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Childhood traumas increase the risk of psychosis and voice-hearing. While trauma profiles have been identified in voice-hearers, pathways linking these to voice-related distress remain unclear. This study examined between-group differences in mediation by psychological and behavioral variables in profile–distress associations, with potential moderation by gender.
Methods
This cross-sectional study derived childhood trauma profiles via latent class analysis of Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) scores from 266 voice-hearing Challenge trial participants with schizophrenia-spectrum diagnoses. Mediation analyses (structural equation modeling with bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals for indirect effects) tested between-group differences in indirect effects of negative voice content, persecutory beliefs about voices, voice power, voice relating style, negative self/other beliefs, emotion regulation, depression, and sleep disturbances in the association between childhood trauma profiles (exposure) and voice-related distress (outcome), with gender as a moderator. Hypotheses were preregistered on the Open Science Framework. Reporting followed AGReMA-guidelines.
Results
Three childhood trauma profiles were established: (1) ‘variable severity’ (n = 160), (2) ‘severe neglect and emotional abuse’ (n = 84), and (3) ‘severe poly-trauma’ (n = 22). Significant between-group differences in indirect effects were observed for persecutory beliefs about voices (1 < 3), voice power (1 < 3), and sleep disturbances (1 < 2). Age-adjustment revealed a between-group difference in indirect effect of negative self-beliefs (1 < 3). No moderation by gender was found.
Conclusions
This is the first investigation of mediators and moderators of childhood trauma profiles and voice-related distress in clinical voice-hearers. Findings suggest that trauma profiles may provide indicators of mediators potentially relevant to inform individualized formulation and therapy planning.
This study examined the relationship between climate change awareness and belief in disaster preparedness among university students and explored the mediating role of social media use purposes.
Methods
A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 418 university students. Data were collected using validated scales measuring climate change awareness, disaster preparedness belief, and social media use purposes. Pearson correlation, multiple linear regression, and bootstrap-based mediation analysis (PROCESS Macro Model 4) were performed.
Results
Climate change awareness was positively associated with both social media use purposes (r = .322, P < 0.001) and disaster preparedness belief (r = .307, P < 0.001). Regression analysis showed that climate change awareness (B = 0.185, P < 0.001) and social media use purposes (B = 0.243, P < 0.001) significantly predicted disaster preparedness belief. Mediation analysis indicated that social media use purposes partially mediated the relationship between climate change awareness and preparedness belief.
Conclusion
Higher climate change awareness was associated with stronger disaster preparedness beliefs among university students. Social media use purposes partially mediate this relationship and function as a complementary digital mechanism linking climate awareness to preparedness beliefs
This study aims to address a critical gap in literature by examining the mediating role of coping strategies in the relationship between mental health issues and food addiction among university students, contributing to the understanding of how stress management mechanisms affect addictive eating behaviours during this vulnerable period. A cross-sectional, quantitative study was conducted with 1947 students enrolled at a university in Istanbul during the 2024–2025 academic year. Data were collected online, using a Personal Information Form, the Depression-Anxiety-Stress-21 Scale (DASS-21), the Coping Orientation to Problems Experienced Inventory (Brief COPE) and the Modified Yale Food Addiction Scale 2.0 (mYFAS 2.0). Data were analysed using Pearson’s correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis and PROCESS Macro Model 4. Moderate, positive and statistically significant correlations were observed between depression, anxiety and stress levels and food addiction (r = 0·398–0·417; P < 0·001). Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that mental health issues explained 20·8 % of the variance in food addiction scores. Mediation analyses indicated that adaptive coping strategies (e.g. humour, acceptance and using instrumental social support) and maladaptive coping strategies (e.g. restraint coping, behavioural disengagement and suppression of competing activities) significantly mediated the relationship between mental health issues and food addiction. Mental health issues represent a substantial risk factor for food addiction among university students in metropolitan areas, influenced by their coping strategies. Promoting adaptive coping strategies and reducing maladaptive ones are essential for preventing food addiction. These findings underscore the need to integrate psychological support and stress management into intervention programmes targeting university students.
Models with multiple equations rather than a single equation are the subject of Chapter 4. It covers model specification, implied moments, model identification, model estimation, and model interpretation, fit, and diagnostics in the context of such models. The consequences of measurement error and the treatment of mediation effects are part of the chapter. Finally, the chapter compares simultaneous equation models and Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs).
Chronic pain represents a major global public health issue. It is associated with wide-ranging psychosocial consequences. Extensive evidence has demonstrated that pain catastrophizing (PC) contributes to the bidirectional association between chronic pain and psychological distress. The present study aims to explore the psychological and cognitive correlates of chronic pain among individuals living in Gaza.
Methods
A cross-sectional study was conducted among 272 adults with chronic musculoskeletal pain. Spearman’s correlations assessed associations between pain intensity, catastrophizing and depressive symptoms. Multiple regression and bootstrapped mediation analyses (5,000 resamples and PROCESS macro) evaluated predictors and the mediating role of catastrophizing in the pain–depression relationship.
Results
Pain intensity was positively correlated with depression (r = 0.28, p < 0.001) and catastrophizing (r = 0.39, p < 0.001). A stronger correlation was found between catastrophizing and depression (r = 0.54, p < 0.001). Mediation analysis demonstrated that catastrophizing fully mediated the association between pain intensity and depression (indirect effect = 0.95, 95% confidence interval = [0.65–1.29]).
Conclusion
PC is a key psychological mechanism linking pain intensity and depression among patients with chronic pain in Gaza. Integrating cognitive-behavioral therapy, mindfulness and emotion regulation strategies into pain management may improve mental health outcomes in conflict-affected settings.
Depression is often comorbid with alcohol use problems, and sex differences may further complicate this interplay.
Methods
We conducted a longitudinal study using a large European adolescent cohort assessed at ages 14 (baseline, BL), 16 (follow-up 1, FU1), 19 (follow-up 2, FU2), and 23 (follow-up 3, FU3). Depression and alcohol use were measured using standardized behavioral scales. Cross-lagged analysis, improved Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis, and mediation analysis were conducted to infer the causal interplay.
Results
2110 adolescents were included at baseline (49% male). Depression and alcohol consumption demonstrated a significant positive correlation (rBL = 0.094, pBL = 1.58E-05, 95% CI = [0.052, 0.137]), which gradually diminished over time and eventually became significantly negative. Depression and alcohol use problems remained strongly correlated across three timepoints (r > 0.074, p < 6.76E-03). Cross-lagged analysis suggested that depression predicted future alcohol use problems: βBL-FU1 = 0.058, p = 0.021, 95% CI = [0.009, 0.108]; βFU2-FU3 = 0.142, p = 8.34E-07, 95% CI = [0.113, 0.263]. MR analyses confirmed this causal interplay (rmean = 0.043, longitudinal ppermuation < 0.001). Interestingly, MR analyses also indicated that alcohol consumption might alleviate depression (rmean = −0.022, longitudinal ppermutation = 0.043), particularly in females at FU3, of which the anxiety status and the personality trait neuroticism largely mediated the effect. These findings were validated in an independent matched sample (N = 562) from Human Connectome Project.
Conclusions
Depression may predict future alcohol use problems, whereas moderate alcohol consumption might alleviate depressive symptoms, especially in females.
To investigate the extent to which the associations of socio-economic position (SEP) with stunting and wasting are mediated by minimum acceptable diet (MAD) and a family care indicator (FCI) in Sri Lanka.
Design:
Secondary data analysis of children from the 2016 Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Survey. The outcomes were stunting and wasting, the exposure was a composite measure combining maternal education and household wealth, and the mediators were binary MAD and FCI variables (adequate v. inadequate). Analyses were performed using counterfactual mediation models adjusted for age, sex and place of residence.
Setting:
A nationally representative sample of children from Sri Lanka.
Participants:
Mothers/caregivers of children under 36 months (4325).
Results:
Twenty per cent of children were stunted, and 14 % were wasted. Lower SEP was associated with higher odds of stunting and wasting and inadequate MAD and FCI. Inadequate FCI was associated with higher odds of stunting (OR = 1·47, 95 % CI = 1·24, 1·74) but not wasting (OR = 1·14, 95 % CI = 0·94, 1·38), whereas MAD was not associated with stunting or wasting. Neither MAD nor FCI significantly mediated the relationship between SEP and stunting and wasting. All mediation estimates were statistically non-significant at the 5 % level. For example, the proportion mediated by FCI on the association between the lowest composite SEP and stunting was 13 % (mean difference = 0·13, 95 % CI = < 0·00, 0·26).
Conclusion:
We did not find consistent or strong evidence that the associations of SEP with childhood stunting and wasting in Sri Lanka are mediated by MAD and FCI. Research with larger samples is needed for more precise estimates.
Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). However, whether this is a causal relation and how ADHD may predispose to a higher risk of CVD needs to be determined. We aimed to assess the causal association between ADHD and both coronary artery disease (CAD) and heart failure (HF), and to quantify the mediating effects of potential modifiable mediators. We conducted a two-step, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study using SNPs as genetic instruments for exposure and potential mediators. Leveraging summary data on the latest genomewide association studies for ADHD, proposed mediators (i.e., metabolic factors, inflammatory factors, lifestyle behaviors, psychiatric disorders, and educational attainment), CAD and HF, we decomposed the total effect of ADHD on each outcome into direct and indirect effects through multiple mediators. Genetically predicted ADHD was associated with increased odds of CAD (OR 1.13; 95% CI [1.07, 1.19]), with educational attainment (EA) being the largest contributor (32.27% mediation, 95% CI [18.33%, 56.93%]). Body mass index (BMI), type 2 diabetes (T2D), EA, smoking initiation (SI), and depression jointly explained 83.59% (95% CI [63.95%, 101.49%]) of the association. Genetically predicted ADHD was associated with increased odds of HF (OR 1.11; 95% CI [1.05, 1.19]), with SI being the largest contributor (35.87% mediation, 95% CI [13.75%, 100.14%]). BMI, T2D, and SI jointly explained 82.39% (95% CI [45.90%, 131.60%]) of the association. The findings support a causal relationship between ADHD and both CAD and HF. Several modifiable risk factors substantially mediate these associations, suggesting potential targets for interventions aimed at reducing CVD risk in individuals with ADHD.
Previous scholarship suggests that rising inequality in democracies suppresses trust in institutions. However, the mechanism behind this has not clearly been identified. This paper investigates the proposition that income inequality leads to increased democratic distrust by depressing perceptions of external efficacy. Based on time‐series cross‐sectional survey data from the European Social Survey, we find that changes in income inequality have a negative effect on changes in political trust and external efficacy. Causal mediation analysis confirms that inequality affects trust through lower efficacy. Further analyses show that this efficacy‐based mechanism does not depend on political orientation. As a direct effect remains among left‐wing respondents, our empirical results indicate that inequality affects trust via both a mechanism of substantive output evaluation and a process‐based evaluation that measures of external efficacy can capture. These findings highlight the empirical and theoretical relevance of this so far neglected mechanism and provide a potential solution for the puzzle that inequality depresses trust also among those for whom inequality is not politically salient.
While prenatal exposure to tobacco has been associated with adolescent suicide attempt, little is known about the mechanisms explaining this association. This study aims to explore the mediating roles of internalizing symptoms, externalizing behaviors, and peer problems across childhood in the association between prenatal exposure to tobacco and adolescent suicide attempt.
Methods
We analyzed data from N = 8,861 participants from the Millennium Cohort Study followed from ages 9 months to 17 years. Binary logistic regression models were used to investigate the total association between exposure to tobacco in pregnancy and suicide attempt, and mediation analyses were conducted using structural equation models to investigate the direct and indirect associations.
Results
In models adjusted for key covariates, we found a significant association between prenatal tobacco exposure and increased risk of adolescent suicide attempts (odds ratio = 2.08, 95% confidence interval = [1.68, 2.56]), partly mediated through internalizing problems, externalizing behaviors, and peer problems from ages 3 to 14 years (accounting for 37% of the total association, that is, 16%, 12%, and 9%, respectively).
Conclusions
These findings suggest that interventions targeting mental health symptoms and peer problems may maximize suicide prevention efforts among children who were prenatally exposed to tobacco, thus potentially reducing the long-term risk of suicide attempt.
Studies of variable lenition patterns converge on two phonetic properties as characteristic of lenition: reduced duration and increased intensity. However, the causal precedence of the two factors remains unclear. We focus on the causal structure of variable lenition. Study 1 examines the relationship between three correlates of lenition—speech rate, stress, and low information content—and their effect on reduced duration and increased intensity. We find that though increased intensity is more prototypically viewed as the core aspect of lenition, the effect of the three correlates on intensity is mediated by duration. Study 2 shows that all frequent lenition processes in the Buckeye corpus involve durational reduction. The contribution of this article is a proposal with a fairly simple principle, with few auxiliary assumptions: reduced duration precedes increased intensity in variable lenition.
Existing explanations of individual preferences for decentralisation and secession focus on collective identity, economic considerations and party politics. This paper contributes to this literature by showing that preferences for fiscal and political decentralisation are also driven by concern about the quality of government in the face of corruption. It makes two claims. Firstly, information on national‐level corruption decreases satisfaction with national politicians, and subsequently increases preferences for decentralisation and secession. Secondly, information on regional‐level corruption pushes citizens of highly corrupt regions to prefer national retrenchment and unitary states. The effects of this political compensation mechanism crosscut national identities and involve regions that are not ethnically or economically different from the core. We test our argument using a survey experiment in Spain and confirm its cross‐national generalisability with data from the European Values Study.
Although the short-term preventive effects of mHealth consultation intervention on postpartum depressive symptoms have been demonstrated, the long-term effects and role of alleviating loneliness on depressive symptoms remain unclear.
Methods
This follow-up study extended our previous trial, which ended at three months postpartum, by continuing observation to 12 months. Participants in the original trial were randomized to the mHealth group (n = 365) or the usual care group (n = 369). Women in the mHealth group had access to free, unlimited mHealth consultation services with healthcare professionals from enrollment through four months postpartum. The primary outcome of this study was the risk of elevated postpartum depressive symptoms at 12 months post-delivery (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale score of ≥9). The mediation effect of alleviating loneliness on the primary outcome was also evaluated, using the UCLA loneliness scale at three months postpartum.
Results
A total of 515 women completed the follow-up questionnaires (mHealth group, 253/365; usual care group, 262/369; 70.2% of the original participants). Compared to the usual care group, the mHealth group had a lower risk of elevated postpartum depressive symptoms at 12 months post-delivery (36/253 [14.2%] vs. 55/262 [21.0%], risk ratio: 0.68 [95% confidence interval: 0.46–0.99]). Mediation analysis showed that reducing loneliness at three months post-delivery mediated approximately 20% of the total effect of the intervention on depressive symptoms 12 months post-delivery.
Conclusions
mHealth consultation services provided during the early perinatal period may help alleviate depressive symptoms at 12 months postpartum.
This chapter is devoted to data analysis and its critical role in analytics science. The reader is introduced to the science of inference from observations and experiments and learns about the main ideas in data analysis that have been influential in addressing societal problems. Real-world examples are used throughout to convey the main ideas and illustrate why data analyses performed without sufficient care can yield wrong insights. Successful examples of insight-driven problem solving approaches in data analysis are contrasted with those that can yield wrong insights, and the reader is taken on an engaging yet educational journey that depicts how and why successful insight-driven problem solving approaches using data can have significant public impact.
This chapter statistically tests the relationship between American hierarchy, property rights, and state capacity using mediation analysis. It finds that American economic hierarchy enhances property rights in partner states, indirectly strengthening state capacity. The analysis explores scope conditions and the interaction between security and economic hierarchy, highlighting the contrasting effects on state-building. The chapter discusses the implications of the quantitative results for cases like Afghanistan.
Chapter 9 introduces extensions and presents applications of Direction Dependence Analysis. Specifically, it focuses on probing the causal direction of effects in moderated regression (i.e., Conditional Direction Dependence Analysis; CDDA), mediation, and nonlinear models. CDDA allows researchers to detect potential reverse causation and confounding biases of conditional variable relations. CDDA components can be used to identify value regions of a continuous moderator or groups of a categorical moderator that differ in the direction of causation of x and y or the magnitude of hidden confounding. Furthermore, DDA is introduced in the context of mediation models, that is, mechanisms in which a causal effect of x on y is transmitted via a third variable (the mediator). Incorporating principles of direction of dependence in statistical mediation analysis leads to a useful tool for empirically testing the causal inference assumptions embedded in statistical mediation analysis. The chapter closes with a discussion of direction dependence principles for nonlinear variable relations, extensions of DDA’s predictor-error independence component to nonlinear additive models, and discusses DDA in the context of linearizable regression scenarios. The latter opens the door to utilize the full DDA framework under nonlinearity of variable relations.
Process data, in particular, log data collected from a computerized test, documents the sequence of actions performed by an examinee in pursuit of solving a problem, affording an opportunity to understand test-taking behavioral patterns that account for demographic group differences in key outcomes of interest, for instance, final score on a cognitive item. Addressing this aim, this article proposes a latent class mediation analysis procedure. Using continuous process features extracted from action sequence data as indicators, latent classes underlying the test-taking behavior are identified in a latent class mediation model, where an examinee’s nominal latent class membership enters as the mediator between the observed grouping and outcome variables. A headlong search algorithm for selecting the subset of process features that maximizes the total indirect effect of the latent class mediator is implemented. The proposed procedure is validated with a series of simulations. An application to a large-scale assessment highlights how the proposed method can be used to explain performance gaps between students with learning disability and their typically developing peers on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) math assessment.
Exposure to multiple languages may support the development of Theory of Mind (ToM) in neurotypical (NT) and autistic children. However, previous research mainly applied group comparisons between monolingual and bilingual children, and the underlying mechanism of the observed difference remains unclear. The present study, therefore, sheds light on the effect of bilingualism on ToM in both NT and autistic children by measuring language experiences with a continuous operationalization. We measure ToM with a behavioral, linguistically simple tablet-based task, allowing inclusive assessment in autistic children. Analyses revealed no difference between monolingual and bilingual NT and autistic children. However, more balanced exposure to different languages within contexts positively predicted first-order false belief understanding in NT children but not autistic children. Mediation analysis showed that the impact in NT children was a direct effect and not mediated via other cognitive skills.
Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with physical and mental health difficulties in adulthood. This study examines the associations of ACEs with functional impairment and life stress among military personnel, a population disproportionately affected by ACEs. We also evaluate the extent to which the associations of ACEs with functional outcomes are mediated through internalizing and externalizing disorders.
Methods
The sample included 4,666 STARRS Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) participants who provided information about ACEs upon enlistment in the US Army (2011–2012). Mental disorders were assessed in wave 1 (LS1; 2016–2018), and functional impairment and life stress were evaluated in wave 2 (LS2; 2018–2019) of STARRS-LS. Mediation analyses estimated the indirect associations of ACEs with physical health-related impairment, emotional health-related impairment, financial stress, and overall life stress at LS2 through internalizing and externalizing disorders at LS1.
Results
ACEs had significant indirect effects via mental disorders on all functional impairment and life stress outcomes, with internalizing disorders displaying stronger mediating effects than externalizing disorders (explaining 31–92% vs 5–15% of the total effects of ACEs, respectively). Additionally, ACEs exhibited significant direct effects on emotional health-related impairment, financial stress, and overall life stress, implying ACEs are also associated with these longer-term outcomes via alternative pathways.
Conclusions
This study indicates ACEs are linked to functional impairment and life stress among military personnel in part because of associated risks of mental disorders, particularly internalizing disorders. Consideration of ACEs should be incorporated into interventions to promote psychosocial functioning and resilience among military personnel.
In the past decade, researchers have been increasingly interested in understanding the process of language learning, in addition to the effect of instructional interventions on L2 performance gains (i.e., learning products). One goal of such investigations is to reveal the interplay between learning conditions, processes, and outcomes where, for example, certain conditions can promote attention to the learning targets, which in turn facilitates learning. However, the statistical modeling approach taken often does not align with the conceptualization of the complex relationships between these variables. Thus, in this paper, we introduce mediation analysis to SLA research. We offer a step-by-step, contextualized tutorial on the practical application of mediation analysis in three different research scenarios, each addressing a different research design using either simulated or open-source datasets. Our overall goal is to promote the use of statistical techniques that are consistent with the theorization of language learning processes as mediators.