The linear arithmetic fundamental lemma (AFL) is a conjectural identity of intersection numbers on Lubin–Tate deformation spaces and derivatives of orbital integrals. It was introduced for elliptic orbits by Li, and Howard and Li. For elliptic orbits, the relevant intersection problem is formulated for the basic isogeny class. In the present article, we extend the conjecture to all orbits and all isogeny classes. Our main result is a reduction of the non-basic cases of the AFL to the basic ones, which relies on an analysis of the connected-étale sequence. Our results will be relevant in the global setting, where also locally non-elliptic orbits may contribute in a non-trivial way.

We study hyperbolicity properties of the moduli space of polarized abelian varieties (also known as the Siegel modular variety) in characteristic p. Our method uses the plethysm operation for Schur functors as a key ingredient and requires a new positivity notion for vector bundles in characteristic p called $(\varphi,D)$-ampleness. Generalizing what was known for the Hodge line bundle, we also show that many automorphic vector bundles on the Siegel modular variety are $(\varphi,D)$-ample.

We develop the theory and algorithms necessary to be able to verify the strong Birch–Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture for absolutely simple modular abelian varieties over ${\mathbf {Q}}$. We apply our methods to all 28 Atkin–Lehner quotients of $X_0(N)$ of genus $2$, all 97 genus $2$ curves from the LMFDB whose Jacobian is of this type and six further curves originally found by Wang. We are able to verify the strong BSD Conjecture unconditionally and exactly in all these cases; this is the first time that strong BSD has been confirmed for absolutely simple abelian varieties of dimension at least $2$. We also give an example where we verify that the order of the Tate–Shafarevich group is $7^2$ and agrees with the order predicted by the BSD Conjecture.

We investigate and compare applications of the Zilber–Pink conjecture and dynamical methods to rigidity problems for arithmetic real and complex hyperbolic lattices. Along the way, we obtain new general results about reconstructing a variation of Hodge structure from its typical Hodge locus that may be of independent interest. Applications to Siu’s immersion problem are also discussed, the most general of which only requires the hypothesis that infinitely many closed geodesics map to proper totally geodesic subvarieties under the immersion.

Let X be a smooth projective variety defined over a number field K. We give an upper bound for the generalised greatest common divisor of a point $x\in X$ with respect to an irreducible subvariety $Y\subseteq X$ also defined over K. To prove the result, we establish a rather uniform Riemann–Roch-type inequality.

In this paper, we compare the $\mathbb J$-stratification (or the semi-module stratification) and the Ekedahl–Oort stratification of affine Deligne–Lusztig varieties in the superbasic case. In particular, we classify the cases where the $\mathbb J$-stratification gives a refinement of the Ekedahl–Oort stratification, which include many interesting cases such that the affine Deligne-Lusztig variety admits a simple geometric structure.

Let G be a semiabelian variety defined over a finite subfield of an algebraically closed field K of prime characteristic. We describe the intersection of a subvariety X of G with a finitely generated subgroup of $G(K)$.

Given a self-morphism $\phi$ on a projective variety defined over a number field k, we prove two results which bound the largest iterate of $\phi$ whose evaluation at P is quasi-integral with respect to a divisor D, uniformly across P defined over a field of bounded degree over k. The first result applies when the pullback of D by some iterate of $\phi$ breaks up into enough irreducible components which are numerical multiples of each other. The proof uses Le’s algebraic-point version of a result of Ji–Yan–Yu, which is based on Schmidt subspace theorem. The second result applies more generally but relies on a deep conjecture by Vojta for algebraic points. The second result is an extension of a recent result of Matsuzawa, based on the theory of asymptotic multiplicity. Both results are generalisations of Hsia–Silverman, which treated the case of morphisms on ${\mathbb{P}}^1$.

We give a precise classification, in terms of Shimura data, of all $1$-dimensional Shimura subvarieties of a moduli space of polarized abelian varieties.

The blow-up of the anticanonical base point on a del Pezzo surface S of degree 1 gives rise to a rational elliptic surface $\mathscr {E}$ with only irreducible fibers. The sections of minimal height of $\mathscr {E}$ are in correspondence with the $240$ exceptional curves on S. A natural question arises when studying the configuration of these curves: if a point on S is contained in “many” exceptional curves, is it torsion on its fiber on $\mathscr {E}$? In 2005, Kuwata proved for the analogous question on del Pezzo surfaces of degree $2$, where there are 56 exceptional curves, that if “many” equals $4$ or more, the answer is yes. In this paper, we prove that for del Pezzo surfaces of degree 1, the answer is yes if ‘many’ equals $9$ or more. Moreover, we give counterexamples where a non-torsion point lies in the intersection of $7$ exceptional curves. We give partial results for the still open case of 8 intersecting exceptional curves.

This paper contains a method to prove the existence of smooth curves in positive characteristic whose Jacobians have unusual Newton polygons. Using this method, I give a new proof that there exist supersingular curves of genus $4$ in every prime characteristic. More generally, the main result of the paper is that, for every $g \geq 4$ and prime p, every Newton polygon whose p-rank is at least $g-4$ occurs for a smooth curve of genus g in characteristic p. In addition, this method resolves some cases of Oort’s conjecture about Newton polygons of curves.

We show the properness of the moduli stack of stable surfaces over $\mathbb{Z}\left[ {1/30} \right]$, assuming the locally-stable reduction conjecture for stable surfaces. This relies on a local Kawamata–Viehweg vanishing theorem for 3-dimensional log canonical singularities at closed point of characteristic $p \ne 2,3$ and $5$, which are not log canonical centres.

Oda’s problem, which deals with the fixed field of the universal monodromy representation of moduli spaces of curves and its independence with respect to the topological data, is a central question of anabelian arithmetic geometry. This paper emphasizes the stack nature of this problem by establishing the independence of monodromy fields with respect to finer special loci data of curves with symmetries, which we show provides a new proof of Oda’s prediction.

Let A be an abelian surface over ${\mathbb {Q}}$ whose geometric endomorphism ring is a maximal order in a non-split quaternion algebra. Inspired by Mazur’s theorem for elliptic curves, we show that the torsion subgroup of $A({\mathbb {Q}})$ is $12$-torsion and has order at most $18$. Under the additional assumption that A is of $ {\mathrm{GL}}_2$-type, we give a complete classification of the possible torsion subgroups of $A({\mathbb {Q}})$.

We study the $\overline {\mathbb {F}}_{p}$-points of the Kisin–Pappas integral models of Shimura varieties of Hodge type with parahoric level. We show that if the group is quasi-split, then every isogeny class contains the reduction of a CM point, proving a conjecture of Kisin–Madapusi–Shin. We, furthermore, show that the mod p isogeny classes are of the form predicted by the Langlands–Rapoport conjecture (cf. Conjecture 9.2 of [Rap05]) if either the Shimura variety is proper or if the group at p is unramified. The main ingredient in our work is a global argument that allows us to reduce the conjecture to the case of very special parahoric level. This case is dealt with in the Appendix by Zhou. As a corollary to our arguments, we determine the connected components of Ekedahl–Oort strata.

We introduce and study the notion of a generalised Hecke orbit in a Shimura variety. We define a height function on such an orbit and study its properties. We obtain lower bounds for the sizes of Galois orbits of points in a generalised Hecke orbit in terms of this height function, assuming the ‘weakly adelic Mumford–Tate hypothesis’ and prove the generalised André–Pink–Zannier conjecture under this assumption, using Pila–Zannier strategy.

We prove several boundedness statements for geometrically integral normal del Pezzo surfaces X over arbitrary fields. We give an explicit sharp bound on the irregularity if X is canonical or regular. In particular, we show that wild canonical del Pezzo surfaces exist only in characteristic $2$. As an application, we deduce that canonical del Pezzo surfaces form a bounded family over $\mathbb {Z}$, generalising work of Tanaka. More generally, we prove the BAB conjecture on the boundedness of $\varepsilon $-klt del Pezzo surfaces over arbitrary fields of characteristic different from $2, 3$ and $5$.

Inspired by K. Fujita's algebro-geometric result that complex projective space has maximal degree among all K-semistable complex Fano varieties, we conjecture that the height of a K-semistable metrized arithmetic Fano variety $\mathcal {X}$ of relative dimension $n$ is maximal when $\mathcal {X}$ is the projective space over the integers, endowed with the Fubini–Study metric. Our main result establishes the conjecture for the canonical integral model of a toric Fano variety when $n\leq 6$ (the extension to higher dimensions is conditioned on a conjectural ‘gap hypothesis’ for the degree). Translated into toric Kähler geometry, this result yields a sharp lower bound on a toric invariant introduced by Donaldson, defined as the minimum of the toric Mabuchi functional. Furthermore, we reformulate our conjecture as an optimal lower bound on Odaka's modular height. In any dimension $n$ it is shown how to control the height of the canonical toric model $\mathcal {X},$ with respect to the Kähler–Einstein metric, by the degree of $\mathcal {X}$. In a sequel to this paper our height conjecture is established for any projective diagonal Fano hypersurface, by exploiting a more general logarithmic setup.

For $2 \leq d \leq 5$, we show that the class of the Hurwitz space of smooth degree $d$, genus $g$ covers of $\mathbb {P}^1$ stabilizes in the Grothendieck ring of stacks as $g \to \infty$, and we give a formula for the limit. We also verify this stabilization when one imposes ramification conditions on the covers, and obtain a particularly simple answer for this limit when one restricts to simply branched covers.