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The predictions of the adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change are now accepted. Somewhat less attention has been given to the economic, social, and political consequences. The three interact: the former will have social and political effects, which in turn will harm economies and economic well-being. This analysis of poor countries draws on much recent evidence and various projections. Climate damage contributes to internal political instability and conflict. There is a risk that poor countries will be driven down economically, so reducing the capacity of their governments: some will become fragile states. Internal migration is likely to become a central policy issue. However, international migration will also grow. Climate damage will drag countries into both cooperation and conflict with each other. The effects on sending countries, contiguous countries, and destination countries are examined. This scenario presented is predictive but should be taken as a warning.
It is arguable that the most important event in the world economy in recent decades has been the rise of China, from being on a par with Sub Sahara Africa at the start of economic reform to being an economic superpower today. That rise remains under-researched. Moreover, the great structural changes which accompanied economic growth require examination. The nationally representative China Household Income Project (CHIP) surveys, conducted for the years 1988, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2013, and 2018, permit a detailed examination of many important aspects of a country's economic development. Much of the analysis of this Element is closely related to, and largely caused by, China's remarkable economic growth and income distribution over the thirty years. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
The development of wearable technology, which enables motion tracking analysis for human movement outside the laboratory, can improve awareness of personal health and performance. This study used a wearable smart sock prototype to track foot–ankle kinematics during gait movement. Multivariable linear regression and two deep learning models, including long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural networks, were trained to estimate the joint angles in sagittal and frontal planes measured by an optical motion capture system. Participant-specific models were established for ten healthy subjects walking on a treadmill. The prototype was tested at various walking speeds to assess its ability to track movements for multiple speeds and generalize models for estimating joint angles in sagittal and frontal planes. LSTM outperformed other models with lower mean absolute error (MAE), lower root mean squared error, and higher R-squared values. The average MAE score was less than 1.138° and 0.939° in sagittal and frontal planes, respectively, when training models for each speed and 2.15° and 1.14° when trained and evaluated for all speeds. These results indicate wearable smart socks to generalize foot–ankle kinematics over various walking speeds with relatively low error and could consequently be used to measure gait parameters without the need for a lab-constricted motion capture system.
The first demonstration of laser action in ruby was made in 1960 by T. H. Maiman of Hughes Research Laboratories, USA. Many laboratories worldwide began the search for lasers using different materials, operating at different wavelengths. In the UK, academia, industry and the central laboratories took up the challenge from the earliest days to develop these systems for a broad range of applications. This historical review looks at the contribution the UK has made to the advancement of the technology, the development of systems and components and their exploitation over the last 60 years.
36% the over 50s in Ireland are obese based on body mass index (BMI: reflective of fat store peripherally) while 52% are ‘centrally obese’ based on waist circumference (indicative of fat located viscerally).(1) Visceral fat is thought to be a major site for inflammatory cytokine production and has been linked to other vascular risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes,(2) potentially providing a mechanism for brain atrophy.(3) The aim of the present work was to examine associations between obesity and grey matter (GM)/white matter (WM) perfusion as measured using pseudo-continuous arterial spin labelling (pCASL) MRI.
Materials and Methods
This study was embedded within the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), a nationally representative sample of > 8,000 older adults.(4) At wave three, 561 participants underwent brain MRI using a 3T scanner (Achieva, Philips, Netherlands); after exclusions, 484 participants data were included for this analysis. Cerebral blood flow (CBF [ml/100g/min]) values were calculated and their associations with BMI and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) measures modelled using multiple linear regression. We also examined 6 groups: ‘normal’, ‘overweight’, and ‘obese’ as defined by BMI, with and without central obesity, as defined by WHR.(5) Models were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, education, heart disease, hypertension, anti-hypertensive use, and depression.
Results
The mean age was 69 years (± 7.2 years); 52% were female. Higher BMI and WHR were both related to lower GM and WM CBF: BMI per 1 SD (GM: β:-1.451, 95%CI:-2.300 to -0.607, P < 0.001; WM: β:-0. 575, 95%CI:-0. 939 to -0.210, P = 0.002) and WHR (GM: β:−1.667, 95%CI:−2.856 to −0.477, P = 0.006; WM: β:−0.688, 95%CI:−1.178 to −0.197, P = 0.006). The combination of overall obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and central obesity (WHR > 0.85[female], > 0.90[male]) was associated with lower CBF (GM: β:-4.303, 95%CI:-7.015 to -1.591, P = 0.002; WM: β:-2.029, 95%CI:-3.185 to -0.873, P < 0.001) compared to subjects without central obesity (GM: β:-0.959, 95%CI:-6.490 to 4.572, P = 0.733; WM:β:-0.051, 95%CI:-2.060 to 1.958, P = 0.960).
Discussion
Our results show that central adiposity is a risk factor for impaired cerebral perfusion independent of BMI. Recent studies have shown that accumulation of fat in this area is a risk factor for cognitive impairment(6) and thus this study could partly explain the vascular origins.
This article defends the correspondence theory of truth against criticisms of three theologians: Stephen Long, Kevin Hector, and Bruce Marshall. Long's criticisms arise from his metaphysical commitments, Hector's from his anti-metaphysical commitments, and Marshall's from his methodological commitments. I treat Long and Hector briefly, before giving a more extended treatment of Bruce Marshall's attack on the correspondence theory using the slingshot argument of Donald Davidson. I argue that correspondence theories withstand their criticisms. They therefore pose no obstacle to using them in theology.
Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of directed and sustained attention on the allocation of visuospatial attention. Healthy people often have left lateral and upward vertical spatial attentional biases. However, it is not known whether there will be an increase in bias toward the attended portion of the stimulus when volitional spatial attention is allocated to a portion of a stimulus, whether there are asymmetrical spatial alterations of these biases, and how sustained attention influences these biases. Methods: We assessed spatial bias in 36 healthy, right-handed participants using a variant of horizontal and vertical line bisections. Participants were asked to focus on one or the other end of vertical or horizontal lines or entire vertical or horizontal lines, and then to bisect the line either immediately or after a 20 second delay. Results: We found a significant main effect of attentional focus and an interaction between attentional focus and prolonged viewing with delayed bisection. Focusing on a certain portion of the line resulting in a significant deviation toward the attended portion and prolonged viewing of the line prior to bisection significantly enhanced the degree of deviation toward the attended portion. Conclusions: The enhanced bias with directed and sustained attention may be useful modifications of the line bisection test, particularly in clinical populations. Thus, future studies should determine whether prolonged viewing with delayed bisection and spatially focused attention reveals attentional biases in patients with hemispheric lesions who perform normally on the traditional line bisection test. (JINS, 2019, 25, 65–71)
Highly anomalous platinum-group element (PGE) concentrations in the podiform chromitites at the Cliff and Harold's Grave localities in the Shetland ophiolite complex have been well documented previously. The focus of this study is alluvial platinum-group minerals (PGM) located in small streams that drain from the PGE-rich chromitites. The placer PGM assemblage at Cliff is dominated by Pt-arsenides (64%) and Pd-antimonides (17%), with less irarsite–hollingworthite (11%) and minor Pd-sulfides, Pt–Pd–Cu and Pt–Fe alloys and laurite. Gold also occurs with the PGM. Alluvial PGM have average sizes of 20 µm × 60 µm, with sperrylite the largest grain identified at 110 µm in diameter, matching the range reported for the primary PGM in the source rocks. The placer assemblage contains more Pt-bearing and less Pd-bearing PGM compared with the rocks. The more resistant sperrylite and irarsite–hollingworthite grains which are often euhedral become more rounded further downstream whereas the less resistant Pd-antimonides which are commonly subhedral may become striated and etched. Less stable phases such as Pt- and Pd-oxides and other Ni-Cu-bearing phases located in the rocks (i.e. Ru-pentlandite, PtCu, Pd–Cu alloy) are absent in the placer assemblage. Also the scarce PGM (PdHg, Rh- and Ir-Sb) and Os in the rocks are absent. At Harold's Grave only three alluvial PGM (laurite, Ir, Os) and Au were recovered reflecting the limited release of IPGM from chromite grains in the rocks. In this cold climate with high rainfall, where erosion dominates over weathering, the PGM appear to have been derived directly from the erosion of the adjacent PGE-rich source rocks and there is little evidence of in situ growth of any newly formed PGM. Only the presence of dendritic pure Au and Pd-, Cu-bearing Au covers on the surface of primary minerals may indicate some local reprecipitation of these metals in the surficial conditions.
One of the most notable currents in social, cultural and political historiography is the interrogation of the categories of 'elite' and 'popular' politics and their relationship to each other, as wellas the exploration of why and how different sorts of people engaged with politics and behaved politically. While such issues are timeless, they hold a special importance for a society experiencing rapid political and social change, like early modern England. No one has done more to define these agendas for early modern historians than John Walter. His work has been hugely influential, and at itsheart has been the analysis of the political agency of ordinary people. The essays in this volume engage with the central issues of Walter's work, ranging across the politics of poverty, dearth and household, popular political consciousness and practice more broadly, and religion and politics during the English revolution. This outstanding collection, bringing together some of the leading historians of this period with some of the field's rising stars, will appeal to anyone interested in the social, cultural and political history of early modern England or issues of popular political consciousness and behaviour more generally.
MICHAEL J. BRADDICK is professor of history at the University of Sheffield. PHIL WITHINGTON is professor of history at the University of Sheffield.
CONTRIBUTORS: Michael J. Braddick, J. C. Davis, Amanda Flather, Steve Hindle, Mark Knights, John Morrill, Alexandra Shepard, Paul Slack, Richard M. Smith, Clodagh Tait, Keith Thomas, Phil Withington, Andy Wood, Keith Wrightson.
In 1642, Anne Read's husband died of grief. In the same year, Sir Con Magennis died tormented by his evil deeds and ‘much … affrighted with the apprehension and conceipt that … Mr Tudge [a minister he had slain] was still in his presence’.Early modern people attributed huge consequence to ‘passions’ (they would not have used the word ‘emotion’) like grief, anger and fear. When uncontrolled, ‘passion’ started wars and ended life. Little wonder that contemporaries urged the restraint of potentially damaging feelings. However, there were times when emotions were particularly difficult to check.
John Walter's recent work on the collection of documents called the 1641 Depositions has assisted in building a new understanding of the outbreak of waves of violence in Ireland in 1641–2 and subsequently. The depositions contain testimonies from about 3,000 people, mostly British Protestant settlers, who had been dispossessed of their lands, homes and goods by Catholic rebels. Some had been confronted by crowds of local people, though as the rebellion continued, gentlemen tended to take over the leadership of these attacks. Either way, most of the deponents could identify at least some of those involved. The majority had been threatened with violence, and many bore tales of loss of property, personal injury and the torture and violent deaths of their family members, friends and neighbours. There were also accounts of incidents of desecration of sacred space and iconoclasm and of the deliberate humiliation of victims, who were routinely stripped and insulted. The depositions also contain a later set of ‘examinations’, usually conducted to probe particular crimes that had occurred in the early 1640s. The testimonies here included those of both settler and native witnesses and alleged perpetrators. It is no surprise, therefore, that Nicholas Canny should have described the depositions as ‘a body of material which is emotional’. Historians of the period often reflect on the emotional state of the Gaelic Irish and Old English participants, to paint a picture of simmering humiliation, shame, resentment, hostility, fear, hatred, anxiety and despair that led to outpourings of vengeful rage. Though economic and other grievances are pinpointed as arousing these emotions, they are regularly fathered above all on religion: Inga Jones argues that ‘religion has the capacity to arouse passions which go beyond what political and localist concerns can stimulate, a passion which … could and did spill over into unrestrained slaughter’.