Conditioning on variables affected by treatment can induce post-treatment bias when estimating causal effects. Although this suggests that researchers should measure potential moderators before administering the treatment in an experiment, doing so may also bias causal effect estimation if the covariate measurement primes respondents to react differently to the treatment. This paper formally analyzes this trade-off between post-treatment and priming biases in three experimental designs that vary when moderators are measured: pre-treatment, post-treatment, or a randomized choice between the two. We derive nonparametric bounds for interactions between the treatment and the moderator under each design and show how to use substantive assumptions to narrow these bounds. These bounds allow researchers to assess the sensitivity of their empirical findings to priming and post-treatment bias. We then apply the proposed methodology to a survey experiment on electoral messaging.

Exposure to industrial pollutants is a potential risk factor not fully explored in ASD with regression (ASD+R). We studied geographical collocation patterns of industrial air chemical emissions and the location of homes of children with ASD+R at different exposure times, compared with ASD cases without regression (ASD−R). Fifteen of 111 emitted chemicals collocated with ASD+R, and 65 with ASD−R. ASD+R collocated more strongly with different neurotoxicants/immunotoxicants a year before diagnosis, whereas ASD−R were moderately collocated with chemicals across all exposure periods. This preliminary exploratory analysis of differences in exposure patterns raises a question regarding potential pathophysiological differences between the conditions.

The Japanese Murrelet Synthliboramphus wumizusume is a rare, globally ‘Vulnerable’ seabird, endemic to Japan and South Korea. However, little is known of its at-sea distribution, habitat or threats. We conducted several years of at-sea surveys around Japan to model Japanese Murrelet density in relation to habitat parameters, and make spatial predictions to assess the adequacy of the current Japanese marine Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) network for the species. During a five-year period, 3,485 km of at-sea surveys recorded 3,161 Japanese Murrelets around four breeding locations. Maximum murrelet group size was 90 individuals with a mean group size of 2.9 ± 4.2 individuals. Models of Japanese Murrelet at-sea density around the two largest breeding locations predicted that almost all murrelets occur within 30 km of the breeding colony and most within 10 km. Murrelets were predicted closer to the colony in May than in April and closer to the colony at a neritic colony than at an offshore island colony. Additionally, murrelets breeding on an offshore island colony also commuted to mainland neritic habitat for foraging. The marine habitat used by Japanese Murrelets differed between each of the four surveyed colonies, however oceanographic variables offered little explanatory power in models. Models with colony, month and year generated four foraging radii (9–39 km wide) containing murrelet densities of > 0.5 birds/km2. Using these radii the Japanese marine IBA network was found to capture between 95% and 25% of Japanese Murrelet at-sea habitat while breeding and appears appropriately configured to protect near-colony murrelet distributions. Given the range of marine habitats that breeding murrelets inhabit, our simple models offer an applicable method for predicting to unsampled colonies and generating ecologically-informed seaward extension radii. However, data on colony populations and further at-sea surveys are necessary to refine models and improve predictions.

Discussion of the dispersal of Catholic literature in post-Reformation England tends to focus on the tenacity of recusants and ‘church papists’ in perpetuating allegiance to Rome. Relatively little attention has been paid to the extent to which Catholic texts, either in their original form or modified for a Protestant readership, formed a part of the mainstream culture of the reformed Church. This paper attempts to demonstrate the significance of Catholic literature in the Protestant context by showing the range of Protestant adaptations, the extent of Protestant readership and the influences of Catholic literature on Protestant writers.

We carried out large–scale (4 × 2 degree) CO multi–line observations toward the central molecular zone (CMZ) in the Galactic center (GC) with the NANTEN2 4m telescope and mapped several diffuse molecular features located at relatively high Galactic latitudes above 0°.6. These high–latitude features are composed of diffuse molecular halo gas and molecular filaments according to their morphological aspects. Their high velocities and high intensity ratios between 12CO J = (2−1) and J = (1−0) clearly indicate their location in the GC, and their total mass amount to ∼10% of that of the CMZ. We discuss that magnetic field is a possible mechanism of these high–latitude molecular features lifting up toward high galactic latitude.

Low birth weight was associated with cardiometabolic diseases in adult age. Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) has a crucial role in fetal growth and also associates with cardiometabolic risks in adults. Therefore, we elucidated the association between IGF-1 level and serum lipids in cord blood of preterm infants. The subjects were 41 consecutive, healthy preterm neonates (27 male, 14 female) born at <37-week gestational age, including 10 small for gestational age (SGA) infants (<10th percentile). IGF-1 levels and serum lipids were measured in cord blood, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC) and very low-density lipoprotein triglyceride (VLDLTG) levels were determined by HPLC method. SGA infants had lower IGF-1 (13.1 ± 5.3 ng/ml), total cholesterol (TC) (55.0 ± 14.8), LDLC (21.6 ± 8.3) and HDLC (26.3 ± 11.3) levels, and higher VLDLTG levels (19.0 ± 12.7 mg/dl) than in appropriate for gestational age (AGA) infants (53.6 ± 25.6, 83.4 ± 18.9, 36.6 ± 11.1, 38.5 ± 11.6, 8.1 ± 7.0, respectively). In simple regression analyses, log IGF-1 correlated positively with birth weight (r = 0.721, P < 0.001), TC (r = 0.636, P < 0.001), LDLC (r = 0.453, P = 0.006), and HDLC levels (r = 0.648, P < 0.001), and negatively with log TG (r = −0.484, P = 0.002) and log VLDL-TG (r = −0.393, P = 0.018). Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that IGF-1 was an independent predictor of TC, HDLC and TG levels after the gestational age and birth weight were taken into account. In preterm SGA infants, cord blood lipids profile altered with the concomitant decrease in IGF-1 level.

Congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection rates increase with maternal seroprevalence due to transmission from maternal non-primary infection. CMV seroprevalence estimates of pregnant women are needed for planning strategies against congenital CMV transmission. We aimed to determine the age-specific prevalence of serum antibodies for CMV in a representative age-stratified sample of unselected pregnant women from a Brazilian population. A total of 985 pregnant women, aged 12–46 years (median 24 years), were enrolled. Overall CMV seroprevalence was 97% (95% confidence interval 95·8–98·0), with age-specific (years) prevalence as follows: 12–19 (96·3%), 20–24 (97·7%), 25–29 (97·1%), and 30–46 (96·7%). CMV seroprevalence is almost universal (97%) and is found at similar levels in pregnant women of ages ranging from 12 to 46 years. Because high CMV seroprevalence is found even in women of a younger age in this population, this finding suggests that the majority of primary CMV infections occur early, in infancy or childhood. As a consequence, vaccines currently under development to prevent primary infection may not be a solution for the prevention of congenital CMV infection in this population.

Epistasis is an important feature of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits, but the dynamics of epistatic interactions in natural populations and the relationship between epistasis and pleiotropy remain poorly understood. Here, we studied the effects of epistatic modifiers that segregate in a wild-derived Drosophila melanogaster population on the mutational effects of P-element insertions in Semaphorin-5C (Sema-5c) and Calreticulin (Crc), pleiotropic genes that affect olfactory behaviour and startle behaviour and, in the case of Crc, sleep phenotypes. We introduced Canton-S B (CSB) third chromosomes with or without a P-element insertion at the Crc or Sema-5c locus in multiple wild-derived inbred lines of the Drosophila melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel (DGRP) and assessed the effects of epistasis on the olfactory response to benzaldehyde and, for Crc, also on sleep. In each case, we found substantial epistasis and significant variation in the magnitude of epistasis. The predominant direction of epistatic effects was to suppress the mutant phenotype. These observations support a previous study on startle behaviour using the same D. melanogaster chromosome substitution lines, which concluded that suppressing epistasis may buffer the effects of new mutations. However, epistatic effects are not correlated among the different phenotypes. Thus, suppressing epistasis appears to be a pervasive general feature of natural populations to protect against the effects of new mutations, but different epistatic interactions modulate different phenotypes affected by mutations at the same pleiotropic gene.

The present study assessed the effects of mild dehydration on cognitive performance and mood of young males. A total of twenty-six men (age 20·0 (sd 0·3) years) participated in three randomised, single-blind, repeated-measures trials: exercise-induced dehydration plus a diuretic (DD; 40 mg furosemide); exercise-induced dehydration plus placebo containing no diuretic (DN); exercise while maintaining euhydration plus placebo (EU; control condition). Each trial included three 40 min treadmill walks at 5·6 km/h, 5 % grade in a 27·7°C environment. A comprehensive computerised six-task cognitive test battery, the profile of mood states questionnaire and the symptom questionnaire (headache, concentration and task difficulty) were administered during each trial. Paired t tests compared the DD and DN trials resulting in >1 % body mass loss (mean 1·59 (sd 0·42) %) with the volunteer's EU trial (0·01 (sd 0·03) %). Dehydration degraded specific aspects of cognitive performance: errors increased on visual vigilance (P = 0·048) and visual working memory response latency slowed (P = 0·021). Fatigue and tension/anxiety increased due to dehydration at rest (P = 0·040 and 0·029) and fatigue during exercise (P = 0·026). Plasma osmolality increased due to dehydration (P < 0·001) but resting gastrointestinal temperature was not altered (P = 0·238). In conclusion, mild dehydration without hyperthermia in men induced adverse changes in vigilance and working memory, and increased tension/anxiety and fatigue.

We present the initial results of a spectral line survey of L1157 B1 with the Nobeyama 45 m telescope. So far, we have covered the frequencey range of 13.7 GHz (82.0–94.5 GHz and 96.3–97.5 GHz), and have detected 22 species including CH3CHO, HCOOH, HCOOCH3, HNCO, NH2CHO, CH3CN, and CCS. We have also detected the line of CH2DOH. These results demonstrate rich chemistry in this shocked region, which would mainly originate from evaporation of ice mantles by means of shocks.

We have found low-mass star-forming regions with extremely high abundances of carbon-chain molecules. Those are L1527 in Taurus and IRAS 15398-3359 in Lupus. In these sources, carbon-chain molecules would be regenerated in a lukewarm region near the protostar, triggered by the evaporation of the CH4 ice. This is new carbon-chain chemistry (Warm Carbon-Chain Chemistry: WCCC) in contrast to the conventional one applied to cold starless cores. Our interferometric observation shows a steep abundance increase of the carbon-chain molecules inward of a radius of 500 − 1000 AU from the protostar. This size corresponds to the temperature range of 20–30 K, which is close to the evaporation temperature of CH4 (25 K). This result is therefore consistent with the WCCC. The discovery of the WCCC sources demonstrates chemical diversity of low-mass star-forming regions. In particular, a remarkable contrast can be seen between the WCCC and the hot corino chemistry known in IRAS 16293-2422. A possible origin for the diversity would be the time scale of the starless-core phase; a shorter contraction time would result in the WCCC. Relatively low deuterium fractionation ratios in L1527 also support this scenario. If so, chemical compositions will tell us an important clue to understand the source-to-source variation of star-formation processes.

Epistasis is an important feature of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits. Previously, we showed that startle-induced locomotor behaviour of Drosophila melanogaster, a critical survival trait, is highly polygenic and exhibits epistasis. Here, we characterize epistatic interactions among homozygous P-element mutations affecting startle-induced locomotion in the Canton-S isogenic background and in 21 wild-derived inbred genetic backgrounds. We find pervasive epistasis for pairwise combinations of homozygous P-element insertional mutations as well as for mutations in wild-derived backgrounds. In all cases, the direction of the epistatic effects is to suppress the mutant phenotypes. The magnitude of the epistatic interactions in wild-derived backgrounds is highly correlated with the magnitude of the main effects of mutations, leading to phenotypic robustness of the startle response in the face of deleterious mutations. There is variation in the magnitude of epistasis among the wild-derived genetic backgrounds, indicating evolutionary potential for enhancing or suppressing effects of single mutations. These results provide a partial glimpse of the complex genetic network underlying the genetic architecture of startle behaviour and provide empirical support for the hypothesis that suppressing epistasis is the mechanism underlying genetic canalization of traits under strong stabilizing selection. Widespread suppressing epistasis will lead to underestimates of the main effects of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) in mapping experiments when not explicitly accounted for. In addition, suppressing epistasis could lead to underestimates of mutational variation for quantitative traits and overestimates of the strength of stabilizing selection, which has implications for maintenance of variation of complex traits by mutation–selection balance.