We propose a stochastic model for the failure times of items subject to two external random shocks occurring as events in an underlying bivariate counting process. This is a special formulation of the competing risks model, which is of interest in reliability theory and survival analysis. Specifically, we assume that a system, or an item, fails when the sum of the two types of shock reaches a critical random threshold. In detail, the two kinds of shock occur according to a bivariate space-fractional Poisson process, which is a two-dimensional vector of independent homogeneous Poisson processes time-changed by an independent stable subordinator. Various results are given, such as analytic hazard rates, failure densities, the probability that the failure occurs due to a specific type of shock, and the survival function. Some special cases and ageing notions related to the NBU characterization are also considered. In this way we generalize certain results in the literature, which can be recovered when the underlying process reduces to the homogeneous Poisson process.

Despite the importance of diverse expertise in helping solve difficult interdisciplinary problems, measuring it is challenging and often relies on proxy measures and presumptive correlates of actual knowledge and experience. To address this challenge, we propose a text-based measure that uses researcher’s prior work to estimate their substantive expertise. These expertise estimates are then used to measure team-level expertise diversity by determining similarity or dissimilarity in members’ prior knowledge and skills. Using this measure on 2.8 million team invented patents granted by the US Patent Office, we show evidence of trends in expertise diversity over time and across team sizes, as well as its relationship with the quality and impact of a team’s innovation output.

The 2011 policy pivot of the German government, from extending nuclear power plants terms to securing their shutdown for 2022, cannot be explained without looking at how the German political discourse network shifted in the months following Fukushima. This paper seeks to model and identify mechanisms that help explain how the two-mode network of political actors’ support for claims developed. We identify possible mechanisms to explain discourse dynamics from literature on political discourse and discourse networks, and extend homophily mechanisms to two-mode networks as “tertius” effects. We then introduce and employ a multimodal extension of dynamic network actor models to answer two questions key to how the discourse has evolved: which actors support claims more frequently and which claims they support. Our results indicate that mechanisms vary according to the discursive phase, but that powerful actors participate in the discourse more often, and actors tend to support claims that have already found support by cross-party coalitions. These are the two most prominent mechanisms that help to explain the dramatic nuclear policy change in Germany after Fukushima.

We present a reflection principle for a wide class of symmetric random motions with finite velocities. We propose a deterministic argument which is then applied to trajectories of stochastic processes. In the case of symmetric correlated random walks and the symmetric telegraph process, we provide a probabilistic result recalling the classical reflection principle for Brownian motion, but where the initial velocity has a crucial role. In the case of the telegraph process we also present some consequences which lead to further reflection-type characteristics of the motion.

Tree trace reconstruction aims to learn the binary node labels of a tree, given independent samples of the tree passed through an appropriately defined deletion channel. In recent work, Davies, Rácz, and Rashtchian [10] used combinatorial methods to show that $\exp({\mathrm{O}} (k \log_{k} n))$ samples suffice to reconstruct a complete k-ary tree with n nodes with high probability. We provide an alternative proof of this result, which allows us to generalize it to a broader class of tree topologies and deletion models. In our proofs we introduce the notion of a subtrace, which enables us to connect with and generalize recent mean-based complex analytic algorithms for string trace reconstruction.

Let $G=(V,E)$ be a countable graph. The Bunkbed graph of $G$ is the product graph $G \times K_2$, which has vertex set $V\times \{0,1\}$ with “horizontal” edges inherited from $G$ and additional “vertical” edges connecting $(w,0)$ and $(w,1)$ for each $w \in V$. Kasteleyn’s Bunkbed conjecture states that for each $u,v \in V$ and $p\in [0,1]$, the vertex $(u,0)$ is at least as likely to be connected to $(v,0)$ as to $(v,1)$ under Bernoulli-$p$ bond percolation on the bunkbed graph. We prove that the conjecture holds in the $p \uparrow 1$ limit in the sense that for each finite graph $G$ there exists $\varepsilon (G)\gt 0$ such that the bunkbed conjecture holds for $p \geqslant 1-\varepsilon (G)$.

Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae) is one of the most common community-associated pathogens responsible for pneumonia in children. This retrospective study aimed to investigate the molecular characteristics of S. pneumoniae isolated from children with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) under 5 years in Chengdu, China. Molecular characteristics of S. pneumoniae included serotype and virulence factor performed by using PCR method and sequence types (STs) determined by sequencing seven housekeeping genes. In addition, the potential relationships between molecular characteristics were depicted by minimum spanning tree and correspondence analysis. The prevailing serotypes were 19F (18.52%), 6B (17.59%), 19A (13.89%), 6A (6.48%) and 23F (5.56%) among 108 isolates. The overall coverage rates of 7-valent, 10-valent, 13-valent, 15-valent and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were 47.32, 48.1, 75, 75 and 78.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, the coverage rates of PCV13 among the isolates from CAP patients aged <1 year were high up to 84.2%. MLST analysis results showed that there were 56 different STs identified, of which the dominant STs were ST271 (22.22%) and ST320 (12.04%). Five international clones among STs were observed, including Spain23F‐1, Spain6B‐2, Taiwan19F‐14, Netherlands3‐31 and Denmark14‐32. Additionally, most of the isolates carried ply, psaA, nanA, pavA, piaA and CC271 isolates expressed more of nanA than non-CC271 isolates. Moreover, there were strong relevant relationships among STs, serotypes and virulence factors. Considering serotypes and virulence factors together can be used as the foundation for the formulation of vaccine strategy.

In Sudan, data on varicella infections are lacking and the vaccine is currently not in use. The aim of this study was to investigate previous exposure to varicella zoster virus (VZV) among children and adults from the general population and among health-care workers (HCWs) in Khartoum. Dried blood spot samples collected between 2015 and 2016 from 294 children aged 1‒15 years, 153 adult volunteers and 241 HCWs were investigated for the presence of VZV IgG antibodies using ELISA. The overall seroprevalence of VZV IgG antibodies among the investigated cohorts was 50.4%, ranging between 14.3% in children and 79.3% in HCWs. Seropositivity increased with age among children and HCWs (P ⩽ 0.05). A relatively low seropositivity (64.7%) was observed among young adults and HCWs, suggesting that a high proportion of Sudanese adults remain susceptible. In hospital settings, this result implies a risk of nosocomial infection involving both HCWs and vulnerable patients. The results of this first VZV study in Sudan suggest active virus circulation in different age groups. Especially HCWs at the start of their career might benefit from vaccination, not only to save themselves from herpes zoster and its sequelae, but also to indirectly protect vulnerable patients.

We assessed patterns of enteric infections caused by 14 pathogens, in a longitudinal cohort study of sequelae in British Columbia (BC) Canada, 2005–2014. Our population cohort of 5.8 million individuals was followed for an average of 7.5 years/person; during this time, 40 523 individuals experienced 42 308 incident laboratory-confirmed, provincially reported enteric infections (96.4 incident infections per 100 000 person-years). Most individuals (38 882/40 523; 96%) had only one, but 4% had multiple concurrent infections or more than one infection across the study. Among individuals with more than one infection, the pathogens and combinations occurring most frequently per individual matched the pathogens occurring most frequently in the BC population. An additional 298 557 new fee-for-service physician visits and hospitalisations for enteric infections, that did not coincide with a reported enteric infection, also occurred, and some may be potentially unreported enteric infections. Our findings demonstrate that sequelae risk analyses should explore the possible impacts of multiple infections, and that estimating risk for individuals who may have had a potentially unreported enteric infection is warranted.