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We summarize what we assess as the past year's most important findings within climate change research: limits to adaptation, vulnerability hotspots, new threats coming from the climate–health nexus, climate (im)mobility and security, sustainable practices for land use and finance, losses and damages, inclusive societal climate decisions and ways to overcome structural barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
Technical summary
We synthesize 10 topics within climate research where there have been significant advances or emerging scientific consensus since January 2021. The selection of these insights was based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings concern: (1) new aspects of soft and hard limits to adaptation; (2) the emergence of regional vulnerability hotspots from climate impacts and human vulnerability; (3) new threats on the climate–health horizon – some involving plants and animals; (4) climate (im)mobility and the need for anticipatory action; (5) security and climate; (6) sustainable land management as a prerequisite to land-based solutions; (7) sustainable finance practices in the private sector and the need for political guidance; (8) the urgent planetary imperative for addressing losses and damages; (9) inclusive societal choices for climate-resilient development and (10) how to overcome barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
Social media summary
Science has evidence on barriers to mitigation and how to overcome them to avoid limits to adaptation across multiple fields.
Carbon markets – both emission trading systems and baseline and credit systems – are an increasingly common policy instrument being introduced to address climate change mitigation. However, their design is crucial to ensure that they deliver cost-effective emission reductions while maintaining environmental integrity. This Element puts together a comprehensive, principle-based overview of the risks and abuses to environmental integrity and cost effectiveness that have emerged for carbon markets at all jurisdictional levels around the world, provides concrete examples, and offers effective policy and governance solutions to overcome such risks. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Climate change mitigation calls for the limitation and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across all sectors. However, limiting GHG emissions from aviation has proven to be problematic for technical reasons (e.g., lack of low-carbon alternatives) as well as legal reasons (e.g., international aviation does not readily fall within any one state's jurisdiction). Relevant initiatives have followed two streams. At the international level, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has adopted technical standards and, more recently, a market-based mechanism to limit emissions from international civil aviation. In parallel, states have adopted their own policies and measures to regulate emissions from both domestic and international aviation, ranging from tax and technical standards to traffic management and infrastructural development. While much of the literature on climate change mitigation in the aviation sector has focused on international efforts, this article reveals the importance of understanding the tensions and complementarities of the two streams.
The Supreme Court of the Netherlands construed the state’s positive human rights obligations as requiring a 25 per cent reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This article explores how judges can decide the level of state effort required to mitigate climate change. To date, judges have predominantly approached this issue by seeking to identify an elusive benchmark, either by deduction from global objectives or induction from state conduct. This article shows that the judicial assessment of a state’s requisite efforts inevitably relies on equity infra legem. Acknowledging this, judges could learn from the international courts’ experience with establishing clarity in the midst of vague legal rules.
With its narrow focus on price-based policies and ‘explicit’ carbon prices, the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) aims to prevent carbon leakage by ensuring that imported products ‘bear’ the same exact economic costs ‘borne’ by EU products. The proposed US border carbon adjustment (BCA) and the recent proposal for a global steel and aluminium arrangement (GSAA), by contrast, reflect a broader focus on environmental equivalence and recourse to punitive or quasi-punitive remedies. All recently proposed carbon border measures suffer from specific limitations. Further, albeit to a different extent, they are all associated with problematic aspects in terms of WTO law compatibility. This research note enquires whether the GSAA could be fine-tuned at the regulatory design stage in such a way as to provide an environmentally effective and WTO law compatible way forward. The analysis illustrates that recourse to an installation-based approach, emission limit values and product standards would achieve these goals. Nonetheless, the implementation of this ambitious strategy would be fraught with political obstacles.
Based on an interdisciplinary investigation of future visions, scenarios, and case-studies of low carbon innovation taking place across economic domains, Decarbonising Economies analyses the ways in which questions of agency, power, geography and materiality shape the conditions of possibility for a low carbon future. It explores how and why the challenge of changing our economies are variously ascribed to a lack of finance, a lack of technology, a lack of policy and a lack of public engagement, and shows how the realities constraining change are more fundamentally tied to the inertia of our existing high carbon society and limited visions for what a future low carbon world might become. Through showcasing the first seeds of innovation seeking to enable transformative change, Decarbonising Economies will also chart a course for future research and policy action towards our climate goals. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Carbon taxes are likely to play a key role in meeting greenhouse gas emission targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. In this article, we assess the macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax on the global economy, paying particular attention to the terms-of-trade implications for importers and exporters of fossil fuels. We use a modified version of the National Institute’s Global Econometric Model, NiGEM. In the stylized scenarios, all countries and regions impose a permanent and uniform carbon tax immediately. Our simulations show that demand for fossil fuels falls substantially in response to the tax, global (pre-tax) prices of fossil fuels decline, and the tax can raise substantial revenue for the government. The overall impact on GDP growth and inflation in each country depends on the fossil fuel intensity of output, the net losses/gains in terms of trade and the macroeconomic policy reaction.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is an economy-wide challenge so policy to reduce emissions has to accommodate varying scope and scale to reach all sectoral processes. This chapter focuses on the complexity and challenges inherent in developing climate policy for electricity supply and for energy use in all industry and transport sectors. Policy frameworks need to take account of the context, competing social and economic objectives, global competitiveness and the expectations of industry participants and consumers. Energy policy to accommodate climate imperatives will always involve integrating policy into existing frameworks, which adds to the layers of complexity. The advantages and disadvantages of the variety of tools required to create incentives for investment, consumer behaviour change and institutional adaptation are also considered. Inevitably, policy formulation will involve hard political choices, so the chapter concludes with thoughts on managing the politics.
Protecting tropical forests from deforestation is important for mitigating both biodiversity loss and anthropogenic climate change. In Amazonia, a common approach to protected area (PA) impact studies has been to investigate differences among broad PA categories, such as strictly protected, sustainable use and indigenous areas, yet these may be insufficient for the management of PAs at local scales. We used a matching method to compare impacts and carbon emissions avoided during 2011–2016 of individual PAs in the state of Acre (Brazil). Although most PAs had a positive impact and effectively prevented forest loss, we observed substantial variation among them in terms of impacts, pressures and emissions during our study period. The impacts varied from 3.6% avoided to 15.6% induced forest loss compared to expected levels of deforestation estimated for each PA using the matching method. All but a few PAs helped avoid substantial amounts of emissions. Our results emphasize the need for more PA impact studies that compare multiple PAs at the individual level in Amazonia and beyond.
This chapter is concerned with how a claim to global authority over land and resources in the Global South has been invoked and the shape or form it has been given. It shows how the designation of both climate change and tropical deforestation as matters of ‘common concern’ has operated to authorise global authority over activities within national states that contribute to these processes. It interrogates how climate change has come to be understood in specific ways as an ‘object’ or ‘problem’ for law, and how this has given a distinctive shape to the climate regime. Finally, although forests have historically been subject to competing claims of international, national and local ownership, it shows how the focus on the capacity of forests to sequester carbon and function as carbon sinks has made it possible for the issue of deforestation, and thus also forest management, to be understood as a matter of global, rather than simply local or national, concern.
The agriculture and food sectors contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. About 15 percent of food-related carbon emissions are channeled through restaurants. Using a contingent valuation (CV) method with double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) questions, this article investigates U.S. consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for an optional restaurant surcharge in support of carbon emission reduction programs. The mean estimated WTP for a surcharge is 6.05 percent of an average restaurant check, while the median WTP is 3.64 percent. Our results show that individuals have a higher WTP when the surcharge is automatically added to restaurant checks. We also find that an information nudge—a short climate change script—significantly increases WTP. Additionally, our results demonstrate that there is heterogeneity in treatment effects across consumers’ age, environmental awareness, and economic views. Our findings suggest that a surcharge program could transfer a meaningful amount of the agricultural carbon reduction burden to consumers that farmers currently shoulder.
This paper analyses the role that companion policies have had in the reduction of emissions regulated by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the related policy interactions, with a view to identifying relevant insights for China's forthcoming Emissions Trading System (ETS). The investigation rests on: (a) the observation of the EU's and China's ETSs and policy mixes; (b) economic theory concerning companion policies and ETS design; and (c) empirical ex-post evidence from the EU ETS. Three main conclusions emerge from the analysis. First, China's ETS, while not imposing a fixed cap on emissions, will not be immune to waterbed effects of companion policies. Second, the European experience stresses the importance of making explicit the objectives pursued by companion policies, and of balancing policies for innovation and policies for adoption of low-carbon technologies. Third, in the presence of a major market surplus, only permanent adjustments to allowance supply can be effective in raising prices.
Finding the ways that work to deliver the innovation needed should be given parity of esteem with getting the prices right as a focus of the economics profession and policy systems. Learn from experience as regards carbon pricing and carbon-reducing innovation; insights from the latter coming mainly from the US, China and Europe; demographically relatively small countries – Denmark (wind) and Australia (solar PV) – can make outsize contributions. A carbon price ceiling is too low to drive innovation; generating carbon-reducing innovation requires that it be explicitly recognized as a priority, and nurtured accordingly: identify the priority area(s) where innovation at scale will be necessary to make progress; baseline the elements of the innovation ecosystem which are already in place, and the gaps that need to be filled. Key elements include institutions and incentives that promote innovation, a research and enterprise community that make it happen, and a supportive public.
Expansion of cultivated lands and field management impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture soils. Soils naturally cycle GHGs and can be sources or sinks depending on physical and chemical properties affected by cultivation and management status. We looked at how cultivation history influences GHG emissions from subtropical soils. We measured CO2, N2O, and CH4 fluxes, and soil properties from newly converted and continuously cultivated lands during the summer rainy season in calcareous soils from south Florida. Newly converted soils had more soil organic matter (OM), more moisture, higher porosity, and lower bulk density, leading to more GHG emissions compared to historically cultivated soils. Although more nutrients make newly converted lands more desirable for cultivation, conversion of new areas for agriculture was shown to release more GHGs than cultivated lands. Our data suggest that GHG emissions from agricultural soils may decrease over time with continued cultivation.
Early adopters of wind and solar power often chose these forms of electricity becasue they have few greenhouse gas emissions. This chapter suggests that a climate framing of electricity choices is threatening to incumbent fossil fuel sources of electricity as it implies that they must be curtailed to meet climate ambitions. The chapter has a theoretical focus on state capacity: in the positive sense that states must be able to plan for long-term interests like climate change and in the negative sense that states must be able to take on powerful actors for whom such action is an existential threat. This policy arena separates the two cases. South Africa has depended on coal-powered electricity provided by a powerful state-owned enterprise, Eskom, and built strong economic sectors around it. These fought hard against adopting wind and solar power; further headwinds came from the government’s corrupt preference for nuclear power. In contrast, given its hydropower, Brazilian climate politics was heated over deforestation, not electricity choices. Wind, but not solar power, was unproblematically added to annual electricity planning – a decision that defies the climate lens.
Chapter 7 takes the historical analysis into the present day and charts a significant unravelling in the coal-industrial complex. Investor uncertainty about the future viability of energy installations has shifted into a dramatic (and long-awaited) process of capital flight from coal to renewables. Perhaps most revealing, the coal sector itself has begun hedging its losses by investing in renewables. The chapter discusses the reasons for this shift. The Paris Agreement’s 2050 deadline for ‘net-zero carbon’, which, at the time of writing in 2019, was well within the investor horizon for coal-fired power plants, has imposed a growing perception of risk associated with coal facilities. It has also precipitated an unexpected realignment of low-income economies to seek new industrial strategies linked to the renewables sectors, creating a new state-renewables nexus to rival coal.
The distribution of household carbon footprints is largely unequal within and across countries. Here, we explore household-level consumption data to illustrate the distribution of carbon footprints and consumption within 26 European Union countries, regions and social groups. The analysis further sheds light on the relationships between carbon footprints and socially desirable outcomes such as income, equality, education, nutrition, sanitation, employment and adequate living conditions.
This paper examines whether green Official Development Aid (ODA) has a significant role in mitigating carbon emissions in recipient countries, and if institutional quality matters for the effectiveness of green ODA. For 86 green ODA recipient countries over the period 2003–2014, we explore the nexus between green ODA, institutions and carbon emissions. By using a two-step system generalized method of moment (GMM), we find that green ODA overall has no direct association with the mitigation of carbon emissions. However, when institutional quality indices are included, we found a significant effect of institutional quality on the effectiveness of green ODA. In general, green ODA is associated with higher carbon emissions in countries with poor institutions. In particular, green ODA is effective in mitigating carbon emissions when channeled to countries that enjoy higher economic freedom as well as more freedom from corruption. Results are mixed for the rule of law.
Climate–sincere citizens are frustrated with three decades of global and national failures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so they are receptive to arguments that they can make a difference by various means, one of which is to make an offset payment to someone else to reduce emissions while they continue to cause emissions when, for example, flying in an airplane. Unfortunately, research shows that a significant percentage of so–called offsets do not reduce emissions from what they otherwise would have been. Instead, offset payments are made to someone for doing something they would have done without the payment. Climate-concerned citizens would have greater impact if they instead made their offset payments to help elect climate–sincere politicians and to make sure that these politicians implement policies that require ezveryone to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, not just the people who buy offsets.
The climate crisis requires nations to achieve human well-being with low national levels of carbon emissions. Countries vary from one another dramatically in how effectively they convert resources into well-being, and some nations with low levels of emissions have relatively high objective and subjective well-being. We identify urgent research and policy agendas for four groups of countries with either low or high emissions and well-being indicators. Least studied are those with low well-being and high emissions. Understanding social and political barriers to switching from high-carbon to lower-carbon modes of production and consumption, and ways to overcome them, will be fundamental.