVID-19. A total of 10,785 trials (CVD: 5929; cancer: 4210; COVID-19: 646) were linked to PubMed publications using National Clinical Trial identifiers. Study design, operational, and transparency-related features were assessed as predictors of time to publication, defined as the interval from study completion to first publication, using Cox proportional hazards model.
Results:
COVID-19 trials had the highest publication rate (49.6%), followed by CVD (42.3%) and cancer (32.9%), likely reflecting pandemic-related prioritization. Faster publication was associated with larger enrollment, more sites, result posting, randomization, DMC presence, and higher blinding levels (all p < 0.05). Slower publication was linked to supportive care or diagnostic trials (CVD), basic science (cancer), and later COVID-19 trial completion. In subgroups, U.S. facility presence (CVD) and phase 3 design (cancer) predicted faster publication, while healthy volunteer inclusion (CVD) predicted slower publication. Among DMC trials, more secondary outcomes were linked to faster publication across all disease areas.
Conclusions:
Key study design and operational factors consistently predict whether and when trials are published. Strengthening methodological rigor, result reporting, and multi-site collaboration may accelerate timely dissemination into peer-reviewed literature.
In this study, we investigate the impact of the age of prime ministers and ministers on the stability of governments across 21 democracies. We examine this issue by using Cox survival analysis, leveraging an original dataset and adopting a comparative perspective. The findings of the study document that younger prime ministers face a lower risk of government discretionary termination compared to their older counterparts. This effect does not appear to be statistically significant for cabinet ministers. By shedding light on this uncharted relationship, we contribute to the flourishing literature on youth representation in politics and the established research agenda on the factors affecting the survival in office of democratic governments. We conclude the study by discussing the implications of the findings for democracy and suggesting avenues for future research.
Palliative care enhances life, but rural Australia faces significant inequities, and psychosocial distress, an important yet often overlooked aspect, is under-recognized in these settings. This study examines how psychosocial distress evolves in rural palliative patients using the Death and Dying Distress Scale (DADDS).
Methods
A longitudinal study was conducted with palliative care patients in rural hospitals on Australia’s east coast. Distress levels were measured using DADDS at multiple timepoints. Mixed-effects models assessed distress trajectories, while survival analyses (Weibull model) examined whether average distress changes predicted survival duration. For comparability, DADDS scores in mixed-effects models were standardized (0–100%), whereas survival analyses used raw total score changes.
Results
Adjusted mean total DADDS was 37.14 ± 22.67, with highest distress in fear of suffering and pain (49.95 ± 26.56) and lowest in fear of sudden death (30.26 ± 30.24). Distress followed a U-shaped trajectory: peaking early (52.68), declining mid (29.85) and late stages (28.26), then rising near death (53.05) (EMMs). Statistically significant changes included declines from early to mid-stage (β = −22.84, p = 0.007) and increases from late to near-death (β = 24.79, p = 0.003). Distress increased most from late to near-death in fear of suffering and death (β = 27.38, p = 0.006) and declined most from early to mid-stage in fear of dying (β = 28.01, p = 0.007). Higher distress correlated with shorter survival; each one-point increase in distress linked to a 6.97% survival reduction (time ratio = 0.930, β = −0.070, p < 0.001).
Significance of results
Psychosocial distress peaks in early palliative care and near death and is associated with reduced survival. Support should prioritize fears of suffering and pain during these stages, address fear of the dying process earlier, and remain attentive to persistent concerns such as loss of time and opportunity.
Depression is the most common psychiatric disorder among patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), yet the risk factors for mortality in this population remain unclear.
Aims
To identify risk factors for mortality in ESRD patients with depression and assess the incidence of suicide attempts.
Method
We used Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database to identify adult patients who initiated maintenance dialysis between 1997 and 2012. Two ESRD cohorts were established at a depression-to-non-depression ratio of 1:8, matched by age and gender (n = 3289 with depression; n = 26 312 without depression). Outcomes included all-cause mortality and suicide attempts, with additional subgroup analyses by baseline depression severity.
Results
ESRD patients with depression had a higher mortality risk (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% CI: 1.10–1.21) than those without. Risk factors for mortality included male gender, older age, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Patients with depression also had a higher risk of suicide attempts (hazard ratio 3.02, 95% CI: 1.68–5.42). ESRD patients with severe depression had a significantly higher rate of hospital admissions for depression compared to those with non-severe depression (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.82, 95% CI: 1.14–2.93). Furthermore, patients with severe depression were associated with a significantly higher mortality rate compared to those without depression (IRR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.15–1.76).
Conclusions
Depression is linked to poor survival in ESRD patients, with underlying comorbidities playing a key role in mortality. Given the increased risk of mortality, suicide attempts and hospital admissions, these high-risk patients require enhanced medical attention, particularly those with severe depression.
This study examines gender bias in the investigative work of medieval inquisitors, focusing on Albert of Castellario’s trial of the Waldensians in Giaveno, Italy, in 1335. Drawing upon advancements in sociological and criminological literature, we conceptualize an inquisitorial trial as a discretionary information-gathering endeavor contingent upon the inquisitor’s judgment in deciding which leads to pursue. Employing social network analysis and survival methods, we evaluate whether Albert demonstrated gender biases in his investigative decisions, particularly regarding the weight assigned to testimonies from men versus women. Our findings demonstrate that Albert was more inclined to investigate men and prioritize their testimonies, even where similar levels of incriminating evidence were present for both genders. These results highlight the influence of societal attitudes toward gender on inquisitorial practices, on the representativeness of historical records, and on prevailing understandings of heretical groups. Furthermore, this study underscores the broader utility of our methodological framework for addressing related historical inquiries, including the political motivations behind the medieval inquisition.
The Cox duration model serves as the basis for more complex duration models like competing risks, repeated events, and multistate models. These models make a number of assumptions, many of which can be assessed empirically, sometimes for substantive ends. We use Monte Carlo simulations to show the order in which practitioners assess these assumptions can impact the model’s final specification, and ultimately, can produce misleading inferences. We focus on three assumptions regarding model specification decisions: proportional hazards (PH), stratified baseline hazards, and stratum-specific covariate effects. Our results suggest checking the PH assumption before checking for stratum-specific covariate effects tends to produce the correct final specification most frequently. We reexamine a recent study of the timing of GATT/WTO applications to illustrate our points.
To examine the potential indirect effect of meal frequency on mortality via obesity indices.
Design:
Prospective cohort study
Setting:
Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study.
Participants:
This cohort study involved 148 438 South Korean adults aged 40 years and older.
Results:
Meal frequency at the baseline survey was assessed using a validated FFQ. Outcomes included all-cause mortality, cancer mortality and CVD mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to examine the relationship between meal frequency and the risk of mortality. Mediation analyses were performed with changes in obesity indices (BMI and weight circumference (WC)) as mediators. In comparison to the three-time group, the once-per-day and four-times-per-day groups had a higher risk for all-cause mortality. The irregular frequency group had a higher risk for CVD mortality. Both once-per-day and four-times-per-day groups exhibited higher risks for cancer mortality. The effect of meal frequency on all-cause mortality was partially mediated by WC. For specific-cause mortality, similar mediation effects were found.
Conclusions:
The data suggests that three meals per day have a lower mortality and longer life expectancy compared with other meal frequencies. Increased waist circumference partially mediates this effect. These findings support the implementation of a strategy that addresses meal frequency and weight reduction together.
Developmental studies of mental disorders based on epidemiological data are often based on cross-sectional retrospective surveys. Under such designs, observations are right-censored, causing underestimation of lifetime prevalences and correlations, and inducing bias in latent trait models on the observations. In this paper we propose a Partial Likelihood (PL) method to estimate unbiased IRT models of lifetime predisposition to develop a certain outcome. A two-step estimation procedure corrects the IRT likelihood of outcome appearance with a function depending on (a) projected outcome frequencies at the end of the risk period, and (b) outcome censoring status at the time of the observation. Simulation results showed that the PL method yielded good recovery of true frequencies and intercepts. Slopes were best estimated when events were sufficiently correlated. When PL is applied to lifetime mental health disorders (assessed in the ESEMeD project surveys), estimated univariate prevalences were, on average, 1.4 times above raw estimates, and 2.06 higher in the case of bivariate prevalences.
Many large-scale standardized tests are intended to measure skills related to ability rather than the rate at which examinees can work. Time limits imposed on these tests make it difficult to distinguish between the effect of low proficiency and the effect of lack of time. This paper proposes a mixture cure-rate model approach to address this issue. Maximum likelihood estimation is proposed for parameter and variance estimation for three cases: when examinee parameters are to be estimated given precalibrated item parameters, when item parameters are to be calibrated given known examinee parameters, and when item parameters are to be estimated without assuming known examinee parameters. Large-sample properties are established for the cases under suitable regularity conditions. Simulation studies suggest that the proposed approach is appropriate for inferences concerning model parameters. In addition, not distinguishing between the effect of low proficiency and the effect of lack of time is shown to have considerable consequences for parameter estimation. A real data example is presented to demonstrate the new model. Choice of survival models for the latent power times is also discussed.
A version of the discrete proportional hazards model is developed for psychometrical applications. In such applications, a primary covariate that influences failure times is a latent variable representing a psychological construct. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is studied as a method for performing marginal likelihood inference on the item parameters. The model is illustrated with a real data example that relates the age at which teenagers first experience various substances to the latent ability to avoid the onset of such behaviors.
Classification and Regression Trees (CART), and their successors—bagging and random forests, are statistical learning tools that are receiving increasing attention. However, due to characteristics of censored data collection, standard CART algorithms are not immediately transferable to the context of survival analysis. Questions about the occurrence and timing of events arise throughout psychological and behavioral sciences, especially in longitudinal studies. The prediction power and other key features of tree-based methods are promising in studies where an event occurrence is the outcome of interest. This article reviews existing tree algorithms designed specifically for censored responses as well as recently developed survival ensemble methods, and introduces available computer software. Through simulations and a practical example, merits and limitations of these methods are discussed. Suggestions are provided for practical use.
The analysis of insurance and annuity products issued on multiple lives requires the use of statistical models which account for lifetime dependence. This paper presents a Dirichlet process mixture-based approach that allows to model dependent lifetimes within a group, such as married couples, accounting for individual as well as group-specific covariates. The model is analyzed in a fully Bayesian setting and illustrated to jointly model the lifetime of male–female couples in a portfolio of joint and last survivor annuities of a Canadian life insurer. The inferential approach allows to account for right censoring and left truncation, which are common features of data in survival analysis. The model shows improved in-sample and out-of-sample performance compared to traditional approaches assuming independent lifetimes and offers additional insights into the determinants of the dependence between lifetimes and their impact on joint and last survivor annuity prices.
Breast cancer is a major global health issue, especially among women. Previous research has indicated a possible association between psychiatric conditions, particularly schizophrenia, and an increased risk of breast cancer. However, the specific risk of breast cancer in women with schizophrenia, compared with those with other psychiatric disorders and the general population, remains controversial and needs further clarification.
Aims
To estimate the risk of breast cancer among people with schizophrenia compared with people with other psychiatric disorders and people in the general population.
Method
We utilised medical claims data of women aged 18 to 80 years in the Korean National Health Information Database from 2007 to 2018. Individuals with schizophrenia were defined as women with ICD-10 codes F20 or F25 (n = 224 612). The control groups were defined as women with other psychiatric disorders (n = 224 612) and women in the general Korean population (n = 449 224). Cases and controls were matched by index date and age, in a 1:1:2 ratio. We estimated the hazard of breast cancer using the Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for insurance premiums and medical comorbidities. Among the people with schizophrenia, we used the landmark method to estimate the association between duration of antipsychotic medication use and the incidence of breast cancer.
Results
In multivariable Cox regression models, the hazard rate of breast cancer was 1.26 times higher in the people with schizophrenia than in the general population (95% CI: 1.20–1.32). In comparison with the psychiatric patient group, the hazard ratio was 1.17 (95% CI: 1.11–1.28). Among women with schizophrenia, the hazard of breast cancer was greater among those who took antipsychotic medications for 1 year or more compared with those who took antipsychotics for less than 6 months.
Conclusions
Women with schizophrenia have an elevated risk of breast cancer, and long-term use of antipsychotics is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer.
The serotonin 4 receptor (5-HT4R) is a promising target for the treatment of depression. Highly selective 5-HT4R agonists, such as prucalopride, have antidepressant-like and procognitive effects in preclinical models, but their clinical effects are not yet established.
Aims
To determine whether prucalopride (a 5-HT4R agonist and licensed treatment for constipation) is associated with reduced incidence of depression in individuals with no past history of mental illness, compared with anti-constipation agents with no effect on the central nervous system.
Method
Using anonymised routinely collected data from a large-scale USA electronic health records network, we conducted an emulated target trial comparing depression incidence over 1 year in individuals without prior diagnoses of major mental illness, who initiated treatment with prucalopride versus two alternative anti-constipation agents that act by different mechanisms (linaclotide and lubiprostone). Cohorts were matched for 121 covariates capturing sociodemographic factors, and historical and/or concurrent comorbidities and medications. The primary outcome was a first diagnosis of major depressive disorder (ICD-10 code F32) within 1 year of the index date. Robustness of the results to changes in model and population specification was tested. Secondary outcomes included a first diagnosis of six other neuropsychiatric disorders.
Results
Treatment with prucalopride was associated with significantly lower incidence of depression in the following year compared with linaclotide (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% CI 0.76–0.99; P = 0.038; n = 8572 in each matched cohort) and lubiprostone (hazard ratio 0.79, 95% CI 0.69–0.91; P < 0.001; n = 8281). Significantly lower risks of all mood disorders and psychosis were also observed. Results were similar across robustness analyses.
Conclusions
These findings support preclinical data and suggest a role for 5-HT4R agonists as novel agents in the prevention of major depression. These findings should stimulate randomised controlled trials to confirm if these agents can serve as a novel class of antidepressant within a clinical setting.
Generalized linear models extend classical linear models in two ways. They allow the fitting of a linear model to a dependent variable whose expected values have been transformed using a "link" function. They allow for a range of error families other than the normal. They are widely used to fit models to count data and to binomial-type data, including models with errors that may exhibit extra-binomial or extra-Poisson variation. The discussion extends to models in the generalized additive model framework, and to ordinal regression models. Survival analysis, also referred to as time-to-event analysis, is principally concerned with the time duration of a given condition, often but not necessarily sickness or death. In nonmedical contexts, it may be referred to as failure time or reliability analysis. Applications include the failure times of industrial machine components, electronic equipment, kitchen toasters, light bulbs, businesses, loan defaults, and more. There is an elegant methodology for dealing with "censoring" – where all that can be said is that the event of interest occured before or after a certain time, or in a specified interval.
While past research suggested that living arrangements are associated with suicide death, no study has examined the impact of sustained living arrangements and the change in living arrangements. Also, previous survival analysis studies only reported a single hazard ratio (HR), whereas the actual HR may change over time. We aimed to address these limitations using causal inference approaches.
Methods
Multi-point data from a general Japanese population sample were used. Participants reported their living arrangements twice within a 5-year time interval. After that, suicide death, non-suicide death and all-cause mortality were evaluated over 14 years. We used inverse probability weighted pooled logistic regression and cumulative incidence curve, evaluating the association of time-varying living arrangements with suicide death. We also studied non-suicide death and all-cause mortality to contextualize the association. Missing data for covariates were handled using random forest imputation.
Results
A total of 86,749 participants were analysed, with a mean age (standard deviation) of 51.7 (7.90) at baseline. Of these, 306 died by suicide during the 14-year follow-up. Persistently living alone was associated with an increased risk of suicide death (risk difference [RD]: 1.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.3–2.5%; risk ratio [RR]: 4.00, 95% CI: 1.83–7.41), non-suicide death (RD: 7.8%, 95% CI: 5.2–10.5%; RR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.38–1.74) and all-cause mortality (RD: 8.7%, 95% CI: 6.2–11.3%; RR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.42–1.79) at the end of the follow-up. The cumulative incidence curve showed that these associations were consistent throughout the follow-up. Across all types of mortality, the increased risk was smaller for those who started to live with someone and those who transitioned to living alone. The results remained robust in sensitivity analyses.
Conclusions
Individuals who persistently live alone have an increased risk of suicide death as well as non-suicide death and all-cause mortality, whereas this impact is weaker for those who change their living arrangements.