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The Introduction sets the scene by outlining the lives of the book’s main protagonists, young women in Calabar, and the types of uncertainty that shape their lives. The discussion builds up an understanding of the complex and opaque social terrain that these young women must deftly navigate as they work towards a future marked by marriage. In urban Nigeria, the belief in the unseen compounds other political, economic, and physical uncertainties that shape everyday life, contributing to an understanding that nothing is ever quite as it seems. The discussion outlines how young women, far from only falling victim to the irregularities of life in Calabar, turn uncertainty into a resource that they can use to manage their reputations and realise their much hoped-for futures. As well as establishing how the book contributes to anthropological and Africanist literature on uncertainty, the Introduction also opens the debate on the time of youth in Africa by focusing on feminine livelihoods and respectability. The Introduction also provides context of fieldwork and research methodology and provides a chapter outline of the rest of the book.
Drawing together the previous chapters’ discussions of feminine respectability, the Conclusion focuses on the tensions young women experience as they attempt to reconcile personal ambition with societal expectations and as they navigate quotidian life in the city alongside the longer-term objectives of ending their single status. The Conclusion reiterates the book’s two arguments, articulating how feminine youthhood is a period shaped by contingencies, which not only render young women vulnerable but also encourage them to contribute to the uncertainties that shape urban life in contemporary Nigeria. While the previous chapters have discussed how dissimulation, illusion, and concealment shape young women’s lives, and the ambiguous attitudes young women have towards these forms of uncertainty, the Conclusion questions when the fake is categorically immoral. Doing so, young women are inserted into a broader discussion of the means of sustaining, as well as the perceived threats to, social reproduction in urban Nigeria.
The multi-contingency model frames organizational design as a continuous executive task shaped by globalization, digitalization, AI, sustainability, and shifting societal expectations. It identifies nine interdependent components – goals and scope, strategy, environment, configuration, leadership, climate, task design and agents, coordination and control, and incentives and people – whose alignment drives performance. Extending traditional contingency theory, it integrates insights from economics, information processing, and organizational theory, viewing organizations as systems that manage complexity by balancing information-processing demand and capacity. This can mean reducing demand (e.g., modularization, predictive tools) or increasing capacity (e.g., AI, lateral communication, skilled talent). Examples from Microsoft, Aarhus University, Danish healthcare, Uber, and luxury fashion brands show how design adapts to digital innovation, sustainability, and agility. A seven-step method supports the model: getting started, strategic positioning, structuring, defining agents and leadership dynamics, setting coordination and incentives, finalizing architecture, and implementing change.
A tort is a special kind of wrongdoing. ‘Tort’ is a legal term that describes a particular category of interpersonal wrongdoing dealt with by the civil justice system. The law of torts covers a wide range of different types of misconduct, including many torts with well-known names like ‘assault’, ‘battery’, ‘trespass to land’, ‘defamation’ and ‘negligence’. The task of defining the word ‘tort’ is notoriously difficult, given that more than 70 torts are known to the common law world, each with a different focus and a distinctive set of elements to protect different personal interests.
Curiously, there does not appear to be any shared identifying characteristic nor any unified set of interests that the law of torts seeks to protect to the exclusion of any other area of the law. The search for a clear definition is further complicated by the constant state of development of the law of torts. Some torts are outdated and no longer recognised in Australia, while others that have existed in other common law jurisdictions for many years have not yet been widely accepted here.
This endeavor encompasses establishing a dynamic model for a constrained joint module system in collaborative robots, predicated upon the Udwadia-Kalaba equation and constraint-following methodologies. Additionally, a leakage-type adaptive robust controller is developed to assuage uncertainties and disturbances. The structure of the dynamic model is methodically crafted, accommodating uncertain parameters to delineate the behavioral dynamics of the system. Furthermore, a meticulous derivation of a second-order representation of the constraint equations is undertaken to facilitate precise boundaries of the limitations imposed by the system. The proposed controller demonstrates adeptness in tailoring its strategies to the characteristics of both known and unknown attributes of the system, deftly navigating the intrinsic uncertainties of the system. Systematic simulations and empirical analyses have been performed to authenticate the efficacy of the advocated approach in regulating the joint module system. The research outcomes not only augment comprehension of robust control techniques for joint module systems but also furnish invaluable insights to propel future advancements within this specialized domain.
Recent studies have shown that fertility was adversely impacted by the Great Recession of 2008 in both developed and developing nations. We look back further in time to explore how the Great Depression of the 1930s affected fertility rates across the United States. Our main results suggest that a one percent increase in state personal income per capita is associated with a 0.17 to 0.25 percent increase in fertility the next year, which is consistent with estimates found during the post-World War II economy in the United States. Thus, we conclude that fertility decisions were indeed pro-cyclical during the 1930s.
We study the effect of time-varying disagreement of professional forecasters on the transmission of monetary policy in Korea, which has transitioned from an emerging to an advanced economy. We find that high levels of disagreement interfere with the transmission of monetary policy and, hence, weaken monetary policy effects. However, under low levels of disagreement, a monetary policy shock elicits textbook-like responses of inflation, expected inflation, and real activity. The findings are consistent with the view that disagreement affects the role of the signaling channel of monetary transmission relative to the conventional transmission channel. We also show that the dependance of the transmission on the level of disagreement remains intact even after controlling for time-varying monetary policy uncertainty and considering the shifts in the Bank of Korea’s inflation target type.
Through vibrant ethnographic storytelling, this study reveals how young women capitalise on uncertainty in Calabar, southeastern Nigeria, to realise respectable futures. Exploring young women's daily activities across different sites from the house to church, sewing shops and beauty salons, Fashioning Futures examines the complex ways in which various forms of uncertainty permeate life in a city shaped by Pentecostal fervour and patriarchal conservatism. Juliet Gilbert demonstrates how young women actively engage with forms of uncertainty such as illusion, dissimulation and fakery to present themselves as respectable urbanites and work towards marriage. Revealing young women's centrality in the construction of urban lifeworlds in contemporary Nigeria, Gilbert re-casts youthhood in Africa, both as an analytical category and as a time of experience.
Central banks are promising a more climate-based focus on matters ranging from communication to prudential regulation and supervision, including monetary policy. The chapter examines the various arguments that analyze whether the European Central Bank (ECB) can tackle climate change, in light of its mandates. In our view, climate change fits within the narrower central bank mandates, focused on price stability, while other ‘peripheral’ mandates and ‘transversal’ environmental principles can play a supporting role. Prudential regulation and supervision can also be a main point for assimilation. Finally, we examine the considerations of courts of climate change when scrutinizing governmental action and compare them to the considerations of courts of ECB acts. We conclude that the integration of sustainability considerations, and especially climate change, into the ECB price stability mandate seems to be on relatively firm legal ground.
Amidst a deepening sense of uncertainty and polycrisis, how do international organizations (IOs) relate to the future? This article explores the politics of speculative foresight as a pervasive but sparsely researched and undertheorized form of future-oriented expertise in international institutions that taps into eclectic knowledge genres – such as art and literature, management philosophy, geopolitics, and esotericism. First, I examine how foresight is created and validated as a bundle of epistemic practice in contemporary IOs. As a way of knowing, I find that foresight is authorized through claims to innovation, imagination, pluralism, and methodological correctness, challenging established understandings of IO expertise as based on bureaucratic rationality and scientific objectivity. Moreover, I argue that foresight differs from more well-researched future-oriented practices, like risk technologies, forecasting, and anticipatory modeling, by imagining the future as contingent, plural, and unknowable. In a second genealogical move, I illustrate how this specific rendering of the future was made possible historically through the establishment of futures studies as an activist, utopian, and aesthetic counter-project to ‘scientific’ Cold War futurology. The article mobilizes performative thinking in social theory and STS and builds on a transversal analysis of IO documents, digital platforms and archives, futurist writings, and historical literature.
Literary and archaeological evidence suggests that the Roman world was profoundly unequal. What did this mean in material terms for people at the bottom of the social hierarchy? Astrid Van Oyen here investigates the lived experiences of non-elite people in the Roman world through qualitative analysis of archaeological data. Supported by theoretical insights from the material turn, development economics, and feminist studies, her study of precarity cuts across the experiences of workers, the enslaved, women, and conquered populations. Van Oyen considers how precarity shaped these people's relation to production, consumption, time, place, and community. Drawing on empirically rich archaeological data from Roman Italy, Britain, Gaul, and the Iberian Peninsula, Van Oyen challenges long-held assumptions and generates new insights into the lives of the non-elite population. Her novel approaches will inspire future studies, enabling archaeologists, historians, and anthropologists to retrieve the unheard voices of the past.
John Dewey holds that uncertainty is a central feature of the concrete interaction between organism and environment, and he mobilizes this diagnosis to explain both the emergence of inquiry and the persistence of speculative and abstract philosophies. However, we show that material reality is not uncertain and that the quest for certainty cannot explain the flight from the concrete, but should explain a return to it. Drawing on historical, philosophical, and sociological sources (most notably Edgar Zilsel’s thesis and the embodied knowledge of artisans) we invert Dewey’s interpretative framework: epistemic uncertainty arises not from material reality, but from theoretical abstraction. This reinterpretation enables a reformulation of Dewey’s critique of dualism and provides the basis for a pragmatist epistemology grounded in the relative stability of practical experience. Finally, it opens the way for a reconsideration of the foundations of democracy from a non-relativistic perspective.
Discover the foundations of classical and quantum information theory in the digital age with this modern introductory textbook. Familiarise yourself with core topics such as uncertainty, correlation, and entanglement before exploring modern techniques and concepts including tensor networks, quantum circuits and quantum discord. Deepen your understanding and extend your skills with over 250 thought-provoking end-of-chapter problems, with solutions for instructors, and explore curated further reading. Understand how abstract concepts connect to real-world scenarios with over 400 examples, including numerical and conceptual illustrations, and emphasising practical applications. Build confidence as chapters progressively increase in complexity, alternating between classic and quantum systems. This is the ideal textbook for senior undergraduate and graduate students in electrical engineering, computer science, and applied mathematics, looking to master the essentials of contemporary information theory.
Chapter 2 develops a theory explaining when states pursue arms control agreements and why they choose different levels of monitoring provisions. It argues that domestic political volatility in adversary states creates uncertainty about their incentives for cooperation, making formal agreements more likely through two distinct pathways. The "hedging" pathway occurs when states become uncertain about previously cooperative opponents and pursue low monitoring agreements rather than relying on informal coordination. The "risking" pathway emerges when states become uncertain about previously competitive opponents and pursue high monitoring treaties to cautiously seek cooperation benefits. The theory is built on a game theoretic model that analyzes how states select monitoring provisions based on their beliefs about adversary types and implementation challenges. The chapter identifies two key sources of domestic volatility that drive uncertainty: leadership/elite turnover and public pressure on governments. The theory generates testable hypotheses about when states will pursue agreements and what monitoring levels they will select, conditional on their baseline beliefs about adversary intentions. This framework provides new insights into the relationship between domestic politics, uncertainty, and international security cooperation.
This chapter estimates the distribution of cases among the categories of stasis established in Chapter 9, as well as two additional subcategories, using a blend of qualitative and (especially) quantitative analysis. Broadly speaking, it shows that only a miniscule minority of staseis involved the most extreme type of violence (internal war); that a larger minority involved less-extreme-but-still-bloody forms of violence, such as mass executions and battles; and that a majority relied exclusively on types of violence that limited the number of fatalities, such as assassinations, betrayals, and expulsions.
Clinical ethics consultation was requested by the intensive care unit regarding a young woman with a near full-term pregnancy on the brink of COVID respiratory failure. She refused lifesaving mechanical ventilation, as she embraced the religious instruction of her upbringing to distrust religious outsiders and instead allow God to personally direct her choices. A psychiatrist determined that her beliefs were atypical, but she had medical decision-making capacity to refuse ventilation. Without it, her intensivist team anticipated her death along with the fetus within hours. Ethical consultation weighed the following: rights to bodily autonomy; standards of informed refusal; religious coping; nonabandonment and trust; moral distress and sympathetic regret. With her permission, the ethics consultant contacted her family, who were dismayed by her choices and reached out to persuade her otherwise. Within hours, she provided consent for ventilation and cesarean section; despite these, she required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for ten days. Ultimately, she and her healthy newborn were discharged home. In follow up, she described no regrets over her care nor distrust of her providers. The clinical ethicist is haunted by the uncertainties of the practice of medicine and ethics, as well as by missteps in the consultation process
To mitigate uncertainty, it is often assumed that governments negotiate ample flexibility provisions when entering new international treaties. Yet, the case of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) suggests that governments prioritize the more stringent commitments when faced with uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate the effects of uncertainty spikes occurring during negotiations on the design of 251 bilateral PTAs. Our theory proposes that sharp increases in uncertainty make governments more prone to signing deeper PTAs to emphasize their commitment to liberalization. In doing so, governments cater to firms’ demands for institutions protecting investment, upholding intellectual property rights, and promoting regulatory harmonization. We find robust evidence that PTAs are deeper when the contracting parties are faced with uncertainty spikes during negotiations. However, we do not find equally consistent evidence that countries also make PTAs more flexible. While much of the rational-design literature has focused on flexibility as a tool to cope with uncertainty, our findings suggest that countries rather tend to tighten their international commitments in turbulent times.
Authoritarian incumbents routinely use democratic emulation as a strategy to extend their tenure in power. Yet, there is also evidence that multiparty competition makes electoral authoritarianism more vulnerable to failure. Proceeding from the assumption that the outcomes of authoritarian electoral openings are inherently uncertain, it is argued in this article that the institutionalisation of elections determines whether electoral authoritarianism promotes stability or vulnerability. By ‘institutionalisation’, it is meant the ability of authoritarian regimes to reduce uncertainty over outcomes as they regularly hold multiparty elections. Using discrete‐time event‐history models for competing risks, the effects of sequences of multiparty elections on patterns of regime survival and failure in 262 authoritarian regimes from 1946 to 2010 are assessed, conditioned on their degree of competitiveness. The findings suggest that the institutionalisation of electoral uncertainty enhances authoritarian regime survival. However, for competitive electoral authoritarian regimes this entails substantial risk. The first three elections substantially increase the probability of democratisation, with the danger subsequently diminishing. This suggests that convoking multiparty competition is a risky game with potentially high rewards for autocrats who manage to institutionalise elections. Yet, only a small number of authoritarian regimes survive as competitive beyond the first few elections, suggesting that truly competitive authoritarianism is hard to institutionalise. The study thus finds that the question of whether elections are dangerous or stabilising for authoritarianism is dependent on differences between the ability of competitive and hegemonic forms of electoral authoritarianism to reduce electoral uncertainty.
This article argues that process tracing is a viable and suitable methodological alternative to probe the implications of formal models specifying how the dynamics of belief formation may systematically cause bargaining failures under uncertainty. I illustrate the argument with a brief case study of the failure of the European Defence Community in postwar Europe.