Estimating the lengths-of-stay (LoS) of hospitalised COVID-19 patients is key for predicting the hospital beds’ demand and planning mitigation strategies, as overwhelming the healthcare systems has critical consequences for disease mortality. However, accurately mapping the time-to-event of hospital outcomes, such as the LoS in the intensive care unit (ICU), requires understanding patient trajectories while adjusting for covariates and observation bias, such as incomplete data. Standard methods, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator, require prior assumptions that are untenable given current knowledge. Using real-time surveillance data from the first weeks of the COVID-19 epidemic in Galicia (Spain), we aimed to model the time-to-event and event probabilities of patients’ hospitalised, without parametric priors and adjusting for individual covariates. We applied a non-parametric mixture cure model and compared its performance in estimating hospital ward (HW)/ICU LoS to the performances of commonly used methods to estimate survival. We showed that the proposed model outperformed standard approaches, providing more accurate ICU and HW LoS estimates. Finally, we applied our model estimates to simulate COVID-19 hospital demand using a Monte Carlo algorithm. We provided evidence that adjusting for sex, generally overlooked in prediction models, together with age is key for accurately forecasting HW and ICU occupancy, as well as discharge or death outcomes.

No previous studies have examined Mycobacterium avium complex pulmonary disease (MAC-PD) in only elderly patients ⩾75 years old. Here, we investigated the exacerbating factors of MAC-PD in elderly patients and clarified cases that can be followed up without MAC medication. From April 2011 to March 2019, 126 advanced aged patients at our institute were newly diagnosed with MAC-PD, and could be observed based on radiological findings for over a year. Their medical records were retrospectively examined for clinical and radiological findings at the time of diagnosis and 1 year later. To identify the predictors of exacerbation, clinical characteristics of 109 treatment-naïve patients were compared between exacerbated and unchanged groups. Additionally, the unchanged group was followed for one more year. In the current study, positive acid-fast bacilli smears from the sputum test, the presence of cavitary lesions and extensive radiological findings, particularly abnormal shadows in ⩾3 lobes, were predictive of exacerbation among treatment-naïve elderly MAC-PD patients. In the unchanged group, <10% showed exacerbation of radiological findings within the subsequent year. In conclusion, if the sputum smear is negative, no cavitary lesions are present, and abnormal shadows are restricted to ⩽2 lobes, elderly patients with MAC-PD may remain untreated for a few years.

The study aims to estimate and compare the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence, the fraction of asymptomatic or subclinical infections in the population, determine the demographic risk factors and analyse the antibody development at different time points among adults in Bhubaneswar city, India. This was a serial three-round cross-sectional, community-based study where participants were selected from the residents of Bhubaneswar city using multi-stage random sampling. Blood samples were collected during household visits along with demographic and clinical data from every participant. Total anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody present in serum was assessed using the electro-chemiluminescence immunoassay platform. Temporal comparisons of the community seroprevalence were performed against the detected number of cumulative cases, active cases, recoveries and deaths. A total of 3693 participants were enrolled in this study with a cumulative non-response rate of 18.33% in all the three rounds. The gender-weighted seroprevalence for the city in the first round was 1.55% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84–2.58), second round was 5.27% (95% CI 4.13–6.59) and in the third round was 49.04% (95% CI 46.39–51.68). In the first round, the seroprevalence was found to be highest in the elderly population, whereas the seroprevalence for the second and third phases was highest in the age group of 30–39 years. Seroprevalence showed an increasing trend over the three time periods, with the highest seropositivity rates among individuals sampled between 16 and 18 September 2020. By the third round, 93.93% of those who had previously been tested positive by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction had seroconversion and 46.57% of those who had been tested negative also showed seroconversion. Infection to case ratio during first round was 27.05, for second round and third round it was 5.62 and 17.91, respectively.

The explosive outbreak of COVID-19 led to a shortage of medical resources, including isolation rooms in hospitals, healthcare workers (HCWs) and personal protective equipment. Here, we constructed a new model, non-contact community treatment centres to monitor and quarantine asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic COVID-19 patients who recorded their own vital signs using a smartphone application. This new model in Korea is useful to overcome shortages of medical resources and to minimise the risk of infection transmission to HCWs.

Recently, the antibacterial properties of oestrogen and progestogen were discovered. The aim of this study was to find the cross-sectional association between oral contraceptive use and Helicobacter pylori seroprevalence. Data were obtained from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The H. pylori immunoglobulin G (IgG) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were used to categorise participants as seropositive or seronegative. The study population included 799 female participants who had information on H. pylori seroprevalence and all other covariates and had not been taking any medications (except oral contraceptives). The bivariate Rao–Scott chi-square test indicated a significant association between H. pylori seroprevalence and contraceptive use (P < 0.01). The variables of race, education, poverty income ratio, smoking, and blood lead and cadmium levels were also significantly associated with H. pylori seroprevalence (P < 0.01). Multiple logistic regression analysis of the age-adjusted model revealed that contraceptive users are 65% less likely of being H. pylori seropositive as compared to non-contraceptive users (odds ratio (OR): 0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.18–0.68). This association is stronger with the final multivariate model (OR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.23–0.89). Conclusions: This finding reveals the potential protective effect of oral contraceptives against H. pylori infection and serves as a foundation study for further investigations.

In extensive cohort studies, the ascertainment of covariate information on all individuals can be challenging. In hospital epidemiology, an additional issue is often the time-dependency of the exposure of interest. We revisit and compare two sampling designs constructed for rare time-dependent exposures and possibly common outcomes – the nested exposure case-control design and exposure density sampling. Both designs enable efficient hazard ratio estimation by sampling all exposed individuals but only a small fraction of the unexposed ones. Moreover, they account for time-dependent exposure to avoid immortal time bias. We evaluate and compare their performance using data of patients hospitalised in the neuro-intensive care unit at the Burdenko Neurosurgery Institute in Moscow, Russia. Three different types of hospital-acquired infections with different prevalence are considered. Additionally, inflation factors, a primary performance measure, are discussed. We enhance both designs to allow for a competitive analysis of combined and competing endpoints compared to the full cohort approach while substantially reducing the amount of necessary information. Nonetheless, exposure density sampling outperforms the nested exposure case-control design concerning efficiency and accuracy in most considered settings.

Brazil ranks second in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide. In spite of this, coping measures differ throughout the national territory, as does the disease's impact on the population. This cross-sectional observational study, with 59 695 cases of COVID-19 registered in the state of Alagoas between March and August 2020, analysed clinical-epidemiological variables, incidence rate, mortality rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and the social indicators municipal human development index (MHDI) and social vulnerability index (SVI). Moran statistics and regression models were applied. Logistic regression analysis was applied to determine the predictors of death. The incidence rate was 1788.7/100 000 inhabitants; mortality rate was 48.0/100 000 and CFR was 2.7%. The highest incidence rates were observed in municipalities with better human development (overall MHDI (I = 0.1668; p = 0.002), education MHDI (I = 0.1649; p = 0.002) and income MHDI (I = 0.1880; p = 0.005)) and higher social vulnerability (overall SVI (I = 0.0599; p = 0.033)). CFR was associated with higher social vulnerability (SVI human capital (I = 0.0858; p = 0.004) and SVI urban infrastructure (I = 0.0985; p = 0.040)). Of the analysed cases, 55.4% were female; 2/3 were Black or Brown and the median age was 41 years. Among deaths, most were male (919; 57.4%) and elderly (1171; 73.1%). The predictors of death were male sex, advanced age and the presence of comorbidities. In Alagoas, Brazil, the disease has undergone a process of interiorisation and caused more deaths in poorer municipalities. The presence of comorbidities and advanced age were predictors of death.

The study aimed to investigate behavioural intentions to receive free and self-paid COVID-19 vaccinations (BICV-F and BICV-SP) among Chinese university students if the vaccine was 80% effective with rare mild side effects, to examine their associations with social media exposures and peer discussions regarding COVID-19 vaccination, and to explore the mediational role of perceived information sufficiency about COVID-19 vaccination. An online anonymous survey (N = 6922) was conducted in November 2020 in five Chinese provinces. Logistic regression and path analysis were adopted. The prevalence of BICV-F and BICV-SP were 78.1% and 57.7%. BICV-F was positively associated with the frequencies of passive social media exposure (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.32, P < 0.001), active social media interaction (AOR = 1.13, P < 0.001) and peer discussions (AOR = 1.17, P < 0.001). Indirect effects of the three factors on BICV-F via perceived information sufficiency were all significant (P < 0.001). The direct effect of active social media interaction on BICV-F was significantly negative (P < 0.001). Similar associations/mediations were observed for BICV-SP. The COVID-19 vaccination intention of Chinese university students needs improvement. Boosting social media exposures and peer discussions may raise students' perceived information sufficiency and subsequently increase their vaccination intention. Considering the potential negative effect of active social media interaction, caution is needed when using social media to promote COVID-19 vaccination.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has emerged as an unprecedented global crisis challenging health systems. This paper aims to assess and characterise SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg to identify groups at greatest risk, to establish early measures to curb transmission. We analysed all mandatory notified (i.e. laboratory-confirmed) coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks with more than two cases in Baden-Wuerttemberg from calendar weeks 18–49 (from 27 April to 6 December 2020). We used the following classification for settings: asylum and refugee accommodation, care homes, care facilities, day care child centres, hobby-related, hospitality, hospitals, households, other, residence halls, schools, supported housing, training schools, transportation, treatment facilities and workplace (occupational). We used R program version 3.6.3 for analysis. In our analysis, 3219 outbreaks with 22 238 individuals were included. About 48% were in household and hobby-related settings. Care homes accounted for 9.5% of outbreaks and 21.6% of cases. The median age across all settings was 43 (interquartile range (IQR) 24–63). The median age of cases in care homes was 81 (IQR 56–88). Of all reported cases in care homes, 72.1% were women. Over 30% (466/1511) of hospitalisations were among cases in care homes compared to 17.7% (268/1511) in households. Overall, 70% (500/715) of all deceased persons in outbreaks in the study period were in care homes compared to 4.2% in household settings (30/715). We observed an exponential increase in the number of notified outbreaks starting around the 41st week with N = 291 outbreaks reported in week 49. The median number of cases in outbreaks in care homes and care facilities after the 40th week was 14 (IQR 5–29) and 11 (IQR 5–20), respectively, compared to 3 (IQR 3–5) in households. We observed an increase in hospitalisations, and mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes after the 40th week. We found the care home demographic to be at greatest risk after the 40th week, based on the exponential increase in outbreaks, the number of cases, hospitalisations and mortality trends. Our analysis highlights the necessity of targeted, setting-specific approaches to control transmission in this vulnerable population. Regular screening of staff members and visitors' using rapid antigen point-of-care-tests could be a game-changer in curbing transmission in this setting.

Bacterial dysentery (BD) brings a major disease burden to developing countries. Exploring the influence of temperature and its interaction with other meteorological factors on BD is significant for the prevention and early warning of BD in the context of climate change. Daily BD cases and meteorological data from 2008 to 2018 were collected in all nine prefecture-level cities in Jilin Province. A one-stage province-level model and a two-stage city-specific multivariate meta-pooled level distributed lag non-linear model were established to explore the correlation between temperature and BD, then the weather-stratified generalised additive model was used to test the interaction. During the study period, a total of 26 971 cases of BD were developed. The one-stage and two-stage cumulative dose-response ‘J’ curves overlapped, and results showed a positive correlation between temperature and BD with a 1–6 days lag effect. Age group ⩾5 years was found to be more sensitive to the effects. Moreover, there was a significant interaction between temperature, humidity and precipitation (P = 0.004, 0.002, respectively) on BD under high temperature (>0 °C), reminding residents and policymakers to pay attention to the prevention of BD in situations with both high temperature and humidity, high temperature and precipitation during the temperate monsoon climate.

We conducted a prospective study about sexually transmitted infections (STIs) knowledge in different populations attending Lyon's University Hospitals in order to estimate awareness on STIs. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)-users (PrEP group), persons living with HIV (PLWH group) and persons undergoing free STI screening (screening group) filled an anonymous questionnaire evaluating STI knowledge. A composite STI knowledge score was calculated and was correlated with patients’ characteristics. A total of 756 patients were enrolled in three groups: screening (n = 509), PrEP (n = 103) and PLWH (n = 144). STI transmission knowledge was better for HIV than for other STIs. The median STI knowledge score was significantly higher in PrEP-users than in the screening and PLWH groups. PrEP use and a previous STI diagnosis were independently associated with a higher score. PrEP-users have better STI knowledge than PLWH and persons undergoing free STI screening. Sexual health promotion interventions routinely reserved to PrEP-users in France seem to be effective in raising the awareness of this group for STIs. Continuous efforts are justified for PLWH and the younger layers of the population.

Antimicrobial resistance is a One Health issue requiring the development of surveillance systems in the human, environmental and animal sectors. In the European Economic Area, the surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in zoonotic pathogens and indicator bacteria in healthy food-producing animals is required legally, while countries are also expected to extend their surveillance to diseased animals in the frame of national action plans. In this context, evaluating existing antimicrobial resistance surveillance systems in animal health is important to improve systems in place, but also to help other countries learn from these experiences, understand success factors and anticipate challenges. With this aim, the French surveillance network for antimicrobial resistance in bacteria from diseased animals (RESAPATH) was evaluated using the Outil d'Analyse des Systèmes d'Information en Santé (OASIS) assessment tool. Key performance factors included (i) a strong and inclusive central institutional organisation defining clear and well-accepted surveillance objectives, scope and procedures, (ii) strong skills in epidemiology and microbiology and (iii) a win–win approach enabling the voluntary participation of 71 field laboratories and where free annual proficiency testing plays a pivotal role. The main area for improvement of RESAPATH was its time-consuming data management system.

Standard server assignment policies for multi-server queueing stations include the noncollaborative policy, where the servers work in parallel on different jobs; and the fully collaborative policy, where the servers work together on the same job. However, if each job can be decomposed into subtasks with no precedence relationships, then we consider a form of server coordination named task assignment where the servers work in parallel on different subtasks of the same job. We identify the task assignment policy that maximizes the long-run average throughput of a queueing station with finite internal buffers when blocked servers can be idled or reassigned to either replace or collaborate with other servers on unblocked subtasks. We then compare the server coordination policies and show that the task assignment is best when the servers are highly specialized; otherwise, the fully collaborative or noncollaborative policies are preferable depending on whether the synergy level among the servers is high or not. We also provide numerical results that quantify our previous comparison. Finally, we address buffer allocation in longer lines where there are precedence relationships between some of the tasks, and present numerical results that suggest our comparisons for one queueing station generalize to longer lines.

In November 2017, eight confirmed measles cases were reported to Public Health England from a hospital in the West Midlands. A multidisciplinary Incident Management Team (IMT) was established to determine the extent of the problem and coordinate an outbreak response. Between 1 November 2017 and 4 June 2018, a total of 116 confirmed and 21 likely measles cases were linked to this outbreak; just under half (43%) were aged over 15 years of age. Fifty-five of the confirmed cases were hospitalised (48%) and no deaths were reported. At the start of the outbreak, cases were mostly individuals of Romanian origin; the outbreak subsequently spread to the wider population. Over the 8-month response, the IMT conducted the following control measures: extensive contact tracing, immediate provision of post-exposure prophylaxis, community engagement amongst specific high-risk groups, MMR awareness raising including catch-up campaigns and enhanced vaccination services at selected GP surgeries. Key challenges to the effective control measures included language difficulties limiting community engagement; delays in diagnosis, notification and appropriate isolation of cases; limited resources for contact tracing across multiple high-risk settings (including GPs and hospitals) and lack of timely data on vaccine coverage in sub-groups of the population to guide public health action.

Although many people became infected and recovered during the COVID-19 epidemic, the immunity duration and re-infection in recovered patients have recently attracted many researchers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the recurrence of the infection in recovered individuals over a 9-month period after the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic. In this study, data related to COVID-19 patients in Shahroud city were collected using the electronic system for registering suspicious patients and also by checking patients' hospital records. In this study, from 20 March 2020 to 20 November 2020 (9 months), a total of 8734 suspected patients with respiratory symptoms were observed and followed up. RT-PCR was positive for 4039 patients. During this period, out of the total number of positive cases of COVID-19, 10 cases became re-infected after complete recovery. The risk of re-infection was 2.5 per thousand (0.95 CI 1.2–4.5). The mean time interval between the first infection and re-infection was 134.4 ± 64.5 days (range 41–234 days). The risk of re-infection between male and females was not statistically different (1.98 per 1000 women and 2.96 per 1000 men). Exposure to COVID-19 may not establish long-term protective immunity to all patients and may predispose them to re-infection. This fact can be reminded that the use of masks, social distancing and other preventive measures are very important in recovered patients and should be emphasised especially in health care personnel who are more exposed to the virus.