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Support for a high-ambition plastics treaty is gaining strength, particularly within global civil society and among lower-income developing countries. Still, opposition to binding measures – such as obligations to regulate petrochemicals or reduce global plastics production – remains intense and widespread. We propose the concept of a “petrochemical historical bloc” to help reveal the depth and extent of the forces opposing strong global governance of plastics. At the bloc’s core are petrostates and industry, especially producers of oil and gas feedstock, petrochemicals and plastics. Extending its influence are broader social forces – including certain political and economic institutions, consultancy firms and nongovernmental organizations – that reinforce and legitimize the discourses and tactics thwarting a high-ambition treaty. This bloc is driving up plastics production, externalizing the costs of pollution, distorting scientific knowledge and lobbying to derail negotiations. Yet the petrochemical historical bloc is neither monolithic nor all-powerful. Investigating differing interests and evolving politics within this bloc, we contend, can expose disingenuous rhetoric, weaken low-ambition alliances and reveal opportunities to overcome resistance to ambitious governance. In light of this, and toward highlighting fractures and potential counter-alliances and strategies, we call for a global research inquiry to map the full scope and nature of the petrochemical historical bloc.
A 13,500-year-old record from Langohr Wetland in the Gallatin Range of southwestern Montana offers new insights into the vegetation and fire history at middle elevations within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Pollen data suggest that following deglaciation, a tundra–steppe established until warmer and wetter conditions than before could support Picea parkland. The development of an open, predominantly Pinus mixed-conifer forest from ca. 9300–7000 cal yr BP suggests warming summer temperatures led to an increase in forest cover and fire activity; the increase in tree abundance supported infrequent, stand-replacing fires approximately every 600 years. Picea and Pseudotsuga increased their presence at ca. 7000 cal yr BP, and the mixed-conifer forest became denser during the Mid- and Late Holocene, suggesting summers became cooler and wetter. The additional fuel load led to increased fire activity, with stand-replacing fires occurring approximately every 350 years in the Late Holocene. The forest surrounding Langohr Wetland experienced less change in vegetation composition and structure and fewer fire episodes than other low- and high-elevation sites in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The stability of this forested ecosystem over thousands of years is likely a result of its cool mesic mid-elevation setting, limiting the frequency of intense fire episodes.
Active wake control (AWC) has emerged as a promising strategy for enhancing wind turbine wake recovery, but accurately modelling its underlying fluid mechanisms remains challenging. This study presents a computationally efficient wake model that provides end-to-end prediction capability from rotor actuation to wake recovery enhancement by capturing the coupled dynamics of wake meandering and mean flow modification, requiring only two inputs: a reference wake without control and a user-defined AWC strategy. The model combines physics-based resolvent modelling for large-scale coherent structures and an eddy viscosity modelling for small-scale turbulence. A Reynolds stress model is introduced to account for the influence of both coherent and incoherent wake fluctuations, so that the time-averaged wake recovery enhanced by the AWC can be quantitatively predicted. Validation against large-eddy simulations (LES) across various AWC approaches and actuating frequencies demonstrates the model’s predictive capability, accurately capturing AWC-specific and frequency-dependent mean wake recovery with less than 8 % error from LES while reducing computational time from thousands of central-processing-unit hours to minutes. The efficiency and accuracy of the model makes it a promising tool for practical AWC design and optimization of large-scale wind farms.
Though ubiquitous in many engineering applications, including drug delivery, the compound droplet hydrodynamics in confined geometries have been barely surveyed. For the first time, this study thoroughly investigates the hydrodynamics of a ferrofluid compound droplet (FCD) during its migration in a microchannel under the presence of a pressure-driven flow and a uniform external magnetic field (UEMF) to manipulate its morphology and retard its breakup. Finite difference and phase-field multiple-relaxation time lattice Boltzmann approaches are coupled to determine the magnetic field and ternary flow system, respectively. First, the influence of the magnetic Bond number (${Bo}_m$) on the FCD morphology is explored depending on whether the core or shell is ferrofluid when the UEMF is applied along $\alpha =0^\circ$ and $\alpha =90^\circ$ relative to the fluid flow. It is ascertained that imposing the UEMF at $\alpha =0^\circ$ when the shell is ferrofluid can postpone the breakup. Intriguingly, when the core is ferrofluid, strengthening the UEMF enlarges the shell deformation. Afterwards, the effects of the capillary number (${Ca}$), density ratio, viscosity ratio, radius ratio and surface tension coefficients are scrutinised on the FCD deformation and breakup. The results indicate that augmenting the core-to-shell viscosity and density ratios accelerates the breakup process. Additionally, surface tension between the core and shell suppresses the core deformation. Moreover, increasing the ${Ca}$ intensifies the viscous drag force exerted on the shell, flattening its rear side, which causes a triangular-like configuration. Ultimately, by varying ${Bo}_m$ and ${Ca}$, five distinct regimes are observed, whose regime map is established.
The gastrointestinal microbiota of mammals plays a crucial role in host health, influencing nutrient absorption, lipid metabolism, and immune system regulation. This study examines the current state of research on gut microbiota in pinnipeds and cetaceans, significant indicators of ocean health. To this end, a bibliometric and an in-depth analysis was conducted using the Scopus database. A total of 83 articles published between 1994 and 2023 were found on this topic. In this period, publications showed a 6.9% annual increase, reflecting a growing interest in this field. The USA and China lead in research output, reflecting their high investment in research funding. Study topics were classified in characterization, characterization and comparison, bacterial isolation, and others. Regarding the origin of the samples, faecal samples predominated over gastrointestinal tissues and oral swabs. The most abundant bacterial phyla were Firmicutes, Proteobacteria, Fusobacteria, and Bacterioidetes. The research also highlights the presence of pathogenic bacteria underscoring the need to better understand the health implications for these species. The analysis also reveals that studies focus on a few species, such as Phoca vitulina (Harbor seal) and Tursiops truncatus (Bottlenose dolphin), reflecting a bias towards more accessible and studied species. To advance in this area, it is recommended to broaden the range of species and countries studied, improve sampling methodologies, and foster international collaborations. Research on marine mammal gut microbiota remains an expanding field, offering significant insights into the biology and ecology of these animals.
We live in a time of significant global risk. Some research has focused on understanding systemic sources of this risk, while other research has focused on possible worst-case outcomes. In this article, we bring together these two areas of research and provide a simple conceptual framework that shows how emergent features of the global system contribute to the risk of global catastrophe.
Technical summary
Humanity faces a complex and dangerous global risk landscape, and many different terms and concepts have been used to make sense of it. One broad strand of research characterises how risk emerges within the complex global system, using concepts like systemic risk, Anthropocene risk, synchronous failure, negative social tipping points, and polycrisis. Another focuses on possible worst-case outcomes, using concepts like global catastrophic risk (GCR), existential risk, and extinction risk. Despite their clear relevance to each other, connections between these two strands remain limited. Here, we provide a simple conceptual framework that synthesises these research strands and shows how emergent properties of the global system contribute to the risk of global catastrophic outcomes. In particular, we show that much of GCR stems from the interaction of hazards and vulnerabilities that arise endogenously within the global system, and how ‘systems thinking’ and complex adaptive systems theory can help illuminate this. We also highlight some unique challenges that systemic sources of GCR pose for risk assessment and mitigation, discuss insights for policy, and outline potential paths forward.
Social media summary
The global system is generating global catastrophic risk.
This paper presents a novel machine learning framework for reconstructing low-order gust-encounter flow field and lift coefficients from sparse, noisy surface pressure measurements. Our study thoroughly investigates the time-varying response of sensors to gust–airfoil interactions, uncovering valuable insights into optimal sensor placement. To address uncertainties in deep learning predictions, we implement probabilistic regression strategies to model both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Epistemic uncertainty, reflecting the model’s confidence in its predictions, is modelled using Monte Carlo dropout – as an approximation to the variational inference in the Bayesian framework – treating the neural network as a stochastic entity. On the other hand, aleatoric uncertainty, arising from noisy input measurements, is captured via learned statistical parameters, and propagate measurement noise through the network into the final predictions. Our results showcase the efficacy of this dual uncertainty quantification strategy in accurately predicting aerodynamic behaviour under extreme conditions while maintaining computational efficiency, underscoring its potential to improve online sensor-based flow estimation in real-world applications.
We explored the dynamics of Taylor–Couette flows within square enclosures, focusing primarily on the turbulence regime and vortex behaviour at varying Reynolds numbers. Laboratory experiments were conducted using particle image velocimetry for Reynolds numbers $Re_{\varDelta }\in [0.23, 4.6]\times 10^3$ based on the minimum gap $\varDelta /d = 1/16$, $1/8$ and $1/4$, where $d$ is the cylinder diameter, or $Re\in [1.8, 9.8]\times 10^3$ based on $d/2$. At lower $Re$, the flow was dominated by well-defined Taylor and Görtler vortices, while higher $Re$ led to a turbulent state with distinct motions. Space–time radial velocity analysis revealed persistent Taylor vortices at lower $Re$, with larger gaps but increased turbulence, and irregular motions at higher $Re$, with smaller gaps. Velocity spectra reveal that the energy distribution is maintained at frequencies lower than the integral-type frequency $f_I$ across varying $\varDelta$ due to the dominance of large vortices. However, there is a monotonic increase in energy at higher frequencies beyond $f_I$. The reduced characteristic frequency $f_I\varDelta /\omega _ir_i \sim 1/10$ indicates that these motions scale linearly with angular velocity, and inversely with the gap. Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and spectral POD were used to distinguish between Taylor and Görtler vortices, showing the effects of gap size and the associated energy cascade. Linear stability analysis included as complementary support revealed primary instability of the Taylor vortex, which is similar to the circular enclosure, along with multiple corner modes that are unique to the geometry.
Long-duration and time-resolved particle image velocimetry measurements were conducted in rough-wall open channel flows (OCFs), with the friction Reynolds number ranging from 642 to 2034. The primary objective is to investigate the impacts of various turbulent motions at different scales on the mean wall-shear stress ($\langle \tau _w \rangle$). To achieve this aim, a physical decomposition of $\langle \tau _w \rangle$ was initially performed utilizing the double-averaged methodology proposed by Nikora et al. (2019 J. Fluid Mech. 872, 626–664). This method enabled the breakdown of $\langle \tau _w \rangle$ into three distinct constituents: viscous, turbulent and dispersive stress segments. The findings underscore the substantial roles that turbulent and dispersive stresses play, accounting for over 75 % and 9 % of $\langle \tau _w \rangle$, respectively. Subsequently, a scale decomposition was further applied to analyse the contributions of coherent motions at different scales to $\langle \tau _w \rangle$. Adopting typical cutoff streamwise wavelengths ($\lambda _x = 3h$ and $10h$), the contribution of large-scale motions (LSMs) and very large-scale motions (VLSMs) to the overall wall-shear stress was quantified. It was revealed that turbulent motions with $\lambda _x \gt 3h$ and $\lambda _x \gt 10h$ contribute more than 40 % and 18 % of $\langle \tau _w \rangle$, respectively. The scale decomposition of the wall-shear stress and the contribution from LSMs and VLSMs exhibit evident dependencies on the Reynolds number. The contribution of LSMs and VLSMs to $\langle \tau _w \rangle$ is lower in rough OCFs compared with those of smooth counterparts. Secondary currents induced by the rough wall are hypothesised to be responsible for the reduced strength of LSMs and VLSMs and decreases in their contribution to $\langle \tau _w \rangle$.
In this paper, frontal variations and surface area changes for each of the years 2017–2023 are assessed for 277 Swedish glaciers, of which the majority is contained within the Randolph Glacier Inventory 7.0. Mapping of all Swedish glaciers became possible by combining Sentinel-2 imagery, semi-automated mapping procedures and the open-source Margin Change Quantification Tool (MaQiT). In addition, manual mapping was performed at a subset of 22 glaciers historically associated with the Swedish Front Variation Program. At four of those, mapping accuracy was assessed by contrasting Sentinel-2 mapped fronts to fronts mapped in situ using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), a total station and an uncrewed aerial vehicle. Results show widespread retreat of all Swedish glaciers, with cumulative frontal variation amounting on average to −55.6 m during 2017–2023 or −9.3 m a−1. Swedish glaciers had a total area of ∼237 km2 in 2017 and of 210 km2 in 2023. The reduction by ∼27 km2 corresponds to a loss of 11% with respect to the areal extent in the year 2017 but varies across regions. It is also almost as large as the combined area loss of Swedish glaciers in the preceding 15 years (∼31 km2, 2002–2017).
A linear stability model based on a phase-field method is established to study the formation of ripples on the ice surface. The pattern on horizontal ice surfaces, e.g. glaciers and frozen lakes, is found to be originating from a gravity-driven instability by studying ice–water–air flows with a range of water and ice thicknesses. Contrary to gravity, surface tension and viscosity act to suppress the instability. The results demonstrate that a larger value of either water thickness or ice thickness corresponds to a longer dominant wavelength of the pattern, and a favourable wavelength of 90 mm is predicted, in agreement with observations from nature. Furthermore, the profiles of the most unstable perturbations are found to be with two peaks at the ice–water and water–air interfaces whose ratio decreases exponentially with the water thickness and wavenumber.
As governments prepare for the decisive round of negotiations for the global plastics treaty in August 2025, trade remains a largely overlooked yet indispensable element in shaping an effective and equitable agreement. We argue that trade, spanning plastic feedstocks, resins, products, and waste, forms the connective tissue of the plastics economy and that it must be embedded in the treaty’s architecture. Drawing on global trade data, country cases, and precedent from multilateral environmental agreements, we demonstrate how trade both drives plastic pollution and can serve as a lever for circularity and sustainability. We outline the asymmetries in global plastics trade and their implications for equity and implementation, especially for small and import-dependent states. The article proposes a suite of actionable recommendations for INC-5.2, including trade-related transparency, WTO-aligned treaty provisions, and dedicated capacity-building support. By integrating trade governance into the plastics treaty, negotiators can build an agreement that is both environmentally ambitious and structurally sound.
Plastics and climate change are inseparable issues, both materially and geopolitically. Plastics are derived almost entirely from fossil fuels and have an enormous greenhouse gas footprint. Aligning with the Paris Agreement requires rapid, dramatic decreases in plastic production, contravening the industry’s plans to continue expanding production. The oil, gas and petrochemical industry wields substantial power in both the climate and plastics treaty negotiations and has used that power to stymie progress in both. Rather than repeat the failures of the climate negotiations, plastics negotiators should seek to create a “plastics club” for ambitious action.
In this work, a systematic study is carried out concerning the dynamic behaviour of finite-size spheroidal particles in non-isothermal shear flows between parallel plates. The simulations rely on a hybrid method combining the lattice Boltzmann method with a finite-difference solver. Fluid–particle and heat–particle interactions are accounted for by using the immersed boundary method. The effect of particle Reynolds number ($\textit{Re}_p=1{-}90$), Grashof number (${Gr}=0{-}200$), initial position and initial orientation of the particle are thoroughly examined. For the isothermal prolate particle, we observed that above a certain Reynolds number, the particle undergoes a pitchfork bifurcation; at an even higher Reynolds number, it returns to the centre position. In contrast, the hot particle behaves differently, with no pitchfork bifurcation. Instead, the Reynolds and Grashof numbers can induce oscillatory tumbling or log-rolling motions in either the lower or upper half of the channel. Heat transfer also plays an important role: at low Grashof numbers, the particle settles near the lower wall, while increasing the Grashof number shifts it towards the upper side. Moreover, the presence of thermal convection increases the rotational speed of the particle. Surprisingly, beyond the first critical Reynolds number, the equilibrium position of the thermal particle shifts closer to the centreline compared with that of a neutrally buoyant isothermal particle. Moreover, higher Grashof numbers can cause the particle to transition from tumbling to log-rolling or even a no-rotation mode. The initial orientation has a stronger influence at low Grashof numbers, while the initial position shows no strong effect in non-isothermal cases.
This study investigates noise generation from co-rotating rotors arranged in a side-by-side configuration. The analysis examines the effects of different phase delays and separation distances. A simple mathematical model is developed to provide insight into constructive and destructive noise interference. An experimental campaign was carried out to validate the proposed analytical model. Furthermore, the study introduces a space–time proper orthogonal decomposition technique to separate broadband and tonal components. Subsequently, wavelet analysis is applied to the tonal component, revealing a transition to chaos via intermittency, characterised by the local birth and decay of periodic oscillations. This phenomenon highlights the intricate and fascinating chaotic nature of interference transitions. The chaotic behaviour of the tonal component is related to the macro time scale of pressure fluctuations, and has been incorporated into the mathematical model. This model has several applications, including its potential use in the development of active control systems and the design of quieter distributed propulsion systems.
Calving is the process of ice loss through the breaking of ice from a glacier’s terminus. Ice-flow models describe calving in various ways, although no consensus exists on the optimal approach. This is critical as the modelled calving rate can strongly influence projections of mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets. As the sub-aerial cliff height at a glacier’s ice front can be considered an indicator of the terminus stress regime, we used a wealth of high-resolution remote-sensing datasets to perform a detailed investigation into the observed relationship between the terminus cliff height and calving rate of 15 tidewater glaciers around the Antarctic Peninsula. The overall long-term response of the assessed glaciers revealed a linearly increasing relationship between calving rate and sub-aerial terminus cliff height from which we derived a calving parameterisation intended for implementation in long-term modelling of tidewater glaciers in the Antarctic Peninsula. Further, other existing calving parameterisations which are based on the terminus ice geometry yielded a poor fit to the assessed observational data. With the availability of such high-resolution data, better validation and constraint of calving parameterisations are now possible, which could greatly improve confidence in the implementation of calving and reliability of outputs from modelling studies.
A considerable knowledge gap exists in relation to the presence and even existence of seagrass within Northern Ireland’s waters. Peer-reviewed publications on the historical ecology of seagrass are scarce and a collated timeline of references directly focusing on Northern Irish seagrasses does not exist. Recognising abiotic and biotic induced environmental change within key marine features such as seagrass is vital when attempting to measure the biodiversity and carbon sequestration services they provide. The research undertaken during this study identified three distinct periods within the archival records, which could be matched to the ecological history of seagrass in Northern Ireland. The first period (extensive and dense seagrass meadows from 1790 to 1880) was characterised by extensive seagrass meadows which were dense and healthy. The second period (degradation from 1880 to 1940) saw the beginnings of decline in seagrass from the 1790s, initially from anthropogenic influences and later from the seagrass wasting disease) and the final period (signs of recovery from 1940 to present day) showed small amounts of local regrowth of seagrass but at far reduced densities compared to the historical baseline described. These three defined periods all delivered varying degrees of anthropogenic stressors which determined the conservational health of seagrass in Northern Ireland. Seagrass habitats have become integral components in future-proofing the coastal marine environment against the effects of climate change and its associated impacts. Therefore, it is envisaged that the historical baseline that this manuscript provides will greatly benefit habitat managers in protecting, repairing, and restoring lost seagrass meadows.