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Updated estimates of 2024 ice thickness, the surface elevation losses in the last years and simulations of mass balance and evolution (using the Instructed Glacier Model) for the three largest Pyrenean glaciers strongly suggest that by 2034 the Pyrenees will be ice-free. If extreme summers like 2022 and 2023 recur, this could happen even earlier. We show that by 2030, 94% (from 0.22 to 0.01 km2) of the ice in Monte Perdido, 91% (from 0.22 to 0.05 km2) of the ice in Ossoue and 79% of the ice in Aneto (from 0.34 to 0.06 km2) will have melted under the RCP4.5 scenario; these numbers are 83%, 72% and 57% under a committed ice loss scenario, meaning that only 0.05, 0.12 and 0.12 km2 of ice will remain, respectively. In 2034, most likely they will have completely disappeared under the three considered scenarios (RCP 4.5, ‘committed ice loss’ and extreme 2022 year in a loop). The loss of these glaciers is a harbinger for what will happen in many other mountain regions.
Measurements of the radiocarbon (14C) content of subannual wood cellulose samples over the 1963 bomb spike have revealed an apparent delay between the increase in atmospheric radiocarbon content and that of wood cellulose. This delay is apparent in both coniferous and deciduous tree species and is of a magnitude of approximately 4 weeks. The delay in wood cellulose 14C change as measured in a Sitka spruce from Washington state, USA, was previously used to estimate the relative influence of tree physiological effects contra environmental effects. We repeated the measurements with the increased measurement precision of today’s AMS systems and compare the new results to the ones of a Scots pine tree from Trondheim, central Norway and a white oak from Oregon state, USA. The results challenge the assumption that the 14C tree ring records directly show the atmospheric 14C concentration of a homogeneous, zonally well-mixed atmosphere. Instead, the apparent 1963 delay reflects local influences of the ecosystem and tree physiology. The 1963/1964 data allows for exploratory modeling of the effects of biospheric decay CO2 and local environmental influences assuming the absence of stored photosynthates from the previous year. Compared to the 10–30% contribution from biospheric CO2, the effects of delayed incorporation of carbon into the wood cellulose and the effect of stored photosynthate are small in the conifers. Highly detailed 14C records of stem cellulose can, in combination with stable isotope studies, contribute to our understanding of variability of the local carbon cycle, climate, and the environment.
This study investigates the strong influence of a splitter plate on two- and three-dimensional wake transitions of a circular cylinder. Direct numerical simulations and Floquet analyses are conducted over a parameter space including Reynolds numbers (Re) of 10–480 and non-dimensional plate lengths (L/D) of 0–6. With the increase in L/D, the critical Re for the onset of vortex shedding (Recr2D) increases monotonically. The delayed onset of vortex shedding with elongation of the body is physically explained. The critical Re for the onset of three-dimensionality (Recr3D) and the three-dimensional wake instability modes and structures are also significantly altered by the splitter plate. Compared with an isolated cylinder, the Recr3D for L/D = 1 is significantly reduced via a long wavelength mode, whereas the Recr3D for L/D = 2–6 is significantly increased via other modes. For each L/D, with increasing Re over the wake transition process, the spanwise wavelength of the wake structure gradually decreases, and the wake structure becomes increasingly chaotic. The strong influence of the splitter plate on the formation of the primary vortices and three-dimensional wake structures alter the hydrodynamic characteristics strongly. In particular, optimal lift reduction is achieved at L/D ∼ 1. In addition, the existence/absence of a hysteresis effect at the onset of three-dimensionality is identified by three methods. Among which, the method involving the Landau equation may be contaminated by initial transients induced by stable Floquet modes and may thus lead to a false conclusion on the existence/absence of hysteresis.
How can wellbeing for all be improved while reducing risks of destabilising the biosphere? This ambition underlies the 2030 Agenda but analysing whether it is possible in the long-term requires linking global socioeconomic developments with life-supporting Earth systems and incorporating feedbacks between them. The Earth4All initiative explores integrated developments of human wellbeing and environmental pressures up to 2100 based on expert elicitation and an integrated global systems model. The relatively simple Earth4All model focuses on quantifying and capturing some high-level feedback between socioeconomic and environmental domains. It analyses economic transformations to increase wellbeing worldwide and increase social cohesion to create conditions that are more likely to reduce pressures on planetary boundaries. The model includes two key novelties: a social tension index and a wellbeing index, to track societal progress this century. The scenarios suggest that today's dominant economic policies are likely to lead to rising social tensions, worsening environmental pressures, and declining wellbeing. In the coming decades, unchecked rising social tensions, we hypothesise, will make it more difficult to build a large consensus around long-term industrial policy and behavioural changes needed to respect planetary boundaries. We propose five extraordinary turnarounds around poverty, inequality, empowerment, energy and food that in the model world can shift the economy off the current trajectory, improve human wellbeing at a global scale, reduce social tensions and ease environmental pressures. The model, the five (exogenous) turnarounds and the resulting two scenarios can be used as science-policy boundary objects in discussions on future trajectories.
Non-technical summary
Our world is facing a convergence of environmental, health, security, and social crises. These issues demand urgent, systemic solutions now that address not only environmental but also social dimensions. Weak political responses have stalled progress on the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. We have developed scenarios that explore interconnections between possible climate futures, rising living costs, and increasing inequalities that fuel populism and undermine democracy to the year 2100. We propose five turnaround solutions – energy, food and land systems, inequality, poverty, and gender equality – that if enacted are likely to provide wellbeing for a majority of people plus greater social cohesion. This will support long-term industrial policies and behavioural change to reduce emissions and protect the biosphere toward a long-term goal of living on a relatively stable planet.
Social Media summary
Our dominant economic model is destabilising societies and the planet. Earth4All found 5 turnarounds for real system change.
The Lower Jurassic (Toarcian) Posidonienschiefer Formation of southwestern Germany is a classic konservat lagerstätte, yielding some of the world’s best-preserved fossils of marine vertebrates, including ichthyosaurs, thalattosuchian crocodylomorphs, plesiosaurs and fishes. Despite numerous studies concentrating on the taphonomy of ichthyosaurs in this formation, less taphonomic work has focussed on the thalattosuchians of the assemblage. Multiple thalattosuchian species displaying a wide range of body sizes have been recovered. We investigated indicators for seafloor arrival position in thirteen Macrospondylus bollensis and one Platysuchus multiscrobiculatus specimens representing various body sizes using three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetric models. False-colour depth maps were used to interpret the relative topography (depth level) of bone penetration into the sediment and were aligned on the XY plane, making them parallel to the stratigraphic plane. Our results show both headfirst and non-headfirst seafloor arrivals in observed specimens, with headfirst seafloor arrivals exhibiting deeply buried skulls, displacement of select cervical vertebrae and/or characteristic fractures in the cranium and mandible. We (1) interpret seafloor landing types in teleosauroids; (2) recognize and list specific characteristics that are consistently attributed to either a headfirst or non-headfirst seafloor arrival; (3) discuss possible factors that may have contributed to these features, such as body shape and size, substrate and velocity; and (4) provide a new definition for headfirst seafloor arrival that can be readily attributed to other marine vertebrates from various formations. Lastly, our results show that observers must carefully consider how historical specimens might have been prepared, as this may influence taphonomic interpretations.
Avocados are a widely consumed fruit and are part of many Latin American cuisines and plant-based diets globally. However, producing avocados is water-intensive, and plantations can cause soil erosion and water stress. In Chile, avocados are produced in semiarid zones and require irrigation. They are widely consumed locally but are increasingly exported to meet growing global demand. This causes significant local conflicts over water, especially because of the system of private water rights in Chile. There are many gaps in understanding the complex and interconnected system of avocado production and international markets, especially its impacts on local communities and biodiversity.
Technical Summary.
The popularity of avocados has increased globally in alternative diets, alongside its integral role in Latin American cuisine. In Chile, avocados are grown extensively and intensively in orchards in the dry and Mediterranean climate of Central Chile. Avocado is a water-demanding crop and the severe water crisis in Chile has called attention to the conflicts caused by its water use. As most of the pressure to produce avocado comes from international demand but results in impacts on native ecosystems and local communities, avocado production in Chile is an example of a telecoupled system. Here, we characterize avocado production as a telecoupled social–ecological system in order to identify gaps in knowledge, based on a review of key studies. Research priorities include how to improve water-use efficiency, especially in the context of climate change; the impacts on biodiversity; and the socioeconomic dynamics between local communities, trade, and governance. The analysis is constrained by limited access to data and few interdisciplinary studies on the matter. To reduce the impacts of avocado production and increase its sustainability, there is an urgent need to amplify the interdisciplinary research that emphasizes the interconnections between the social and ecological components in avocado production in Chile.
Social Media Summary.
Global avocado demand fuels local conflicts in Chile due to water stress and social–ecological pressures on communities.
Baltic Sea ice coverage was modelled using a sea-ice thermodynamics and dynamics model coupled with a three-dimensional (3-D) PM3D hydrodynamic model. The validation for 1958–2007 showed the modelled maximum ice extents (MIEs) agree well with observations (r = 0.97) and the ice thickness less so, but satisfactory for most stations (r > 0.8). This enabled the production of cumulative ice thickness (CIT) maps and the determination of the spatial variation in sea-ice extent in the Baltic over the analysed period for four air temperature scenarios with a constant value reduction. This showed the spatial sensitivity of ice cover dynamics to temperature changes and allowed to distinct regions with different impact of change in temperature on CIT. The simulation for temperature of 2°C lower than 1958–2007 was consistent with the reconstruction of MIEs in the entire Baltic Sea for the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1721–1860). For the western Baltic, the compliance was highest for temperature reduced by 3°C and 4°C. This indicates that climatic conditions may have differed between individual regions of the Baltic during the LIA, and the air temperature anomaly in the western Baltic may have been greater than indicated by previous studies
Jellyfish are widely distributed throughout the world’s oceans. However, understanding jellyfish species’ distributions remains poor. Here, we addressed this knowledge gap by applying an approach that uses citizen science observations to inform collection of samples which then undergo molecular analysis. Doing so allowed us to confirm the presence of the jellyfish Cyanea purpurea in the waters of Hong Kong SAR for the first time. Due to morphological overlap in Cyanea species, DNA analysis confirmed specimen identification. Samples were taken from 19 jellyfish individuals for subsequent DNA analysis. Ten samples (53%) were confirmed as C. purpurea, two samples (10%) were identified as Cyanea nozakii, and seven samples (37%) were not able to be identified. The combined application of citizen science and DNA analysis has proven effective in confirming the presence of C. purpurea in Hong Kong waters. This approach of using citizen science observations to inform the collection of samples for subsequent molecular analysis could be transferrable to other similar situations in which identification based solely on morphology is insufficient, potentially enhancing our ability to recognise species occurrence.
Sub-convective wall pressure fluctuations play a critical role in vibroacoustic and noise analyses of vehicle structures as they serve as the primary forcing function. However, measuring these fluctuations is challenging due to their weak pressure magnitudes, typically $10^{-3}{-}10^{-5}$ of convective fluctuations. This study introduces a non-intrusive measurement technique using an array of multi-pore Helmholtz resonator sensors to capture sub-convective fluctuations with high resolution. The array features large-area, spanwise-oriented sensors arranged linearly for optimal sampling. Results provide a continuous streamwise wavenumber–frequency spectrum, resolving sub-convective fluctuations with sufficient range and accuracy. Convergence analysis indicates that long sampling durations, $\mathcal{O}(10^6 \delta ^*/U_\infty )$, $\delta^*$ is the displacement thickness of the boundary layer. $U_\infty$ is the freestream velocity are necessary to capture true sub-convective levels. Comparisons with four existing wall pressure models, which account for sensor area averaging, reveal discrepancies in predicted levels, convection speed relations and convective ridge characteristics. Notably, the measured data align most closely with the Chase (1980, J. Sound Vib., vol.70, pp. 29–67) model at convective peak levels and in the sub-convective domain. However, the observed roll-off at wavenumbers exceeding the convective wavenumber decays more slowly than predicted, giving the convective ridge an asymmetric profile about the convective line. These findings underscore the need for improved wall pressure models that incorporate frequency-dependent convective speed relations, ridge asymmetry, and more accurate sub-convective levels. Further validation using a microphone array from Farabee & Geib (1991) confirms the accuracy of our measurements, which indicate sub-convective pressure levels lower than reported previously.
The chapter explores the social relations of renewable energy and everyday life in the Indian state of Karnataka, focusing on the 2 GW Pavagada solar energy park, said to be the largest in Asia, and on the experience of wind energy at the local level. It analyses these installations in the historical context of national and state-level energy policy, framed by wider developmental dynamics and stratification in the Karnataka locality. We contrast the renewable ‘resource’ with fossil fuel sources and highlight differences between solar and wind power. We discuss the drive to attract renewable investment to the region, along with development finance, in the context of Karnataka’s development trajectory. We interpret the transition to renewable energy in terms of social structures and the extent to which it exacerbates or alleviates pre-existing social divides. There is a strong focus on implications for land, water, livelihood, caste, gender, and environment, including for instance the role, or displacement, of rural landless and lower-caste groups.
The Introduction sets the rationale and parameters for the study. The rationale begins with the growing climate crisis and the urgent necessity to decarbonise energy. It outlines the limits of the current assumption that private sector investment can deliver the required decarbonisation. Public legitimacy for renewables, we argue, has moved to the centre of the energy transition, requiring stronger forms of social ownership over the emerging energy systems. New roles for the state in decarbonising society are highlighted, along with a ‘re-commoning’ agenda and issues of sufficiency. Finally, the book’s focus on investigating and comparing region-level ‘success’ stories is outlined.
We outline the socio-ecological appropriation of ‘nature’s free gifts’ of wind and sun for renewable energy, understood as a process of capture, which opens a new ‘frontier’ in capital-nature relations. We elaborate on the term ‘nature’s free gifts’, originally derived from Marx, and its use in Marxist approaches to ecology and social theory as documented by Saito (2022). Second, we highlight the process of securing a spatial, temporal, and social ‘fix’ for large-scale renewables, to enable accumulation, and as an emerging aspect of rivalry between region-level authorities and developers to reap the rewards of the renewable energy transition. Third, we focus on the social relations of renewable accumulation, encompassing state authorities, corporates, workers, landowners, and communities, engaged in a contest to define models for renewable transition and lay claim to ‘nature’s free gifts’. These three strands are used to develop a conceptual model to interpret the social legitimacy of renewable transition and to guide the comparative analysis.
For Stokes waves in finite depth within the neighbourhood of the Benjamin–Feir stability transition, there are two families of periodic waves, one modulationally unstable and the other stable. In this paper we show that these two families can be joined by a heteroclinic connection, which manifests in the fluid as a travelling front. By shifting the analysis to the setting of Whitham modulation theory, this front is in wavenumber and frequency space. An implication of this jump is that a permanent frequency downshift of the Stokes wave can occur in the absence of viscous effects. This argument, which is built on a sequence of asymptotic expansions of the phase dynamics, is confirmed via energetic arguments, with additional corroboration obtained by numerical simulations of a reduced model based on the Benney–Roskes equation.
The chapter centres on the expansion of wind power and the subsequent ‘solar rush’ in the German ‘energy state’ of Brandenburg, where the energy transition (or Energiewende) has been underway for more than two decades. We follow the unfolding process of renewable energy development and socio-ecological capture, paying particular attention to the changing scale of operations exemplified by a move to larger wind turbines and the current shift to large-scale solar farms. The chapter provides a rich account of the nexus between a well-established renewables sector and other forms of land use, such as leisure, aesthetics, agriculture, or forestry. The conflict between narratives of regional and local development, prompted, defined, and mobilised in the energy transition, is seen as opening new fields of engagement and disputation in the emerging ‘green’ economy.
This paper explores the construction of quadratic Lyapunov functions for establishing the conditional stability of shear flows described by truncated ordinary differential equations, addressing the limitations of traditional methods like the Reynolds–Orr equation and linear stability analysis. The Reynolds–Orr equation, while effective for predicting unconditional stability thresholds in shear flows due to the non-contribution of nonlinear terms, often underestimates critical Reynolds numbers. Linear stability analysis, conversely, can yield impractically high limits due to subcritical transitions. Quadratic Lyapunov functions offer a promising alternative, capable of proving conditional stability, albeit with challenges in their construction. Typically, sum-of-squares programs are employed for this purpose, but these can result in sizable optimisation problems as system complexity increases. This study introduces a novel approach using linear transformations described by matrices to define quadratic Lyapunov functions, validated through nonlinear optimisation techniques. This method proves particularly advantageous for large systems by leveraging analytical gradients in the optimisation process. Two construction methods are proposed: one based on general optimisation of transformation matrix coefficients, and another focusing solely on the system’s linear aspects for more efficient Lyapunov function construction. These approaches are tested on low-order models of subcritical transition and a two-dimensional Poiseuille flow model with degrees of freedom nearing 1000, demonstrating their effectiveness and efficiency compared with sum-of-squares programs.