This article describes the limiting distribution of the extremes of observations that arrive in clusters. We start by studying the tail behaviour of an individual cluster, and then we apply the developed theory to determine the limiting distribution of $\max\{X_j\,:\, j=0,\ldots, K(t)\}$, where K(t) is the number of independent and identically distributed observations $(X_j)$ arriving up to the time t according to a general marked renewal cluster process. The results are illustrated in the context of some commonly used Poisson cluster models such as the marked Hawkes process.

We study Bose gases in $d \ge 2$ dimensions with short-range repulsive pair interactions at positive temperature, in the canonical ensemble and in the thermodynamic limit. We assume the presence of hard Poissonian obstacles and focus on the non-percolation regime. For sufficiently strong interparticle interactions, we show that almost surely there cannot be Bose–Einstein condensation into a sufficiently localized, normalized one-particle state. The results apply to the canonical eigenstates of the underlying one-particle Hamiltonian.

We study a multivariate system over a finite lifespan represented by a Hermitian-valued random matrix process whose eigenvalues (i) interact in a mean-field way and (ii) converge to their weighted ensemble average at their terminal time. We prove that such a system is guaranteed to converge in time to the identity matrix that is scaled by a Gaussian random variable whose variance is inversely proportional to the dimension of the matrix. As the size of the system grows asymptotically, the eigenvalues tend to mutually independent diffusions that converge to zero at their terminal time, a Brownian bridge being the archetypal example. Unlike commonly studied random matrices that have non-colliding eigenvalues, the proposed eigenvalues of the given system here may collide. We provide the dynamics of the eigenvalue gap matrix, which is a random skew-symmetric matrix that converges in time to the $\textbf{0}$ matrix. Our framework can be applied in producing mean-field interacting counterparts of stochastic quantum reduction models for which the convergence points are determined with respect to the average state of the entire composite system.

We study generalizations of the forest fire model introduced in [4] and [10] by allowing the rates at which the trees grow to depend on their location, introducing long-range burning, as well as a continuous-space generalization of the model. We establish that in all the models in consideration the expected time required to reach a site at distance x from the origin is of order $(\!\log x)^{(\!\log2)^{-1}+\delta}$ for any $\delta>0$.

Let X be a continuous-time strongly mixing or weakly dependent process and let T be a renewal process independent of X. We show general conditions under which the sampled process $(X_{T_i},T_i-T_{i-1})^{\top}$ is strongly mixing or weakly dependent. Moreover, we explicitly compute the strong mixing or weak dependence coefficients of the renewal sampled process and show that exponential or power decay of the coefficients of X is preserved (at least asymptotically). Our results imply that essentially all central limit theorems available in the literature for strongly mixing or weakly dependent processes can be applied when renewal sampled observations of the process X are at our disposal.

The existence of moments of first downward passage times of a spectrally negative Lévy process is governed by the general dynamics of the Lévy process, i.e. whether it is drifting to $+\infty$, $-\infty$, or oscillating. Whenever the Lévy process drifts to $+\infty$, we prove that the $\kappa$th moment of the first passage time (conditioned to be finite) exists if and only if the $(\kappa+1)$th moment of the Lévy jump measure exists. This generalizes a result shown earlier by Delbaen for Cramér–Lundberg risk processes. Whenever the Lévy process drifts to $-\infty$, we prove that all moments of the first passage time exist, while for an oscillating Lévy process we derive conditions for non-existence of the moments, and in particular we show that no integer moments exist.

We establish exponential ergodicity for a class of Markov processes with interactions, including two-factor type processes and Gruschin type processes. The proof is elementary and direct via the Markov coupling technique.

We present a reflection principle for a wide class of symmetric random motions with finite velocities. We propose a deterministic argument which is then applied to trajectories of stochastic processes. In the case of symmetric correlated random walks and the symmetric telegraph process, we provide a probabilistic result recalling the classical reflection principle for Brownian motion, but where the initial velocity has a crucial role. In the case of the telegraph process we also present some consequences which lead to further reflection-type characteristics of the motion.

Growth-fragmentation processes describe the evolution of systems in which cells grow slowly and fragment suddenly. Despite originating as a way to describe biological phenomena, they have recently been found to describe the lengths of certain curves in statistical physics models. In this note, we describe a new growth-fragmentation process connected to random planar maps with faces of large degree, having as a key ingredient the ricocheted stable process recently discovered by Budd. The process has applications to the excursions of planar Brownian motion and Liouville quantum gravity.

Let $n\geq 2$ random lines intersect a planar convex domain D. Consider the probabilities $p_{nk}$, $k=0,1, \ldots, {n(n-1)}/{2}$ that the lines produce exactly k intersection points inside D. The objective is finding $p_{nk}$ through geometric invariants of D. Using Ambartzumian’s combinatorial algorithm, the known results are instantly reestablished for $n=2, 3$. When $n=4$, these probabilities are expressed by new invariants of D. When D is a disc of radius r, the simplest forms of all invariants are found. The exact values of $p_{3k}$ and $p_{4k}$ are established.

We consider the asset price as the weak solution to a stochastic differential equation driven by both a Brownian motion and the counting process martingale whose predictable compensator follows shot-noise and Hawkes processes. In this framework, we discuss the Esscher martingale measure where the conditions for its existence are detailed. This generalizes certain relationships not yet encountered in the literature.

We consider a risk model with a counting process whose intensity is a Markovian shot-noise process, to resolve one of the disadvantages of the Cramér–Lundberg model, namely the constant intensity of the Poisson process. Due to this structure, we can apply the theory of piecewise deterministic Markov processes on a multivariate process containing the intensity and the reserve process, which allows us to identify a family of martingales. Eventually, we use change of measure techniques to derive an upper bound for the ruin probability in this model. Exploiting a recurrent structure of the shot-noise process, even the asymptotic behaviour of the ruin probability can be determined.

We consider a Lévy process Y(t) that is not continuously observed, but rather inspected at Poisson($\omega$) moments only, over an exponentially distributed time $T_\beta$ with parameter $\beta$. The focus lies on the analysis of the distribution of the running maximum at such inspection moments up to $T_\beta$, denoted by $Y_{\beta,\omega}$. Our main result is a decomposition: we derive a remarkable distributional equality that contains $Y_{\beta,\omega}$ as well as the running maximum process $\bar Y(t)$ at the exponentially distributed times $T_\beta$ and $T_{\beta+\omega}$. Concretely, $\overline{Y}(T_\beta)$ can be written as the sum of two independent random variables that are distributed as $Y_{\beta,\omega}$ and $\overline{Y}(T_{\beta+\omega})$. The distribution of $Y_{\beta,\omega}$ can be identified more explicitly in the two special cases of a spectrally positive and a spectrally negative Lévy process. As an illustrative example of the potential of our results, we show how to determine the asymptotic behavior of the bankruptcy probability in the Cramér–Lundberg insurance risk model.

In the classical framework, a random walk on a group is a Markov chain with independent and identically distributed increments. In some sense, random walks are time and space homogeneous. This paper is devoted to a class of inhomogeneous random walks on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ termed ‘Markov additive processes’ (also known as Markov random walks, random walks with internal degrees of freedom, or semi-Markov processes). In this model, the increments of the walk are still independent but their distributions are dictated by a Markov chain, termed the internal Markov chain. While this model is largely studied in the literature, most of the results involve internal Markov chains whose operator is quasi-compact. This paper extends two results for more general internal operators: a local limit theorem and a sufficient criterion for their transience. These results are thereafter applied to a new family of models of drifted random walks on the lattice $\mathbb{Z}^d$.

We prove existence and uniqueness for the solution of a class of mixed fractional stochastic differential equations with discontinuous drift driven by both standard and fractional Brownian motion. Additionally, we establish a generalized Itô rule valid for functions with an absolutely continuous derivative and applicable to solutions of mixed fractional stochastic differential equations with Lipschitz coefficients, which plays a key role in our proof of existence and uniqueness. The proof of such a formula is new and relies on showing the existence of a density of the law under mild assumptions on the diffusion coefficient.

We consider the critical Galton–Watson process with overlapping generations stemming from a single founder. Assuming that both the variance of the offspring number and the average generation length are finite, we establish the convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions, conditioned on non-extinction at a remote time of observation. The limiting process is identified as a pure death process coming down from infinity.

This result brings a new perspective on Vatutin’s dichotomy, claiming that in the critical regime of age-dependent reproduction, an extant population either contains a large number of short-living individuals or consists of few long-living individuals.

Tree trace reconstruction aims to learn the binary node labels of a tree, given independent samples of the tree passed through an appropriately defined deletion channel. In recent work, Davies, Rácz, and Rashtchian [10] used combinatorial methods to show that $\exp({\mathrm{O}} (k \log_{k} n))$ samples suffice to reconstruct a complete k-ary tree with n nodes with high probability. We provide an alternative proof of this result, which allows us to generalize it to a broader class of tree topologies and deletion models. In our proofs we introduce the notion of a subtrace, which enables us to connect with and generalize recent mean-based complex analytic algorithms for string trace reconstruction.

We present a Markov chain example where non-reversibility and an added edge jointly improve mixing time. When a random edge is added to a cycle of n vertices and a Markov chain with a drift is introduced, we get a mixing time of $O(n^{3/2})$ with probability bounded away from 0. If only one of the two modifications were performed, the mixing time would stay $\Omega(n^2)$.

We introduce a variant of Shepp’s classical urn problem in which the optimal stopper does not know whether sampling from the urn is done with or without replacement. By considering the problem’s continuous-time analog, we provide bounds on the value function and, in the case of a balanced urn (with an equal number of each ball type), an explicit solution is found. Surprisingly, the optimal strategy for the balanced urn is the same as in the classical urn problem. However, the expected value upon stopping is lower due to the additional uncertainty present.

We consider the random splitting and aggregating of Hawkes processes. We present the random splitting schemes using the direct approach for counting processes, as well as the immigration–birth branching representations of Hawkes processes. From the second scheme, it is shown that random split Hawkes processes are again Hawkes. We discuss functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) for the scaled split processes from the different schemes. On the other hand, aggregating multivariate Hawkes processes may not necessarily be Hawkes. We identify a necessary and sufficient condition for the aggregated process to be Hawkes. We prove an FCLT for a multivariate Hawkes process under a random splitting and then aggregating scheme (under certain conditions, transforming into a Hawkes process of a different dimension).