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Risk-sharing rules have been applied to mortality pooling products to ensure these products are actuarially fair and self-sustaining. However, most of the existing studies on the risk-sharing rules of mortality pooling products assume deterministic mortality rates, whereas the literature on mortality models provides empirical evidence suggesting that mortality rates are stochastic and correlated between cohorts. In this paper, we extend existing risk-sharing rules and introduce a new risk-sharing rule, named the joint expectation (JE) rule, to ensure the actuarial fairness of mortality pooling products while accounting for stochastic and correlated mortality rates. Moreover, we perform a systematic study of how the choice of risk-sharing rule, the volatility and correlation of mortality rates, pool size, account balance, and age affect the distribution of mortality credits. Then, we explore a dynamic pool that accommodates heterogeneous members and allows new entrants, and we track the income payments for different members over time. Furthermore, we compare different risk-sharing rules under the scenario of a systematic shock in mortality rates. We find that the account balance affects the distribution of mortality credits for the regression rule, while it has no effect under the proportional, JE, and alive-only rules. We also find that a larger pool size increases the sensitivity to the deviation in total mortality credits for cohorts with mortality rates that are volatile and highly correlated with those of other cohorts, under the stochastic regression rule. Finally, we find that risk-sharing rules significantly influence the effect of longevity shocks on fund balances since, under different risk-sharing rules, fund balances have different sensitivities to deviations in mortality credits.
This paper examines the optimal design of peer-to-peer (P2P) insurance models, which combines outside insurance purchases with P2P risk sharing and heterogeneous risk. Participants contribute deposits to collectively cover the premium for group-based insurance against tail risks and to share uncovered losses. We analyze the cost structure by decomposing it into a fixed premium for outside coverage and a variable component for shared losses, the latter of which may be partially refunded if aggregate losses are sufficiently low. We derive closed-form solutions to the optimal sharing rule that maximizes a mean-variance objective from the perspective of a central or social planner, and we characterize its theoretical properties. Building on this foundation, we further investigate the choice of deposit for the common fund. Finally, we also provide numerical illustrations.
This paper studies a long-standing problem of risk exchange and optimal resource allocation among multiple entities in a continuous-time pure risk-exchange economy. We establish a novel risk exchange mechanism that allows entities to share and transfer risks dynamically over time. To achieve Pareto optimality, we formulate the problem as a stochastic control problem and derive explicit solutions for the optimal investment, consumption, and risk exchange strategies using a martingale method. To highlight practical applications of the solution to the proposed problem, we apply our results to a target benefit pension plan, featuring the potential benefits of risk sharing within this pension system. Numerical examples show the sensitivity of investment portfolios, the adjustment item, and allocation ratios to specific parameters. It is observed that an increase in the aggregate endowment process results in a rise in the adjustment item. Furthermore, the allocation ratios exhibit a positive correlation with the weights of the agents.
Robots need a sense of touch to handle objects effectively, and force sensors provide a straightforward way to measure touch or physical contact. However, contact force data are typically sparse and difficult to analyze, as it only appears during contact and is often affected by noise. Therefore, many researchers have consequently relied on vision-based methods for robotic manipulation. However, vision has limitations, such as occlusions that block the camera’s view, making it ineffective or insufficient for dexterous tasks involving contact. This article presents a method for robotic systems operating under quasi-static conditions to perform contact-rich manipulation using only force/torque measurements. First, the interaction forces/torques between the manipulated object and its environment are collected in advance. A potential function is then constructed from the collected force/torque data using Gaussian process regression with derivatives. Next, we develop haptic dynamic movement primitives (Haptic DMPs) to generate robot trajectories. Unlike conventional DMPs, which primarily focus on kinematic aspects, our Haptic DMPs incorporate force-based interactions by integrating the constructed potential energy. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through numerical tasks, including the classical peg-in-hole problem.
Human interactions in the online world comprise a combination of positive and negative exchanges. These diverse interactions can be captured using signed network representations, where edges take positive or negative weights to indicate the sentiment of the interaction between individuals. Signed networks offer valuable insights into online political polarization by capturing antagonistic interactions and ideological divides on social media platforms. This study analyzes polarization on Menéame, a Spanish social media platform that facilitates engagement with news stories through comments and voting. Using a dual-method approach—Signed Hamiltonian Eigenvector Embedding for Proximity for signed networks and Correspondence Analysis for unsigned networks—we investigate how including negative ties enhances the understanding of structural polarization levels across different conversation topics on the platform. While the unsigned Menéame network effectively delineates ideological communities, only by incorporating negative ties can we identify ideologically extreme users who engage in antagonistic behaviors: without them, the most extreme users remain indistinguishable from their less confrontational ideological peers.
Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) presents a massive challenge to governments worldwide in protecting against catastrophic disaster losses. This study explores the development of a Disaster Fund that optimally integrates various DRF instruments, considering several real-world factors, including limited reserves, constrained risk horizons, risk aversion, risk tolerance, insurance structures, and premium pricing strategies. We demonstrate that the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Tail VaR constraints are equivalent when the government has a limited risk horizon. Furthermore, we investigate the optimality of various insurance structures under different premium principles, conduct comparative statics on key parameters, and analyze the influence of a VaR constraint on the optimal mix of disaster financing instruments. Lastly, we apply our Disaster Fund model to the National Flood Insurance Program dataset to assess the optimal disaster financing strategy within the context of our framework.
Ponzi schemes are financial frauds that are pervasive throughout the world. Since they cause serious harm to society, it is of interest to study them so that they can be prevented. Typically, a Ponzi scheme is instigated by a promoter who promises above-average investment returns. He uses funds from the early investors to pay his later investors. These scams can occasionally last a long time, but they are ultimately unsustainable. This paper describes some well-known Ponzi schemes and identifies their common characteristics. We also review some of the approaches used to model Ponzi schemes.
Leptospirosis remains a significant occupational zoonosis in New Zealand, and emerging serovar shifts warrant a closer examination of climate-related transmission pathways. This study aimed to examine whether total monthly rainfall is associated with reported leptospirosis in humans in New Zealand. Poisson and negative binomial models were developed to examine the relationship between rainfall at 0-, 1-, 2-, and 3-month lags and the incidence of leptospirosis during the month of the report. Total monthly rainfall was positively associated with the occurrence of human leptospirosis in the following month by a factor of 1.017 (95% CI: 1.007–1.026), 1.023 at the 2-month lag (95% CI:1.013–1.032), and 1.018 at the 3-month lag (95% CI: 1.009–1.028) for every additional cm of rainfall. Variation was present in the magnitude of association for each of the individual serovars considered, suggesting different exposure pathways. Assuming that the observed associations are causal, this study supports that additional human cases are likely to occur associated with increased levels of rainfall. This provides the first evidence for including rainfall in a leptospirosis early warning system and to design targeted communication and prevention measures and provide resource allocation, particularly after heavy rainfall in New Zealand.
This study aims to estimate the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and describe its genotype distribution in MSM in Hong Kong. In this longitudinal study on Chinese MSM, multi-anatomic site self-sampling and testing for HPV, Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) were performed following survey completion at baseline and one-year follow-up. Overall, 41% (288/701) of MSM completed self-sampled HPV testing. HPV positivity was 29% (78/270) and 33% (42/127) at any anatomic site at baseline and follow-up timepoints, respectively. By anatomic site, HPV positivity was 26%-30%, 2%-4% and 0%-1% from rectal, penile, and pharyngeal specimens, respectively. The incidence of HPV infection was 21.2/100 and 18.9/100 person-years at any anatomic site and rectal site, respectively. Among 109 successfully genotyped samples, the most prevalent were HPV 6 (17%) and HPV 11 (16%), of which 60% of the genotyped samples were vaccine-preventable. Group sex engagement and less frequent condom use were positively associated with HPV infection (P<0.05). The HPV prevalence and incidence in MSM in this study is lower than in Western countries, and low-risk HPV genotypes are more prevalent. The high proportion of vaccine-preventable HPV subtypes underscores the importance of HPV vaccination in preventing infections in MSM.
The development of intelligent control-oriented solutions for building energy systems is a promising research field. The development of effective systems relies on seldom available large data sets or on simulation environments, either for training or execution phases. The creation of simulation environments based on thermal models is a challenging task, requiring the usage of third-party solutions and high levels of expertise in the energy engineering field, which poses relevant restrictions to the development of control-oriented research.
In this work, a training workbench is presented, integrating an accurate but lightweight lumped capacitance model with proven accuracy to represent the thermal dynamics of buildings, engineering models for energy systems in buildings, and user behavior models into an overall building energy performance forecasting model. It is developed in such a way that it can be easily integrated into control-oriented applications, with no requirements to use complex, third-party tools.
Bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by Candida are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Geographical variations exist in the epidemiology of candidemia, with a paucity of data in the many low- and middle-income countries. We performed a retrospective study of candidemia from 2017 to 2022 at a 289-bed teaching hospital in the Dominican Republic (DR). A total of 197 cases were reviewed. Overall mortality rate was 49.2%. Age and vasopressor use were associated with mortality. The most prevalent Candida species were C. tropicalis and C. parapsilosis. C. albicans was 12% resistance to amphotericin B. These findings underscore the importance of understanding local epidemiology and may help inform empiric therapy and the development of treatment guidelines in the DR.
Scrub typhus is a mite-borne infection, largely affecting rural populations in many parts of Asia. This cohort study explored socio-demographic, behavioural, and spatial risk factors at different levels of endemicity. 2206 rural residents from 37 villages in Tamil Nadu, South India, underwent a questionnaire survey and blood sampling at baseline and annually over 2 years to detect sero-conversion. Satellite images were used for visual land use classification. Local sero-prevalence was estimated using 5602 baseline blood samples.
Two hundred and seventy cases of seroconversions occurred during 3629 person-years (incidence rate 78/1000, 95%CI 67, 91). Older age was associated with scrub typhus in crude but not in multivariable analysis adjusting for socio-economic factors. By contrast, the increased risk in females compared to males (RR 1.4) was unaffected by adjusting for confounders. In multivariable analysis, agricultural and related outdoor activities were only weakly associated with scrub typhus. However, agricultural activities were strongly associated with scrub typhus if local sero-prevalence was low, but not if it was high. Females were at a higher risk than males in high-prevalence areas but not in low-prevalence areas. To conclude, agricultural activities were not strongly associated with scrub typhus. Transmission within human settlements may predominate in highly endemic settings.
Tree-based methods are widely used in insurance pricing due to their simple and accurate splitting rules. However, there is no guarantee that the resulting premiums avoid indirect discrimination when features recorded in the database are correlated with the protected variable under consideration. This paper shows that splitting rules in regression trees and random forests can be adapted in order to avoid indirect discrimination related to a binary protected variable like gender. The new procedure is illustrated on motor third-party liability insurance claim data.
The rise of visually driven platforms like Instagram has reshaped how information is shared and understood. This study examines the role of social, cultural, and political (SCP) symbols in Instagram posts during Taiwan’s 2024 election, focusing on their influence in anti-misinformation efforts. Using large language models (LLMs)—GPT-4 Omni and Gemini Pro Vision—we analyzed thousands of posts to extract and classify symbolic elements, comparing model performance in consistency and interpretive depth. We evaluated how SCP symbols affect user engagement, perceptions of fairness, and content spread. Engagement was measured by likes, while diffusion patterns followed the SEIZ epidemiological model. Findings show that posts featuring SCP symbols consistently received more interaction, even when follower counts were equal. Although political content creators often had larger audiences, posts with cultural symbols drove the highest engagement, were perceived as more fair and trustworthy, and spread more rapidly across networks. Our results suggest that symbolic richness influences online interactions more than audience size. By integrating semiotic analysis, LLM-based interpretation, and diffusion modeling, this study offers a novel framework for understanding how symbolic communication shapes engagement on visual platforms. These insights can guide designers, policymakers, and strategists in developing culturally resonant, symbol-aware messaging to combat misinformation and promote credible narratives.
The capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have advanced to the point where entire textbooks can be queried using retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), enabling AI to integrate external, up-to-date information into its responses. This study evaluates the ability of two OpenAI models, GPT-3.5 Turbo and GPT-4 Turbo, to create and answer exam questions based on an undergraduate textbook. 14 exams were created with four true-false, four multiple-choice, and two short-answer questions derived from an open-source Pacific Studies textbook. Model performance was evaluated with and without access to the source material using text-similarity metrics such as ROUGE-1, cosine similarity, and word embeddings. Fifty-six exam scores were analyzed, revealing that RAG-assisted models significantly outperformed those relying solely on pre-trained knowledge. GPT-4 Turbo also consistently outperformed GPT-3.5 Turbo in accuracy and coherence, especially in short-answer responses. These findings demonstrate the potential of LLMs in automating exam generation while maintaining assessment quality. However, they also underscore the need for policy frameworks that promote fairness, transparency, and accessibility. Given regulatory considerations outlined in the European Union AI Act and the NIST AI Risk Management Framework, institutions using AI in education must establish governance protocols, bias mitigation strategies, and human oversight measures. The results of this study contribute to ongoing discussions on responsibly integrating AI in education, advocating for institutional policies that support AI-assisted assessment while preserving academic integrity. The empirical results suggest not only performance benefits but also actionable governance mechanisms, such as verifiable retrieval pipelines and oversight protocols, that can guide institutional policies.