Consider the following migration process based on a closed network of N queues with $K_N$ customers. Each station is a $\cdot$/M/$\infty$ queue with service (or migration) rate $\mu$. Upon departure, a customer is routed independently and uniformly at random to another station. In addition to migration, these customers are subject to a susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS) dynamics. That is, customers are in one of two states: I for infected, or S for susceptible. Customers can swap their state either from I to S or from S to I only in stations. More precisely, at any station, each susceptible customer becomes infected with the instantaneous rate $\alpha Y$ if there are Y infected customers in the station, whereas each infected customer recovers and becomes susceptible with rate $\beta$. We let N tend to infinity and assume that $\lim_{N\to \infty} K_N/N= \eta $, where $\eta$ is a positive constant representing the customer density. The main problem of interest concerns the set of parameters of such a system for which there exists a stationary regime where the epidemic survives in the limiting system. The latter limit will be referred to as the thermodynamic limit. We use coupling and stochastic monotonicity arguments to establish key properties of the associated Markov processes, which in turn allow us to give the structure of the phase transition diagram of this thermodynamic limit with respect to $\eta$. The analysis of the Kolmogorov equations of this SIS model reduces to that of a wave-type PDE for which we have found no explicit solution. This plain SIS model is one among several companion stochastic processes that exhibit both random migration and contagion. Two of them are discussed in the present paper as they provide variants to the plain SIS model as well as some bounds and approximations. These two variants are the departure-on-change-of-state (DOCS) model and the averaged-infection-rate (AIR) model, which both admit closed-form solutions. The AIR system is a classical mean-field model where the infection mechanism based on the actual population of infected customers is replaced by a mechanism based on some empirical average of the number of infected customers in all stations. The latter admits a product-form solution. DOCS features accelerated migration in that each change of SIS state implies an immediate departure. This model leads to another wave-type PDE that admits a closed-form solution. In this text, the main focus is on the closed stochastic networks and their limits. The open systems consisting of a single station with Poisson input are instrumental in the analysis of the thermodynamic limits and are also of independent interest. This class of SIS dynamics has incarnations in virtually all queueing networks of the literature.

Scabies is a parasitic infestation with high global burden. Mass drug administrations (MDAs) are recommended for communities with a scabies prevalence of >10%. Quantitative analyses are needed to demonstrate the likely effectiveness of MDA recommendations. In this study, we developed an agent-based model of scabies transmission calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data from Monrovia. We used this model to compare the effectiveness of MDA scenarios for achieving scabies elimination and reducing scabies burden, as measured by time until recrudescence following delivery of an MDA and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) averted. Our model showed that three rounds of MDA delivered at six-month intervals and reaching 80% of the population could reduce prevalence below 2% for three years following the final round, before recrudescence. When MDAs were followed by increased treatment uptake, prevalence was maintained below 2% indefinitely. Increasing the number of and coverage of MDA rounds increased the probability of achieving elimination and the number of DALYs averted. Our results suggest that acute reduction of scabies prevalence by MDA can support a transition to improved treatment access. This study demonstrates how modelling can be used to estimate the expected impact of MDAs by projecting future epidemiological dynamics and health gains under alternative scenarios.

Data has become a critical trans-national and cross-border resource. Yet, the lack of a well-defined approach to using it poses challenges to harnessing its value. This article explores the increasing importance of global data governance due to the rapid growth of data, and the need for responsible data practices. The purpose of this paper is to compare approaches and identify patterns in the emergent data governance ecosystem within sectors close to the international development field, ultimately presenting key takeaways and reflections on when and why a global data governance framework may be needed. Overall, the paper provides information about the conditions when a more holistic, coordinated transnational approach to data governance may be needed to responsibly manage the global flow of data. The report does this by (a) considering conditions specified by the literature that may be conducive to global data governance, and (b) analyzing and comparing existing frameworks, specifically investigating six key elements: purpose, principles, anchoring documents, data description and lifecycle, processes, and practices. The article closes with a series of final recommendations, which include adopting a broader concept of data stewardship to reconcile data protection and promotion, focusing on responsible reuse of data to unlock socioeconomic value, harmonizing meanings to operationalize principles, incorporating global human rights frameworks to provide common North Stars, unifying key definitions of data, adopting a data lifecycle approach, incorporating participatory processes and collective agency, investing in new professions with specific roles, improving accountability through oversight and compliance mechanisms, and translating recommendations into practical tools.

Finding paths is a fundamental problem in graph theory and algorithm design due to its many applications. Recently, this problem has been considered on temporal graphs, where edges may change over a discrete time domain. The analysis of graphs has also taken into account the relevance of vertex properties, modeled by assigning to vertices labels or colors. In this work, we deal with a problem that, given a static or temporal graph, whose vertices are colored graph looks for a path such that (1) the vertices of the path have distinct colors and (2) that path includes the maximum number of colors. We analyze the approximation complexity of the problem on static and temporal graphs, and we prove an inapproximability bound. Then, we consider the problem on temporal graphs, and we design a heuristic for it. We present an experimental evaluation of our heuristic, both on synthetic and real-world graphs. The experimental results show that for many instances of the problem, our method is able to return near-optimal solutions.

Previous studies have shown that relationship sentiments in families follow a pattern wherein either all maintain positive relationships or there are two antagonistic factions. This result is consistent with the network theory of structural balance that individuals befriend their friends’ friend and become enemies with their friends’ enemies. Fault lines in families would then endogenously emerge through the same kinds of interactional processes that organize nations into axis and allies. We argue that observed patterns may instead exogenously come about as the result of personal characteristics or homophilous partitions of family members. Disentangling these alternate theoretical possibilities requires longitudinal data. The present study tracks the sentiment dynamics of 1,710 families in a longitudinal panel study. Results show the same static patterns suggestive of balancing processes identified in earlier research, yet dynamic analysis reveals that conflict in families is not generated or resolved in accordance with balance theory.

We propose a family of range-based risk measures to generalize the role of value at risk (VaR) in the formulation of range value at risk (RVaR) considering other risk measures induced by a tail level. We discuss this type of measure in detail and its theoretical properties and representations. Moreover, we present a score function to evaluate the forecasts of these measures. In order to present the proposed concepts in an applied way, we performed illustrations using Monte Carlo simulations and real financial data.

Many international organisations have recently acknowledged the significance of whistleblowing in preventing institutional corruption, particularly in the public sector. Likewise, many countries have enacted whistleblower protection laws, though a robust whistleblower protection system certainly requires much more than legislation. One challenge in developing effective protection systems is finding empirical evidence to evaluate existing systems. Can we measure the effectiveness of whistleblower protection systems accross different countries? What conditions do we need to make the whistleblower protection system work effectively in the public sector? This paper investigates two cases: South Korea and the Republic of Kosovo. South Korean data comes from the Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission of South Korea, while its counterpart from Kosovo comes from a survey of 400 public officials about whistleblower protection. By analysing both datasets, this paper creates a new index that evaluates the effectiveness of whistleblower protection. Composed of quantitative and qualitative sub-indices, the index serves as a digital comparison tool for assessing whistleblower protection systems across different countries and at different times. In addition to enacting high-quality laws, this index identifies several additional measures that can strengthen whistleblower protection systems in the public sector.

The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to the irrational use of drugs in the absence of clinical management guidelines. Access to individual participant data (IPD) from clinical trials aids the evidence synthesis approaches. We undertook a rapid review to infer IPD sharing intentions based on data availability statements by the principal investigators (PIs) of drug and vaccine trials in the context of COVID-19.

Searches were conducted on PubMed (NCBI). We considered randomized controlled trial (RCT) publications from January 1, 2020, to October 31, 2021. IPD sharing intentions were inferred based on the data availability statements in the full-text manuscript publications. We included 180 articles. Of these, 81.7% (147/180) of the publications have arrived from the findings of the RCTs alone, 12.8% (23/180) of the publications were protocol publications alone, and 5.6% (10/180) of the RCTs had both published protocol and publication from the trial findings. We have reported IPD sharing intentions separately in RCT protocol publications (n = 23 + 10) and publications from RCT findings (n = 147 + 10). Among RCT protocol publications, one-third (11/33) of the PIs intended to share IPD. In fact, over half of the PIs (52.2%, 82/157) in their published RCT findings intended to share IPD. However, information to share about IPD was missing for 57.6% (19/33) of RCT protocols and 38.2% (60/157) of published RCT findings.

Stakeholders must work together to ensure that overarching factors, such as legislation that governs clinical trial practices, are streamlined to bolster IPD sharing mechanisms.

Bacterial antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is among the leading global health challenges of the century. Animals and their products are known contributors to the human AMR burden, but the extent of this contribution is not clear. This systematic literature review aimed to identify studies investigating the direct impact of animal sources, defined as livestock, aquaculture, pets, and animal-based food, on human AMR. We searched four scientific databases and identified 31 relevant publications, including 12 risk assessments, 16 source attribution studies, and three other studies. Most studies were published between 2012 and 2022, and most came from Europe and North America, but we also identified five articles from South and South-East Asia. The studies differed in their methodologies, conceptual approaches (bottom-up, top-down, and complex), definitions of the AMR hazard and outcome, the number and type of sources they addressed, and the outcome measures they reported. The most frequently addressed animal source was chicken, followed by cattle and pigs. Most studies investigated bacteria–resistance combinations. Overall, studies on the direct contribution of animal sources of AMR are rare but increasing. More recent publications tailor their methodologies increasingly towards the AMR hazard as a whole, providing grounds for future research to build on.

SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spreads among humans via social networks, with social mixing and network characteristics potentially facilitating transmission. However, limited data on topological structural features has hindered in-depth studies. Existing research is based on snapshot analyses, preventing temporal investigations of network changes. Comparing network characteristics over time offers additional insights into transmission dynamics. We examined confirmed COVID-19 patients from an eastern Chinese province, analyzing social mixing and network characteristics using transmission network topology before and after widespread interventions. Between the two time periods, the percentage of singleton networks increased from 38.9$ \% $ to 62.8$ \% $$ (p<0.001) $; the average shortest path length decreased from 1.53 to 1.14 $ (p<0.001) $; the average betweenness reduced from 0.65 to 0.11$ (p<0.001) $; the average cluster size dropped from 4.05 to 2.72 $ (p=0.004) $; and the out-degree had a slight but nonsignificant decline from 0.75 to 0.63 $ (p=0.099). $ Results show that nonpharmaceutical interventions effectively disrupted transmission networks, preventing further disease spread. Additionally, we found that the networks’ dynamic structure provided more information than solely examining infection curves after applying descriptive and agent-based modeling approaches. In summary, we investigated social mixing and network characteristics of COVID-19 patients during different pandemic stages, revealing transmission network heterogeneities.

In this paper, several linear two-dimensional consecutive k-type systems are studied, which include the linear connected-(k, r)-out-of-$(m,n)\colon\! F$ system and the linear l-connected-(k, r)-out-of-$(m,n)\colon\! F$ system without/with overlapping. Reliabilities of these systems are studied via the finite Markov chain imbedding approach (FMCIA) in a novel way. Some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results established here and also to demonstrate the efficiency of the developed method. Finally, some possible applications and generalizations of the developed results are pointed out.

National vaccination programmes recommend the influenza vaccine for older adults, but this population group has the greatest morbidity and mortality from other preventable vaccine diseases. The aim of this article is to estimate the vaccine coverage in adults aged 65 years and older and to analyse the factors that could increase or decrease vaccination uptake probability for the three listed vaccines in the national vaccination programme (influenza, tetanus and diphtheria, and pneumococcus) and the full scheme in Mexico. We conducted an analytical cross-sectional study with 2012, 2018, and 2021 rounds from the National Health and Nutrition Survey, in which we calculated the vaccine coverage estimations and performed multivariable logistic regression models to analyse the factors related to vaccine uptake. Tetanus and diphtheria vaccines had the greatest coverage estimation in all years (59–71%), whereas the pneumococcus vaccine had the lowest (32–53%). Full scheme vaccine coverage decreased from 37.80% to 24.77% in 2012 and 2021, respectively. The National Health Card property, morbidity, being a beneficiary of any health system institution, and use of preventive services increased the probability of vaccine uptake. In conclusion, vaccine coverage in older Mexican adults decreased over time, and the Mexican health system plays a strategic role in immunisation.

We demonstrate a quasipolynomial-time deterministic approximation algorithm for the partition function of a Gibbs point process interacting via a stable potential. This result holds for all activities $\lambda$ for which the partition function satisfies a zero-free assumption in a neighbourhood of the interval $[0,\lambda ]$. As a corollary, for all finiterange stable potentials, we obtain a quasipolynomial-time deterministic algorithm for all $\lambda \lt 1/(e^{B + 1} \hat C_\phi )$ where $\hat C_\phi$ is a temperedness parameter and $B$ is the stability constant of $\phi$. In the special case of a repulsive potential such as the hard-sphere gas we improve the range of activity by a factor of at least $e^2$ and obtain a quasipolynomial-time deterministic approximation algorithm for all $\lambda \lt e/\Delta _\phi$, where $\Delta _\phi$ is the potential-weighted connective constant of the potential $\phi$. Our algorithm approximates coefficients of the cluster expansion of the partition function and uses the interpolation method of Barvinok to extend this approximation throughout the zero-free region.