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This paper examines the recent rejection of the ‘Anthropocene’ as a formal geological epoch to explore how climate anxiety shapes scientific research. While there is broad agreement among scientists about climate change, political and legal action lag behind. Scientists bridge this gap by communicating their findings in ways that influence policy. This effort reflects the broader condition of ‘polycrisis’: multiple overlapping global challenges. I argue that terms like ‘Anthropocene’ and ‘polycrisis’ are not fixed truths, but strategies for taming uncertainty. Scientists, accordingly, are increasingly coming to replace legislators by encouraging certain kinds of present-day action towards more desirable futures.
Technical summary
This paper examines the Anthropocene Working Group's (AWG) effort to formalise a new geological epoch and interprets its 2024 rejection as a case study in the politics of polycrisis. Drawing on ethnographic research with the AWG, it shows how scientific observation is increasingly driven by anticipatory anxiety and a performative impulse to orient action towards uncertain futures. Through the concepts of the technofossil and procedural precedent, the article illustrates how geoscientific methods both generate and respond to normative expectations. The paper argues that polycrisis is not merely descriptive, but constitutes a second-order mode of engaging with the future, wherein political urgency animates what and how scientists observe. In the context of climate change, scientific actors are not only producing knowledge but also seeking to shape policy and social response by innovating within disciplinary protocols. Terms like ‘Anthropocene’ and ‘polycrisis’ are powerful abstractions whose utility lies in their imaginative capacity to narrate contingency and complexity, and imagine solutions by orienting action in the present towards desirable outcomes in the future, rather than in any fixed claim to objectivity.
Social media summary
Anxiety about the future is reshaping science, law, and the way we understand today's overlapping global crises.
Invasive non-native species proceed through the Invasion Process upon introduction to a new location, with stages comprising establishment, growth, spread, and invasive impact. High fecundity, driven by fast growth, short lifespan, and a long reproduction period, can lead to high population densities, facilitating stage progression. The Asian date mussel (Arcuatula senhousia) is a marine intertidal–subtidal species, recently established in the UK. Given its potential to impact ecosystem services in Northern Europe, understanding the Invasion Process stage it has reached is imperative for assessing potential invasiveness and informing management. Therefore, population parameters of subtidal A. senhousia in the UK were evaluated from April 2021 to March 2022 to assess invasion stage. Specimens were collected (n = 1,029) via dredging and processed for condition index, gonadosomatic index, gonad index, length-frequency distribution, and electronic length-frequency analyses. While densities were low (<1 individuals per m2), maximum lifespan was high (23 months) and growth rate was high (1.8 mm per month), relative to other populations within the species’ global range. Results confirmed June to October spawning as previously reported in the UK and France but also evidenced secondary spawning (in November) for the first time in Northern Europe. Successful recruitment from primary and secondary spawning in 2020 was also apparent. Findings indicate A. senhousia has reached the Growth stage, and that further spread within the UK and Northern Europe is likely. Climate change will likely increase larval survivorship and individual and population fecundity, facilitating progression to invasive impact, potentially within the next decade.
This study presents a modified intermediate long wave (mILW) equation derived from the Navier–Stokes equations via multi-scale analysis and perturbation expansion, aimed at describing internal solitary waves (ISWs) in finite-depth, stratified oceans. Compared to the classical ILW model, the proposed mILW equation incorporates cubic nonlinearities and captures the dynamical behaviour of large-amplitude ISWs more accurately. The equation reduces to the modified Korteweg–de Vries equation and modified Benjamin–Ono equations in the shallow- and deep-water limits, respectively, thus providing a unified framework across varying depth regimes. Soliton solutions are constructed analytically using Hirota’s bilinear method, and numerical simulations investigate wave–wave interactions, including rogue waves and Mach reflection. Furthermore, a smooth tanh-type density profile is adopted to reflect realistic stratification. Associated vertical modal structures and vertical velocity fields are analysed, and higher-order statistics (skewness and kurtosis) are introduced to reveal the density dependence of wave asymmetry. The results offer new insights into the nonlinear dynamics of ISWs, with implications for ocean mixing, energy transport and submarine acoustics.
We develop a weakly nonlinear theory to revisit the water hammer phenomenon resulting from slow valve manoeuvres. The hydraulic head at the valve is known to be nonlinearly coupled with the flow velocity via a relation derived from Bernoulli’s principle, so that solutions have been so far obtained only via numerical models. The governing equations and boundary conditions indeed yield a nonlinear boundary-value problem, which is here solved using a perturbation approach, Laplace transform and complex analysis. We obtain space- and time-dependent analytical solutions in all of the pipe and validate our results by comparison with standard numerical methods (i.e. Allievi’s method) for determining the exact behaviour of the hydraulic head at the valve. Additionally, we derive algebraic practically relevant closed form expressions for predicting the maximum and minimum hydraulic head values during both valve closure and opening manoeuvres.
Zeta potential plays a crucial role in determining the wettability and stability of clay particles in porous media, impacting their behavior when interacting with fluids. The present study aimed to address the problem of accurate estimation of zeta potential values for diverse clay particles within various brine samples using advanced machine learning techniques. Methods including decision tree, random forest, adaptive boosting, K-nearest neighbors, convolutional neural networks, and ensemble learning were employed to predict zeta potential based on input parameters such as clay type (kaolinite, chlorite, illite, and smectite), total dissolved solids, pH, and ionic strength. The leverage method was used to identify outliers within the dataset, while a sensitivity analysis quantified the influence of input factors. The training process employed k-fold cross-validation to minimize overfitting. Results revealed adaptive boosting as the most effective approach, achieving high prediction accuracy and minimal error values. Sensitivity analysis identified pH as the dominant factor reducing zeta potential magnitude, while ionic strength and total dissolved solids enhanced zeta potential. The findings contribute significantly to understanding clay–fluid interactions and provide a robust computational framework for industrial applications.
This study quantitatively investigates the two-dimensional pseudosteady shock refraction at an inclined air–water interface, referred to as the water wedge, in the weak and strong incident shock strength groups. Numerical simulations are employed to validate the predicted refraction sequences from a previous study (Anbu Serene Raj et al. 2024 J. Fluid Mech.998, A49). A distinctive irregular refraction pattern, referred to as the bound precursor refraction with a Mach reflection, is numerically validated in the weak shock group. Based on the numerical simulations, an enhanced formulation is proposed to determine the sonic line of the incident flow Mach number ($M_b$) in water, thereby providing an appropriate transition condition for an irregular refraction with a Mach reflection to a free precursor refraction with a Mach reflection transition. Furthermore, comparative studies on solid and water wedges of wedge angle $20^\circ$ reveal discernible differences in the shock reflection patterns. The interplay of the energy dissipation due to the transmitted shock wave and the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability at the air–water interface results in the variation of the triple-point trajectory and transition angles between single Mach reflection (SMR) to transitional Mach reflection (TMR) occurring in air.
The spatio-temporal evolution of very large-scale coherent structures, also known as superstructures, is investigated in both smooth- and rough-wall boundary layers by means of direct numerical simulations up to a frictional Reynolds number of ${\textit{Re}}_\tau = 3\,150$. One smooth-wall and four rough-wall cases are considered, all developing over a region as long as $\sim$60 times the incoming boundary-layer thickness in the streamwise direction. Bio-inspired, biofouling-type topographies are employed for the rough-wall cases, following the previous work of Womack et al. (2022 J. Fluid Mech. vol. 933, p. A38) and Kaminaris et al. (2023 J. Fluid Mech. vol. 961, p. A23). We utilise three-dimensional time series, as well as multiple two-point correlation functions along the boundary layer to capture the detailed length- and time-scale evolution of the superstructures. The results suggest that the presence of roughness significantly amplifies both the strength and the streamwise growth rate of superstructures. Interestingly, however, their ratios relative to the local boundary-layer thickness, $\mathscr{L}_{\!x}/\delta$ and $\mathscr{L}_z/\delta$, remain constant and independent of the streamwise coordinate, indicating that such scaled length scales might constitute a possible flow invariant. Volumetric correlations revealed that all cases induce structures inclined with respect to the mean-flow direction, with those over the rough-wall topographies exhibiting steeper inclination angles. Finally, via proper orthogonal decomposition, pairs of counter-rotating roll modes were detected and found to flank the high- and low-speed superstructures, supporting the conjecture in the literature regarding the mechanisms responsible for the lateral momentum redistribution. The latter also suggests that the way momentum organises itself in high Reynolds number wall-bounded flows might be independent of the roughness terrain underneath.
A prediction framework for the mean quantities in a compressible turbulent boundary layer (TBL) with given Reynolds number, free-stream Mach number and wall-to-recovery ratio as inputs is proposed based on the established scaling laws regarding the velocity transformations, skin-friction coefficient and temperature–velocity (TV) relations. The established velocity transformations that perform well for collapsing the compressible mean profiles onto incompressible ones in the inner layer are used for the scaling of such inner-layer components of mean velocity, while the wake velocity scaling is determined such that self-consistency is achieved under the scaling law for the skin-friction coefficient. A total of 44 compressible TBLs from six direct numerical simulations databases are used to validate the proposed framework, with free-stream Mach numbers ranging from 0.5 to 14, friction Reynolds numbers ranging from 100 to 2400, and wall-to-recovery ratios ranging from 0.15 to 1.9. When incorporated with the scaling laws for velocity transformation from Griffin et al. (2021, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci., vol. 118, e2111144118), the skin-friction coefficient from Zhao & Fu (2025, J. Fluid Mech., vol. 1012, R3) and the TV relation from Duan & Martín (2011, J. Fluid Mech., vol. 684, pp. 25–59), the prediction errors in the mean velocity and temperature profiles remain within $4.0\,\%$ and $6.0\,\%$, respectively, across all tested cases. Correspondingly, the skin-friction and wall-heat-transfer coefficients are also accurately predicted, with root mean square prediction errors of approximately $3 \,\%$. When adopting different velocity transformation methods that are valid for inner-layer scaling, the root mean square prediction errors in the mean velocity and temperature profiles remain below $2.3\,\%$ and $3.6\,\%$, respectively, which further highlights the universality of the proposed framework.
Chapter 2 sets the theoretical framework for the book, which provides tools to operationalize the regime complex mechanisms of effectiveness. The chapter operationalizes the regime complex’s mechanisms of effectiveness as the utility modifier mechanism, social learning mechanism, and capacity-building mechanism to break down the major impacts of the regime complex on barriers to renewable energy development on the ground in EMDEs. This study advances novel theorizing on regime complex effectiveness by combining approaches from private governance and regime theory to conceptualize mechanisms of impact. The theoretical framework thus provides tools to guide the examination of the interaction between regime complexes and domestic political actors, and more specifically, shows how the regime complex impacts financial, regulatory, and technical barriers to renewable energy development as analyzed in the comparative case studies in Indonesia and the Philippines (Chapters 4–6).
Chapter 1 elaborates on how the assemblage of multilateral, bilateral, transnational, and private nongovernmental actors – the clean energy regime complex – interacts with domestic politics in emerging economies and developing countries (EMDEs) to foster energy transitions. The ripple effects of international norms regarding energy transitions are visible in domestic institutional change in Indonesia and the Philippines, but both cases demonstrate variable outcomes in terms of the relative impacts of the clean energy regime complex in removing barriers to geothermal development. The chapter underlines the importance of studying the interaction between the international and domestic politics in EMDEs to understand how best to catalyze energy transitions to meet global climate mitigation goals. The chapter summarizes the case study selection, research design and methods, and theoretical arguments on regime complex effectiveness mechanisms – including utility modifier, social learning, and capacity building, and their impact in overcoming domestic political lock-in. The chapter also provides a brief overview of the book.
Identifying the causative agents of modified bone surfaces can be challenging, particularly in terrestrial systems where numerous biotic and abiotic factors can produce grooves, divots, and striae. This contribution focusses on fossil vertebrates in the Làng Tráng cave system in Vietnam, which preserves a diverse assemblage of middle Pleistocene mammals, and discusses criteria that can identify the agents responsible for the accumulation and degradation of the fossil accumulation. The Làng Tráng assemblage includes some postcranial elements and rare mandibles and skulls, but is dominated by isolated teeth and bones, particularly those of mid-sized (7–250 kg body weight) mammals. Rare long bone shafts exhibit grooves with U-shaped profiles attributable to the ichnotaxon Machichnus bohemicus. In contrast, flat-bottomed grooves attributable to M. multilineatus are exceptionally abundant. The size and shape of these traces are consistent with gnawing by moderate-sized to porcupines such as Atherurus macrourus and Hystrix kiangsenensis, both of which are represented in the Làng Tráng fauna. Porcupines are common contributors to cave faunas in Southeast Asia. The roots of most teeth exhibit moderate to severe biogenic modification, which resulted in common planar facets in some cases and reduction of the root bone to pyramidal wedges in others. The Làng Tráng cave system is unusual in that porcupines did not just contribute to the fauna; they were the dominant taphonomic factor in the accumulation and subsequent biogenic alteration/degradation of bone in these caves. Faceted and wedged roots are herein proposed as diagnostic attributes of porcupine-generated vertebrate bone accumulations.
Solid atmospheric particles, such as ice crystals, pollen, dust, ash and microplastics, strongly influence Earth’s climate, ecosystems and air quality. Previous studies have typically relied on analytical models valid only for very small particles or experiments in liquids, where the particle-to-fluid density ratio $R$ is much lower than values encountered in the atmosphere. We combine a novel experimental set-up with particle-resolved direct numerical simulations to study the settling of sub-millimetre ellipsoids in still air. Particle shapes span elongation and flatness values $ 0.2 \leqslant {\textit{EL}}, {\textit{FL}} \leqslant 1.0$ at a density ratio $ R = 1000$ and particle Reynolds numbers $ 2.1 \lt {\textit{Re}}_{\!p} \lt 4.5$, a regime well below the onset of wake-induced instabilities. Nonetheless, we observe unexpectedly rich dynamics: all non-spherical particles exhibit damped oscillatory motion, and some triaxial ellipsoids follow fully three-dimensional, non-planar trajectories due to rotation about all three axes. Simulations at lower density ratios ($ R = 10, 100$) confirm that these behaviours are driven by strong lateral forces happening only at $R=1000$. Key settling characteristics exhibit nonlinear and non-trivial dependencies on shape. In the two-dimensional phase space of elongation and flatness, settling velocity is symmetric about the principal diagonal ($ {\textit{EL}} = {\textit{FL}}$), while oscillation frequency and damping rate show symmetry about the anti-diagonal. Flatness strongly influences pressure drag, while elongation governs lateral drift and swept volume, which can reach up to ten times the particle diameter and four times the volume-equivalent sphere, respectively.
The right to roam – balancing inclusion and enclosure. In Norway, the right to roam is an old custom – a right to traverse and gather berries, herbs and firewood on uncultivated lands – dating back to the Viking Age. In 1957, this right was included in Norwegian laws, in the Outdoor Life Act (Friluftslova). The law transformed agrarian lands into areas for outdoor life and recreation, primarily walking and hiking. However, due to modernisation, the activities performed today are very different than those in the 1950s, involving many sorts of technical devices and installations, commercial activities and a different landscape. The law was a manifestation of the Norwegian outfields as a commons, but what is a commons for some can be an enclosure for others. This is the topic of this article: how the right to roam includes many and much but represents encroachment, displacements and enclosures and has created crowding, natural wear and tear and urges for management regimes. The article describes this as a balance between inclusion and enclosure. The article has two major parts: one presenting the academic discussion about inclusion and enclosure, the other discussing the implementation of the principle in Norway in light of this theory.
Magnetic susceptibility variations in loess–paleosol successions are widely utilized proxy records for reconstructions of global climate change during the Pleistocene. Analysis of the role of local factors in the establishment of magnetic signatures is rarely addressed. This study compares magnetic records along several adjacent profiles exposed in three open quarries near Kaolinovo (NE Bulgaria). The effect of the position of the sampled locations in the local landscape on the magnetic enhancement is revealed by differences in the thickness and degree of pedogenic magnetic enhancement. The profile, situated in a local paleo-depression, revealed disturbed sedimentation and depletion in the magnetic susceptibility. At lateral distances of 2–3 km (between quarries) the magnetic records show firmly repeatable patterns. Magnetic, geochemical, and diffuse reflectance data demonstrate a trend of increasing content of pedogenic hematites towards older paleosols, while goethite has major contribution to dithionite extractable iron phases. A representative stacked record of magnetic susceptibility for the Kaolinovo site is established using the results from mineralogical analyses. Comparison of the stacked susceptibility record from Kaolinovo with other sites from Bulgaria reveal that loess–paleosol sequences preserve reliable and repeatable magnetic records of global climate change for the last three glacial–interglacial cycles.
We investigate the energetics of mixing induced by a continuously supplied dense current (density $\rho _0$) propagating beneath a lighter ambient fluid (density $\rho _a$) along a horizontal rigid boundary within a rectangular domain. The flow fields are computed using direct numerical simulations (DNS) performed with the Nek5000 spectral element solver. Mixing is quantified through the temporal evolution of the background potential energy, which exhibits a linear increase over time. This linear trend enables the definition of a dimensionless mixing parameter $\gamma$, representing the rate of background potential energy growth. The value of $\gamma$ depends on the initial density contrast for a fixed volumetric discharge at the source, characterised by the dimensionless source Froude number. The results reveal a non-monotonic dependence of $\gamma$ on the source Froude number, highlighting a complex interaction between flow forcing and mixing efficiency. We find that, under the assumption of uniform mixing along the current’s length, a fraction $\gamma /2$ of the total supplied energy is invested in mixing along a horizontal distance equal to the height of the inlet.
Carbon-14 (14C) is an important contributor to the collective effective dose to the public due to releases from nuclear power plants (NPPs). In Sweden, only airborne emissions of 14C from NPPs are currently routinely monitored, and the existing data on waterborne 14C discharges are limited. A recent study of 14C in brown algae (Fucus spp.) in Swedish coastal waters showed higher F14C values collected at Ringhals NPP, on the Swedish west coast, than expected. Therefore, this study aimed at assessing if blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) could be used to retrospectively estimate the 14C concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in seawater at three sites. A method was developed to extract the fibrous layer that forms visible annual structures in the shells. All samples were analyzed with accelerator mass spectrometry and the results compared with 14C data from Fucus spp. For one of the analyzed shells (structures from 1974–1978), from the site Särdal, F14C in Fucus spp. and M. edulis agreed very well. For another shell (1972–1978), shell structures from some of the earlier years displayed up to 6% lower F14C than Fucus spp. F14C in one shell from a remote site, Båteviken, only had small annual variations (2017–2022: F14C = 1.070 ± 0.015 (1 σ)). Two shells from Ringhals NPP had higher average F14C, and a significant temporal variability (2014–2022: F14C = 1.427 ± 0.268 (1 σ)). Difficulties in unambiguous identification of the annual structures in the shells, as well as the future potential of this method, are discussed.
The present article investigates the stability of Rayleigh–Bénard convection in a composite system consisting of a horizontal fluid layer overlying a fluid-saturated Darcy porous layer subjected to a time-periodic temperature distribution. The bottom surface is heated periodically with time, whereas a Biot number-dependent thermal boundary condition represents the heat transfer at the upper surface. The Beavers–Joseph–Saffman–Jones condition describes the ‘slip’ at the interface of the domains, and the Lions interface condition governs the normal force balance, incorporating a dynamic pressure term. The Chebyshev tau method and Fourier analysis are utilised to obtain linear instability bounds, which are compared with strong global and asymptotic limits derived from the nonlinear analysis using the energy method. Four deliberately chosen configurations of superposed fluid- and porous-layer systems are investigated. Two configurations validate the analysis through the limiting cases of the classical Darcy–Bénard and Rayleigh–Bénard systems obtained by setting the fluid-to-porous depth ratio $(\hat {d})$ to zero and infinity, respectively. The other two configurations involve layers with equal depths $(\hat {d} =1)$ and a shallow fluid layer overlying a porous layer $(\hat {d} \sim 0.1)$. For these cases, modulation substantially influences the onset of convection. In the last case, the linear theory points out that modulation parameters can control the dominant convective mode (fluid/porous). Furthermore, unlike the previously reported studies, the nonlinear stability bounds are found to be significantly lower than the linear instability bounds, indicating the possibility of subcritical instabilities in the presence of modulation. The region of subcritical instabilities increases with modulation amplitude.