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In this chapter, students learn about the levels of measurement that social scientists engage in when collecting data. The most common system for conceptualizing quantitative data was developed by Stevens, who defined four levels of data, which are (in ascending order of complexity) nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio-level data. Nominal data consist of mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories, which are then given an arbitrary number. Ordinal data have all of the qualities of nominal data, but the numbers in ordinal data also indicate rank order. Interval data are characterized by all the traits of nominal and ordinal data, but the spacing between numbers is equal across the entire length of the scale. Finally, ratio data are characterized by the presence of an absolute zero. Higher levels of data contain more information, although it is always possible to convert from one level of data to a lower level. It is not possible to convert data to a higher level than it was collected at. It is important to recognize the level of data because there are certain mathematical procedures that require certain levels of data. Social scientists who ignore the level of their data risk producing meaningless results or distorted statistics.
The chapter on visual models discusses basic ways that scientists create visual representations of their data, including charts and graphs, in order to understand their data better. Like all models, visual models are a simplified version of reality. Two of the visual models discussed in this chapter are the frequency table and histogram. The histogram, in particular, is useful in the shape of the distribution of data, skewness, kurtosis, and the number of peaks. Other visual models in the social sciences include frequency polygons, bar graphs, stem-and-leaf plots, line graphs, pie charts, and scatterplots. All of these visual models help researchers understand their data in different ways, though none is perfect for all situations. Modern technology has resulted in the creation of new ways to visualize data. These methods are more complex, but they provide data analysts with new insights into their data. The incorporation of geographic data, animations, and interactive tools give people more options than ever existed in previous eras.
When the dependent variable consists of nominal data, it is necessary to conduct a χ2 test, of which there are two types in this chapter: the one-variable χ2 test and the two-variable χ2 test. The former procedure tests the null hypothesis that each group formed by the independent variable is equal to a hypothesized proportion. The two-variable χ2 test has the null hypothesis that the two variables are uncorrelated. Both procedures use the same eight steps as all NHSTs.
The effect sizes for χ2 tests are the odds ratio (for both χ2 tests) and the relative risk (for the two-variable χ2 test). When these effect sizes equal to 1.0, the outcome of interest is equally likely for both groups. When these effect sizes are greater than 1.0, the outcome of interest is more likely for the non-baseline group. When these values are less than 1.0, the outcome of interest is more likely for the baseline group. However, odds ratio and relative risk values are not interchangeable. When there are more than two groups or two outcomes, calculating an effect size requires either (1) calculating more than one odds ratio, or (2) combining groups together.
Blood-side resistance to oxygen transport in extracorporeal membrane blood oxygenators (MBO) depends on fluid mechanics governing the laminar flow in very narrow channels, particularly the hemodynamics controlling the cell free layer (CFL) built-up at solid/blood interfaces. The CFL thickness constitutes a barrier to oxygen transport from the membrane towards the erythrocytes. Interposing hemicylindrical CFL disruptors in animal blood flows inside rectangular microchannels, surrogate systems of MBO mimicking their hemodynamics, proved to be effective in reducing (ca. 20%) such thickness (desirable for MBO to increase oxygen transport rates to the erythrocytes). The blockage ratio (non-dimensional measure of the disruptor penetration into the flow) increase is also effective in reducing CFL thickness (ca. 10–20%), but at the cost of risking clot formation (undesirable for MBO) for disruptors with penetration lengths larger than their radius, due to large residence times of erythrocytes inside a low-velocity CFL formed at the disruptor/wall edge.
A tight Hamilton cycle in a k-uniform hypergraph (k-graph) G is a cyclic ordering of the vertices of G such that every set of k consecutive vertices in the ordering forms an edge. Rödl, Ruciński and Szemerédi proved that for $k\ge 3$, every k-graph on n vertices with minimum codegree at least $n/2+o(n)$ contains a tight Hamilton cycle. We show that the number of tight Hamilton cycles in such k-graphs is ${\exp(n\ln n-\Theta(n))}$. As a corollary, we obtain a similar estimate on the number of Hamilton ${\ell}$-cycles in such k-graphs for all ${\ell\in\{0,\ldots,k-1\}}$, which makes progress on a question of Ferber, Krivelevich and Sudakov.
This chapter covers fundamental information that students must know in order to correctly conduct and interpret statistical analyses. The first section discusses why students in the social sciences need to learn statistics. The second section is a primer on the basics of research design, including the nature of research hypotheses and research questions, the difference between experimental and correlational research, and how descriptive statistics and inferential statistics serve different purposes. These foundational concepts are necessary to understand the rest of the textbook.
The final section of the chapter discusses the essential characteristics of models. Every statistical procedure creates a model of the data. Models are simplified versions of the world that make reality easier to understand. Fundamentally, all models are wrong, but the goal of scientists is to create models that are useful in explaining processes, making predictions, and building understanding of phenomena. The lesson distinguishes between theories, theoretical models, statistical models, and visual models so that students are equipped to deal with these concepts in later chapters.
Traffic congestion across the world has reached chronic levels. Despite many technological disruptions, one of the most fundamental and widely used functions within traffic modeling, the volume–delay function has seen little in the way of change since it was developed in the 1960s. Traditionally macroscopic methods have been employed to relate traffic volume to vehicular journey time. The general nature of these functions enables their ease of use and gives widespread applicability. However, they lack the ability to consider individual road characteristics (i.e., geometry, presence of traffic furniture, road quality, and surrounding environment). This research investigates the feasibility to reconstruct the model using two different data sources, namely the traffic speed from Google Maps’ Directions Application Programming Interface (API) and traffic volume data from automated traffic counters (ATC). Google’s traffic speed data are crowd-sourced from the smartphone Global Positioning System (GPS) of road users, able to reflect real-time, context-specific traffic condition of a road. On the other hand, the ATCs enable the harvesting of the vehicle volume data over equally fine temporal resolutions (hourly or less). By combining them for different road types in London, new context-specific volume–delay functions can be generated. This method shows promise in selected locations with the generation of robust functions. In other locations, it highlights the need to better understand other influencing factors, such as the presence of on-road parking or weather events.
A machine learning approach to zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression is introduced to address common difficulty arising from imbalanced financial data. The suggested ZIP can be interpreted as an adaptive weight adjustment procedure that removes the need for post-modeling re-calibration and results in a substantial enhancement of predictive accuracy. Notwithstanding the increased complexity due to the expanded parameter set, we utilize a cyclic coordinate descent optimization to implement the ZIP regression, with adjustments made to address saddle points. We also study how various approaches alleviate the potential drawbacks of incomplete exposures in insurance applications. The procedure is tested on real-life data. We demonstrate a significant improvement in performance relative to other popular alternatives, which justifies our modeling techniques.