A considerable knowledge gap exists in relation to the presence and even existence of seagrass within Northern Ireland’s waters. Peer-reviewed publications on the historical ecology of seagrass are scarce and a collated timeline of references directly focusing on Northern Irish seagrasses does not exist. Recognising abiotic and biotic induced environmental change within key marine features such as seagrass is vital when attempting to measure the biodiversity and carbon sequestration services they provide. The research undertaken during this study identified three distinct periods within the archival records, which could be matched to the ecological history of seagrass in Northern Ireland. The first period (extensive and dense seagrass meadows from 1790 to 1880) was characterised by extensive seagrass meadows which were dense and healthy. The second period (degradation from 1880 to 1940) saw the beginnings of decline in seagrass from the 1790s, initially from anthropogenic influences and later from the seagrass wasting disease) and the final period (signs of recovery from 1940 to present day) showed small amounts of local regrowth of seagrass but at far reduced densities compared to the historical baseline described. These three defined periods all delivered varying degrees of anthropogenic stressors which determined the conservational health of seagrass in Northern Ireland. Seagrass habitats have become integral components in future-proofing the coastal marine environment against the effects of climate change and its associated impacts. Therefore, it is envisaged that the historical baseline that this manuscript provides will greatly benefit habitat managers in protecting, repairing, and restoring lost seagrass meadows.

This study presents the first documented observations of a brachyuran crab's proactive fishing behaviour in conjunction with mangrove pneumatophores which are employed as prey-localization devices. All ecological data were recorded in situ using simple behavioural observations, visual census and field experiments. Field experiments were based on stimulus-response and ecological surveys on random displacement. Assemblages of Metopograpsus messor were observed daily performing a foraging/predatory tide-related cyclic behaviour pattern in an arid mangrove ecosystem which experiences challenging environmental conditions. Prey-localizing behaviour was observed during the flood tide when pneumatophore-borne vibrations were used to identify potential prey. The prey simulation field experiment (where a single pneumatophore was stimulated by knocking) showed that in >93% of instances a crab approached the exact pneumatophore being stimulated. As water levels increased during the tidal cycle M. messor was observed climbing pneumatophores. The crabs anchored themselves to the pneumatophore just above the water level with their pereiopods. The chelipeds were positioned in a pincher-like trap, and remained in a ‘capture-position’ waiting for prey to move within striking range. This characteristic fishing behaviour was performed daily by a population of M. messor. Ecological observations suggest that both these predatory behaviours are associated with the fish Aphanius dispar dispar in a direct prey–predator relation. Evidence suggests that these fishing behaviours evolved due to characteristics within the M. messor phylogeny (foraging in intertidal zones; daily displacement following tidal levels; high sensitivity to vibrations; and an opportunist diet) and its associated environment (presence of pneumatophores and high availability of a fish resource).

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: To create a composite index, referred to as the Pediatric Hydrocephalus Severity Index (PHSI), to classify the severity of disease at baseline and predict outcomes among children treated for hydrocephalus. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The Hydrocephalus Outcome Questionnaire will be administered in person or online to the parents of 150 patients between the ages of 5 and 18 years who are followed at the Neurosurgery Clinic at St. Louis Children’s Hospital for hydrocephalus. Patients must have been diagnosed and treated for hydrocephalus at least 6 months prior to the survey date. Potential participants are excluded if their health status changed during the 4 weeks prior to survey date, as determined by the child’s parents. Potential risk factors (see anticipated results) will be identified on retrospective medical record review. We will create a clinical prediction rule, called the PHSI, to stratify patients on likelihood of experiencing a poor long-term outcome after surgical treatment. Participants will be classified as “good” or “poor” outcome based on thresholds set for questionnaire results. We will use a combination of bivariate analysis and clinical reasoning to restrict the number of factors for further analysis, and multivariate logistic regression to build a predictive model for poor outcome. Creation of the PHSI will involve assigning integer values to adjusted odds ratios for significant risk factors at a 95% confidence level. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Risk factors that we anticipate will be predictive of long-term clinical outcome include signs and symptoms at onset (bulging fontanel, splayed sutures, papilledema, up-gaze palsy, headache, vomiting, lethargy), head circumference above the 97th percentile, frontal-occipital horn ratio greater than 0.4, etiology of meningitis or neonatal intraventricular hemorrhage, central nervous system comorbidities (seizures, Chiari malformation, scoliosis, periventricular leukomalacia), preoperative infection or sepsis, and frequent shunt revisions or infections. We hypothesize that a PHSI will be a valuable tool for stratifying patients in future research studies, as well as aiding prognosis in clinical situations. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: A validated composite PHSI would be a major advance in clinical hydrocephalus research and practice. A PHSI would allow investigators to stratify patients based on initial presentation for clinical research studies, which may in turn lead to the establishment of more standardized treatment guidelines. It would also facilitate studies investigating differential utilization of healthcare resources based on disease severity. Clinically, a PHSI would better equip physicians to counsel parents on what to expect for their child or future healthcare resource requirements.

This is the first of three papers in which we give a moduli interpretation of the second flip in the log minimal model program for $\overline{M}_{g}$ , replacing the locus of curves with a genus  $2$ Weierstrass tail by a locus of curves with a ramphoid cusp. In this paper, for $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FC}\in (2/3-\unicode[STIX]{x1D716},2/3+\unicode[STIX]{x1D716})$ , we introduce new $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FC}$ -stability conditions for curves and prove that they are deformation open. This yields algebraic stacks $\overline{{\mathcal{M}}}_{g}(\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FC})$ related by open immersions $\overline{{\mathcal{M}}}_{g}(2/3+\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}){\hookrightarrow}\overline{{\mathcal{M}}}_{g}(2/3){\hookleftarrow}\overline{{\mathcal{M}}}_{g}(2/3-\unicode[STIX]{x1D716})$ . We prove that around a curve $C$ corresponding to a closed point in $\overline{{\mathcal{M}}}_{g}(2/3)$ , these open immersions are locally modeled by variation of geometric invariant theory for the action of $\text{Aut}(C)$ on the first-order deformation space of $C$ .

We prove a general criterion for an algebraic stack to admit a good moduli space. This result may be considered as a generalization of the Keel–Mori theorem, which guarantees the existence of a coarse moduli space for a separated Deligne–Mumford stack. We apply this result to prove that the moduli stacks $\overline{{\mathcal{M}}}_{g,n}(\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FC})$ parameterizing $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FC}$ -stable curves introduced in [J. Alper et al., Second flip in the Hassett–Keel program: a local description, Compositio Math. 153 (2017), 1547–1583] admit good moduli spaces.

Climatic fluctuation is often cited as a major factor in the collapse of Maya civilisation during the Terminal Classic Period (e.g. Luzzadder-Beach et al.2016). Evidence of how people dealt or failed to deal with it has only recently become a more widespread focus for archaeologists. Investigations at Xcoch in the Puuc Hills show the various ways in which resident populations sought to manage water stores when faced with a climate prone to drought and other meteorological extremes. The study also presents results from the analysis of nearby speleothem laminae, which indicate that severe episodes of flooding and droughts may have contributed to a collapse in the population around AD 850.

A series of editorials in this Journal have argued that psychiatry is in the midst of a crisis. The various solutions proposed would all involve a strengthening of psychiatry's identity as essentially ‘applied neuroscience’. Although not discounting the importance of the brain sciences and psychopharmacology, we argue that psychiatry needs to move beyond the dominance of the current, technological paradigm. This would be more in keeping with the evidence about how positive outcomes are achieved and could also serve to foster more meaningful collaboration with the growing service user movement.

We prove that the moduli spaces of n-pointed m-stable curves introduced in our previous paper have projective coarse moduli. We use the resulting spaces to run an analogue of Hassett’s log minimal model program for .

We introduce a sequence of isolated curve singularities, the elliptic m-fold points, and an associated sequence of stability conditions, generalizing the usual definition of Deligne–Mumford stability. For every pair of integers 1≤m<n, we prove that the moduli problem of n-pointed m-stable curves of arithmetic genus one is representable by a proper irreducible Deligne–Mumford stack . We also consider weighted variants of these stability conditions, and construct the corresponding moduli stacks . In forthcoming work, we will prove that these stacks have projective coarse moduli and use the resulting spaces to give a complete description of the log minimal model program for .