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This chapter describes three main numerical methods to model hazards which cannot be simplified by analytical expressions (as covered in Chapter 2): cellular automata, agent-based models (ABMs), and system dynamics. Both cellular automata and ABMs are algorithmic approaches while system dynamics is a case of numerical integration. Energy dissipation during the hazard process is a dynamic process, that is, a process that evolves over time. Reanalysing all perils from a dynamic perspective is not always justified, since a static footprint (as defined in Chapter 2) often offers a reasonable approximation for the purpose of damage assessment. However, for some specific perils, the dynamics of the process must be considered for their proper characterization. A variety of dynamic models is presented here, for armed conflicts, blackouts, epidemics, floods, landslides, pest infestations, social unrest, stampedes, and wildfires. Their implementation in the standard catastrophe (CAT) model pipeline is also discussed.
Alexis Wright in The Swan Book (2013), a speculative novel set in the future, speaks of the ‘Mother catastrophe of flood, fire, drought and Blizzard’, thus replacing ‘Mother Nature’ with ‘Mother catastrophe’ (unpaginated). She thereby captures the urgency of climate crisis – well past the point of climate change – so that Nature now is catastrophic in nature.
In Homegoing (2016), Yaa Gyasi shows the transformation of an African community:
Ohene Nyarko came back a week later with the new seeds. The plant was called cocoa, and he said it would change everything. He said the Akuapem people in the Eastern Region were already reaping the benefits of the new plant, selling it to the white men overseas at a rate that was reminiscent of the old trade. (147–148)
Diane Ackerman writes in her The Rarest of the Rare (1997):
[T]he last recorded Caribbean monk seal was spotted in 1952. I was four years old, growing up in a small town in Illinois, playing in the plum orchard across from my house, and learning to count. I didn't know that an animal that had survived for fourteen million years was at that moment becoming extinct, nor that I would one day lament its passing. (Unpaginated)
Wright adopts an apocalyptic tone to speak of the climate-change-driven crisis. Yaa Gyasi describes the bioinvasion by an alien plant species of the African land, which will eventually alter its texture, social fabric and economy forever. Diane Ackerman's is an elegy for the disappeared species.
These excerpts represent three modes – the apocalyptic, the social realist and the elegiac, respectively – of speaking about climate crisis and its attendant losses, dangers and anxieties to address ‘the cultural challenge of climate change’.
The ‘cultural challenge of climate change’, write David Buckland et al., is ‘to craft a different language with which to understand the science of climate change, one that is more human and palatable for public consumption’ (Buckland et al. 2017: 97). Art, Buckland et al. propose, is ‘a possible means – it has the ability to reach into peoples’ psyches, where reasoned argument can often fail’ (98). Literature – as form, practice and institution – serves the same purpose, enabling a visualization of the human as a geological force that has irrevocably altered the planet, to adapt Dipesh Chakrabarty's influential characterization (2009).
The formation mechanism for the stopping vortex ring (SVR) and its effects on the development of starting jets have been systematically investigated. The radial inward flow near the nozzle exit, arising from the pressure difference caused by the deceleration of starting jets, is considered to be the main contributing factor to the formation of the SVR. The formation process can generally be divided into (i) the rapid accumulation stage ($t_d^*\leq 1$) and (ii) the development stage ($t_d^*>1$), where $t_d^*$ is the formation time defined by the duration of the deceleration stage. For starting jets with different $(L/D)_d$, the final circulation value and circulation growth rate of the SVR can be scaled by $[(L/D)_d]^{-0.5}$ and $[(L/D)_d]^{-1.5}$, respectively. Here $(L/D)_d$ represents the stroke ratio during the deceleration stage. Analysing the temporal evolution of fluid parcels in the vicinity of the nozzle exit reveals that SVR entrains fluid from both inside and outside of the nozzle. Additionally, the influence of the SVR on the leading vortex ring and the trailing jet has been examined, with particular attention to its effects on the propulsive performance of the starting jet. The SVR affects the profiles of axial velocity and gauge pressure at the nozzle exit, thereby enhancing the generation of total thrust during the deceleration stage. Analysis has shown that depending on the deceleration rate, SVR can enhance the average velocity thrust by at least $10\,\%$ and compensate for up to a $60\,\%$ reduction in pressure thrust due to deceleration.
This book examines the proverbial tip of the (now-vanishing, climatologically speaking) iceberg, the literature of climate crisis, in terms of four discrete but interrelated themes. It employs for this purpose a considerable body of textual material, from fiction to memoirs, from the late twentieth to the early twenty-first century, weighted more towards the latter. It cites from this material extensively, often even as block quotes, in order to demonstrate rather than illustrate the textual archive and imagination of climate crisis. I have picked texts from all over the world, mainly to see overlaps and intersections, and this has, admittedly, elided historical specificities of, say, the tradition of African ecological literature or Native American texts on the theme. Admitting to a certain kind of universalization of the discourse of environmentalism, the book stays within the ambit of such a risky stance in order to speak planet rather than region or country. Thus, while the employment of texts from everywhere evidences a global concern with planetary precarity, individual cultures and bioregionalisms have different priorities and problems that need to be acknowledged – but this book does not attempt that. Also, domains such as animal trafficking, organ trade and biocapitalism that have informed the genre of ecological literature and ecocriticism as well as genres like petrofiction do not come in for any sustained attention in this book, which already grew to be more voluminous than was expected. Debates around the idea of the wilderness or ‘ecotopia’ that are current and exemplified in novels like Diane Cook's The New Wilderness (2020) or the fiction of Becky Chambers (Psalm for the Wild-Built, 2021) are also excluded. It also does not examine the pedagogic imperatives when teaching cli-fi – Stephen Siperstein, Shane Hall and Stephanie LeMenager's Teaching Climate Change in the Humanities (2017) does the job brilliantly – or debates around stewardship and care, which Rachel Carnell and Chris Mounsey's (eds.) Stewardship and the Future of the Planet: Promise and Paradox (2022) examines so effectively.
Even without breaking or wind influence, ocean surface waves are observed to produce turbulence in the water, possibly influencing ocean surface dynamics and air–sea interactions. Based on the water-side free-surface simulations, recent studies suggest that such turbulence is produced through the interaction between the waves and the near-surface Eulerian current associated with the viscous attenuation of waves. To clarify the dynamical role of the air–water interface in the turbulence production, the attenuating interfacial gravity waves were simulated directly using a newly developed two-phase wave-resolving numerical model. The air–water coupling enhanced the wave energy dissipation through the formation of a strong shear at the air-side viscous boundary layer. This led to an enhancement of the wave-to-current momentum transfer and the formation of the down-wave Eulerian mean sheared current, which is favourable for the CL2 instability responsible for the production of Langmuir circulations. As a result, the water-side turbulence grew stronger compared with the corresponding free surface (water-only) wave-resolving simulation. The evolution of the wave-averaged field was well reproduced with the Craik–Leibovich equation with the upper boundary condition provided with the virtual wave stress based on linear theory. The wave energy dissipation by air–water coupling plays a significant role in the quantitative understanding of the wave-induced turbulence at the laboratory and field scales.
We present direct numerical simulations of a three-layer Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) problem with a configuration based on the experiments of Suchandra & Ranjan (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 974, 2023, A35) and Jacobs & Dalziel (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 542, 2005, pp. 251–279). The problem consists of a layer of light fluid between two layers of heavy fluid with an Atwood number of 0.3. These simulations are first validated through comparison with available experimental data. The validated simulations are then utilized to analyse statistics in this three-component flow. First, length scales are examined utilizing spectra and two-point spatial correlations of velocity and species concentration fluctuations. Next, joint probability density functions (p.d.f.s) of species concentration are compared against several model p.d.f.s representing generalizations of the bivariate beta distribution. Notably, the joint p.d.f.s do not appear to be accurately described by a Dirichlet distribution, indicating the marginal distributions do not conform to a beta distribution. Finally, similarity of the present configuration to three-component mixing found in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) applications is exploited to develop and validate an improved model for the impact of multicomponent mixing on thermonuclear (TN) reaction rates. A single time instant from the present simulations is chosen for a TN burn calculation under the hypothetical assumption of ICF materials and temperatures. Total TN output from this second calculation is then compared against the prediction of the improved model. The new model is found to accurately predict TN reaction rates in both premixed and non-premixed configurations.
Elongated floaters drifting in propagating water waves slowly rotate towards a preferential orientation with respect to the direction of incidence. In this paper we study this phenomenon in the small floater limit $k L_x < 1$, with $k$ the wavenumber and $L_x$ the floater length. Experiments show that short and heavy floaters tend to align longitudinally, along the direction of wave propagation, whereas longer and lighter floaters align transversely, parallel to the wave crests and troughs. We show that this preferential orientation can be modelled using an inviscid Froude–Krylov model, ignoring diffraction effects. Asymptotic theory, in the double limit of a small wave slope and small floater, suggests that preferential orientation is essentially controlled by the non-dimensional number $F = k L_x^2 / \bar {h}$, with $\bar {h}$ the equilibrium submersion depth. Theory predicts the longitudinal-transverse transition for homogeneous parallelepipeds at the critical value $F_c = 60$, in fair agreement with the experiments that locate $F_c = 50 \pm 15$. Using a simplified model for a thin floater, we elucidate the physical mechanisms that control the preferential orientation. The longitudinal equilibrium for $F< F_c$ originates from a slight asymmetry between the buoyancy torque induced by the wave crests, that favours the longitudinal orientation, and that induced by the wave troughs, that favours the transverse orientation. The transverse equilibrium for $F>F_c$ arises from the variation of the submersion depth along the long axis of the floaters, which significantly increases the torque in the trough positions, when the tips are more submersed.
We report on Lagrangian statistics of turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection under very different conditions. For this, we conducted particle tracking experiments in a $H=1.1$-m-high cylinder of aspect ratio $\varGamma =1$ filled with air (Pr = 0.7), as well as in two rectangular cells of heights $H=0.02$ m ($\varGamma =16$) and $H=0.04$ m ($\varGamma =8$) filled with water (Pr = 7.0), covering Rayleigh numbers in the range $10^6\le {\textit {Ra}}\le 1.6\times 10^9$. Using the Shake-The-Box algorithm, we have tracked up to 500 000 neutrally buoyant particles over several hundred free-fall times for each set of control parameters. We find the Reynolds number to scale at small Ra (large Pr) as $ {\textit{Re}} \propto {\textit{Ra}}^{0.6}$. Further, the averaged horizontal particle displacement is found to be universal and exhibits a ballistic regime at small times and a diffusive regime at larger times, for sufficiently large $\varGamma$. The diffusive regime occurs for time lags larger than $\tau _{co}$, which is the time scale related to the decay of the velocity autocorrelation. Compensated as $\tau _{co} {\textit {Pr}}^{-0.3}$, this time scale is universal and rather independent of $ {\textit {Ra}}$ and $\varGamma$. We have also investigated the Lagrangian velocity structure function $S^2_i(\tau )$, which is dominated by viscous effects for times smaller than the Kolmogorov time $\tau _\eta$ and hence $S^2_i\propto \tau ^2$. For larger times we find a novel scaling for the different components with exponents smaller than what is expected in the inertial range of homogeneous isotropic turbulence without buoyancy. Studying particle-pair dispersion, we find a Batchelor scaling (${\propto }\,t^2$) on small time scales, diffusive scaling (${\propto }\,t$) on large time scales and Richardson-like scaling (${\propto }\,t^3$) for intermediate time scales.
In the introductory remarks to her The Book of Vanishing Species, Beatrice Forshall writes: ‘In the eighteen months it has taken me to research this book, 107 species have been declared extinct…. We are depriving ourselves of the raw material of poetry’ (2022: 13). Charlotte McConaghy opens her novel Migrations with the statement: ‘The animals are dying. Soon we will be alone here’ (2020: 3). James Bradley's Clade depicts a slow, incremental loss of species, as the earth itself implodes.
Most of the birds are gone now. She is not sure when they began to disappear: elsewhere there have been huge die-offs, great waves of birds falling from the skies, yet here the process has been more gradual, species slowly disappearing, those that remain less numerous with each passing year. (2017: 43)
Forshall mourns the passing of species, a passing that is irreversible and the species irretrievable. McConaghy suggests that when the nonhumans disappear, humanity will be left all alone. The excerpts are rooted in a history of vanishing species, which is then projected as the imminent future in the characteristic catachronism of the contemporary climate crisis novel, but with the exception that in this future, mankind is likely to disappear too, a literary theme Greg Garrard terms ‘disanthropy’ (2012).
The death of entire species, including the human, has been the subject of considerable literary interest in the era of climate crisis. Although Mary Shelley postulated an earth without humans in The Last Man (1826) and the planetary apocalypse that wipes out humanity is the subject of a novel as early as On the Beach (Nevil Shute 2010 [1957]), the concern with vanishing species has amplified. This decline narrative is everywhere: in different forms of literatur non-fictional works such as Elizabeth Kolbert's The Sixth Extinction (2014); studies of individual species vanishings such as Joel Greenberg's A Feathered River Across the Sky (2014) on the passenger pigeon; collections on vanished species such as Christopher Cokinos’ Hope Is the Thing with Feathers (2000); thought experiments like Alan Weisman's The World Without Us (2007); graphic texts like Brian Vaughan and Pia Guerra's Y: The Last Man (2002–2008); and the IUCN's Red List of endangered species arranged in a rising scale of risk and vulnerability, among others. Artwork on endangered species and extinction has also flourished as seen in Isabella Kirkland and the Extinction Art Project.