Voters in rural and peripheral areas have increasingly turned away from mainstream parties and towards right‐wing populist parties. This paper tests the extent to which political decisions with adverse local effects—such as school and hospital closures—can explain this electoral shift. I theorize that political decisions such as these substantiate a perception of a disconnect between “ordinary” people and the politicians in power in day‐to‐day experiences. Using data on 315 school closures and 30 hospital closures in Denmark from 2005 to 2019 in a generalized difference‐in‐differences design, I find that mayors lose about 1.6 percentage points of the valid votes in areas where they close a school. Furthermore, I find that right‐wing populist parties increase their support in both local and national elections when a local school or hospital is closed. These findings provide insight into the electoral consequences of political decisions with adverse local effects and thus contribute to our understanding of the rise of right‐wing populism.

Have concerns about equal rights and equal chances crowded out economic equality as a priority of left parties? Despite the increased importance of inequality in political science, this contentiously fought debate has been standing on shaky empirical foundations. While voter's equality preferences are well understood, parties’ equality emphases remain uncharted territory. This research note assesses whether the Left has replaced its emphasis on economic equality with a focus on equal chances and equal rights. Based on a new dataset of 300,000 party statements, we use online crowd‐coding to map the equality trajectories of left parties in 12 OECD countries from 1970 to 2020. We examine if trade‐offs between economic and non‐economic aspects of inequality have come to dominate left parties’ equality profiles. Distinguishing social democratic, green and far‐left parties, we refute a meritocratic or ‘woke’ crowding out of redistribution. Yet, Social Democrats have indeed forsaken the once complementary link between economic equality and equal rights in favour of a weak trade‐off.

The huge quantitative literature on postwar social spending almost entirely neglected war as a possible explanatory factor of social spending dynamics. Given the mass carnage and the enormous social needs caused by the Second World War, this is quite astonishing. This article examines for the first time, whether, and in what ways, the Second World War affected cross‐national differences in public social spending of 18 Western welfare states over the course of the Golden Age. Using panel regressions, it is found that the war strongly affected social spending until the late 1960s. The evidence demonstrates that the Second World War is not simply a temporal watershed structuring different phases of welfare state development, but rather a crucial factor for understanding cross‐national differences in welfare efforts and social expenditure dynamics in the postwar period.

Many scholars have investigated the relationship between ideological orientations and mass participation, and there is also a growing number of studies comparing political attitudes and behaviour between electoral winners and losers. This article seeks to bring together these two strands of literature with respect to political participation, focusing on the interaction between citizens’ winner/loser status and ideological distance from their government. Analysis of data from 34 countries highlights the importance of this interactive effect: while previous works suggest that losers have a greater propensity to take part in political activities, it is shown here that this relationship holds true only when losers occupy a position along the left‐right spectrum distant from the government. Furthermore, while the hypothesised interactive effect is empirically confirmed for turnout, the magnitude of its impact is much greater for more costly modes of participation such as contacting, campaigning and protesting

The climate crisis looms but support for fuel taxation is low. How to boost support? The obvious way is to make the connection to the climate crisis explicit. Many observers fear, however, that policy myopia renders this strategy ineffective: As the consequences of the climate crisis are long‐term and insecure, people are loath to pay for costly countermeasures in the short term. We look at policy distraction as a second potential drag. We argue that climate crisis‐induced support for fuel taxation can also be undermined by other salient events which divert attention. To test our argument, we conduct a large‐scale survey experiment with more than 21,000 respondents in 17 European countries. Our results show that a simple climate crisis prime raises support for fuel taxation by 12 percentage points. The effect decreases but remains substantial when stressing the long time horizon of the climate crisis. It almost disappears when other current crises (COVID‐19 and Russian military aggression) are mentioned. Thus, distraction by concurrent events is a serious impediment to mobilising support for fuel taxation.

Bram Peper resigned as Minister of Home Affairs and Relations with the Dutch Antilles on March 13, after he had been accused of illegitimate declaration of expenses in the years 1982–1998, when he was burgomaster (mayor) of Rotterdam. Peper denied the accusations, but felt he had to resign in order to defend himself. His expenses had been investigated by a committee of the Rotterdam city council. The public prosecutor also investigated Peper’s behaviour, but decided in December that there was no reason to prosecute him.

Modern democracies are dependent on regular elections and citizens’ legitimacy beliefs. Studies have shown that repeated electoral defeats are associated with lower levels of satisfaction with democracy and political trust. However, previous studies have only considered one type of legitimacy belief at a time, never in comparison. What is more, all previous work is based on observational studies and has not been able to identify any causal effects of losing repeatedly. Building on previous work and classic theories of political legitimacy beliefs, we argue that repeatedly losing in elections represents a form of long‐term exclusion from democratic power that has additional negative effects on people's legitimacy beliefs because they lose faith in the system and start questioning its evenhandedness. We support our predictions using six‐wave panel data and test our hypothesis a total of 16 times within the same context. The findings show that repeated losers are never less satisfied with democracy but that an additional electoral loss leads to lower levels of political trust. The findings have important implications for the meaning of different indicators of legitimacy beliefs but also for electoral research and the underpinnings of stable democracies.

Accidental escapes of pathogens from laboratories continue to cause outbreaks in the community today, posing significant risks to the general public, animal communities and the environment. These incidents, as well as the uncertainties surrounding the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, highlight the need to consider unnatural origins as part of emerging outbreak surveillance and detection. Identifying recurring patterns and distinctive factors of laboratory-associated disease outbreaks can aid in successfully preventing and mitigating these occurrences. Seventy incidents of laboratory-associated leaks that led to outbreaks in the wider public have been reported (Supplementary Appendix S1). Seven renowned cases that have been comprehensively studied were selected for review: (i) 1955 Polio vaccine incident in western USA, (ii) 1977 H1N1 influenza virus re-emergence in China and the Soviet Union, (iii) 1979 Anthrax release in Sverdlovsk, Soviet Union, (iv) 1995 Venezuelan equine encephalitis epidemics in Venezuela and Colombia, (v) 2003–4 SARS-CoV-1 escapes from Singapore, Taiwan and China, (vi) 2007 Foot-and-Mouth disease virus outbreak in Pirbright, England and (vii) 2019 Brucella leak in Lanzhou, China. These outbreaks were selected because data on their geographical spread, genetics, phylogeny, epidemiological factors (including attack rates, infectious dose, time, location and season of spread) and governmental and institutional responses to the incidents had been previously analysed and published. Thematic analysis of these lines of evidence revealed seven recurring insights described in historically confirmed laboratory-associated outbreaks: unusual strain characteristics, peculiar clinical manifestations or affected demographics, unusual geographical features, atypical epidemiological patterns, delayed government action and communication to the public, misinformation and disinformation spread to the public and biosafety concerns/incidents predating the event. The outbreaks exhibited between 13 and 19 retrospectively identified indicators. These indicators were used to develop preliminary risk criteria intended to support structured, hypothesis-generating assessment of outbreaks, rather than to establish origin.

Advanced secularization in the Scandinavian countries has not resulted in the elimination of “the religious factor” from political life, rather has it led to a resurgence with the recent establishment in Sweden, Denmark and Finland of native counterparts to Norway's Christian People's Party. The article first examines the development of the characteristic religious cleavage structures of Scandinavia, from the imposed uniformity of the state churches in the early nineteenth century to the relatively open and competitive religious cultures of the twentieth century. The interrelationship between religious cleavages and political alignments is then examined and an attempt made to explain the failure of stable religious parties to emerge in the formative period of the party systems. Finally, the circumstances surrounding the later emergence of the religious parties are described and it is argued that these parties collectively constitute a new species of the genus Christian Democracy, different in kind from Fogarty's Continental and Anglo-Saxon species.

Despite the widespread secularisation of West European societies, research has only found mixed evidence of a decline in the influence of religion on people's electoral preferences. A relatively recent line of inquiry has adopted a ‘top‐down’ approach to this problem, arguing that the impact of religion not only depends on structural social changes, but also on parties’ convergence on moral issues. Drawing upon this ‘top‐down’ approach and the ‘impressionable years’ model, this article argues that parties’ political strategies aimed at (de‐)mobilising social cleavages have a lasting effect on voters’ party preferences. Using nine rounds of the European Social Survey for 19 West European countries, I find the impact of religiosity on voting for the centre‐right (Conservative and Christian Democratic parties) to be significantly smaller for voters who were exposed during emerging adulthood (aged 15–25) to a centre‐right party that adopted similar positions on moral issues to those of its main competitors. These findings have important implications because they highlight the role of generational replacement in bringing about electoral change, even when this is prompted by parties’ strategic choices.

Are personal stories more effective in shaping opinion than experts’ endorsements? This study investigates the persuasiveness of personal stories and expert endorsements in shaping public opinion on education spending and pollution reduction policies. Using a survey experiment in Spain, we found that personal stories consistently increased support for both policies, with a particularly strong effect on citizens with populist attitudes or voters of populist parties. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the success of populist parties and the influence of personal stories on public opinion.

The free movement of people is a fundamental principle of the European Union (EU) that has led to an increase in EU‐internal migration. This study investigates the impact of increased immigration to Germany resulting from the 2004 and 2007 eastern enlargement of the EU on concerns about immigration within the German population. By merging 20 years of annual migration statistics with panel data on individual attitudes and exploiting exogenous variation in the gradual enlargement of the free movement policy, we examine the causal effects of EU‐internal migration on immigration concerns. Our findings suggest that the influx of immigrants from new member states did not have a clear average effect on concerns about immigration, but increased concerns among German natives with materialist‐survival values. The study provides insights into the societal division caused by opposition to immigration as part of the European integration process.

The activity of respiratory viruses (RVs) displays large variability in tropical regions, posing challenges for public health response strategies. Data from most RVs in south-eastern Mexico remain limited, particularly in the Yucatan Peninsula, the largest tourism hub in the country. This retrospective study analyses the regional epidemiology of RVs in Merida, the largest city in the region, using laboratory test data from a local hospital (January 2018–April 2024). Test results of 143292 RVs were collected, including 121976 for SARS-CoV-2, 19355 for influenza A and B viruses, and 1961 for 17 distinct RVs. We found that non-SARS-CoV-2 RVs circulated year-round, with higher activity in autumn and spring, while SARS-CoV-2 peaked in summer and winter. Influenza A virus, respiratory syncytial virus, and influenza B virus reached their highest activity in autumn, earlier than in other regions of Mexico. Human metapneumovirus peaked during autumn-winter. Rhinovirus/enterovirus and parainfluenza showed year-round activity, with peaks in autumn and spring. Other coronaviruses were more frequent during winter-spring. In post-pandemic years (2022–2023), adenovirus outbreaks emerged, as well as an increased prevalence of non-SARS-CoV-2 RV co-infections. This study highlights the need for region-specific public health strategies, including optimized vaccination schedules, such as for influenza A virus, and enhanced diagnostic surveillance.

In many political systems legislators face a fundamental trade‐off between allocating effort to constituency service and to national policy‐making activities, respectively. How do voters want their elected representatives to solve this trade‐off? This article provides new insights into this question by developing a conjoint analysis approach to estimating voters’ preferences over their legislator's effort allocation. This approach is applied in Britain, where it is found that effort allocation has a significant effect on voter evaluations of legislators, even in a political system where other legislator attributes – in particular, party affiliation – might be expected to predominate. This effect is nonlinear, with voters generally preferring a moderate balance of constituency and national policy work. Preferences over legislator effort allocation are not well‐explained by self‐interest or more broadly by instrumental considerations. They are, however, associated with voters’ local‐cosmopolitan orientation, suggesting that heuristic reasoning based on underlying social dispositions may be more important in determining preferences over representative activities.