Consider the following experiment: a deck with m copies of n different card types is randomly shuffled, and a guesser attempts to guess the cards sequentially as they are drawn. Each time a guess is made, some amount of ‘feedback’ is given. For example, one could tell the guesser the true identity of the card they just guessed (the complete feedback model) or they could be told nothing at all (the no feedback model). In this paper we explore a partial feedback model, where upon guessing a card, the guesser is only told whether or not their guess was correct. We show in this setting that, uniformly in n, at most $m+O(m^{3/4}\log m)$ cards can be guessed correctly in expectation. This resolves a question of Diaconis and Graham from 1981, where even the $m=2$ case was open.

We explore the tree limits recently defined by Elek and Tardos. In particular, we find tree limits for many classes of random trees. We give general theorems for three classes of conditional Galton–Watson trees and simply generated trees, for split trees and generalized split trees (as defined here), and for trees defined by a continuous-time branching process. These general results include, for example, random labelled trees, ordered trees, random recursive trees, preferential attachment trees, and binary search trees.

A shared ledger is a record of transactions that can be updated by any member of a group of users. The notion of independent and consistent record-keeping in a shared ledger is important for blockchain and more generally for distributed ledger technologies. In this paper we analyze a stochastic model for the shared ledger known as the tangle, which was devised as the basis for the IOTA cryptocurrency. The model is a random directed acyclic graph, and its growth is described by a non-Markovian stochastic process. We first prove ergodicity of the stochastic process, and then derive a delay differential equation for the fluid model which describes the tangle at high arrival rate. We prove convergence in probability of the tangle process to the fluid model, and also prove global stability of the fluid model. The convergence proof relies on martingale techniques.

This study presents functional limit theorems for the Euler characteristic of Vietoris–Rips complexes. The points are drawn from a nonhomogeneous Poisson process on $\mathbb{R}^d$, and the connectivity radius governing the formation of simplices is taken as a function of the time parameter t, which allows us to treat the Euler characteristic as a stochastic process. The setting in which this takes place is that of the critical regime, in which the simplicial complexes are highly connected and have nontrivial topology. We establish two ‘functional-level’ limit theorems, a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem, for the appropriately normalized Euler characteristic process.

We give a new method of proof for a result of D. Pierre-Loti-Viaud and P. Boulongne which can be seen as a generalization of a characterization of Poisson law due to Rényi and Srivastava. We also provide explicit formulas, in terms of Bell polynomials, for the moments of the compound distributions occurring in the extended collective model in non-life insurance.

Let ${\mathbb{P}}(ord\pi = ord\pi ')$ be the probability that two independent, uniformly random permutations of [n] have the same order. Answering a question of Thibault Godin, we prove that ${\mathbb{P}}(ord\pi = ord\pi ') = {n^{ - 2 + o(1)}}$ and that ${\mathbb{P}}(ord\pi = ord\pi ') \ge {1 \over 2}{n^{ - 2}}lg*n$ for infinitely many n. (Here lg*n is the height of the tallest tower of twos that is less than or equal to n.)

It is well-known that in a small Pólya urn, i.e., an urn where the second largest real part of an eigenvalue is at most half the largest eigenvalue, the distribution of the numbers of balls of different colours in the urn is asymptotically normal under weak additional conditions. We consider the balanced case, and then give asymptotics of the mean and the covariance matrix, showing that after appropriate normalization, the mean and covariance matrix converge to the mean and covariance matrix of the limiting normal distribution.

Consider a Pólya urn with balls of several colours, where balls are drawn sequentially and each drawn ball is immediately replaced together with a fixed number of balls of the same colour. It is well known that the proportions of balls of the different colours converge in distribution to a Dirichlet distribution. We show that the rate of convergence is $\Theta(1/n)$ in the minimal $L_p$ metric for any $p\in[1,\infty]$, extending a result by Goldstein and Reinert; we further show the same rate for the Lévy distance, while the rate for the Kolmogorov distance depends on the parameters, i.e. on the initial composition of the urn. The method used here differs from the one used by Goldstein and Reinert, and uses direct calculations based on the known exact distributions.

For an infinite Toeplitz matrix T with nonnegative real entries we find the conditions under which the equation $\boldsymbol {x}=T\boldsymbol {x}$, where $\boldsymbol {x}$ is an infinite vector column, has a nontrivial bounded positive solution. The problem studied in this paper is associated with the asymptotic behaviour of convolution-type recurrence relations and can be applied to problems arising in the theory of stochastic processes and other areas.

It is known that for Kn,n equipped with i.i.d. exp (1) edge costs, the minimum total cost of a perfect matching converges to $\zeta(2)=\pi^2/6$ in probability. Similar convergence has been established for all edge cost distributions of pseudo-dimension $q \geq 1$. In this paper we extend those results to all real positive q, confirming the Mézard–Parisi conjecture in the last remaining applicable case.

We introduce a non-increasing tree growth process $((T_n,{\sigma}_n),\, n\ge 1)$, where Tn is a rooted labelled tree on n vertices and σn is a permutation of the vertex labels. The construction of (Tn, σn) from (Tn−1, σn−1) involves rewiring a random (possibly empty) subset of edges in Tn−1 towards the newly added vertex; as a consequence Tn−1 ⊄ Tn with positive probability. The key feature of the process is that the shape of Tn has the same law as that of a random recursive tree, while the degree distribution of any given vertex is not monotone in the process.

We present two applications. First, while couplings between Kingman’s coalescent and random recursive trees were known for any fixed n, this new process provides a non-standard coupling of all finite Kingman’s coalescents. Second, we use the new process and the Chen–Stein method to extend the well-understood properties of degree distribution of random recursive trees to extremal-range cases. Namely, we obtain convergence rates on the number of vertices with degree at least $c\ln n$, c ∈ (1, 2), in trees with n vertices. Further avenues of research are discussed.

We study the scaling limit of a random forest with prescribed degree sequence in the regime that the largest tree consists of all but a vanishing fraction of nodes. We give a description of the limit of the forest consisting of the small trees, by relating a plane forest to a marked cyclic forest and its corresponding skip-free walk.

We introduce a class of non-uniform random recursive trees grown with an attachment preference for young age. Via the Chen–Stein method of Poisson approximation, we find that the outdegree of a node is characterized in the limit by ‘perturbed’ Poisson laws, and the perturbation diminishes as the node index increases. As the perturbation is attenuated, a pure Poisson limit ultimately emerges in later phases. Moreover, we derive asymptotics for the proportion of leaves and show that the limiting fraction is less than one half. Finally, we study the insertion depth in a random tree in this class. For the insertion depth, we find the exact probability distribution, involving Stirling numbers, and consequently we find the exact and asymptotic mean and variance. Under appropriate normalization, we derive a concentration law and a limiting normal distribution. Some of these results contrast with their counterparts in the uniform attachment model, and some are similar.

In this paper we study first passage percolation on a random graph model, the configuration model. We first introduce the notions of weighted diameter, which is the maximum of the weighted lengths of all optimal paths between any two vertices in the graph, and the flooding time, which represents the time (weighted length) needed to reach all the vertices in the graph starting from a uniformly chosen vertex. Our result consists in describing the asymptotic behavior of the diameter and the flooding time, as the number of vertices n tends to infinity, in the case where the weight distribution G has an exponential tail behavior, and proving that this category of distributions is the largest possible for which the asymptotic behavior holds.

We show that the Mallows measure on permutations of $1,\dots ,n$ arises as the law of the unique Gale–Shapley stable matching of the random bipartite graph with vertex set conditioned to be perfect, where preferences arise from the natural total ordering of the vertices of each gender but are restricted to the (random) edges of the graph. We extend this correspondence to infinite intervals, for which the situation is more intricate. We prove that almost surely, every stable matching of the random bipartite graph obtained by performing Bernoulli percolation on the complete bipartite graph $K_{{\mathbb Z},{\mathbb Z}}$ falls into one of two classes: a countable family $(\sigma _n)_{n\in {\mathbb Z}}$ of tame stable matchings, in which the length of the longest edge crossing k is $O(\log |k|)$ as $k\to \pm \infty $, and an uncountable family of wild stable matchings, in which this length is $\exp \Omega (k)$ as $k\to +\infty $. The tame stable matching $\sigma _n$ has the law of the Mallows permutation of ${\mathbb Z}$ (as constructed by Gnedin and Olshanski) composed with the shift $k\mapsto k+n$. The permutation $\sigma _{n+1}$ dominates $\sigma _{n}$ pointwise, and the two permutations are related by a shift along a random strictly increasing sequence.

A uniform recursive tree on n vertices is a random tree where each possible $(n-1)!$ labelled recursive rooted tree is selected with equal probability. We introduce and study weighted trees, a non-uniform recursive tree model departing from the recently introduced Hoppe trees. This class generalizes both uniform recursive trees and Hoppe trees, providing diversity among the nodes and making the model more flexible for applications. We analyse the number of leaves, the height, the depth, the number of branches, and the size of the largest branch in these weighted trees.

Let V be an n-set, and let X be a random variable taking values in the power-set of V. Suppose we are given a sequence of random coupons $X_1, X_2, \ldots $, where the $X_i$ are independent random variables with distribution given by X. The covering time T is the smallest integer $t\geq 0$ such that $\bigcup_{i=1}^t X_i=V$. The distribution of T is important in many applications in combinatorial probability, and has been extensively studied. However the literature has focused almost exclusively on the case where X is assumed to be symmetric and/or uniform in some way.

In this paper we study the covering time for much more general random variables X; we give general criteria for T being sharply concentrated around its mean, precise tools to estimate that mean, as well as examples where T fails to be concentrated and when structural properties in the distribution of X allow for a very different behaviour of T relative to the symmetric/uniform case.

We study random unlabelled k-trees by combining the colouring approach by Gainer-Dewar and Gessel (2014) with the cycle-pointing method by Bodirsky, Fusy, Kang and Vigerske (2011). Our main applications are Gromov–Hausdorff–Prokhorov and Benjamini–Schramm limits that describe their asymptotic geometric shape on a global and local scale as the number of (k + 1)-cliques tends to infinity.

We introduce a model for the spreading of fake news in a community of size n. There are $j_n = \alpha n - g_n$ active gullible persons who are willing to believe and spread the fake news, the rest do not react to it. We address the question ‘How long does it take for $r = \rho n - h_n$ persons to become spreaders?’ (The perturbation functions $g_n$ and $h_n$ are o(n), and $0\le \rho \le \alpha\le 1$.) The setup has a straightforward representation as a convolution of geometric random variables with quadratic probabilities. However, asymptotic distributions require delicate analysis that gives a somewhat surprising outcome. Normalized appropriately, the waiting time has three main phases: (a) away from the depletion of active gullible persons, when $0< \rho < \alpha$, the normalized variable converges in distribution to a Gumbel random variable; (b) near depletion, when $0< \rho = \alpha$, with $h_n - g_n \to \infty$, the normalized variable also converges in distribution to a Gumbel random variable, but the centering function gains weight with increasing perturbations; (c) at almost complete depletion, when $r = j -c$, for integer $c\ge 0$, the normalized variable converges in distribution to a convolution of two independent generalized Gumbel random variables. The influence of various perturbation functions endows the three main phases with an infinite number of phase transitions at the seam lines.

The main result of this note implies that any function from the product of several vector spaces to a vector space can be uniquely decomposed into the sum of mutually orthogonal functions that are odd in some of the arguments and even in the other arguments. Probabilistic notions and facts are employed to simplify statements and proofs.