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Buoyancy-driven exchange flows in geophysical contexts often exhibit significant interfacial turbulence leading to a partially mixed intermediate layer between two counterflowing layers. In this paper we perform a three-layer hydraulic analysis of such flows, highlighting the dynamical importance of the middle mixed layer. Our analysis is based on the viscous, shallow water, Boussinesq equations and includes the effects of mixing as a non-hydrostatic pressure forcing. We demonstrate the superior predictive accuracy of three-layer hydraulics over the more classical two-layer approach by applying it to direct numerical simulation data in stratified inclined duct exchange flows where turbulence is controlled by a modest slope of the duct. The three-layer model predicts a region bounded by two control points in the middle of the duct, linked to the onset of instability and turbulence, whereas a two-layer model only predicts one control point. We show that the nonlinear characteristics of the three-layer model correspond to linear long waves perturbing a three-layer mean flow. We also provide the first evidence of long-wave resonance, as well as resonance between long and short waves, and their connection to turbulence. These results challenge current parameterisations for turbulent transport, which typically overlook long waves and internal hydraulics induced by streamwise variations of the flow.
Low vitamin D status (circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration < 50 nmol/L) affects nearly one in four Australian adults(1). The primary source of vitamin D is sun exposure; however, a safe level of sun exposure for optimal vitamin D production has not been established. As supplement use is uneven, increasing vitamin D in food is the logical option for improving vitamin D status at a population level. The dietary supply of vitamin D is low since few foods are naturally rich in vitamin D. While there is no Australia-specific estimated average requirement (EAR) for vitamin D, the Institute of Medicine recommends an EAR of 10 μg/day for all ages. Vitamin D intake is low in Australia, with mean usual intake ranging from 1.8–3.2 μg/day across sex/age groups(2), suggesting a need for data-driven nutrition policy to improve the dietary supply of vitamin D. Food fortification has proven effective in other countries. We aimed to model four potential vitamin D fortification scenarios to determine an optimal strategy for Australia. We used food consumption data for people aged ≥ 2 years (n = 12,153) from the 2011–2012 National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey, and analytical food composition data for vitamin D3, 25(OH)D3, vitamin D2 and 25(OH)D2(3). Certain foods are permitted for mandatory or voluntary fortification in Australia. As industry uptake of the voluntary option is low, Scenario 1 simulated addition of the maximum permitted amount of vitamin D to all foods permitted under the Australia New Zealand Food Standards Code (dairy products/plant-based alternatives, edible oil spreads, formulated beverages and permitted ready-to-eat breakfast cereals (RTEBC)). Scenarios 2–4 modelled higher concentrations than those permitted for fluid milk/alternatives (1 μg/100 mL) and edible oil spreads (20 μg/100 g) within an expanding list of food vehicles: Scenario 2—dairy products/alternatives, edible oil spreads, formulated beverages; Scenario 3—Scenario 2 plus RTEBC; Scenario 4—Scenario 3 plus bread (which is not permitted for vitamin D fortification in Australia). Usual intake was modelled for the four scenarios across sex and age groups using the National Cancer Institute Method(4). Assuming equal bioactivity of the D vitamers, the range of mean usual vitamin D intake across age groups for males for Scenarios 1 to 4, respectively, was 7.2–8.8, 6.9–8.3, 8.0–9.7 and 9.3–11.3 μg/day; the respective values for females were 5.8–7.5, 5.8–7.2, 6.4–8.3 and 7.5–9.5 μg/day. No participant exceeded the upper level of intake (80 μg/day) under any scenario. Systematic fortification of all foods permitted for vitamin D fortification could substantially improve vitamin D intake across the population. However, the optimal strategy would require permissions for bread as a food vehicle, and addition of higher than permitted concentrations of vitamin D to fluid milks/alternatives and edible oil spreads.
The World Cancer Research Fund and the American Institute for Cancer Research recommend a plant-based diet to cancer survivors, which may reduce chronic inflammation and excess adiposity associated with worse survival. We investigated associations of plant-based dietary patterns with inflammation biomarkers and body composition in the Pathways Study, in which 3659 women with breast cancer provided validated food frequency questionnaires approximately 2 months after diagnosis. We derived three plant-based diet indices: overall plant-based diet index (PDI), healthful plant-based diet index (hPDI) and unhealthful plant-based diet index (uPDI). We assayed circulating inflammation biomarkers related to systemic inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hsCRP]), pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α) and anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-4, IL-10, IL-13). We estimated areas (cm2) of muscle and visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissue (VAT and SAT) from computed tomography scans. Using multivariable linear regression, we calculated the differences in inflammation biomarkers and body composition for each index. Per 10-point increase for each index: hsCRP was significantly lower by 6·9 % (95 % CI 1·6%, 11·8%) for PDI and 9·0 % (95 % CI 4·9%, 12·8%) for hPDI but significantly higher by 5·4 % (95 % CI 0·5%, 10·5%) for uPDI, and VAT was significantly lower by 7·8 cm2 (95 % CI 2·0 cm2, 13·6 cm2) for PDI and 8·6 cm2 (95 % CI 4·1 cm2, 13·2 cm2) for hPDI but significantly higher by 6·2 cm2 (95 % CI 1·3 cm2, 11·1 cm2) for uPDI. No significant associations were observed for other inflammation biomarkers, muscle, or SAT. A plant-based diet, especially a healthful plant-based diet, may be associated with reduced inflammation and visceral adiposity among breast cancer survivors.
Despite the increased awareness and action towards Equality, Diversity and Inclusion (EDI), the glaciological community still experiences and perpetuates examples of exclusionary and discriminatory behavior. We here discuss the challenges and visions from a group predominantly composed of early-career researchers from the 2023 edition of the Karthaus Summer School on Ice Sheets and Glaciers in the Climate System. This paper presents the results of an EDI-focused workshop that the 36 students and 12 lecturers who attended the summer school actively participated in. We identify common threads from participant responses and distill them into collective visions for the future of the glaciological research community, built on actionable steps toward change. In this paper, we address the following questions that guided the workshop: What do we see as current EDI challenges in the glaciology research community and which improvements would we like to see in the next fifty years? Contributions have been sorted into three main challenges we want and need to face: making glaciology (1) more accessible, (2) more equitable and (3) more responsible.
Tyson Rallens, Tom Lawrence and Nelson Phillips adopt a social-symbolic perspective on strategy work. Thereby, they offer a sorely needed analysis of what strategy work consists of. More specifically, the authors use the social-symbolic approach to illuminate the ‘objects’ that strategy practitioners work on. They identify three types of objects: strategy objects, strategic objects and strategists (as objects). They also explain how this work amounts to programmes of action and how objects of strategy work are embedded in ecologies of social-symbolic objects. They conclude by discussing how this approach can benefit future strategy as practice research and how such work can add to research on social-symbolic work more generally.
This article examines how and why many prominent white supporters of the civil rights movement either ignored or condemned the model of the Reconstruction era. Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, for example, did not publicly mention Reconstruction as part of their efforts to promote civil rights, and in 1957, Hubert Humphrey, the pro–civil rights senator from Minnesota, spoke of “the dark and sad days of Reconstruction.” In contrast, as the article shows, most Black civil rights activists embraced the memory of Reconstruction. At the same time, segregationists frequently referred to and commemorated, albeit negatively, Reconstruction. Indeed, they popularized the idea that the modern civil rights movement was a “Second Reconstruction.” Through an examination of political statements, government documents, opinion columnists, historians, letters to the editor, and other sources, the article traces both the silence and condemnation of Reconstruction on the part of many civil rights supporters.
The problem of comparing two sociometric matrices, as originally discussed by Katz and Powell in the early 1950’s, is reconsidered and generalized using a different inference model. In particular, the proposed indices of conformity are justified by a regression argument similar to the one used by Somers in presenting his well-known measures of asymmetric ordinal association. A permutation distribution and an associated significance test are developed for the specific hypothesis of “no conformity” reinterpreted as a random matching of the rows and (simultaneously) the columns of one sociometric matrix to the rows and columns of a second. The approximate significance tests that are presented and illustrated with a simple numerical example are based on the first two moments of the permutation distribution, or alternatively, on a random sample from the complete distribution.
The “Traveling Salesman” and similar combinatorial programming tasks encountered in operations research are discussed as possible data analysis models in psychology, for example, in developmental scaling, Guttman scaling, profile smoothing, and data array clustering. In addition, a short overview of the various computational approaches from this area of combinatorial optimization is included.
Traditional approaches for evaluating the impact of scientific research – mainly scholarship (i.e., publications, presentations) and grant funding – fail to capture the full extent of contributions that come from larger scientific initiatives. The Translational Science Benefits Model (TSBM) was developed to support more comprehensive evaluations of scientific endeavors, especially research designed to translate scientific discoveries into innovations in clinical or public health practice and policy-level changes. Here, we present the domains of the TSBM, including how it was expanded by researchers within the Implementation Science Centers in Cancer Control (ISC3) program supported by the National Cancer Institute. Next, we describe five studies supported by the Penn ISC3, each focused on testing implementation strategies informed by behavioral economics to reduce key practice gaps in the context of cancer care and identify how each study yields broader impacts consistent with TSBM domains. These indicators include Capacity Building, Methods Development (within the Implementation Field) and Rapid Cycle Approaches, implementing Software Technologies, and improving Health Care Delivery and Health Care Accessibility. The examples highlighted here can help guide other similar scientific initiatives to conceive and measure broader scientific impact to fully articulate the translation and effects of their work at the population level.
A clinical tool to estimate the risk of treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) in people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) would inform early detection of TRS and overcome the delay of up to 5 years in starting TRS medication.
Aims
To develop and evaluate a model that could predict the risk of TRS in routine clinical practice.
Method
We used data from two UK-based FEP cohorts (GAP and AESOP-10) to develop and internally validate a prognostic model that supports identification of patients at high-risk of TRS soon after FEP diagnosis. Using sociodemographic and clinical predictors, a model for predicting risk of TRS was developed based on penalised logistic regression, with missing data handled using multiple imputation. Internal validation was undertaken via bootstrapping, obtaining optimism-adjusted estimates of the model's performance. Interviews and focus groups with clinicians were conducted to establish clinically relevant risk thresholds and understand the acceptability and perceived utility of the model.
Results
We included seven factors in the prediction model that are predominantly assessed in clinical practice in patients with FEP. The model predicted treatment resistance among the 1081 patients with reasonable accuracy; the model's C-statistic was 0.727 (95% CI 0.723–0.732) prior to shrinkage and 0.687 after adjustment for optimism. Calibration was good (expected/observed ratio: 0.999; calibration-in-the-large: 0.000584) after adjustment for optimism.
Conclusions
We developed and internally validated a prediction model with reasonably good predictive metrics. Clinicians, patients and carers were involved in the development process. External validation of the tool is needed followed by co-design methodology to support implementation in early intervention services.
This symposium Article describes how prison abolitionist arguments also support the hypothesis that a defining goal of health law should be the abolition of hospitals. Like prison abolitionism, the hospital abolition hypothesis can provide a constructive way to shift the focus of legal analysis from substantive dimensions (in health law — cost, quality, access, and equity) to the dimension of power.
Understanding disease-modifying therapy (DMT) use and healthcare resource utilization by different geographical areas among people living with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) may identify care gaps that can be used to inform policies and practice to ensure equitable care.
Methods:
Administrative data was used to identify pwMS on April 1, 2017 (index date) in Alberta. DMT use and healthcare resource utilization were compared between those who resided in various geographical areas over a 2-year post-index period; simple logistic regression was applied.
Results:
Among the cohort (n = 12,338), a higher proportion of pwMS who resided in urban areas (versus rural) received ≥ 1 DMT dispensation (32.3% versus 27.4%), had a neurologist (67.7% versus 63.9%), non-neurologist specialist (88.3% versus 82.9%), ambulatory care visit (87.4% versus 85.3%), and MS tertiary clinic visit (59.2% versus 51.7%), and a lower proportion had an emergency department (ED) visit (46.3% versus 62.4%), and hospitalization (20.4% versus 23.0%). Across the provincial health zones, there were variations in DMT selection, and a higher proportion of pwMS who resided in the Calgary health zone, where care is managed by MS tertiary clinic neurologists, had an outpatient visit to a neurologist or MS tertiary clinic versus those who resided in other zones where delivery of MS-related care is more varied.
Conclusions:
Urban/rural inequalities in DMT use and healthcare resource utilization appear to exist among pwMS in Alberta. Findings suggest the exploration of barriers with consequent strategies to increase access to DMTs and provide timely outpatient MS care management, particularly for those pwMS residing in rural areas.
Recent research has shown the potential of speleothem δ13C to record a range of environmental processes. Here, we report on 230Th-dated stalagmite δ13C records for southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, over the last 40,000 yr to investigate the relationship between tropical vegetation productivity and atmospheric methane concentrations. We demonstrate that the Sulawesi stalagmite δ13C record is driven by changes in vegetation productivity and soil respiration and explore the link between soil respiration and tropical methane emissions using HadCM3 and the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. The model indicates that changes in soil respiration are primarily driven by changes in temperature and CO2, in line with our interpretation of stalagmite δ13C. In turn, modelled methane emissions are driven by soil respiration, providing a mechanism that links methane to stalagmite δ13C. This relationship is particularly strong during the last glaciation, indicating a key role for the tropics in controlling atmospheric methane when emissions from high-latitude boreal wetlands were suppressed. With further investigation, the link between δ13C in stalagmites and tropical methane could provide a low-latitude proxy complementary to polar ice core records to improve our understanding of the glacial–interglacial methane budget.
The stratified inclined duct (SID) sustains an exchange flow in a long, gently sloping duct as a model for continuously forced density-stratified flows such as those found in estuaries. Experiments have shown that the emergence of interfacial waves and their transition to turbulence as the tilt angle is increased appears to be linked to a threshold in the exchange flow rate given by inviscid two-layer hydraulics. We uncover these hydraulic mechanisms by (i) using recent direct numerical simulations (DNS) providing full flow data in the key flow regimes (Zhu et al., J. Fluid Mech., vol. 969, 2023, A20), (ii) averaging these DNS into two layers, and (iii) using an inviscid two-layer shallow-water and instability theory to diagnose interfacial wave behaviour and provide physical insight. The laminar flow is subcritical and stable throughout the duct and hydraulically controlled at the ends of the duct. As the tilt is increased, the flow becomes supercritical everywhere and unstable to long waves. An internal jump featuring stationary waves first appears near the centre of the duct, then leads to larger-amplitude travelling waves, and to stronger jumps, wave breaking and intermittent turbulence at the largest tilt angle. Long waves described by the (nonlinear) shallow-water equation are interpreted locally as linear waves on a two-layer parallel base flow described by the Taylor–Goldstein equation. This link helps us to interpret long-wave instability and contrast it with short-wave (e.g. Kelvin–Helmholtz) instability. Our results suggest a transition to turbulence in SID through long-wave instability relying on vertical confinement by the top and bottom walls.
The fiscal system of the United States exacerbated the COVID-19 pandemic. The United States makes decisions about how to allocate resources using a fiscal system that assumes a baseline of private ownership from which Congress may depart by generating “revenue” and appropriating funds to the executive branch to spend for a specific purpose. This chapter describes three aspects of this allocative framework that contributed to the country’s tragic failure to meet the coronavirus challenge. First, scorekeeping, the process for predicting what legislation will “cost” and what it will “save” to meet the political desire to minimize the need to borrow. A decade before the coronavirus pandemic the Affordable Care Act created a significant “Prevention and Public Health Fund,” but as Professor Westmoreland first documented, Congressional scorekeeping rules that treat preventive investment as worthless encouraged Congress to “raid” the fund to spend on purposes other than public health, which it did. Second, Congress’ reliance on short-term appropriations to retain influence over the executive branch. Although essential to the separation of powers, the parasitic power of the purse and its insistence on short-term spending packages repeatedly stymied and hobbled federal relief with short-, medium-, and long-term impacts on the nation’s health and economic wellbeing. Third, the executive’s asymmetric discretion over spending. The president’s discretion to refuse to spend made it possible for President Trump to frustrate the efforts of Congress to continue the country’s support for the World Health Organization by declining to allocate appropriated funds for the organization in the midst of the pandemic.
Vaccination against hepatitis B virus (HBV) is effective at preventing vertical transmission. Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea are hyperendemic West African countries; yet, childhood vaccination coverage is suboptimal, and the determinants of incomplete vaccination are poorly understood. We analyzed national survey data (2018–2020) of children aged 4–35 months to assess complete HBV vaccination (receiving 3 doses of the pentavalent vaccine) and incomplete vaccination (receiving <3 doses). Statistical analysis was conducted using the complex sample command in SPSS (version 28). Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify determinants of incomplete immunization. Overall, 11,181 mothers were analyzed (4,846 from Sierra Leone, 2,788 from Liberia, and 3,547 from Guinea). Sierra Leone had the highest HBV childhood vaccination coverage (70.3%), followed by Liberia (64.6%) and Guinea (39.3%). Within countries, HBV vaccination coverage varied by socioeconomic characteristics and healthcare access. In multivariate regression analysis, factors that were significantly associated with incomplete vaccination in at least one country included sex of the child, Muslim mothers, lower household wealth index, <4 antenatal visits, home delivery, and distance to health facility vaccination (all p < 0.05). Understanding and addressing modifiable determinants of incomplete vaccination will be essential to help achieve the 2030 viral hepatitis elimination goals.
Bipolar disorder (BD) is an overarching diagnostic class defined by the presence of at least one prior manic episode (BD I) or both a prior hypomanic episode and a prior depressive episode (BD II). Traditionally, BD II has been conceptualized as a less severe presentation of BD I, however, extant literature to investigate this claim has been mixed.
Methods
We apply genomic structural equation modeling (Genomic SEM) to investigate divergent genetic pathways across BD's two major subtypes using the most recent GWAS summary statistics from the PGC. We begin by identifying divergences in genetic correlations across 98 external traits using a Bonferroni-corrected threshold. We also use a theoretically informed follow-up model to examine the extent to which the genetic variance in each subtype is explained by schizophrenia and major depression. Lastly, transcriptome-wide SEM (T-SEM) was used to identify neuronal gene expression patterns associated with BD subtypes.
Results
BD II was characterized by significantly larger genetic overlap across non-psychiatric medical and internalizing traits (e.g. heart disease, neuroticism, insomnia), while stronger associations for BD I were absent. Consistent with these findings, follow-up modeling revealed a substantial major depression component for BD II. T-SEM results revealed 35 unique genes associated with shared risk across BD subtypes.
Conclusions
Divergent patterns of genetic relationships across external traits provide support for the distinction of the bipolar subtypes. However, our results also challenge the illness severity conceptualization of BD given stronger genetic overlap across BD II and a range of clinically relevant traits and disorders.
Knowledge graphs have become a common approach for knowledge representation. Yet, the application of graph methodology is elusive due to the sheer number and complexity of knowledge sources. In addition, semantic incompatibilities hinder efforts to harmonize and integrate across these diverse sources. As part of The Biomedical Translator Consortium, we have developed a knowledge graph–based question-answering system designed to augment human reasoning and accelerate translational scientific discovery: the Translator system. We have applied the Translator system to answer biomedical questions in the context of a broad array of diseases and syndromes, including Fanconi anemia, primary ciliary dyskinesia, multiple sclerosis, and others. A variety of collaborative approaches have been used to research and develop the Translator system. One recent approach involved the establishment of a monthly “Question-of-the-Month (QotM) Challenge” series. Herein, we describe the structure of the QotM Challenge; the six challenges that have been conducted to date on drug-induced liver injury, cannabidiol toxicity, coronavirus infection, diabetes, psoriatic arthritis, and ATP1A3-related phenotypes; the scientific insights that have been gleaned during the challenges; and the technical issues that were identified over the course of the challenges and that can now be addressed to foster further development of the prototype Translator system. We close with a discussion on Large Language Models such as ChatGPT and highlight differences between those models and the Translator system.