We derive a sufficient condition for a sparse random matrix with given numbers of non-zero entries in the rows and columns having full row rank. The result covers both matrices over finite fields with independent non-zero entries and $\{0,1\}$-matrices over the rationals. The sufficient condition is generally necessary as well.

This paper studies a bi-dimensional compound risk model with quasi-asymptotically independent and consistently varying-tailed random numbers of claims and establishes an asymptotic formula for the finite-time sum-ruin probability. Additionally, some results related to tail probabilities of random sums are presented, which are of significant interest in their own right. Some numerical studies are carried out to check the accuracy of the asymptotic formula.

We propose a systematic design approach for the precast concrete industry to promote sustainable construction practices. By employing a holistic optimization procedure, we combine the concrete mixture design and structural simulations in a joint, forward workflow that we ultimately seek to invert. In this manner, new mixtures beyond standard ranges can be considered. Any design effort should account for the presence of uncertainties which can be aleatoric or epistemic as when data are used to calibrate physical models or identify models that fill missing links in the workflow. Inverting the causal relations established poses several challenges especially when these involve physics-based models which more often than not, do not provide derivatives/sensitivities or when design constraints are present. To this end, we advocate Variational Optimization, with proposed extensions and appropriately chosen heuristics to overcome the aforementioned challenges. The proposed approach to treat the design process as a workflow, learn the missing links from data/models, and finally perform global optimization using the workflow is transferable to several other materials, structural, and mechanical problems. In the present work, the efficacy of the method is exemplarily illustrated using the design of a precast concrete beam with the objective to minimize the global warming potential while satisfying a number of constraints associated with its load-bearing capacity after 28 days according to the Eurocode, the demolding time as computed by a complex nonlinear finite element model, and the maximum temperature during the hydration.

Given a family of graphs $\mathcal{F}$ and an integer $r$, we say that a graph is $r$-Ramsey for $\mathcal{F}$ if any $r$-colouring of its edges admits a monochromatic copy of a graph from $\mathcal{F}$. The threshold for the classic Ramsey property, where $\mathcal{F}$ consists of one graph, in the binomial random graph was located in the celebrated work of Rödl and Ruciński.

In this paper, we offer a twofold generalisation to the Rödl–Ruciński theorem. First, we show that the list-colouring version of the property has the same threshold. Second, we extend this result to finite families $\mathcal{F}$, where the threshold statements might also diverge. This also confirms further special cases of the Kohayakawa–Kreuter conjecture. Along the way, we supply a short(-ish), self-contained proof of the $0$-statement of the Rödl–Ruciński theorem.

Novel prediction methods should always be compared to a baseline to determine their performance. Without this frame of reference, the performance score of a model is basically meaningless. What does it mean when a model achieves an $F_1$ of 0.8 on a test set? A proper baseline is, therefore, required to evaluate the ‘goodness’ of a performance score. Comparing results with the latest state-of-the-art model is usually insightful. However, being state-of-the-art is dynamic, as newer models are continuously developed. Contrary to an advanced model, it is also possible to use a simple dummy classifier. However, the latter model could be beaten too easily, making the comparison less valuable. Furthermore, most existing baselines are stochastic and need to be computed repeatedly to get a reliable expected performance, which could be computationally expensive. We present a universal baseline method for all binary classification models, named the Dutch Draw (DD). This approach weighs simple classifiers and determines the best classifier to use as a baseline. Theoretically, we derive the DD baseline for many commonly used evaluation measures and show that in most situations it reduces to (almost) always predicting either zero or one. Summarizing, the DD baseline is general, as it is applicable to any binary classification problem; simple, as it can be quickly determined without training or parameter tuning; and informative, as insightful conclusions can be drawn from the results. The DD baseline serves two purposes. First, it is a robust and universal baseline that enables comparisons across research papers. Second, it provides a sanity check during the prediction model’s development process. When a model does not outperform the DD baseline, it is a major warning sign.

Generalized Poisson (GP) distribution was introduced in Consul & Jain ((1973). Technometrics, 15(4), 791–799.). Since then it has found various applications in actuarial science and other areas. In this paper, we focus on the distributional properties of GP and its related distributions. In particular, we study the distributional properties of distributions in the $\mathcal{H}$ family, which includes GP and generalized negative binomial distributions as special cases. We demonstrate that the moment and size-biased transformations of distributions within the $\mathcal{H}$ family remain in the same family, which significantly extends the results presented in Ambagaspitiya & Balakrishnan ((1994). ASTINBulletin: the Journal of the IAA, 24(2), 255–263.) and Ambagaspitiya ((1995). Insurance Mathematics and Economics, 2(16), 107–127.). Such findings enable us to provide recursive formulas for evaluating risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk and conditional tail expectation of the compound GP distributions. In addition, we show that the risk measures can be calculated by making use of transform methods, such as fast Fourier transform. In fact, the transformation method showed a remarkable time advantage over the recursive method. We numerically compare the risk measures of the compound sums when the primary distributions are Poisson and GP. The results illustrate the model risk for the loss frequency distribution.

We present a new explicit formula for the determinant that contains superexponentially fewer terms than the usual Leibniz formula. As an immediate corollary of our formula, we show that the tensor rank of the $n \times n$ determinant tensor is no larger than the $n$-th Bell number, which is much smaller than the previously best-known upper bounds when $n \geq 4$. Over fields of non-zero characteristic we obtain even tighter upper bounds, and we also slightly improve the known lower bounds. In particular, we show that the $4 \times 4$ determinant over ${\mathbb{F}}_2$ has tensor rank exactly equal to $12$. Our results also improve upon the best-known upper bound for the Waring rank of the determinant when $n \geq 17$, and lead to a new family of axis-aligned polytopes that tile ${\mathbb{R}}^n$.

We consider two continuous-time generalizations of conservative random walks introduced in Englander and Volkov (2022), an orthogonal and a spherically symmetrical one; the latter model is also known as random flights. For both models, we show the transience of the walks when $d\ge 2$ and that the rate of direction changing follows a power law $t^{-\alpha}$, $0<\alpha\le 1$, or the law $(\!\ln t)^{-\beta}$ where $\beta>2$.

Mildly explosive autoregressions have been extensively employed in recent theoretical and applied econometric work to model the phenomenon of asset market bubbles. An important issue in this context concerns the construction of confidence intervals for the autoregressive parameter that represents the degree of explosiveness. Existing studies rely on intervals that are justified only under conditional homoskedasticity/heteroskedasticity. This paper studies the problem of constructing asymptotically valid confidence intervals in a mildly explosive autoregression where the innovations are allowed to be unconditionally heteroskedastic. The assumed variance process is general and can accommodate both deterministic and stochastic volatility specifications commonly adopted in the literature. Within this framework, we show that the standard heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent estimate of the long-run variance converges in distribution to a nonstandard random variable that depends on nuisance parameters. Notwithstanding this result, the corresponding t-statistic is shown to still possess a standard normal limit distribution. To improve the quality of inference in small samples, we propose a dependent wild bootstrap-t procedure and establish its asymptotic validity under relatively weak conditions. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our recommended approach performs favorably in finite samples relative to existing methods across a wide range of volatility specifications. Applications to international stock price indices and U.S. house prices illustrate the relevance of the advocated method in practice.

We review criteria for comparing the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with respect to the asymptotic variance of estimates of expectations of functions of state, and show how such criteria can justify ways of combining improvements to MCMC methods. We say that a chain on a finite state space with transition matrix P efficiency-dominates one with transition matrix Q if for every function of state it has lower (or equal) asymptotic variance. We give elementary proofs of some previous results regarding efficiency dominance, leading to a self-contained demonstration that a reversible chain with transition matrix P efficiency-dominates a reversible chain with transition matrix Q if and only if none of the eigenvalues of $Q-P$ are negative. This allows us to conclude that modifying a reversible MCMC method to improve its efficiency will also improve the efficiency of a method that randomly chooses either this or some other reversible method, and to conclude that improving the efficiency of a reversible update for one component of state (as in Gibbs sampling) will improve the overall efficiency of a reversible method that combines this and other updates. It also explains how antithetic MCMC can be more efficient than independent and identically distributed sampling. We also establish conditions that can guarantee that a method is not efficiency-dominated by any other method.

Daisies are a special type of hypergraph introduced by Bollobás, Leader and Malvenuto. An $r$-daisy determined by a pair of disjoint sets $K$ and $M$ is the $(r+|K|)$-uniform hypergraph $\{K\cup P\,{:}\, P\in M^{(r)}\}$. Bollobás, Leader and Malvenuto initiated the study of Turán type density problems for daisies. This paper deals with Ramsey numbers of daisies, which are natural generalisations of classical Ramsey numbers. We discuss upper and lower bounds for the Ramsey number of $r$-daisies and also for special cases where the size of the kernel is bounded.

A $(k+r)$-uniform hypergraph $H$ on $(k+m)$ vertices is an $(r,m,k)$-daisy if there exists a partition of the vertices $V(H)=K\cup M$ with $|K|=k$, $|M|=m$ such that the set of edges of $H$ is all the $(k+r)$-tuples $K\cup P$, where $P$ is an $r$-tuple of $M$. We obtain an $(r-2)$-iterated exponential lower bound to the Ramsey number of an $(r,m,k)$-daisy for $2$-colours. This matches the order of magnitude of the best lower bounds for the Ramsey number of a complete $r$-graph.

We investigate the list packing number of a graph, the least $k$ such that there are always $k$ disjoint proper list-colourings whenever we have lists all of size $k$ associated to the vertices. We are curious how the behaviour of the list packing number contrasts with that of the list chromatic number, particularly in the context of bounded degree graphs. The main question we pursue is whether every graph with maximum degree $\Delta$ has list packing number at most $\Delta +1$. Our results highlight the subtleties of list packing and the barriers to, for example, pursuing a Brooks’-type theorem for the list packing number.

This research employs a vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to explore the volatility and dynamic interactions between stock, commodity, and cryptocurrency markets. It focuses on the returns of the S&P 500, gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin to analyse their interconnections. Our results indicate that Bitcoin returns positively affect S&P 500 and crude oil, but negatively impact gold. Conversely, crude oil returns have a positive influence on gold but lead to decreased returns for Bitcoin and the S&P 500. Similarly, higher gold returns correspond to increased returns in crude oil and S&P 500 but decreased returns in Bitcoin. The rise of the S&P 500 negatively influences Bitcoin and crude oil returns, while gold returns remain unaffected. However, these relationships exhibit weak and limited strength. Including these assets in a portfolio can help risk mitigation, as Bitcoin diversifies crude oil, gold, and S&P 500, and crude oil diversifies S&P 500. These findings contribute to our understanding of global financial dynamics and inform decision-making in risk assessment, portfolio management, risk mitigation, and diversification strategies.

Attrition is monotonic when agents leaving multi-period studies do not return. Under a general missing at random (MAR) assumption, we study efficiency in estimation of parameters defined by moment restrictions on the distributions of the counterfactuals that were unrealized due to monotonic attrition. We discuss novel issues related to overidentification, usability of sample units, and the information content of various MAR assumptions for estimation of such parameters. We propose a standard doubly robust estimator for these parameters by equating to zero the sample analog of their respective efficient influence functions. Our proposed estimator performs well and vastly outperforms other estimators in our simulation experiment and empirical illustration.

We consider a causal structure with endogeneity, i.e., unobserved confoundedness, where an instrumental variable is available. In this setting, we show that the mean social welfare function can be identified and represented via the marginal treatment effect as the operator kernel. This representation result can be applied to a variety of statistical decision rules for treatment choice, including plug-in rules, Bayes rules, and empirical welfare maximization rules. Focusing on the application of the empirical welfare maximization framework, we provide convergence rates of the worst-case average welfare loss (regret).

The system signature is a useful tool for studying coherent systems. For a given coherent system, various methods have been proposed in the literature to compute its signature. However, when any system signature is given, the literature does not address how to construct the corresponding coherent system(s). In this article we propose an algorithm to address this research gap. This algorithm enables the validation of whether a provided probability vector qualifies as a signature. If it does, the algorithm proceeds to generate the corresponding coherent system(s). To illustrate the applicability of this algorithm, we consider all three and four-dimensional probability vectors, verify if they are signatures, and finally obtain 5 and 20 coherent systems, respectively, which coincides with the literature (Shaked and Suarez-Llorens 2003).

Previous approaches to modelling interval-censored data have often relied on assumptions of homogeneity in the sense that the censoring mechanism, the underlying distribution of occurrence times, or both, are assumed to be time-invariant. In this work, we introduce a model which allows for non-homogeneous behaviour in both cases. In particular, we outline a censoring mechanism based on a non-homogeneous alternating renewal process in which interval generation is assumed to be time-dependent, and we propose a Markov point process model for the underlying occurrence time distribution. We prove the existence of this process and derive the conditional distribution of the occurrence times given the intervals. We provide a framework within which the process can be accurately modelled, and subsequently compare our model to the homogeneous approach through a number of illustrative examples.

We propose a method for cutting down a random recursive tree that focuses on its higher-degree vertices. Enumerate the vertices of a random recursive tree of size n according to the decreasing order of their degrees; namely, let $(v^{(i)})_{i=1}^{n}$ be such that $\deg(v^{(1)}) \geq \cdots \geq \deg (v^{(n)})$. The targeted vertex-cutting process is performed by sequentially removing vertices $v^{(1)}, v^{(2)}, \ldots, v^{(n)}$ and keeping only the subtree containing the root after each removal. The algorithm ends when the root is picked to be removed. The total number of steps for this procedure, $K_n$, is upper bounded by $Z_{\geq D}$, which denotes the number of vertices that have degree at least as large as the degree of the root. We prove that $\ln Z_{\geq D}$ grows as $\ln n$ asymptotically and obtain its limiting behavior in probability. Moreover, we obtain that the kth moment of $\ln Z_{\geq D}$ is proportional to $(\!\ln n)^k$. As a consequence, we obtain that the first-order growth of $K_n$ is upper bounded by $n^{1-\ln 2}$, which is substantially smaller than the required number of removals if, instead, the vertices were selected uniformly at random.