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Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the Baha’i religious minority in Iran has been persecuted by the Iranian government, with varying degrees of intensity. In 2011, former UNAMIR Commander Romeo Dallaire recognised their vulnerability in a speech to the Canadian Senate. ‘The similarities with what I saw in Rwanda are absolutely unquestionable’, he opined, ‘we know the genocidal intent of the Iranian state.’ This chapter will examine the plight of the Baha’i between the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and 2024. During this period, the Baha'i community has experienced ongoing and at times severe risk of genocide. Yet various factors have contributed to preventing the ongoing vulnerability from escalating. This chapter examines persecution of the Iranian Baha’i minority, and the domestic and international response. It examines the interplay of risk and resilience factors that have shaped their experience. The chapter concludes by reflecting on what can be learned about resilience from this case study of the presence of long-term risk.
Anti-Haitian sentiment is so entrenched in the Dominican Republic that it has its own name: antihaitianismo. The long history of discrimination and persecution of Haitians and Dominicans of Haitian descent includes a massacre in 1937, which claimed around 18,000 lives. While such large-scale violence has not been repeated, Haitians and Haitian–Dominicans have experienced ongoing discrimination and human rights violations. Since the 1990s, there have been repeated mass deportations into Haiti, and in the 2010s, over 100,000 Haitian–Dominicans were stripped of their citizenship, rendering them stateless. By the early 2000s, many recognised the presence of risk factors for genocide in the Dominican Republic. Yet despite the risk, such violence did not occur. Moreover, since then multiple risk assessment models have documented decreasing risk. This chapter explores this constructive trajectory. It considers the risk factors and the factors that have promoted resilience over the period in question. Understanding how and why the violence of 1937 has not been repeated, and the gradual amelioration of risk in the Dominican Republic, can help us identify key factors that promote resilience to genocide.
When Germany occupied Denmark in April 1940, Danish opposition to the persecution of its Jewish minority was clear from the outset. As the occupation progressed, many individuals and groups vied for influence on this issue, including the King, the church, public figures, German officials in Denmark and the Danish Nazi party. The uneasy cooperation between Denmark and Germany held until August 1943, before collapsing in acrimony. The Nazis then sought to take advantage of the crisis to deport the Jews. The Danish people, however, mounted an extraordinary resistance to thwart their plans. The chapter examines the daring rescue of the Jews and the creation of a safe passage to Sweden. It also explores the fate of those who were captured and deported to Theresienstadt; and those children who stayed behind in hiding in Denmark. The next section of the chapter seeks to understand these exceptional experiences. It considers what made the rescue of Danish Jewry possible, and what were the leading factors that contributed to this outcome. Finally, the chapter concludes by considering how this case study can contribute to our understanding of what promotes resilience to genocide.
By early September in 1999, many feared genocide in East Timor was imminent. Following a UN-sanctioned referendum, in which the East Timorese people voted in favour of independence rather than autonomy within Indonesia, violence had exploded in the province. Militias, intimately linked with the Indonesian armed forces, were perpetrating massacres, destroying infrastructure and forcibly displacing tens of thousands of East Timorese. Jailed independence leader Xanana Gusmao warned: ‘We foresee chaos. We foresee … genocide in East Timor’, a view shared by many experts on the region. Yet these dire predictions did not come to pass. Australia declared its willingness to lead an international peacekeeping force and, under overwhelming international pressure, Indonesia acquiesced to the intervention. Within days of UN-authorisation, the first troops of INTERFET arrived in Dili, and the risk of genocide very quickly abated. This chapter examines the factors that led up to this crucial intervention and enabled a timely and robust international response to the crisis. It concludes by considering how lessons from this example can inform an evidence-based approach to genocide prevention.
There is no doubt that the Bulgarian Jewish population was at extreme risk of genocide during the Holocaust. At one stage, the cattle cars were literally waiting at the station to begin deportations. Bulgaria, a Nazi ally, introduced discriminatory laws targeting its 48,000 or so Jewish citizens, who experienced escalating persecution. Jews in Bulgarian-occupied Thrace and Macedonia were denied Bulgarian citizenship and deported to the death camps in early 1943. At the same time, the Bulgarian government approved a secret plan to commence deporting Bulgarian Jewry. Yet through an extraordinary series of events, political and public opposition forced the planned deportations to be repeatedly postponed, and ultimately abandoned. In this way, almost the entirety of the Bulgarian Jewish population survived the Holocaust. This chapter examines the key factors that led to their survival. It considers the role of the government, politicians, the church and ordinary Bulgarian citizens in contributing to this outcome. The chapter concludes by reflecting on the insights for genocide prevention that can be gleaned from this case study.
There is a strong need for evidence-based approaches to inform the growing field of genocide prevention. The chapter introduces conceptual and methodological advances to aid research in this area. It highlights the value of a ‘Risk and Resilience Framework’, which gives equal credence to the role of risk factors and factors promoting resilience, in understanding vulnerability to genocide. The chapter then introduces the six case studies that make up the bulk of the book – case studies in which a demonstrable risk of genocide was not realised in the period under study. Following this, it presents the key findings of the volume. These comprise eleven cross-situational factors that have contributed to promoting resilience to genocide in the past, and therefore have proven potential to do so in the future. The functioning and influence of each factor is described, followed by a brief analysis of its efficacy as identified in the case studies. The introduction concludes with a section exploring how these factors can be operationalised to stabilise and reduce vulnerability to genocide in current at-risk societies.
There is a long history of persecution of the Yazidi minority in Iraq. Following the rise of ISIS in the early 2010s, however, their status as non-Muslims rendered them particularly vulnerable. According to ISIS’ interpretation of Islamic law, Yazidis were infidels. Men who refused to convert were to be killed, and women enslaved. Therefore, when ISIS launched a surprise attack on Sinjar, a region heavily populated by Yazidis, all those who could immediately fled. Tens of thousands of Yazidis became stranded and besieged on Mt Sinjar, in extremely hazardous conditions. At imminent risk of genocide, they desperately sought assistance. Within days, a multifaceted international response enabled the vast majority of them to survive and escape. A key focus of the chapter is the nature of that response. It considers what led to the provision of emergency humanitarian aid, to the US military strikes that prevented further ISIS attack, and to the opening of a route to safety. Through careful examination of these critical events, it identifies the factors that mitigated genocide. The chapter concludes by reflecting on what lessons can be learned from this case study of resilience.
The conclusion presents a powerful call to action. It considers the contribution of the volume to advancing knowledge of evidence-based approaches to genocide prevention. It discusses measurable actions that can be taken to contribute to genocide prevention, by a range of stakeholders. Through collective and concerted effort, we can all contribute to making ‘never again’ a reality.
This study aimed to assess knowledge, lifestyle behaviours, and sociodemographic associations regarding hypertension control among adults in urban Ghana.
Background:
Hypertension is a major contributor to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in Ghana. However, data on population-level knowledge of its risk factors and related lifestyle behaviours in urban settings remain limited.
Methods:
A cross-sectional analytical survey was conducted between August 2023 and September 2024 across four urban regions. Using stratified convenience sampling, 7096 adults aged 18–67+ years were recruited. Data on sociodemographic, lifestyle behaviours, and hypertension knowledge were collected via a structured questionnaire.
Findings:
Participants had a mean age of 37.27 (±8.73) years, with a majority being female (63.85%) and married (97.66%). Educational attainment varied. Females constituted most hypertensive cases, particularly for stage 2 hypertension, while males had a notably higher prevalence of pre-hypertension among those aged 27–53 years. Age and body mass index showed significant positive correlations with systolic and diastolic blood pressure (p < 0.01). Men were significantly more likely to smoke and consume alcohol (p < 0.01). Logistic regression indicated that regular exercise reduced the odds of hypertension diagnosis (OR = 0.72, CI: 0.54–0.96), while older age increased the odds. The study underscores the need for targeted public health strategies. Priorities include promoting physical activity and weight management, alongside smoking/alcohol cessation programs tailored for high-risk men. Early intervention for younger adults with pre-hypertension and enhanced educational outreach for less-educated groups are crucial.
It is a promising time for genocide prevention. Increasing amounts of research, and resources, have led to significant advances over the past two decades. Yet we still lack vital knowledge as to the most effective ways to stabilise and reduce the risk of genocide in current at-risk societies. This volume offers a compelling new approach: to understand how to prevent genocide, we need to examine societies in which genocide has been prevented. It is in these societies – in which a demonstrably high risk of genocide was present, but in which genocide did not occur – that we can potentially find key factors that promote resilience to genocide. The volume explores six such case studies, spanning three continents and seven decades. Through careful analysis it identifies eleven factors that have contributed to preventing genocide in multiple cases, and which have the potential to inform current approaches to prevention. Collectively, these offer a new, evidence-based approach to preventing genocide.
Prevention of child maltreatment – incorporating physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and exposure to domestic violence – is a clearly defined global policy priority. Global Burden of Disease studies have focused on estimating burden attributable to childhood sexual abuse omitting other forms of child maltreatment. This study aims to estimate burden attributable to child maltreatment using data from the first comprehensive national study, the Australian Child Maltreatment Study (ACMS), accounting for the co-occurrence of multiple forms, the complex impact of multi-type maltreatment and the contribution of interrelated factors.
Methods
We estimated burden attributable to child maltreatment by age and gender for Australia in 2021. Risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for sufficient evidence for a causal relationship were included. Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on data from the ACMS incorporating increased risk with multi-type maltreatment and adjustment for confounding. Levels of exposure in each of the 32 mutually exclusive combinations or patterns of child maltreatment were estimated based on ACMS data by age and gender. The theoretical minimum risk exposure level was determined as no exposure to child maltreatment in the population and population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated. Attributable mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated by multiplying PAFs by the relevant burden of disease estimates by age and gender for Australia in 2021. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the results. Uncertainty was propagated into attributable burden estimates using Monte Carlo simulation methods.
Results
Overall, child maltreatment accounted for 6.6% (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 6.2–6.9%) of all DALYs for women and 6.4% (95% UI, 6.0–6.7%) of all DALYs for men in Australia in 2021. An estimated 71.2% of self-harm, 57.1% of anxiety disorders and 49.3% of major depressive disorder (MDD) DALYs in women, and 63.8% of self-harm, 55.9% of anxiety disorders and 42.9% of MDD DALYs in men were attributable to child maltreatment.
Conclusions
Child maltreatment contributes to a substantial proportion of burden of disease in Australia, equivalent to leading lifestyle-related risk factors such as high body mass index, high blood pressure and smoking. This research significantly advances knowledge of the disease burden attributable to child maltreatment and provides novel methodology for measuring the impact of all five forms of child maltreatment combined on mental health and health risk behaviours nationally and globally.
Edited by
Liz McDonald, East London NHS Foundation Trust,Roch Cantwell, Perinatal Mental Health Service and West of Scotland Mother & Baby Unit,Ian Jones, Cardiff University
Eating disorders can have a profound impact on women during the pre-conception, antenatal and postnatal periods, and this has implications for their care and treatment. This chapter describes the rate, course and risk factors for eating disorders within the context of the perinatal period. It covers what is known from current research and clinical evidence about the effect of the most common eating disorders on pre-conception health, pregnancy and birth outcomes. Drawing on existing clinical guidance and research evidence, it provides an overview of the guidance and recommendations for the assessment, management and treatment of eating disorders from pre-conception through to the postnatal period.
The triglyceride–glucose (TyG) index, a surrogate marker for insulin resistance, has been associated with depressive symptoms, but findings are inconsistent and predominantly based on cross-sectional studies. This study investigated whether the TyG index is associated with incident depression independent of genetic predisposition and explored potential risk factors underlying this association.
Methods
A total of 335,586 UK Biobank participants without baseline depression were included. Incident depression cases were extracted by linking electronic health records. Polygenic risk scores quantified genetic predisposition. Cox proportional hazards models examined the associations. We further evaluated the contribution of socioeconomic status (education, employment, and Townsend Deprivation Index), lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and sleep duration), biological indicators (body mass index and total cholesterol), and health conditions (hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease). No preregistered protocol was used.
Results
During a mean follow-up of 13.1 years, 14,096 (4.2%) individuals developed depression. Compared with the lowest TyG quartile (Q1), the fully adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for Q2, Q3, and Q4 were 1.051 (1.000–1.104), 1.078 (1.025–1.134), and 1.144 (1.086–1.206), respectively (P for trend <0.001). Per standard deviation increment in the TyG index was associated with a 5.9% (3.9%–7.8%) higher risk of depression. Individuals with both high TyG levels and high genetic predisposition had the highest risk, although no significant interaction was observed. All adjusted risk factors appeared to attenuate 63.9% of the association.
Conclusions
A higher TyG index was associated with increased risk of incident depression, independent of genetic predisposition.
In the US, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death and disability. Cost-related medication non-adherence (CRMN) can have serious consequences and worsen CVD outcomes. We examined the relationship between CVD risk factors and CRMN among US adults.
Methods:
CDC’s 2019–2021 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data were used to examine CRMN among adults, categorized into three groups based on reported risk factors. We used chi-square tests, and logistic regression to determine factors associated with CRMN.
Results:
Among 49,464 participants, young, unmarried individuals, females, less educated, and participants from the South had higher CRMN than older, married individuals, males, and those with higher education residing in the other regions. Current smokers and those with more CVD risk factors also reported higher CRMN than former and never-smokers. Conversely, those aged 65 or older, with high-income, and excellent self-rated health had lower CRMN than younger participants, low-income families, and those with poor self-rated health. Public insurance and Medicaid participants had lower CRMN than uninsured (OR 0.13, 95% CI, 0.04–0.45, and OR 0.24, 95% CI, 0.15–0.36). Stratified analysis by diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia, revealed participants with high-income had lower odds of CRMN (OR 0.38, 95% CI, 0.28–0.50; OR 0.39, 95% CI, 0.28–0.58; OR 0.37, 95% CI, 0.27–0.51 respectively) than those with lower- incomes.
Conclusion:
Adults under 65 with more CVD risk factors and lacking insurance coverage are at higher risk of CRMN. Therefore, strengthening prescription drug coverage and targeted interventions are necessary to reduce CRMN among those with cardiovascular risk factors.
Suicide is a leading cause of death among emerging adults (EAs) worldwide, yet suicide literacy (SL) in this population remains understudied, particularly in Puerto Rico (PR). This study assessed SL among EAs enrolled at a medical school in PR and explored its association with knowing someone who had experienced suicidal ideation (SI) or attempted suicide (SA). A cross-sectional study was conducted with 102 participants aged 21–28 years. Participants completed a sociodemographic questionnaire and the Literacy of Suicide Scale (LOSS). The mean LOSS score was 19.25 out of 27 (71.3%), with a domain-specific pattern characterized by relatively higher performance in the treatment/prevention and lower performance in the recognition of signs and symptoms. Regression analysis revealed that knowing someone with lived experience of SI/SA was associated with higher SL scores, while gender was not significantly associated. These findings suggest that, although medical students may have general knowledge about suicide prevention, they may struggle to identify early warning signs. This study contributes to the emergent literature on SL among EAs globally and highlights the need for further research on SL domain-specific strengths and weaknesses.
Fasciola hepatica infections in cattle often lead to significant production losses. Infection rates are expected to increase due to environmental changes at regional and global level which favour the life cycle of F. hepatica. This study aimed to identify environmental and herd factors associated with F. hepatica antibody positivity in bulk tank milk (BTM) of Dutch dairy cattle herds. In total, 10403 BTM samples were collected yearly in October, from 2018 till 2023. For each farm, monthly averages of weather factors and soil moisture level were obtained for the twelve months preceding October, along with soil type and number and grazing of dairy cows. Logistic regression analyses were performed retrospectively using generalized estimating equations, with continuous variables analysed as quartiles. The odds of F. hepatica antibody positivity in BTM are higher for farms on peat (OR 1.69, 95% CI [1.27, 2.24]) and heavy clay soils (OR 1.75, 95% CI [1.30, 2.35]) compared to those on sand soil. In addition, the odds of antibody positivity increased with higher monthly temperatures (December: ORQ1-Q4 2.94, 95% CI [1.94, 4.46]) and rainfall (November: ORQ1-Q4 2.33, 95% CI [1.62, 3.34]) at the end of the previous grazing season. Stratified analyses by soil type yielded results consistent with those across soil types. Weather patterns that favour the number of overwintering snails infected with F. hepatica seem to increase the infection risk for dairy cattle in the next grazing season, which highlights the potential of prediction tools that facilitate early detection of new F. hepatica infections.
Domestic cats are the only felines living exclusively with humans, making them ecologically invasive and widespread across terrestrial habitats. Their domestication stems from their rodent control abilities and companionship. However, they are susceptible to gastrointestinal parasites such as Ancylostoma spp., Toxocara cati, and Dipylidium caninum, causing issues like anaemia, vomiting, and sometimes death, especially in kittens. These parasites can also pose zoonotic risks, transmitting diseases like visceral and ocular larva migrants to humans. A total of 100 cats with no deworming history were examined over six months. The overall prevalence of intestinal helminths was 23.0%, with Ancylostoma spp. being the most common (11.0%), followed by Toxocara cati (7.0%), Taenia spp. (2.0%), and mixed infections (3.0%). The prevalence was higher in females (26.92%) than in males (18.75%). Age-wise, kittens under 6 months had the highest infection rate (36.17%), while cats aged 6–12 months showed the lowest (10.71%). Non-descriptive breeds exhibited a higher infection rate (34.88%) than descriptive breeds (14.03%). Most cats were kept in confined spaces (72.0%), with 57.0% being descriptive breeds. Cats were mostly fed a mix of cooked and commercial cat food (59.0%), while only 33.0% were vaccinated and 20.0% dewormed. Behavioural issues like licking (51.0%) and self-biting (13.0%) were noted. Only 41.0% of owners were aware of zoonotic disease risks from cats. Chi-square analysis revealed significant associations between infection rates and risk factors (variables) such as breed, age, diet, vaccination, and deworming status. Non-descriptive breeds, unvaccinated cats, and those fed vegetarian diets had significantly higher infection rates (p < 0.05). Unconfined housing also contributed to increased infection risk, though not statistically significant. The research was significant because it highlighted the public health risks, as many cat owners and pet lovers were unaware of the zoonotic potential of intestinal helminths in cats.
Secondary intracranial infections are common and severe complications in patients with viral encephalitis, contributing to higher mortality, prolonged hospitalization and increased healthcare burden. Evidence on risk factors, pathogen spectrum and resistance patterns remains limited, and predictive models tailored to this population are lacking.
Methods:
We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort study, including 160 consecutive patients diagnosed with viral encephalitis. Clinical, therapeutic, laboratory and microbiological data were extracted from hospital records. Independent risk factors were identified using multivariate logistic and Cox regression. Predictive performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Pathogen distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles were analyzed descriptively.
Results:
During a median follow-up of 16 days, 50 patients (31.3%) developed secondary intracranial infections, corresponding to an incidence of 2.9 events per 1000 patient-days. Independent predictors included older age (adjusted OR 1.39 per 10 years, P = 0.021), comorbidities (OR 2.18, P = 0.048), corticosteroid use ≥7 days (OR 2.45, P = 0.025), ≥2 invasive procedures (OR 2.92, P = 0.007) and elevated CSF protein (OR 2.36, P = 0.037). The multivariable risk score achieved an area under the curve of 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.92). Pathogen analysis revealed methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) (24.0%) and Acinetobacter baumannii (20.0%) as predominant isolates, both showing high multidrug resistance, including carbapenem resistance rates of 70% in A. baumannii.
Conclusion:
Secondary intracranial infections occur frequently in viral encephalitis and are strongly associated with host vulnerability. The predominance of MRSA and carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii underscores the urgent need for tailored infection control and antimicrobial strategies in neurocritical care.
Psychiatric comorbidities are common in first-episode psychosis (FEP) and hinder recovery. Problem gambling (PBG), despite potentially serious clinical consequences, remains under-investigated in this population. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of PBG in FEP and identify predictive factors.
Methods
This prospective cohort study was conducted at two FEP programmes in Quebec, Canada. Individuals aged 18–35 years diagnosed with FEP between November-1-2019 and January-31-2023 were screened for PBG using the Problem Gambling Severity Index through May-1-2023. The primary outcome was incident PBG. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for candidate predictors.
Results
Among 520 individuals without prior PBG (mean age = 24.6±4.0 years; 28.8% women), 18 developed PBG during a mean follow-up of 478 days, yielding an incidence rate of 2.6 cases/ 100 person-years. In site-adjusted analyses, white ethnicity (HR = 9.7; 95%CI = 1.3–74.8), incomplete high school education (HR = 2.8; 95%CI = 1.1–7.2), stimulant use disorder (HR=2.8; 95%CI = 1.0–7.3), use of D2/D3-5-HT1A partial agonists (HR = 4.6; 95%CI = 1.5–14.1), and prior non-problematic gambling (HR = 3.1; 95%CI = 1.1–8.4) predicted increased risk. Thirteen cases occurred during aripiprazole treatment, which remained associated with increased PBG risk after multivariable adjustment (adjusted HR = 4.7; 95%CI = 1.6–13.9).
Conclusions
Despite the limited number of incident cases, these results suggest that PBG is relatively common PBG and is associated with potential risk factors, including white ethnicity, incomplete high school education, stimulant use disorder, prior non-problematic gambling, and treatment with D2/D3-5-HT1A partial agonists, particularly aripiprazole. These findings underscore the importance of routine screening for PBG and risk-informed antipsychotic prescribing in FEP.
Our study aimed to explore risk factors for medium–giant coronary artery aneurysms in children with Kawasaki disease.
Methods:
6,540 eligible children with Kawasaki disease who were diagnosed in Wuhan Children’s Hospital from January 2011 to December 2023 were retrospectively analysed. The clinical and laboratory data were compared between medium–giant group and non–medium–giant group.
Results:
A total of 6,540 patients with Kawasaki disease were included, and 162 (2.5%) developed medium–giant coronary artery aneurysms, of whom 56 (0.9%) were giant. Univariate analysis showed a statistically significant difference between the two groups in 22 variables (P< 0.05). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis revealed that intravenous immunoglobulin resistance, haemoglobin, platelet count, and albumin were the most significant risk factors for medium–giant coronary artery aneurysms. The result of binary logistic regression analysis showed that intravenous immunoglobulin resistance (OR = 6.474, 95%CI = 4.399 ∼ 9.528, P< 0.001), platelet count elevation (OR = 1.003, 95%CI = 1.002 ∼ 1.004, P< 0.001), and albumin reduction (OR = 0.912, 95%CI = 0.879 ∼ 0.946, P< 0.001) were independent risk factors affecting the occurrence of medium–giant coronary artery aneurysms, and the area under the curve of the regression model was 0.75, with a sensitivity of 62.3% and a specificity of 79.2%.
Conclusions:
Intravenous immunoglobulin resistance, platelet counts elevation, and albumin levels reduction may be significant predictors of medium–giant coronary artery aneurysms and can serve as a reference for early diagnosis of medium–giant coronary artery aneurysms.