We consider general discrete-time multitype branching processes on a countable set X. According to these processes, a particle of type $x\in X$ generates a random number of children and chooses their type in X, not necessarily independently nor with the same law for different parent types. We introduce a new type of stochastic ordering of multitype branching processes, generalising the germ order introduced by Hutchcroft, which relies on the generating function of the process. We prove that given two multitype branching processes with laws ${\boldsymbol{\mu}}$ and ${\boldsymbol{\nu}}$ respectively, with ${\boldsymbol{\mu}}\ge{\boldsymbol{\nu}}$, then in every set where there is survival according to ${\boldsymbol{\nu}}$, there is also survival according to ${\boldsymbol{\mu}}$. Moreover, in every set where there is strong survival according to ${\boldsymbol{\nu}}$, there is also strong survival according to ${\boldsymbol{\mu}}$, provided that the supremum of the global extinction probabilities for the ${\boldsymbol{\nu}}$ process, taken over all starting points x, is strictly smaller than 1. New conditions for survival and strong survival for inhomogeneous multitype branching processes are provided. We also extend a result of Moyal which claims that, under some conditions, the global extinction probability for a multitype branching process is the only fixed point of its generating function, whose supremum over all starting coordinates may be smaller than 1.

It is well known that any higher-order Markov chain can be associated with a first-order Markov chain. In this primarily expository article, we present the first fairly comprehensive analysis of the relationship between higher-order and first-order Markov chains, together with illustrative examples. Our main objective is to address the central question as posed in the title.

For Markov chains and Markov processes exhibiting a form of stochastic monotonicity (higher states have higher transition probabilities in terms of stochastic dominance), stability and ergodicity results can be obtained with the use of order-theoretic mixing conditions. We complement these results by providing quantitative bounds on deviations between distributions. We also show that well-known total variation bounds can be recovered as a special case.

In this paper, we introduce a new technique to study the distribution in residue classes of sets of integers with digit and sum-of-digits restrictions. From our main theorem, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition for integers with missing digits to be uniformly distributed in arithmetic progressions, extending previous results going back to the work of Erdős, Mauduit and Sárközy. Our approach uses Markov chains and does not rely on Fourier analysis as many results of this nature do. Our results apply more generally to the class of multiplicatively invariant sets of integers. This class, defined by Glasscock, Moreira and Richter using symbolic dynamics, is an integer analogue to fractal sets and includes all missing digits sets. We address uniform distribution in this setting, partially answering an open question posed by the same authors.

We investigate a specific class of irreducible, level-dependent, discrete-time, GI/M/1-type Markov chains. The transition matrices possess a block lower-Hessenberg structure, which shows asymptotic convergence along the rows as the level approaches infinity. Criteria are presented for recurrence, transience, positive recurrence, geometric ergodicity, and geometric transience in terms of elements of the transition matrices. These criteria are established by employing drift functions and matrix-generating functions. Furthermore, we discuss the extension of the main results to the continuous-time case.

We show that the Potts model on a graph can be approximated by a sequence of independent and identically distributed spins in terms of Wasserstein distance at high temperatures. We prove a similar result for the Curie–Weiss–Potts model on the complete graph, conditioned on being close enough to any of its equilibrium macrostates, in the low-temperature regime. Our proof technique is based on Stein’s method for comparing the stationary distributions of two Glauber dynamics with similar updates, one of which is rapid mixing and contracting on a subset of the state space. Along the way, we prove a new upper bound on the mixing time of the Glauber dynamics for the conditional measure of the Curie–Weiss–Potts model near an equilibrium macrostate.

The hard-core model has as its configurations the independent sets of some graph instance $G$. The probability distribution on independent sets is controlled by a ‘fugacity’ $\lambda \gt 0$, with higher $\lambda$ leading to denser configurations. We investigate the mixing time of Glauber (single-site) dynamics for the hard-core model on restricted classes of bounded-degree graphs in which a particular graph $H$ is excluded as an induced subgraph. If $H$ is a subdivided claw then, for all $\lambda$, the mixing time is $O(n\log n)$, where $n$ is the order of $G$. This extends a result of Chen and Gu for claw-free graphs. When $H$ is a path, the set of possible instances is finite. For all other $H$, the mixing time is exponential in $n$ for sufficiently large $\lambda$, depending on $H$ and the maximum degree of $G$.

We show that on every affine Weyl group natural random walks are noise sensitive in total variation.

We consider the problem of sequential matching in a stochastic block model with several classes of nodes and generic compatibility constraints. When the probabilities of connections do not scale with the size of the graph, we show that under the Ncond condition, a simple max-weight type policy allows us to attain an asymptotically perfect matching while no sequential algorithm attains perfect matching otherwise. The proof relies on a specific Markovian representation of the dynamics associated with Lyapunov techniques.

The gambler’s ruin problem for correlated random walks (CRWs), both with and without delays, is addressed using the optional stopping theorem for martingales. We derive closed-form expressions for the ruin probabilities and the expected game duration for CRWs with increments $\{1,-1\}$ and for symmetric CRWs with increments $\{1,0,-1\}$ (CRWs with delays). Additionally, a martingale technique is developed for general CRWs with delays. The gambler’s ruin probability for a game involving bets on two arbitrary patterns is also examined.

In their celebrated paper [CLR10], Caputo, Liggett and Richthammer proved Aldous’ conjecture and showed that for an arbitrary finite graph, the spectral gap of the interchange process is equal to the spectral gap of the underlying random walk. A crucial ingredient in the proof was the Octopus Inequality — a certain inequality of operators in the group ring $\mathbb{R}\left[{\mathrm{Sym}}_{n}\right]$ of the symmetric group. Here we generalise the Octopus Inequality and apply it to generalising the Caputo–Liggett–Richthammer Theorem to certain hypergraphs, proving some cases of a conjecture of Caputo.

We show that for $\lambda\in[0,{m_1}/({1+\sqrt{1-{1}/{m_1}}})]$, the biased random walk’s speed on a Galton–Watson tree without leaves is strictly decreasing, where $m_1\geq 2$. Our result extends the monotonic interval of the speed on a Galton–Watson tree.

This paper characterizes irreducible phase-type representations for exponential distributions. Bean and Green (2000) gave a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for a phase-type distribution with an irreducible generator matrix to be exponential. We extend these conditions to irreducible representations, and we thus give a characterization of all irreducible phase-type representations for exponential distributions. We consider the results in relation to time-reversal of phase-type distributions, PH-simplicity, and the algebraic degree of a phase-type distribution, and we give applications of the results. In particular we give the conditions under which a Coxian distribution becomes exponential, and we construct bivariate exponential distributions. Finally, we translate the main findings to the discrete case of geometric distributions.

We consider the hard-core model on a finite square grid graph with stochastic Glauber dynamics parametrized by the inverse temperature $\beta$. We investigate how the transition between its two maximum-occupancy configurations takes place in the low-temperature regime $\beta \to \infty$ in the case of periodic boundary conditions. The hard-core constraints and the grid symmetry make the structure of the critical configurations for this transition, also known as essential saddles, very rich and complex. We provide a comprehensive geometrical characterization of these configurations that together constitute a bottleneck for the Glauber dynamics in the low-temperature limit. In particular, we develop a novel isoperimetric inequality for hard-core configurations with a fixed number of particles and show how the essential saddles are characterized not only by the number of particles but also their geometry.

The embedding problem of Markov chains examines whether a stochastic matrix$\mathbf{P} $ can arise as the transition matrix from time 0 to time 1 of a continuous-time Markov chain. When the chain is homogeneous, it checks if $ \mathbf{P}=\exp{\mathbf{Q}}$ for a rate matrix $ \mathbf{Q}$ with zero row sums and non-negative off-diagonal elements, called a Markov generator. It is known that a Markov generator may not always exist or be unique. This paper addresses finding $ \mathbf{Q}$, assuming that the process has at most one jump per unit time interval, and focuses on the problem of aligning the conditional one-jump transition matrix from time 0 to time 1 with $ \mathbf{P}$. We derive a formula for this matrix in terms of $ \mathbf{Q}$ and establish that for any $ \mathbf{P}$ with non-zero diagonal entries, a unique $ \mathbf{Q}$, called the ${\unicode{x1D7D9}}$-generator, exists. We compare the ${\unicode{x1D7D9}}$-generator with the one-jump rate matrix from Jarrow, Lando, and Turnbull (1997), showing which is a better approximate Markov generator of $ \mathbf{P}$ in some practical cases.

We consider the performance of Glauber dynamics for the random cluster model with real parameter $q\gt 1$ and temperature $\beta \gt 0$. Recent work by Helmuth, Jenssen, and Perkins detailed the ordered/disordered transition of the model on random $\Delta$-regular graphs for all sufficiently large $q$ and obtained an efficient sampling algorithm for all temperatures $\beta$ using cluster expansion methods. Despite this major progress, the performance of natural Markov chains, including Glauber dynamics, is not yet well understood on the random regular graph, partly because of the non-local nature of the model (especially at low temperatures) and partly because of severe bottleneck phenomena that emerge in a window around the ordered/disordered transition. Nevertheless, it is widely conjectured that the bottleneck phenomena that impede mixing from worst-case starting configurations can be avoided by initialising the chain more judiciously. Our main result establishes this conjecture for all sufficiently large $q$ (with respect to $\Delta$). Specifically, we consider the mixing time of Glauber dynamics initialised from the two extreme configurations, the all-in and all-out, and obtain a pair of fast mixing bounds which cover all temperatures $\beta$, including in particular the bottleneck window. Our result is inspired by the recent approach of Gheissari and Sinclair for the Ising model who obtained a similar flavoured mixing-time bound on the random regular graph for sufficiently low temperatures. To cover all temperatures in the RC model, we refine appropriately the structural results of Helmuth, Jenssen and Perkins about the ordered/disordered transition and show spatial mixing properties ‘within the phase’, which are then related to the evolution of the chain.

We study the mixing time of the single-site update Markov chain, known as the Glauber dynamics, for generating a random independent set of a tree. Our focus is obtaining optimal convergence results for arbitrary trees. We consider the more general problem of sampling from the Gibbs distribution in the hard-core model where independent sets are weighted by a parameter $\lambda \gt 0$; the special case $\lambda =1$ corresponds to the uniform distribution over all independent sets. Previous work of Martinelli, Sinclair and Weitz (2004) obtained optimal mixing time bounds for the complete $\Delta$-regular tree for all $\lambda$. However, Restrepo, Stefankovic, Vera, Vigoda, and Yang (2014) showed that for sufficiently large $\lambda$ there are bounded-degree trees where optimal mixing does not hold. Recent work of Eppstein and Frishberg (2022) proved a polynomial mixing time bound for the Glauber dynamics for arbitrary trees, and more generally for graphs of bounded tree-width.

We establish an optimal bound on the relaxation time (i.e., inverse spectral gap) of $O(n)$ for the Glauber dynamics for unweighted independent sets on arbitrary trees. We stress that our results hold for arbitrary trees and there is no dependence on the maximum degree $\Delta$. Interestingly, our results extend (far) beyond the uniqueness threshold which is on the order $\lambda =O(1/\Delta )$. Our proof approach is inspired by recent work on spectral independence. In fact, we prove that spectral independence holds with a constant independent of the maximum degree for any tree, but this does not imply mixing for general trees as the optimal mixing results of Chen, Liu, and Vigoda (2021) only apply for bounded-degree graphs. We instead utilize the combinatorial nature of independent sets to directly prove approximate tensorization of variance via a non-trivial inductive proof.

We consider linear-fractional branching processes (one-type and two-type) with immigration in varying environments. For $n\ge0$, let $Z_n$ count the number of individuals of the nth generation, which excludes the immigrant who enters the system at time n. We call n a regeneration time if $Z_n=0$. For both the one-type and two-type cases, we give criteria for the finiteness or infiniteness of the number of regeneration times. We then construct some concrete examples to exhibit the strange phenomena caused by the so-called varying environments. For example, it may happen that the process is extinct, but there are only finitely many regeneration times. We also study the asymptotics of the number of regeneration times of the model in the example.

For a partially specified stochastic matrix, we consider the problem of completing it so as to minimize Kemeny’s constant. We prove that for any partially specified stochastic matrix for which the problem is well defined, there is a minimizing completion that is as sparse as possible. We also find the minimum value of Kemeny’s constant in two special cases: when the diagonal has been specified and when all specified entries lie in a common row.

We review criteria for comparing the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with respect to the asymptotic variance of estimates of expectations of functions of state, and show how such criteria can justify ways of combining improvements to MCMC methods. We say that a chain on a finite state space with transition matrix P efficiency-dominates one with transition matrix Q if for every function of state it has lower (or equal) asymptotic variance. We give elementary proofs of some previous results regarding efficiency dominance, leading to a self-contained demonstration that a reversible chain with transition matrix P efficiency-dominates a reversible chain with transition matrix Q if and only if none of the eigenvalues of $Q-P$ are negative. This allows us to conclude that modifying a reversible MCMC method to improve its efficiency will also improve the efficiency of a method that randomly chooses either this or some other reversible method, and to conclude that improving the efficiency of a reversible update for one component of state (as in Gibbs sampling) will improve the overall efficiency of a reversible method that combines this and other updates. It also explains how antithetic MCMC can be more efficient than independent and identically distributed sampling. We also establish conditions that can guarantee that a method is not efficiency-dominated by any other method.