To save content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about saving content to .
To save content items to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about saving to your Kindle.
Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Nationwide screening for parvovirus B19 among blood donors in Hungary has been conducted since 2019. Although B19 is primarily transmitted via the respiratory route, transfusion-related transmission also occurs. This study investigated the impact of COVID-19–related restrictions on B19 incidence. Between January 1 2019 and December 31 2024, a total of 2,043,119 blood donations were screened for B19 DNA using PCR, and the study period was divided into six epidemiological phases.
During the pre-restriction period (Phase I), B19 incidence was relatively low (0.87/10,000 donations). Following the introduction of COVID-19 restrictions (Phase II), highly viremic donations were not detected. Incidence gradually returned in Phase III (0.22/10000) and increased in Phase IV (1.96/10000), suggesting a minor outbreak. A marked surge in December 2023 (23.03/10000) initiated a nationwide epidemic, peaking in March–April 2024 (46.01/10000), before declining by August (Phase VI; 0.54/10000).
COVID-19 restrictions substantially reduced B19 transmission and may have led to increased population susceptibility. This likely contributed to the unusually intense B19 epidemic observed in 2024, which was considerably more severe than contemporaneous outbreaks reported in other countries.
Hyderabad, the fourth-most populous city in India, accounts for the majority of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH) in Telangana, likely comprised of two populations with a disproportionately high national HIV prevalence: gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) and those who engage in sex work (SW). Research has shown that engaging in SW increases vulnerability to HIV transmission risk for both women and MSM, but less is known about contributors to non-optimal (ART) adherence. We analyzed data from 45 MSM and 49 women living with HIV who were enrolled in the first year of data collection from an mHealth education study in Hyderabad. Modified Poisson regression was used to measure factors associated with ART adherence measured with a visual analogue scale (VAS) (model 1) and pill count (model 2). Less than half (40.9%) reported ever engaging in SW, including 13 women and 25 MSM. The prevalence of non-optimal ART adherence was 14.9% with VAS and 42.4% with pill count. Engaging in SW was not associated with non-optimal ART adherence. Differences in non-optimal ART adherence measured by VAS and pill count suggest that future studies should utilize both methods to better distinguish the measures.
We aimed to describe the evolution of gonorrhea infection and its antimicrobial resistance patterns in the Prairie provinces compared to Canada between 1980 and 2022. Data was collected from publicly available sexually transmitted infection reports in Canada, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. We extracted the number and rates of gonorrhea cases; percentage of cases by sex, age, ethnicity, sexual orientation; and data on cases diagnosed by culture and antimicrobial resistance. Descriptive statistics and age–period–cohort effect analysis were used. Gonorrhea cases in Canada rose from 32.4 per 100 000 in 1992 to 92.3 in 2022. In 2020, 36.9% of gonorrhea cases in Canada were females, compared to 42.8% in Alberta, 55.3% in Saskatchewan and 56% in Manitoba. People aged ≥30 years represented 22.5% of cases in 1980, and 54.1% in 2022. By 2022, the proportion of Canadian cases detected by culture declined to less than 10%, and azithromycin resistance of N. gonorrhoeae isolates was 8.1%. Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan reported higher rates of gonorrhea compared to Canada, with a higher proportion of female cases in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Rising antimicrobial resistance rates and decreased culture testing present significant concerns for gonorrhea control and surveillance.
The normalised partial sums of values of a nonnegative multiplicative function over divisors with appropriately restricted lengths of a random permutation from the symmetric group define trajectories of a stochastic process. We prove a functional limit theorem in the Skorokhod space when the permutations are drawn uniformly at random. Furthermore, we show that the paths of the limit process almost surely belong to the space of continuous functions on the unit interval and, exploiting results from number-theoretic papers, we obtain rather complex formulas for the limits of joint power moments of the process.
This review examines the legal, voluntary, and technical mechanisms that govern the ownership of nonpersonal agricultural data generated by IoT-enabled farm machinery, sensors, and related systems. Given that this data is not subject to personal data protection legislation such as General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), its governance presents distinct challenges requiring alternative governance approaches. Drawing on 63 peer-reviewed studies published over the last decade, this review proposes an integrated conceptual framework comprising legal enforcement, voluntary governance, and technical enforcement mechanisms. A distinctive contribution of the study is to show that data ownership in agriculture becomes meaningful at the moment of data sharing, where rights claims are made visible, contested, or constrained, and that these three governance pathways must be understood jointly rather than in isolation. The analysis demonstrates that although farmers generate vast quantities of nonpersonal data, no existing legal framework explicitly grants them ownership, leaving ownership to be ambiguously allocated or de facto transferred through contracts in ways that limit their ability to contest access or downstream use. Technical mechanisms promise automated enforcement and accountability but risk codifying existing power asymmetries when the encoded rules reflect opaque or exclusionary terms. We argue for a shift from “ownership” to “data sovereignty” understood as the sustained capacity to define, monitor, and revoke conditions of data use. Achieving this requires three interlinked pillars: enforceable baseline access and use rights for farmers, accessible and preferably open-source technical infrastructure, and participatory governance arrangements.
We study quasi-stationary distributions and quasi-limiting behaviour of Markov chains in general reducible state spaces with absorption. First, we consider state spaces that can be decomposed into two successive subsets (with communication possible in a single direction), differentiating between three situations, and characterize the exponential order of magnitude and the exact polynomial correction, called the polynomial convergence parameter, for the leading-order term of the semigroup for large time. Second, we consider general Markov chains with finitely or countably many communication classes by applying the first results iteratively over the communication classes of the chain. We conclude with an application of these results to the case of denumerable state spaces, where we prove existence for a quasi-stationary distribution without assuming irreducibility before absorption, but only aperiodicity, existence of a Lyapunov function, and existence of a point with almost surely finite return time.
Governments across the world are leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to render services to citizens. Emerging economies are not left behind in this transformation but remain a gaping distance behind in their integration into public-sector service delivery compared to the private sector. To ensure the effective integration of AI services by government agencies to serve citizens, it is necessary to understand the constellation of factors driving user adoption of AI. Therefore, this study answers the question: how can government-initiated AI services be successfully accepted by citizens? Leveraging non-probability sampling, a snowball sample of 245 tertiary student-workers from across Ghana was surveyed to solicit their knowledge, attitudes, readiness, and use intentions towards AI-enabled government services. The data were analysed using FsQCA and complemented by PLS-SEM to confirm the findings. The findings reveal four unique configurations, summarised into two broad groups; AI enthusiasts and AI sceptics that drive AI adoption in government services. Positive readiness factors, such as knowledge of AI and optimism towards AI, characterise AI enthusiasts. In contrast, those described as AI sceptics still adopt government AI services despite their reservations and general distrust. AI sceptics are a delicate group that sit at the boundary between adoption and rejection, requiring special attention and strategies to orient them towards adoption. The study recommends effective education and trust-building strategies to foster AI adoption in government services. The findings are essential for driving the efficient implementation of AI-enabled services among working-class citizens in emerging economies.
We estimated the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of second monovalent and bivalent booster vaccines containing Omicron BA.1 or BA.4/BA.5 and the protection conferred by natural immunity against SARS-CoV-2 infection in Luxembourg. We conducted a test-negative case–control study among residents aged 60 years or older by integrating national socio-demographic, COVID-19 vaccination, and testing data, achieving full population coverage. Using conditional logistic regression, we estimated absolute and relative VE of monovalent and bivalent boosters and natural immunity from prior infection. Our analysis included 5,390 test-positive cases and 11,048 test-negative controls matched by week of testing between September 2022 and April 2023. Absolute VE for monovalent and bivalent boosters decreased from 64.8% and 66.6% in the first month to 1.5% and 16.5% after 5–6 months, respectively. The bivalent was superior to the monovalent booster only in individuals without natural immunity (relative VE 25.7%, 95% confidence interval 11.4%; 37.7%). Natural immunity lasted longer than vaccine-induced immunity with 80.7% protected at 4–8 months and 44.9% at 15–25 months post-infection. Both second booster vaccines provided temporary protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection; bivalent boosters offered a slight benefit over monovalent boosters. Natural immunity appears to confer longer-lasting protection.
There is a positive association between bacteraemia with Streptococcus bovis–Streptococcus equinus complex (SBSEC) and colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the relationship between the timing of SBSEC bacteraemia and CRC is not well-established. Associations with other gastrointestinal cancers have also been suggested. Using national registries, we retrospectively examined the incidence of CRC and other gastrointestinal cancers after SBSEC-bacteraemia in Sweden 2010–2019, and analysed the timing, characteristics, and prognosis of diagnosed CRC. Individuals with SBSEC-bacteraemia were matched to randomly selected controls from the general population at a 1:10 ratio. Cox-regression determined CRC hazard ratios (HR). In total, 908 individuals with SBSEC-bacteraemia were identified and 9,080 controls, of whom 75/908 (8.3%) and 168/9080 (1.9%) respectively had previously diagnosed CRC (p < 0.01). During follow-up of individuals without previous CRC, CRC was diagnosed in 45/833 (5.4%) individuals with SBSEC and 114/8912 (1.3%) controls (p < 0.01). The HR of CRC diagnosis for SBSEC was 10.3 (95% CI 6.7–15.8) overall and 19.8 (95% CI 11.1–35.3) during the first year of follow-up. In conclusion, there was an increased incidence of CRC, and most were diagnosed within the first year. Neither the tumour location, −stage, or -grade of diagnosed CRC nor the rates of other gastrointestinal cancers differed significantly.
Our study assessed the link between gastrointestinal (GI) infections in England and the Eat Out to Help Out scheme (EOHO), a government subsidy created to encourage people to eat out during COVID-19 pandemic (03–30 August 2020). We studied national laboratory data between January 2015 and December 2020. We used time series change point analysis to see if there were shifts in reported cases of specific GI infections (Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157, and non-typhoidal Salmonella spp.) associated with the timing of the scheme. Our analysis uniquely applied the Pruned Exact Linear Time method, with generalized linear models to a national dataset of GI infections. This revealed increases in cases closely aligned to the timing of the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, prior to the introduction of the EOHO scheme. Our study showed the scheme had no measurable impact, as there was no significant change on reported cases. Substantial reductions in cases after the first lockdown, followed by an increase as restrictions were phased out, show the wider impact of COVID-19 control measures, for example, public information campaigns aimed at improving hand-hygiene. These findings highlight the complicated interactions between COVID-19 control measures, the public’s behaviour, and the spread of GI infections.
Narratives shape public perceptions and policymaking around emerging technologies like quantum technologies (QTs), yet what narratives develop across different societal domains remains underexplored. This study analyzes narratives about QTs in 36 government documents, 163 business reports, and 2023 media articles published over the past 23 years, using a mixed-methods approach that combines topic modeling with qualitative thematic analysis. We find that the dystopian or utopian extremes associated with technologies such as artificial intelligence are largely absent from discourse about QTs. Media coverage tends to cover a broad range of topics, while business and government narratives emphasize technical milestones, economic competitiveness, and national security, frequently at the expense of questions about ethics, equity, and accessibility. We discuss the implications of this focus, particularly the risk that an emphasis on zero-sum geopolitical competition could foster a more closed and fragmented innovation ecosystem.
Syphilis has re-emerged as a public health threat during the 21st century, and updated knowledge of the epidemic and its drivers is needed to halt this worrying development. We present data on the incidence of syphilis in the south Swedish region Skåne from 2007 to 2022 to determine the burden of disease, changes in risk groups, as well as routes for testing. To get a picture of the burden of syphilis, both early (notifiable) syphilis and cases of non-notifiable (late) symptomatic syphilis were included in this register-based study. Mann–Kendall trend analysis (MK) was used to determine statistical significance over time. In all, 584 cases of syphilis were included in the study. The overall syphilis incidence in Skåne increased from 3.1 cases/100000 population in 2007 to 6.3 in 2022 (MK z-stat: 2.57; p = 0.010). The highest increase in absolute numbers was among men who have sex with men (MSM), from eight cases annually in 2007 to 62 in 2022, but also for heterosexually transmitted men and women, with under ten cases yearly from 2007 through 2019 to 22 cases in 2022. We also found that transmission within Sweden was common, indicating that local measures are needed to curb this epidemic.
Despite efforts by the Volta River Authority (VRA) to provide services for schistosomiasis control in communities along Ghana’s Volta Basin, high rates of transmission and re-infection persist in the region. To strengthen intervention effectiveness, the VRA partnered with the University of Health and Allied Sciences to conduct implementation research aimed at developing context-specific, evidence-based quality improvement strategies. This mixed-method study evaluates the reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation, and maintenance of the VRA’s quality improvement intervention for their mass drug administration (MDA) for schistosomiasis. Baseline and endline surveys were analysed using STATA and qualitative data from in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) were coded and analysed thematically using Taguette. Urogenital schistosomiasis prevalence decreased by 87.83% in Shai Osudoku, 88.98% in South Tongu, and 90.96% in Asuogyaman after the intervention. The findings revealed high training levels among district health management staff and community drug distributors, high health worker satisfaction with the training, and positive community reception of the intervention. However, praziquantel side effects and related opportunity costs may have posed a barrier to drug uptake. Moreover, re-infection remains a challenge, which could be attributed to high domestic and economic reliance on the Volta River.
This study assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in reducing HIV infections and HIV-related deaths among four key populations in China: men who have sex with men (MSM). Female sex workers (FSW), people who inject drugs (PWID), and HIV-negative partners of serodiscordant couples (SDC). Decision-analytic Markov models simulated HIV transmission and progression in cohorts of 100,000 adults over 40 years under three strategies: no PrEP, daily oral PrEP, and on-demand oral PrEP evaluated nationaly and high-incidence provinces. Cost-effectiveness was measured using a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$37,653 per QALY. Across all populations, on-demand PrEP was the most cost-effective strategy. Among MSM, it was cost-effective both nationwide (ICER: $4,554/QALY) and in high-incidence provinces (ICER: $1,045-2,129/QALY), reducing new infections by 24.7%. Daily PrEP was also const-effective for MSM nationally and prevented 19.9% of infections. For FSW, on-demand PrEP was cost-effective in high-incidence provinces (ICER: $25,399-37,045/QALY), reducing infections by 21.8%-22.5%. For PWID, it was cost-effective in high-incidence provinces (ICER: $10,361-29,560/QALY), reducing infections by 15.5%-17.9%. For HIV-negative partners of SDC, on-demand PrEP was cost-effective both nationally and in high-incidence provinces, reducing infections by 24.0%. Overall, on-demand PrEP offers substantial health and economic benefits, particularly for HIV-negative partners of SDC and high-incidence regions.
Hybrid stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are a useful tool for modeling continuously varying stochastic systems modulated by a random environment, which may depend on the system state itself. In this paper we establish the pathwise convergence of solutions to hybrid SDEs using space-grid discretizations. Though time-grid discretizations are a classical approach for simulation purposes, our space-grid discretization provides a link with multi-regime Markov-modulated Brownian motions. This connection allows us to explore aspects that have been largely unexplored in the hybrid SDE literature. Specifically, we exploit our convergence result to obtain efficient and computationally tractable approximations for first-passage probabilities and expected occupation times of the solutions to hybrid SDEs. Lastly, we illustrate the effectiveness of the resulting approximations through numerical examples.
In this paper we are concerned with susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) epidemics with vertex-dependent recovery and infection rates on complete graphs. We show that the hydrodynamic limit of our model is driven by a nonlinear function-valued ordinary differential equation consistent with a mean-field analysis. We further show that the fluctuation of our process is driven by a generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. A key step in the proofs of the main results is to show that states of different vertices are approximately independent as the population $N\rightarrow+\infty$.