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This chapter focuses on how urban development relates to earthquake risk. It draws connections between earthquakes and floods, then introduces key technical concepts (e.g., magnitude v. intensity, liquefaction, structural response to shaking). It presents the urban development and disaster histories of Kobe (Japan; including the 1995 earthquake) and Christchurch (New Zealand; including the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence), assessing and comparing them using the Urban Risk Dynamics framework. Findings resonate with themes from the flood chapters. Urbanization often involves modifying lands (e.g., draining wetlands, expanding waterfronts, constructing islands), which are susceptible to ground failure in earthquakes. While newer structures are less prone to damage because of technological and building code advances, many older buildings are concentrated in neighborhoods that are hotspots of physical and social vulnerability. Postdisaster reconstruction and recovery accelerate prior trends. Catastrophic events trigger learning and instigate diversification in risk reduction strategies. Retreat from hazard lands is possible, as exemplified in Christchurch’s residential red zone.
A reassessment of radiocarbon counting statistics in accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) at the Andre E. Lalonde National Facility revealed that the traditionally assumed Poisson distribution may not always apply. An extensive analysis of 2.5 years of 14C and 12C data was conducted on a MICADAS™ AMS. This study found that only 63% of results adhered to Poisson statistics, while 34.2% showed slight deviations, and 2.8% exhibited strong non-Poisson behavior. This finding challenges the classic assumption that radiocarbon AMS is inherently a Poisson process. This study recommends considering non-Poisson models, specifically quasi-Poisson and negative binomial models, to better account for internal error and improve the accuracy of the reported error. Integrating 12C current noise into error calculations is also suggested as it plays a significant role in measurement variability. We would like to ignite curiosity on other AMS laboratories to test the non-Poisson error framework with the broader aim of assessing its applicability in improving conventional statistical models, error expansion methods, and in ensuring more accurate and reliable 14C results.
This study examines the implementation challenges of the carbon tax and related mechanisms and governmental initiatives (such as the border carbon tax) within the framework of the World Trade Organization. As these issues are relevant to Kazakhstan as well, the mentioned problems are considered from the perspective of potential complexities for the country. The research suggests that accusations of protectionist policies by the European Union (EU) may escalate, although there is currently no compelling evidence that the decision to introduce them was a deliberate protectionist measure. Based on the research findings, it is evident that the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will increase costs for EU importers, which are likely to be passed on to consumers, especially due to the gradual phasing out of free emissions trading quotas.
In order to understand how urban disaster risk changes, it is essential to understand how cities change. This chapter argues that cities are continually evolving entities whose past and present dynamics provide insights into future trends and possibilities. The chapter first reviews global trends in disaster losses, along with well-established definitions and frameworks about disaster risk. It explains why these are inadequate for understanding how a city’s disaster risk changes over time. It then proposes a simple conceptual framework, the Urban Risk Dynamics framework, to help guide empirical study of evolving disaster risk in any city. The framework is based on several premises: that local geography, or landscape, is vital to understanding urban disaster risk; that cities must be understood as economic entities; and that technological change is a key driver of urban change. The chapter then introduces and justifies the selection of the six case studies to be analyzed using the framework in Chapters 3–5.
We report the introduction of Juxtacribrilina mutabilis, a nonindigenous marine encrusting bryozoan, to eastern Canada. Previously reported as a nonindigenous species (NIS) in Europe and Maine, USA, this species is of potential ecological concern due to its propensity to foul eelgrass (Zostera marina), an ecologically important habitat-forming coastal species. By compiling prior unpublished records, re-evaluating existing specimens, and collecting new records of J. mutabilis, we discovered that the species has a widespread distribution in eastern Canada. Specimen reclassification efforts in our study indicate that J. mutabilis has been present in eastern Canada since at least 2013, but the species largely escaped notice until 2024, likely due to its similarity to other encrusting bryozoan species and other factors inhibiting its detection. In light of the distributional and genetic data collected in this study, we reconstruct the possible invasion history of J. mutabilis in eastern Canada, including potential introduction mechanisms, timing, and source regions. We also discuss the ecology of J. mutabilis in eastern Canada, evaluating the factors influencing the morphology of the bryozoan, assessing its potential to detrimentally impact its eelgrass substrate, and estimating its environmental niche. Further research into the distribution, ecology, and potential impacts of J. mutabilis in eastern Canada is recommended. This case study highlights the importance of diversity in the habitats surveyed and methods used when monitoring for marine NIS, the need for horizon scanning to raise awareness of potential NIS, and the advantages of multi-party collaboration and citizen science for early detection of such species.
The concluding chapter provides a synthesis and reflection on insights from this book. It first summarizes the main findings regarding how disaster risk today is a legacy of urban history, drawing on salient examples from the six case study cities and cautioning that risk becomes very “path dependent” as future options are constrained by past decisions. After discussing limitations of the study and further research needs, the chapter suggests that the Urban Risk Dynamics framework and findings from the six cases are relevant to any city, demonstrating this for Vancouver (Canada). It then reflects on the practical significance of the book. It argues that the findings demonstrate why disaster risk and risk reduction should be viewed dynamically; why understanding risk should start with the city, not the hazard or disaster; and why interdisciplinary approaches are critical for reducing risk. Recognizing this can help analysts, planners, and policy-makers, for example, to not only identify current risk hotspots but anticipate future ones, to consider risk from a multihazard standpoint, and to develop strategies and solutions that are effective in the long term.
Direct numerical simulations of a uniform flow past a fixed spherical droplet are performed to determine the parameter range within which the axisymmetric flow becomes unstable. The problem is governed by three dimensionless parameters: the drop-to-fluid dynamic viscosity ratio, $\mu ^\ast$, and the external and internal Reynolds numbers, ${\textit{Re}}^e$ and ${\textit{Re}}^i$, which are defined using the kinematic viscosities of the external and internal fluids, respectively. The present study confirms the existence of a regime at low-to-moderate viscosity ratio where the axisymmetric flow breaks down due to an internal flow instability. In the initial stages of this bifurcation, the external flow remains axisymmetric, while the asymmetry is generated and grows only inside the droplet. As the disturbance propagates outward, the entire flow first transits to a biplanar-symmetric flow, characterised by two pairs of counter-rotating streamwise vortices in the wake. A detailed examination of the flow field reveals that the vorticity on the internal side of the droplet interface is driving the flow instability. Specifically, the bifurcation sets in once the maximum internal vorticity exceeds a critical value that decreases with increasing ${\textit{Re}}^i$. For sufficiently large ${\textit{Re}}^i$, internal flow bifurcation may occur at viscosity ratios of $\mu ^\ast = {\mathcal{O}}(10)$, an order of magnitude higher than previously reported values. Finally, we demonstrate that the internal flow bifurcation in the configuration of a fixed droplet in a uniform fluid stream is closely related to the first path instability experienced by a buoyant, deformable droplet of low-to-moderate $\mu ^\ast$ freely rising in a stagnant liquid.
Utilising Y2O3, Sm2O3, LuPO4, and EuPO4 and a 2N NaOH solution, Y, Sm, Lu, and Eu are metasomatically incorporated into a natural, inclusion-free, almandine–pyrope garnet (Gore Mountain) at 900°C and 1000 MPa (sealed Pt capsule, CaF2 setup with graphite oven, piston cylinder press) via a coupled dissolution–reprecipitation process. Incorporation of Y+REE takes place via a series of coupled substitutions involving the dodecahedral site in garnet, i.e. VIII(Y,REE)3+ + IVAl3+ = VIII(Fe,Mg,Mn,Ca)2+ + IVSi4+; 2VIII(Y+REE)3+ + VIII□ = 3 VIII(Fe,Mg,Mn,Ca)2+; VIII(Y,REE)3+ + VIIINa+ = 2 VIII(Fe+Mg+Mn+Ca)2+; and VIII(Y,REE)3+ + VI(Fe,Mg)2+ = VIII(Fe,Mg)2+ + VI(Al,Fe)3+. In comparison to the slower, solid-state diffusion of Y+REE in garnet under high-grade (700–900°C; 500–1000 MPa) conditions, the results from these experiments indicate that efficient, rapid incorporation (or depletion) of Y+REE in garnet could occur by fluid-aided coupled dissolution–reprecipitation during metamorphism. The results from these experiments have important implications with regard to the effect of metasomatic/metamorphic events on Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd age determination in garnet, the use of Y exchange between xenotime and garnet as a geothermometer in metamorphic rocks, and the effect of metamorphic fluids on the coupling between the Y and δ18O signal in garnets.
Projecting regional climate change over this century and the next remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of weather, but it is made more reliable through reconstructions of paleoweather in relation to climate change in atmospheric and ocean circulation, winds, waves, currents, and precipitation. This primer applies a cross-disciplinary treatment of large-scale and synoptic climatology to the reconstruction of past climates under the umbrella of synoptic paleoclimatology, providing the theory and application of synoptic paleoclimatology for the study and prediction of future climate evolution. Climate proxy and data–model assimilation methodologies are described in detail, focusing on coasts, the surface ocean, glaciers, and ice sheets. This book also presents a state-of-the-art synthesis of regional climate history across the Southern Hemisphere, including tropical coral reefs, coasts, alpine glaciers, and Antarctica. This book will be invaluable to advanced students, researchers, and practitioners in climatology, paleoclimatology, meteorology, coastal geoscience, glaciology, oceanography, global change, and climate risk assessment.
A literature review suggests that the flows past simply connected bodies with aspect ratio close to unity and symmetries aligned with the flow follow a consistent sequence of regimes (steady, periodic, quasiperiodic) as the Reynolds number increases. However, evidence is fragmented, and studies are rarely conducted using comparable numerical or experimental set-ups. This paper investigates the wake dynamics of two canonical bluff bodies with distinct symmetries: a cube (discrete) and a sphere (continuous). Employing three-dimensional (3-D) global linear stability analysis and nonlinear simulations within a unified numerical framework, we identify the bifurcation sequence driving these regime transitions. The sequence: a pitchfork bifurcation breaks spatial symmetry; a Hopf bifurcation introduces temporal periodicity ($St_1$); a Neimark–Sacker bifurcation destabilises the periodic orbit, leading to quasiperiodic dynamics with two incommensurate frequencies ($St_1, St_2$). A Newton–Krylov method computes the unstable steady and periodic base flows without imposing symmetry constraints. Linear stability reveals similarities between the cube and sphere in the spatial structure of the leading eigenvectors and in the eigenvalue trajectories approaching instability. This study provides the first confirmation of a Neimark–Sacker bifurcation to quasiperiodicity in these 3-D wakes, using Floquet stability analysis of computed unstable periodic orbits and their Floquet modes. The quasiperiodic regime is described in space and time by the Floquet modes’ effects on the base flow and a spectrum dominated by the two incommensurate frequencies and tones arising from nonlinear interactions. Although demonstrated for a cube and a sphere, this bifurcation sequence, leading from steady state to quasiperiodic dynamics, suggests broader applicability beyond these geometries.
One Health has primarily focused on infectious diseases, without adequately considering the nuances of the environment or biocultural diversity. Its focus has predominantly been on the scientific perspective without taking into account the locally generated Indigenous knowledge or local concerns and consequences of measures adopted in terms of biosecurity and bio-monitoring and their acceptance by the communities concerned. With the recent global policy developments including the One Health High-Level Expert Panel (OHHLEP) and the pandemic it appears to have become more broader in scope and more inclusive, yet it continues to face multiple implementation challenges. Drawing on a set of case studies from different regions this paper seeks to explore the multiple in One Health. It explores how we can better integrate the practical experience of local communities into the One Health approach and how anthropology as a learning approach can contribute to this. By citing specific case studies, the article argues for reckoning the co-created, even shared knowledge of different life forms, within an ecosystem and their dynamic nature. It argues that knowledge networking is crucial to bring out all the available knowledge, and to make it visible and shareable with each other while retaining their own logic and epistemology. Finally, the article points out that there is no one size fits all approach to One Health; it should be co-planned based on contextual realities.
Understanding the interplay between thermal, elastic and hydrodynamic effects is crucial for a variety of applications, including the design of soft materials and microfluidic systems. Motivated by these applications, we investigate the emergence of natural convection in a fluid layer that is supported from below by a rigid surface, and covered from above by a thin elastic sheet. The sheet is laterally compressed and is maintained at a constant temperature lower than that of the rigid surface. We show that for very stiff sheets, and below a certain magnitude of the lateral compression, the system behaves as if the fluid were confined between two rigid walls, where the emergent flow exhibits a periodic structure of vortices with a typical length scale proportional to the depth of the fluid, similar to patterns observed in Rayleigh–Bénard convection. However, for more compliant sheets, and above a certain threshold of the lateral compression, a new local minimum appears in the stability diagram, with a corresponding wavenumber that depends solely on the bending modulus of the sheet and the specific weight of the fluid, as in wrinkling instability of thin sheets. The emergent flow field in this region synchronises with the wrinkle pattern. We investigate the exchange of stabilities between these two solutions, and construct a stability diagram of the system.
Invariant maps are a useful tool for turbulence modelling, and the rapid growth of machine learning-based turbulence modelling research has led to renewed interest in them. They allow different turbulent states to be visualised in an interpretable manner and provide a mathematical framework to analyse or enforce realisability. Current invariant maps, however, are limited in machine learning models by the need for costly coordinate transformations and eigendecomposition at each point in the flow field. This paper introduces a new polar invariant map based on an angle that parametrises the relationship of the principal anisotropic stresses, and a scalar that describes the anisotropy magnitude relative to a maximum value. The polar invariant map reframes realisability in terms of a limiting anisotropy magnitude, allowing for new and simplified approaches to enforcing realisability that do not require coordinate transformations or explicit eigendecomposition. Potential applications to machine learning-based turbulence modelling include post-processing corrections for realisability, realisability-informed training, turbulence models with adaptive coefficients and general tensor basis models. The relationships to other invariant maps are illustrated through examples of plane channel flow and square duct flow. Sample calculations are provided for a comparison with a typical barycentric map-based method for enforcing realisability, showing an average 62 % reduction in calculation time using the equivalent polar formulation. The results provide a foundation for new approaches to enforcing realisability constraints in Reynolds-averaged turbulence modelling.
We analyse a 36-year hydrodynamic and morphological dataset from the Hasaki coast, Japan, comprising 501 wave storm events (405 individual and 96 clustered events) to investigate the impact of storm dynamics and clustering on beach erosion. Focusing on the wave component of storms, events are identified using wave height thresholds. Daily and weekly beach profile measurements from the Hasaki Oceanographic Research Station are used to quantify erosion. The study examines the seasonal influences on Hasaki beach, the characteristics and temporal evolution of storms, and their associated erosional impacts. Moreover, we test two supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms, support vector regression (SVR), and deep neural network (DNN), in predicting shoreline change using 16 wave, storm, and morphological features. SVR showed reasonable accuracy on the training dataset but underperformed on testing, while DNN failed to produce reliable predictions on both. With SVR yielding an R2 of 0.18 and DNN 0.27 on the testing dataset, we conclude that, given the limited data and available features, such ML models may not generalise well. However, separate analyses using observed data reveal clear seasonal variations in wave storm dynamics and distinct behaviours of clustered events associated with beach erosion, highlighting important insights beyond the ML results.