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In machine learning-based mortality models, interpretation methods are well established, and they can reveal structures resembling the age or time effects in traditional mortality models. However, in the reverse direction, using such traditional components to guide the initialization of a neural network remains highly challenging due to information loss during model interpretation. This study addresses this gap by exploring how components from pre-fitted traditional mortality models can be used to initialize neural networks, enabling structural information to be incorporated into a deep learning framework. We introduce Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KAN) and first construct two shallow models, KAN[2,1] and ARIMAKAN, to examine their applicability to mortality modeling. We then extend the Combined Actuarial Neural Network (CANN) into a KAN-based Actuarial Neural Network (KANN), in which classical model components calibrated via generalized nonlinear models or generalized additive models are naturally used for initialization. Three KANN variants, namely KANN[2,1], KANNLC, and KANNAPC, are proposed. In these models, neural networks assist in improving the accuracy of traditional models and help refine the original parameter estimates. All KANN-based models can also produce smooth mortality curves as well as smooth age, period, and cohort effects through simple regularization. Experiments on 34 populations demonstrate that KAN-based approaches achieve stable performance while balancing interpretability, smoothness, and predictive accuracy.
This paper presents a macroeconomic framework for carbon markets. We set up a global climate-economy with carbon-intensive energy inputs, renewable energy, natural carbon sinks, and a carbon capture technology to show that (i) within a comprehensive carbon pricing system, a carbon tax alone implements any given path of carbon emissions; (ii) ‘additionality’ is not a property of the optimal carbon pricing system; and (iii) without a carbon tax, renewable subsidies, preservation of carbon sinks and a price for carbon capture are needed.
This article considers whether Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) can develop a collective response to a globally welfare-damaging situation that impacts individual Members differentially. We conclude that collective action remains within the letter and spirit of the WTO Agreements. We set out the enabling procedures for collective action in a WTO dispute setting, in particular, the use of the rarely used situation complaint. We were motivated by the United States’ move to redraw its trade relations and break from its international trade commitments through bilateral negotiations in which it holds asymmetric leverage, buttressed by a pre-emptive announced escalation in response to any attempt by counterparties to join in forging a collective response. We conclude that, if undertaken, collective action can raise each Member’s voice into a countervailing choir and, more importantly, it can reinforce the mutual benefits derived from the multilateral trading system. Collective action thus serves a double purpose in engaging domestic concerns and the collective interests of those intending to preserve the multilateral system on which each Member depends.
Indonesia’s banking sector faces digital transformation challenges, with mobile banking growth of 52% projected for 2025, while digital literacy gaps (49.68% financial literacy) and cultural barriers threaten workforce engagement. This study investigates how Indonesian bank leaders foster meaningful work during digital transformation by examining technology factors, workforce readiness, and growth acceleration strategies within Otoritas Jasa Keuangan regulatory oversight and collectivist cultural contexts. Using qualitative methodology, in-depth interviews were conducted with 10 senior executives across 8 Indonesian banks representing government-owned, private, foreign, and digital institutions between December 2022 and February 2023. Data analysis followed the Gioia methodology, progressing from first-order concepts to theoretical themes and aggregate dimensions. The findings reveal six critical leadership practices enabling meaningful work creation: agile leadership promoting experimentation and psychological safety, tech-forward leadership integrating AI strategically, emotional intelligence managing virtual teams, recognition systems celebrating innovation, regulatory–ethical balance maintaining compliance while enabling innovation, and co-creation approaches involving customers. These practices operate across micro (individual), meso (team), and macro (organizational) levels, requiring sophisticated leadership orchestration rather than simple technology adoption. The study contributes theoretically by extending the human–individual–technology–organization–process framework for Indonesian contexts, refining meaningful work theory for digital environments, and developing an integrated leadership typology. Practically, the research provides evidence-based frameworks for banking leaders and transformation officers implementing human-centered digital transformation that preserves relationship-oriented values while enabling technological innovation within regulatory frameworks.
“Diplomacy at Work: The South African Worker, U.S. Multinationals, and Transnational Racial Solidarity” examines the history of corporate reform and anti-apartheid activism through the lens of South African labor and global worker movements. It argues that Black workers in apartheid South Africa repurposed U.S. corporate codes—especially the Sullivan Principles—as instruments of resistance. The labor movement transformed reformist rhetoric into tools for collective action and transnational worker solidarity. Drawing on oral histories, trade union archives, corporate reports, and government records in both the United States and South Africa, the dissertation reveals how workers used weak corporate reforms to pressure multinational companies, connect with U.S. labor allies, and challenge the violence of apartheid from the shop-floor. In doing so, it bridges business, labor, and diplomatic history to show that workers helped shape global debates over corporate ethics and U.S. foreign policy in the late Cold War era. Diplomacy at Work thus recasts South African labor as a central force in the transnational struggle against apartheid.
We design an experiment to study the effect of asymmetry in the context of group lending with joint liability. The performance of group loan contracts crucially hinges on borrowers engaging in peer monitoring and the common practice is to offer participants of a group loan symmetric contract terms. Our experiment shows that asymmetric contracts, in which monitoring is a dominant strategy for one borrower, increase the monitoring rate, and thus the repayment rate, without leaving borrowers substantially worse off. In addition, asymmetric contracting also raises expected profits of the lending institution. Overall, our experiment reveals that asymmetric group loan contracts are worth considering as part of a policy to maintain both financial stability and higher lender profits.
Over recent decades, we find about $80\%$ of widening residual wage inequality to be within jobs (industry-occupation pairs). To explore the underlying drivers, we incorporate into a sorting equilibrium framework with two extensive margin channels (across-job sorting and within-job selection of a performance-pay position) and an intensive margin channel (quality of skill match), in addition to residual job productivity. We show that equilibrium sorting is positively assortative both within and across jobs. By calibrating the model to the United States in 1990 and 2000, we find the improved match quality and rising performance-pay incidence amplify each other, jointly accounting for about $90\%$ of the widening within-job wage inequality. Match quality and performance pay are particularly important in jobs with rising average wages and expansionary employment. Once performance pay and match quality channels are incorporated, job sorting becomes less important and residual job productivity becomes inconsequential throughout.
This paper considers a stationary model of inventory management in a rich setting in which unsold units carry over, in contrast with the full depreciation of unsold units that is implemented in laboratory studies of the news vendor problem. The model permits an array of costs associated with restocking, understocking, depreciation, financing, and holding inventories. The extra dimensions make it possible to hold the optimal inventory constant, while adjusting parameters that change the frequency of stockouts and the risks associated with storage and depreciation. This framework facilitates an investigation of factors that influence the nature and severity of behavioral biases observed in simpler news vendor settings. Optimal inventory decisions are derived and tested with a laboratory experiment. We consider four main questions in the inventory literature: the “pull-to-center” effect, the “recency” effect, the effect of increased up-front costs, and the effect of risk aversion.
Legal provisions in trade agreements, including those related to intellectual property (IP), can impede access to medicines. The 12-party Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is currently undergoing a review. This provides an opportunity to update the CPTPP’s Intellectual Property Chapter to remove certain provisions that were negotiated in the context of its precursor, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), many of which have been suspended. These include several ‘TRIPS-Plus’ provisions – IP provisions exceeding the requirements of the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). This paper reviews the CPTPP’s TRIPS-Plus provisions, including those suspended and those still in place, and argues for their removal based on evidence of their likely effects on medicines access and recent changes in the political environment. Since the CPTPP was signed in 2018, accumulated evidence has demonstrated that TRIPS-Plus provisions negatively impact access to medicines. Lack of access to COVID-19 medical products in low- and middle-income countries has highlighted major problems with TRIPS. Furthermore, the US has diverged from a TRIPS-Plus agenda, rendering the suspended provisions obsolete. Removing the CPTPP’s TRIPS-Plus provisions, while challenging, would preserve Parties’ policy flexibility to design their laws in ways that protect access to medicines.
This Element examines clientelism and its impact on democratic institutions and markets, emphasizing that, alongside electoral competition, politics hosts two additional arenas: one where political actors seek campaign resources and active supporters, and another where socioeconomic actors pursue access to state-distributed resources. Clientelism emerges from reciprocal exchanges between these actors. Political parties use clientelism to incentivize collective action and organize campaigns. Playing this 'clientelist game', no party can reduce clientelistic practices without risking electoral defeat or internal fragmentation. Clientelism weakens the provision of public goods and skews policymaking to benefit clients over general welfare. Eventually, it generates an economic 'tragedy of the commons', as state resources are overexploited and the economy suffers, while formal institutions often fail to constrain it. Even in advanced democracies like the United States, political competition is not only electoral, targeting voters, but structurally clientelist. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Previous studies have primarily advocated enhancing the deterrent effects of sanctions against offending firms to prevent organizational environmental violations. However, despite stricter regulatory environments, violations that cross the ‘red line’ remain pervasive. Limited research has delved into the factors that influence an organization’s ability to learn from environmental sanctions imposed on others. To address this gap, inspired by social learning theory, we examine whether environmental sanctions imposed on violating firms deter environmental governance among their industry and regional peers using a sample of Chinese-listed firms from 2008 to 2021. Our findings indicate that increasing the frequency and severity of penalties for offending firms – particularly those leading firms and state-owned-enterprises or those with close ties – can affect the environmental governance practices of their peers, both in terms of process and outcome, underscoring the critical role of peer influence in enforcing environmental regulations. Additionally, the current article also concludes that the general deterrence effect on peers is more pronounced in competitive industries and regions with underdeveloped legal frameworks.
Developing Consumers: A History of Wants and Needs in Postwar South America offers a comparative social and economic history of South America’s developmental decades, from the 1950s to the mid-1970s. In the aftermath of World War II, Argentina, Brazil, and Chile implemented state-led strategies to secure economic sovereignty, raise living standards, and expand domestic markets. These policies made durable goods such as refrigerators, automobiles, and televisions increasingly available, yet access remained uneven across class, gender, and racial lines. By the 1960s, these commodities had become powerful symbols of modern well-being.
The dissertation examines how people experienced this transformation and how new forms of consumption reshaped ideas of welfare, citizenship, and inequality. By the decade’s end, it was clear that the developmental state could not deliver social mobility or universal access to modern comforts, leading to widespread frustration. Policy makers, marketing experts, and intellectuals debated how to “rationalize” consumption—deciding which needs should be guaranteed for all and which reflected elite privilege.
Non-compete clauses (NCCs) are widely used and discussed, but often too narrowly. While conventional accounts focus on the benefits of NCCs to employers, Harrison Frye has proposed that they can also serve employees by acting as a clear, costly signal. I argue that both views rely on an overly narrow analysis. A wider view shows that NCCs cause market failures, undermining their utility as protective or signalling devices. Because of these negative effects, I extend Frye’s account to argue that NCCs should be used only as targeted interventions under exceptional conditions, if they are used at all.
The Methodenstreit dominated economic discourse in the late nineteenth-century Germany. In this context, one author stood out amongst the rest: Heinrich Dietzel. Dietzel proposed a theory and method, his Sozialökonomik (social economics), as a solution for the Methodenstreit. This reformulation was based in correcting what he perceived as mistakes of classical political economy that created confusion by not explaining what they saw as self-evident. His intention was to detach from the latest developments (both in British and German political economy) as well as from what he saw as erroneous criticism that, at the time, existed in German-speaking countries. This paper presents Dietzel’s perspective on the reformulation of classical political economy, focusing on the definition of an economic science, the proper method for theoretical statements, and the theory of value.
Droughts are becoming increasingly common in India, where 50 per cent of the labour force works in agriculture, and most agricultural production is rainfall-dependent. This paper investigates the extent to which rural households adapt to drought – defined as rainfall deficiency – by reallocating labour from agriculture to other sectors of the economy. We estimate a household-level fixed-effects regression model and find that household agricultural employment declines in the year following a drought. Furthermore, these effects are mediated by job skills and land ownership. We find that households with working members who have completed primary education account for most of the workers who exit the agricultural sector. In contrast, we find that households that own land increase their agricultural labour share after experiencing a drought. Thus, while we find that drought causes households to diversify away from agriculture on aggregate, the extent of this structural change is mitigated by the behaviour of landowners.