The number Y n of offspring of the most prolific individual in the nth generation of a Bienaymé–Galton–Watson process is studied. The asymptotic behaviour of Y n as n → ∞ may be viewed as an extreme value problem for i.i.d. random variables with random sample size. Limit theorems for both Y n and EY n provided that the offspring mean is finite are obtained using some convergence results for branching processes as well as a transfer limit lemma for maxima. Subcritical, critical and supercritical branching processes are considered separately.

This work is concerned with the prediction problem for a class of Lp-random fields. For this class of fields, we derive prediction error formulas, spectral factorizations, and orthogonal decompositions.

Recently in the paper by Møller and Zuyev (1996), the following Gamma-type result was established. Given n points of a homogeneous Poisson process defining a random figure, its volume is Γ(n,λ) distributed, where λ is the intensity of the process. In this paper we give an alternative description of the class of random sets for which the Gamma-type results hold. We show that it corresponds to the class of stopping sets with respect to the natural filtration of the point process with certain scaling properties. The proof uses the martingale technique for directed processes, in particular, an analogue of Doob's optional sampling theorem proved in Kurtz (1980). As well as being compact, this approach provides a new insight into the nature of geometrical objects constructed with respect to a Poisson point process. We show, in particular, that in this framework the probability that a point is covered by a stopping set does not depend on whether it is a point of the process or not.

The paper is concerned with the final state and severity of a number of SIR epidemic models in finite populations. Two different classes of models are considered, namely the classical SIR Markovian models and the collective models introduced recently by the authors. First, by applying a simple martingale argument, it is shown that in both cases, there exists a common algebraic structure underlying the exact law of the final state and severity. Then, a unified approach to these statistics is developed by exploiting the theory of Abel-Gontcharoff pseudopolynomials (presented in a preceding paper).

We analyse a class of diffusion models that (i) allows an explicit expression for the likelihood function of discrete time observation, (ii) allows the possibility of heavy-tailed observations, and (iii) allows an analysis of the tails of the increments. The class simply consists of transformed Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes and is of relevance for heavy-tailed time series. We also treat the question of the existence of an equivalent martingale measure for the class of models considered.

We consider an infinite server queueing system. An examination of sample path dynamics allows a straightforward development of integral equations having solutions that give time-dependent occupancy (number of customers) and backlog (unfinished work) distributions (conditioned on the time of the first arrival) for the GI/G/∞ queue. These integral equations are amenable to numerical evaluation and can be generalized to characterize GI X /G/∞ queue. Two examples are given to illustrate the results.

We study a variety of optimal investment problems for objectives related to attaining goals by a fixed terminal time. We start by finding the policy that maximizes the probability of reaching a given wealth level by a given fixed terminal time, for the case where an investor can allocate his wealth at any time between n + 1 investment opportunities: n risky stocks, as well as a risk-free asset that has a positive return. This generalizes results recently obtained by Kulldorff and Heath for the case of a single investment opportunity. We then use this to solve related problems for cases where the investor has an external source of income, and where the investor is interested solely in beating the return of a given stochastic benchmark, as is sometimes the case in institutional money management. One of the benchmarks we consider for this last problem is that of the return of the optimal growth policy, for which the resulting controlled process is a supermartingale. Nevertheless, we still find an optimal strategy. For the general case, we provide a thorough analysis of the optimal strategy, and obtain new insights into the behavior of the optimal policy. For one special case, namely that of a single stock with constant coefficients, the optimal policy is independent of the underlying drift. We explain this by exhibiting a correspondence between the probability maximizing results and the pricing and hedging of a particular derivative security, known as a digital or binary option. In fact, we show that for this case, the optimal policy to maximize the probability of reaching a given value of wealth by a predetermined time is equivalent to simply buying a European digital option with a particular strike price and payoff. A similar result holds for the general case, but with the stock replaced by a particular (index) portfolio, namely the optimal growth or log-optimal portfolio.

The germ-grain model is defined as the union of independent identically distributed compact random sets (grains) shifted by points (germs) of a point process. The paper introduces a family of stationary random measures in ℝd generated by germ-grain models and defined by the sum of contributions of non-overlapping parts of the individual grains. The main result of the paper is the central limit theorem for these random measures, which holds for rather general independently marked germ-grain models, including those with non-Poisson distribution of germs and non-convex grains. It is shown that this construction of random measures includes those random measures obtained by positively extended intrinsic volumes. In the Poisson case it is possible to prove a central limit theorem under weaker assumptions by using approximations by m-dependent random fields. Applications to statistics of the Boolean model are also discussed. They include a standard way to derive limit theorems for estimators of the model parameters.

A well-known result on the distribution tail of the maximum of a random walk with heavy-tailed increments is extended to more general stochastic processes. Results are given in different settings, involving, for example, stationary increments and regeneration. Several examples and counterexamples illustrate that the conditions of the theorems can easily be verified in practice and are in part necessary. The examples include superimposed renewal processes, Markovian arrival processes, semi-Markov input and Cox processes with piecewise constant intensities.

We note some interesting properties of the class of point processes which are Markov with respect to the ‘connected component’ relation. Results in the literature imply that this class is closed under random translation and independent cluster generation with almost surely non-empty clusters. We further prove that it is closed under superposition. A wide range of examples is also given.

We consider a class of random point and germ-grain processes, obtained using a rather natural weighting procedure. Given a Poisson point process, on each point one places a grain, a (possibly random) compact convex set. Let Ξ be the union of all grains. One can now construct new processes whose density is derived from an exponential of a linear combination of quermass functionals of Ξ. If only the area functional is used, then the area-interaction point process is recovered. New point processes arise if we include the perimeter length functional, or the Euler functional (number of components minus number of holes). The main question addressed by the paper is that of when the resulting point process is well-defined: geometric arguments are used to establish conditions for the point process to be stable in the sense of Ruelle.

One method of linkage analysis in humans is based on identity-by-descent of pairs of relatives who share a phenotype of interest (for example, a particular disease). We replace the convenient assumption of continuous specification of regions of identity by descent by the more realistic, although still artificially simple, assumption of data from a discrete set of equally spaced infinitely polymorphic markers. We generalize the continuous time Markov chain analysis of Feingold (1993b) and compare the accuracy of the new approximation with that of the simpler Gaussian approximation of Feingold, Brown and Siegmund (1993) under a variety of assumptions about the composition of the pedigrees to be studied. We also suggest a perturbation of the Gaussian approximation as a compromise to achieve reasonable accuracy with minimal computational effort.

Prediction of future values of a shot noise process observed on a discrete lattice of points is considered. The shot magnitudes are assumed to be independent and identically distributed and to arrive via a Poisson process; the effect of each shot dissipates and/or accumulates according to a known shot function. Conditional mean and linear point predictors of future process values are developed. Distributional prediction, obtained through saddlepoint approximation of the conditional distributions of the process, is also explored.

We study a financial market with incompleteness arising from two sources: stochastic volatility and portfolio constraints. The latter are given in terms of bounds imposed on the borrowing and short-selling of a ‘hedger’ in this market, and can be described by a closed convex set K. We find explicit characterizations of the minimal price needed to super-replicate European-type contingent claims in this framework. The results depend on whether the volatility is bounded away from zero and/or infinity, and also, on if we have linear dynamics for the stock price process, and whether volatility process depends on the stock price. We use a previously known representation of the minimal price as a supremum of the prices in the corresponding shadow markets, and we derive a PDE characterization of that representation.

For a large class of neutral population models the asymptotics of the ancestral structure of a sample of n individuals (or genes) is studied, if the total population size becomes large. Under certain conditions and under a well-known time-scaling, which can be expressed in terms of the coalescence probabilities, weak convergence in D E ([0,∞)) to the coalescent holds. Further the convergence behaviour of the jump chain of the ancestral process is studied. The results are used to approximate probabilities which are of certain interest in applications, for example hitting probabilities.

This paper examines the connection between loss networks without controls and Markov random field theory. The approach taken yields insight into the structure and computation of network equilibrium distributions, and into the nature of spatial dependence in networks. In addition, it provides further insight into some commonly used approximations, enables the development of more refined approximations, and permits the derivation of some asymptotically exact results.

Conditions are derived for the components of the normed limit of a multi-type branching process with varying environments, to be continuous on (0, ∞). The main tool is an inequality for the concentration function of sums of independent random variables, due originally to Petrov. Using this, we show that if there is a discontinuity present, then a particular linear combination of the population types must converge to a non-random constant (Equation (1)). Ensuring this can not happen provides the desired continuity conditions.

Let ξ0,ξ1,ξ2,… be a homogeneous Markov process and let S n denote the partial sum S n = θ(ξ1) + … + θ(ξn ), where θ(ξ) is a scalar nonlinearity. If N is a stopping time with 𝔼N < ∞ and the Markov process satisfies certain ergodicity properties, we then show that 𝔼S N = [limn→∞𝔼θ(ξn )]𝔼N + 𝔼ω(ξ0) − 𝔼ω(ξN ). The function ω(ξ) is a well defined scalar nonlinearity directly related to θ(ξ) through a Poisson integral equation, with the characteristic that ω(ξ) becomes zero in the i.i.d. case. Consequently our result constitutes an extension to Wald's first lemma for the case of Markov processes. We also show that, when 𝔼N → ∞, the correction term is negligible as compared to 𝔼N in the sense that 𝔼ω(ξ0) − 𝔼ω(ξN ) = o(𝔼N).

Long-range dependence has been recently asserted to be an important characteristic in modeling telecommunications traffic. Inspired by the integral relationship between the fractional Brownian motion and the standard Brownian motion, we model a process with long-range dependence, Y, as a fractional integral of Riemann-Liouville type applied to a more standard process X—one that does not have long-range dependence. When X takes the form of a sample path process with bounded stationary increments, we provide a criterion for X to satisfy a moderate deviations principle (MDP). Based on the MDP of X, we then establish the MDP for Y. Furthermore, we characterize, in terms of the MDP, the transient behavior of queues when fed with the long-range dependent input process Y. In particular, we identify the most likely path that leads to a large queue, and demonstrate that unlike the case where the input has short-range dependence, the path here is nonlinear.

In this paper we study the supremum distribution of a class of Gaussian processes having stationary increments and negative drift using key results from Extreme Value Theory. We focus on deriving an asymptotic upper bound to the tail of the supremum distribution of such processes. Our bound is valid for both discrete- and continuous-time processes. We discuss the importance of the bound, its applicability to queueing problems, and show numerical examples to illustrate its performance.