We show that the critical probability for the frog model on a graph is not a monotonic function of the graph. This answers a question of Alves, Machado and Popov. The nonmonotonicity is unexpected as the frog model is a percolation model.

Let ξ1, ξ2,… be a Poisson point process of density λ on (0,∞)d , d ≥ 1, and let ρ, ρ1, ρ2,… be i.i.d. positive random variables independent of the point process. Let C := ⋃i≥1 {ξi + [0,ρi ]d }. If, for some t > 0, (0,∞)d ⊆ C, then we say that (0,∞)d is eventually covered by C. We show that the eventual coverage of (0,∞)d depends on the behaviour of xP(ρ > x) as x → ∞ as well as on whether d = 1 or d ≥ 2. These results may be compared to those known for complete coverage of ℝd by such Poisson Boolean models. In addition, we consider the set ⋃{i≥1:X i=1}[i,i+ρi ], where X 1, X 2,… is a {0,1}-valued Markov chain and ρ1, ρ2,… are i.i.d. positive-integer-valued random variables independent of the Markov chain. We study the eventual coverage properties of this random set.

In this paper, we study the on-line parameter estimation problem for a partially observable system subject to deterioration and random failure. The state of the system evolves according to a continuous-time homogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The state of the system is hidden except for the failure state. When the system is operating, only the information obtained by condition monitoring, which is related to the working state of the system, is available. The condition monitoring observations are assumed to be in continuous range, so that no discretization is required. A recursive maximum likelihood (RML) algorithm is proposed for the on-line parameter estimation of the model. The new RML algorithm proposed in the paper is superior to other RML algorithms in the literature in that no projection is needed and no calculation of the gradient on the surface of the constraint manifolds is required. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the algorithm.

Mi (2002) recently considered a two-dimensional optimization problem for the optimal age-replacement policy and the optimal work size. In order to find (y ∗,T ∗), Mi (2002) found the optimal age-replacement policy T ∗(y) for each fixed work size y, and then searched for the optimal work size y ∗. When applying this approach, for each fixed work size y, Mi (2002) obtained the bounds for T ∗(y). However, no bound for the optimal work size y ∗ was derived. In this note, the results on the upper bound for the optimal work size y ∗ are given.

An R-out-of-N repairable system, consisting of N independent components, is operating if at least Rcomponents are functioning. The system fails whenever the number of good components decreases from R to R-1. A failed component is sent to a repair facility. After a failed component has been repaired it is as good as new. Formulae for the availability of the system using Markov renewal and semi-regenerative processes are derived. We assume that either the repair times of the components are generally distributed and the components' lifetimes are phase-type distributed or vice versa. Some duality results between the two systems are obtained. Numerical examples are given for several distributions of lifetimes and of repair times.

In supercritical population-size-dependent branching processes with independent and identically distributed random environments, it is shown that under certain regularity conditions there exist constants 0 < α 1 ≤α 0 < + ∞ and 0 < C 1, C 2 < + ∞ such that the extinction probability starting with k individuals is bounded below by C 1k -α0 and above by C 2k -α1 for sufficiently large k. Moreover, a similar conclusion, which follows from a result of Höpfner, is presented along with some remarks.

The notion of minimal repair is generalized to the case when the lifetime distribution function is a continuous or a discrete mixture of distributions (heterogeneous population). The statistical (black box) minimal repair and the minimal repair based on information just before the failure of an object are considered. The corresponding stochastic intensities are defined and analyzed for the point processes generated by both types of minimal repair. Some generalizations are discussed. Several simple examples are considered.

The location of the ‘favourite’ point at time T (T = 1, 2,…) of a supercritical branching random walk at ℤd is investigated.

Branching processes are studied in random environments that are influenced by the population size and approach criticality as the population gets large. Results are applied to the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), which is empirically known to exhibit first exponential and then linear growth of molecule numbers.

Using a known fact that a Galton–Watson branching process can be represented as an embedded random walk, together with a result of Heyde (1964), we first derive finite exponential moment results for the total number of descendants of an individual. We use this basic and simple result to prove analogous results for the population size at time t and the total number of descendants by time t in an age-dependent branching process. This has applications in justifying the interchange of expectation and derivative operators in simulation-based derivative estimation for generalized semi-Markov processes. Next, using the result of Heyde (1964), we show that, in a stable GI/GI/1 queue, the length of a busy period and the number of customers served in a busy period have finite exponential moments if and only if the service time does.

In this paper we study a planar random motion (X(t), Y(t)), t>0, with orthogonal directions taken cyclically at Poisson paced times. The process is split into one-dimensional motions with alternating displacements interrupted by exponentially distributed stops. The distributions of X= X(t) (conditional and nonconditional) are obtained by means of order statistics and the connection with the telegrapher's process is derived and discussed. We are able to prove that the distributions involved in our analysis are solutions of a certain differential system and of the related fourth-order hyperbolic equation.

We exploit the structural properties of the BMAP/D/k system to carry out its algorithmic analysis. Specifically, we use these properties to develop algorithms for studying the distributions of waiting times in discrete time and the busy period. One of the structural properties used results from considering the system as having customers assigned in a cyclic order—which does not change the waiting-time distribution—and then studying only one arbitrary server. The busy period is defined as the busy period of an arbitrary single server based on this cyclic assignment of customers to servers. Finally, we study the marginal distribution of the joint queue length and phase of customer arrival. The structural property used for studying the queue length is based on the observation of the system every interval that is the length of one customer service time.

We analyse the performance of a material handling system consisting of two carousels and one picker. We derive expressions for the system throughput and picker utilization. We work out the throughput and picker utilization for two different pick-time distributions: deterministic, which might be a reasonable model when a robot is picking, and exponential, which might be a reasonable model when a person is picking.

The mean and the variance of the time S(t) spent by a system below a random threshold until t are obtained when the system level is modelled by the current value of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables appearing at the epochs of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. In the case of the homogeneous Poisson process, the asymptotic distribution of S(t)/t as t → ∞ is derived.

Brown and Proschan (1983) introduced the imperfect repair model, in which an item, upon failure, is replaced with a new one with probability α, and is minimally repaired with probability 1 − α. In this paper we equip the imperfect repair model with preventive maintenance, and we obtain stochastic maintenance comparisons for the numbers of failures under different policies via a point-process approach. We also obtain some results involving stochastic monotonicity properties of these models with respect to the unplanned complete repair probability α.

We study the multiserver queue with Poisson arrivals and identical independent servers with exponentially distributed service times. Customers arriving at the system are admitted or rejected according to a fixed threshold policy. Moreover, the system is subject to holding, waiting, and rejection costs. We give a closed-form expression for the average costs and the value function for this multiserver queue. The result will then be used in a single step of policy iteration in the model where a controller has to route to several finite-buffer queues with multiple servers. We numerically show that the improved policy has a close to optimal value.

The leaky bucket is a flow control mechanism that is designed to reduce the effect of the inevitable variability in the input stream into a node of a communication network. In this paper we study what happens when an input stream with heavy-tailed work sessions arrives to a server protected by such a leaky bucket. Heavy-tailed sessions produce long-range dependence in the input stream. Previous studies of single server fluid queues without flow control suggested that such long-range dependence can have a dramatic effect on the system performance. By concentrating on the expected time till overflow of a large finite buffer we show that leaky-bucket flow control does make the system overflow less often, but long-range dependence still makes its presence felt.

In this paper, an inspection–repair–replacement (IRR) model for a deteriorating system with unobservable state is studied. Assume that the system state can only be diagnosed by inspection and an inspection is imperfect. After inspection, if the system is diagnosed as being in a down state, a minimal repair will be undertaken, otherwise we do nothing. Assume further that the system lifetime is a random variable having increasing failure rate. A feasible IRR policy is studied. An algorithm is then suggested for determining an optimal feasible IRR policy for minimizing the long-run average cost per unit time after a finite-step search.

In this paper, we study the classification of matrix GI/M/1-type Markov chains with a tree structure. We show that the Perron–Frobenius eigenvalue of a Jacobian matrix provides information for classifying these Markov chains. A fixed-point approach is utilized. A queueing application is presented to show the usefulness of the classification method developed in this paper.

The average delay for the GI/G/1 queue is often approximated as a function of the first two moments of interarrival and service times. For highly irregular arrivals, however, it varies widely among queues with the same first two moments, even in moderately heavy traffic. Empirically, it decreases as the interarrival time third moment increases. For GI/M/1 queues, a heavy-traffic expression for the average delay with this property has been previously obtained. The method, however, sheds little light on why the third moment arises. We analyze the equilibrium idle-period distribution in heavy traffic using real-variable methods. For GI/M/1 queues, we derive the above heavy-traffic result and also obtain conditions under which it is either an upper or lower bound. Our approach provides an intuitive explanation for the result and also strongly suggests that similar results should hold for general service. This is supported by empirical evidence. For any given service distribution, it has been conjectured that the expected delay under pure-batcharrivals, where interarrival times are scaled Bernoulli random variables, is an upper bound on the average delay over all interarrival distributions with the same first two moments. We investigate this conjecture and show, among other things, that pure-batch arrivals have the smallest third moment. We obtain conditions under which this conjecture is true and present a counterexample where it fails. Arrivals that arise as overflows from other queues can be highly irregular. We show that interoverflow distributions in a certain class have decreasing failure rate.